Category Archives: Football

Here are the results from last week:

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine held to form, hitting just over 50% overall but nailing the high-confidence games and the sweet spot. The actual numbers: 22-21 (51.16%) overall, 12-2 (85.71%) in Category 2, and 5-0 (100%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 171-149 (53.44%) in Category 1, 68-57 (54.40%) in Category 2, and 32-28 (53.33%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 23-20 (53.49%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 18-24-1 (43%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 165-150-6 (52.3%). Against our spreads, it was 21-22 (48.84%) for the week and is 181-139 (56.56%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 12 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 12 Picks

According to that, which uses the opening spreads for the week, there are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:

• Tennessee at Auburn (Auburn -11.5) (ugh)
• Washington State at Stanford (Washington State +1.5)
• Liberty at North Carolina State (Liberty +3)
• Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana +19.5)

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 36-12 (75%) overall, 11-6 (64.71%) in Category 2, and 4-4 (50%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 149-128 (53.79%) in Category 1, 56-55 (50.45%) in Category 2, and 27-28 (49.09%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 29-17 (63.04%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 31-16-1 (65.95%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 147-126-5 (53.85%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 32-16 (66.67%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 11of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 11 Picks

Below are the machine’s picks this week.

According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Beware, though, that the sweet spot that has done so well the past several years has shifted just a bit this year. So far in 2020, the sweet spot has shifted from between 9 and 14 (points away from the Vegas opening spread) to between 11 and 15. If we’d been using 11-15 all season, the Category 3 games would be 25-16 (60.98%) instead of just under 50%. I’m wary of introducing a moving target into the equation, though, so we’ll continue tracking 9-14. Also, the lines obviously move by Thursday of each week when I post this, and the sweet spot, of course, moves with them.

Bottom line, the games the SPM feels best about as of the time I’m drafting this (just before Wednesday evening’s games), both because they are currently in the sweet spot and because SP+ agrees, are these:

• Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (Central Michigan -6.5)
• Baylor at Texas Tech (Baylor +1.5)
• Colorado at Stanford (Colorado +6.5)

What are you favorite games this week?

In the third quarter against Alabama, Jarrett Guarantano hit Jalin Hyatt for 48 yards down the sideline. It should’ve been more, but he was ruled out of bounds.

That’s the only play of 40+ yards the Vols have all year.

Mike Leach and Mississippi State have two. Kentucky and Vanderbilt have three. It goes all the way up to Alabama and Ole Miss, who have ten each.

Not only do the Vols struggle to hit home runs, they struggle to get on base. Here’s a look at big plays in SEC games from the Tennessee offense the last five years, in 10 yard increments broken down per game:

Tennessee’s offense wasn’t lights out last season, but they could hit home runs between Jennings, Callaway, and some longer runs from Ty Chandler and Eric Gray that just haven’t been there so far this season. This time around, the Vols struggle with just 10+ yard plays, essentially matching the per game average of the woeful 2017 offense, and the 2018 group that ran fewer plays than any team in college football.

Even with Jim Chaney, perhaps a defense-first head coach like Jeremy Pruitt is never going to live by the big play. But SEC football has changed so fast around him, it feels like Tennessee is getting left behind. Before we even talk about what a good job by the defense would be against a team like Texas A&M or Auburn, we need some baseline understanding of how many points the offense would need to score just to have a chance.

Last year in conference play, Tennessee averaged 20 points per game. Again, not great, but not terrible considering 37.5% of our SEC games are Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. At 20 points per game, the Vols finished ninth in scoring in league play. Ole Miss came in fifth at 26 points per game.

This year, with everything being conference play, Tennessee is holding that average at 20.7 points per game, obviously boosted by the first two weeks of the season. In 2020, that’s only good for 12th in the SEC. Now the top half of the league averages at least 28 points per game, with what feels like a break between Auburn at #7 (28.3) and South Carolina at #8 (24.8). The non-Vanderbilt teams left on our schedule are averaging 28.3, 33.3 and 42.4 points per game, all vs SEC defenses.

One more note here: in offensive SP+ rating, the Vols are 97th nationally at 24.2 (points per game against the average defense). If you look at every Tennessee offense in SP+ since 2005, those 24.2 projected points per game in 2020 rank the same as the Clawfense’s 19.3 projected points per game in 2008:

Pruitt and his staff may not want to die via turnovers, whether interceptions downfield or the quarterback getting hit more often waiting for guys to get open. But if the Vols can’t land more explosive plays, I’m not sure there’s any other way to live.

The Vols’ game against Texas A&M scheduled for this Saturday has been postponed and re-scheduled for December 12. Alabama-LSU, Auburn-Mississippi State, and Georgia-Missouri have all been postponed as well. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything to watch this weekend. Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. As always, a list curated just for Vols fans comes first, with the full searchable schedule for the entire week following at the bottom of the post.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020 – Friday, November 13, 2020

There are games every night this week, starting tonight, and these are the ones we deem most worth watching. Mostly, it’s just “it’s football” games, but Friday does feature Iowa-Minnesota and Top 10 (!) Cincinnati.

Gameday, November 14, 2020

The Vols’ game against Texas A&M kicks off at 3:30 on ESPN. Prior to that, there is a noon SEC appetizer, with future opponent Vanderbilt taking on Kentucky on the SEC Network.

The evening slate features South Carolina traveling to Ole Miss at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

UPDATE: The Tennessee-Texas A&M game has been postponed until December 12. We’ll leave this here for contemplation but re-run the numbers the week before the game.

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Texas A&M Aggies. The Vols better be up for a challenge this weekend, as the Aggies appear to have advantages all over the place.

On offense, Tennessee is going to need to make the most of first downs to stay out of third-and-long situations, and they’ll likely need to do it with a safe passing game, as rushing yards may be hard to come by.

On defense, the team is going to have its hands full against a very good passing-oriented offensive attack that is lethal on third down and particularly well-suited to have a good day against a Tennessee defense struggling mightily on third down. Expect the Vols to roll out a bend-and-hope-we-don’t-also-break game plan, utilizing nickel and dime packages most of the day and being thrifty about sending extra rushers against an offensive line good at preventing sacks.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

If only we can get to fourth down! 🙂

Seriously, though, the only real opportunity looks to be on first downs. Team passing efficiency is basically a push as well, but most everything else leans toward the Aggies.

Where’s the danger?

Apart from A&M basically just being better on defense than the Vols are on offense, the biggest challenges are going to be running the ball, third downs (gulp), and not throwing interceptions.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Make the most of first downs. Pass the ball, but don’t get reckless through the air, and stay out of third-and-long situations (gulp).

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s defense is stronger than its offense, but it’s not as strong as A&M’s offense, which appears to have an advantage everywhere you look. The biggest monster here? Third downs, where the Aggies are No. 2 in the nation and will be going against a defense that ranks No. 103rd in that category. Generally speaking, the strength of A&M’s offense is its passing attack.

Where’s the opportunity?

If only we can get them to fourth down! 🙂

As I said above, the Aggies’ offense appears to have every advantage. The smallest of those advantages? Interceptions, rushing.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Coach up that secondary and that defensive line. Play nickel or dime. Get as much pressure on the quarterback as you can, but be selective on blitzes, because they’re really good at not allowing sacks, so sending extra guys may be wasted effort. Use those guys to keep all receivers in front of you. This may be a bend-don’t-break Saturday.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols are pretty good on special teams, but so are the Aggies, mostly. Perhaps Tennessee can pick up some extra yards on kickoff returns.

The kickers appear about equal, with Seth Small 4-5 on the season and Brent Cimaglia 4-6, but with a couple of longer kicks on his resume so far.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Both Tennessee and Texas A&M are about as likely to commit penalties. A&M appears to be a little less turnover-prone. There could be some hidden yards and opportunities if the Vols are able to limit penalties, and turnovers could decide the game if they start bouncing the Vols’ way.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link. If it still looks bad, that’s because of the data that’s in it. 🙂

Currently in the Top 30: There is no green here.

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing was in the Top 30 last week.

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing got better this week, so . . .

Currently in the Bottom 30: 3rd down conversion percentage, total offense, passing offense, scoring offense, team passing efficiency, passing yards per completion, passes had intercepted

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week.

Currently in the Bottom 30: 3rd down conversion percentage defense, team passing efficiency defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Blocked kicks allowed, blocked punts allowed, punt return defense, kickoff returns, net punting

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Punt returns

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Currently in the Bottom 30: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Fumbles recovered

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Currently in the Bottom 30: Turnovers lost

Our church has been meeting online and at a minor league baseball stadium the past however many weeks now. We’ve been talking about the wilderness a lot, starting right after Easter, because I think there’s plenty in our current experience that feels at home there. Probably more than we’d like.

It’s been a metaphor I and many others have used for Tennessee going on more than a decade now. This is on pace to be the 13th year the Vols have struggled, in one form or another. But those first couple, you didn’t think we’d have to spend too much time there. For me, it wasn’t until Lane Kiffin left and we replaced him with Derek Dooley that I really thought, “Okay, this is going to take a minute to get figured out.”

Not a while, back then. A minute. A bit, maybe. A year, maybe two, no wait Tyler Bray is awesome, etc.

Then when it didn’t work with Dooley, you knew whoever was next was going to take a few years, at least three. That turned out to be the right calculation, actually, or at least it should’ve been. We could see the Promised Land from 2015 and 2016, we just didn’t get in.

Then when it all fell apart with Butch Jones, we went to a very vulnerable place between John Currie and Greg Schiano, but came out of it with Phillip Fulmer, which at least made me feel better. We knew the day it happened that saying no to Schiano in such a fashion would set the short-term back, not forward. But we appreciated that, in hiring Jeremy Pruitt, it didn’t feel like a move made in the name of damage control.

(Also, I know defending Fulmer is my thing, but for people saying he should get killed for this hire…who else were we getting after that mess? Mel Tucker just took a 49-7 L to Iowa. Kevin Steele hasn’t been hired by anyone else. Wasn’t Pruitt the best we were doing in that moment in time?)

And then we lost to Georgia State. But then it didn’t matter!

But now, it matters again.

You’re going to lose games, some of them badly in one way or another. The hope is you keep those losses far away from each other, and put enough winning between them to not allow those dots to be reasonably connected. Even when Tennessee was blown out by Kentucky earlier this year, there was a hope – especially after watching the first half of the Georgia game and really deep into the third quarter – that it was an isolated incident. Maybe not isolated for Guarantano, but for Tennessee’s progress, which wasn’t far enough down the road to avoid beat down by pick six.

But the way Tennessee struggled against Arkansas – the Vols didn’t just lose, they struggled – draws a line through a lot of things. Reasonably so.

Big picture, these things remain true:

• Tennessee’s talent level has improved and is improving, especially since 2017.
• But it’s not improving nearly as fast as what’s happened at Florida and Georgia since then.
• Tennessee’s SP+ rating is currently lower than at the end of any season since the rating’s inception in 2005.

The Vols are getting better players, but not at the same rate as their biggest rivals – not just Alabama, but Florida and Georgia. The Vols are trying to chase down the rest of the top half of the SEC doing a less talented version of what a lot of them are doing. And right now, the on-field product is as bad or worse, play-for-play, than anything we’ve seen.

We can throw around, “This is the worst I’ve ever seen,” a lot, and it’s usually wrong. But play-for-play, that might be true right now. In May, we compared Tennessee’s preseason SP+ rating to the way the Vols ended in each of the last 15 years, grouping them into tiers. The Vols had a 14.8 (points better than the average team) rating back then, making them most similar to the 2009, 2012, and 2016 (full-season edition) Vols. The common denominator there was having a real chance to win almost every Saturday, which was a good goal for 2020, we thought.

Instead, Tennessee plummeted to a 0.5 SP+ rating this week. In the last 15 years, only Butch Jones’ final season in 2017 comes close, and it’s at 1.2. The next lowest on the list is Jones’ first season at 5.1.

There’s losing to, or even getting blown out by, teams that are much better than you. There’s losing to Kentucky, maybe, as a fluke because you threw consecutive pick sixes. But play-for-play, Tennessee has simply been bad and very bad since halftime of the Georgia game. It’s mostly the offense’s problem, though the defense too is down from their preseason projections. But when you add “hard to watch” to these equations, they don’t get any easier to solve.

Back in the good old days of 2007, I wrote about how curiosity was becoming the dominant emotion with the Vols too often: “Let’s see what happens this week!”, instead of feeling like you should win every single Saturday the way we knew and loved for so long at Tennessee’s peak. But right now, it feels like the only curiosity left surrounds Harrison Bailey, who either can’t get in the game or can’t have the game plan set up to do anything other than hand off.

And sure, the world is super unfair right now. Bailey gets no spring practice and a bunch of contact tracing in the fall. Saturday night the SEC Network shared sentiments from Jeremy Pruitt on not wanting to play young kids before they were ready for fear that it might ruin them, and that he thinks that might be what happened with Jarrett Guarantano in 2017. I don’t love the comparison – JG was a redshirt freshman in 2017 and didn’t beat out Quinten Dormady in fall camp – and sure, maybe don’t give him his first start against Alabama. It’s an idea that might actually be true for Harrison Bailey, but the comparison with Guarantano is off by enough to make you question the entire logic. And if Guarantano can’t go against Texas A&M, I think at this point you clearly have to play Bailey no matter what.

So there’s curiosity about your quarterback, and then curiosity about whether the Vols can just keep it close. Tennessee opened as only a 12-point underdog, and it’s around two touchdowns in SP+ even with Tennessee rated so low. It would be the same against Auburn this week. Statistically, even at a low point, it doesn’t feel impossible. But in the eye test, and after so long, the gut test, it sure can feel that way.

If you’re chasing pageviews, maybe you slap Hugh Freeze’s name in the title up there. But because of the virus, I’m not sure there’s anything that could happen on the field – or even in recruiting – this season to cause Jeremy Pruitt to lose his job, or create significant turnover among the assistants. If the team that showed up against Kentucky and Arkansas – and failed to show up, in so many ways, in the second half – plays A&M, it’s going to lose by a lot more than 12-14 points no matter who’s playing quarterback. And then it’s going to lose that way to Auburn. And no matter what it does against Vanderbilt, least fun of all to Florida.

I do not know how a team that was so resilient in the back half of last year – not just winning six in a row, but playing from behind in every one of them that wasn’t UAB – seems to fold so fast this year. It carries a bit of Derek Dooley’s, “We don’t handle adversity well,” business, with that same silent acknowledgment from the listener that, in year three, whose fault is that?

We have played so many of these games before. And a stiff neck will not get you out of the wilderness any faster.

But perhaps it’s finally become the wrong metaphor. Because I’m afraid, no matter how bad it might get on the field, the virus is going to make it feel more like exile for a minute. Or maybe a bit. Who knows, because who knows where this virus is going. But, as we discussed on our podcast last night, that feels like the dominant question for Tennessee right now: “Where is this going?”, at a time when the virus may not let you go anywhere else.

What do you do in exile? Build houses and live in them, plant gardens and eat what they produce. Marry and have children. Multiply, do not decrease. Seek the welfare of the city you’ve been exiled to.

And, most painfully, don’t listen to the prophets who tell you this will all be over soon. For Tennessee, in the midst of this virus, I don’t know how realistic that possibility is.

All of that is the context for Jeremiah 29:11, in the six verses that precede it. “For surely I know the plans I have for you,” says the Lord, “plans for your welfare and not for harm, to give you a future with hope.” But sometimes those plans include a period of exile.

No matter how it feels, of course, we’ll still be here. Still trying to figure it out, still learning how to love this team well. Trying to be fruitful and multiply in a harsh season with no easy outs on the horizon. Curiosity, however much is left, will still beat apathy.

But I think one of the most valuable gifts in exile is honesty about the reality of one’s situation. No matter who ultimately leads Tennessee out of exile – Pruitt, Fulmer, someone else – or how long it takes, the first step will always be admitting you have a problem. It’s a gift to be able to acknowledge the reality of one’s situation, even when you like it so very little.

We need honesty. Honesty, and basketball.

Go Vols.