Expected Win Total Analysis: After Kentucky

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It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Kentucky on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

2020 SPM Season Predictions
Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3

Details: I have Alabama at 5%, Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (I’m at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

I poured out my heart in the slow-cooked post-game but didn’t draw any conclusion about how it impacted my assessment of the team. I think if they fix the turnovers, they’ll basically be okay but still not quite as good as I was hoping/expecting this season. Plus, I don’t know whether they can fix the turnover problem. So, I am not feeling nearly as good about the ability of Tennessee itself to do what we all want it to do the rest of the way. That’s going to result in lowering of expectations independent of what any other opponent did this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0, 1st in the SEC West

Although I did pick Georgia to finally win against Alabama Saturday night, I wasn’t surprised that the Tide pulled it out. I was, however, somewhat surprised that they also pulled away and won by 17. Shaking my head. I had this game at 25% last week, and I am depressed to inform you that I have now moved it down to 5%. Just like old times.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Ole Miss scored 48 points against Alabama two weeks ago but could only muster 21 against Arkansas. Let that sink in a minute. And remember — that loss to Auburn was a direct result of a bad call that would have changed the outcome of the game to give Arkansas the win. I had the Hogs at 60% last week but am now calling it a toss up at 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Mississippi State is a mess, but A&M still looked pretty good. There’s no shame in losing to Alabama. Mostly, it’s that win over Florida that makes these guys look good. My opinion of them hasn’t really changed, but I’m still moving this game from 45% to 40% just because I’m currently a bit deflated about the Vols themselves.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Auburn basically losing to Arkansas last week (but getting a W for it) and losing to South Carolina this week makes me feel a bit better about this game, but Bo Nix is going to be frustrating for our defense, which will be chasing him around all night. I would move them from 45% to a toss up, but with the Vols putting up a stinker as well, I’m keeping this one right where it is, especially because the loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that looked good against the Tigers but lost to Tennessee.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

Vandy didn’t play this week due to COVID. But because the Vols had a bad week, I’m moving this game from 90% to 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Florida’s game with LSU was also postponed due to COVID, but I’m moving this one from 20% to 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

See Auburn above. Although I’m feeling a bit better about Auburn, I’m also feeling a bit better about Tennessee having beaten South Carolina, because they looked really good.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 1-2, 6th in the SEC East

The Tigers’ game with Vandy was postponed due to COVID this week.

Georgia

Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East

See Alabama above. Georgia beating us by 23 and losing to Alabama by 17 is frightening.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-2, 3rrd in the SEC East

Hats off to the Wildcats for not only beating the Vols Saturday, but for making us look bad while doing it.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

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