Category Archives: Expected Win Totals

Tennessee lost its chance at the SEC East two weeks ago with a clunker against Missouri and then followed it up with another against Georgia Saturday. What remains is a regular-season closer against 0-7 Vanderbilt and a bowl game. Most are projecting a trip to the Gator Bowl against North Carolina or NC State. For those making Christmas plans, the Gator Bowl is in Jacksonville, Florida on December 29 at 2:00 p.m. Just remember, it’s not official yet.

For the record, here are the current SEC East standings.

Season Resume: Tennessee and Hat Guy

Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the Vanderbilt game.

The Alabama and Missouri games were essentially toss-ups that the Vols instead lost big. Florida remains the shocker, as the Vols were fairly heavy favorites heading into that loss. The Georgia game, well, Tennessee was expected to lose, just not expected to be so inept, especially on offense.

For the sake of posterity, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Austin Peay

Florida

UTSA

South Carolina

Texas A&M

Alabama

Kentucky

UConn

Missouri

Georgia

Tennessee got a step closer to regaining control of its own destiny in the SEC East as Arkansas did us the favor of giving the Florida Gators another loss this weekend. Missouri failed to pull off the upset against the Georgia Bulldogs, but there’s still one more chance for someone to help the Vols in that department this weekend. Meanwhile, Tennessee needs to take care of its own business in two tough games the next two weekends. Here are the current SEC East standings:

As of Week 11, here’s what needs to happen for the Vols to get to the top of that list:

1. Tennessee wins out. This would put the Vols at 6-2 in conference play. Georgia would have one loss, to the Vols.
2. Georgia loses to Ole Miss this weekend. Missouri couldn’t upset the Dawgs Saturday, but Lane Kiffin and the No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels come to town to try it this week. Georgia is an 11.5-point favorite. Hat Guy has the Dawgs as 10-point favorites, SP+ -13.5. That game is Saturday at 7:00 PM on ESPN.

Can Tennessee win out?

What are the odds of the Vols winning out? Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the possibilities.

Hat Guy has changed his mind three times about the Missouri game, but with the exception of one week, he’s always thought it was going to be close. Vegas currently has the Vols as 1- to 1.5-point favorites. Win a close one against the Tigers and have Ole Miss upset Georgia, and next week shapes up as a showdown for the SEC East. Georgia is still a heavy favorite in that one, but let’s get through this weekend and then get the Dawgs to Neyland and see what happens.

For reference, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers

Argh. I hate Florida. And the fact that we count cross-divisional games to determine divisional standings. Don’t worry — I’ll change my tune if Ole Miss comes through this weekend.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri

In classic good news/bad news, the Tigers played Georgia tough, meaning Georgia is not invulnerable to either Ole Miss or Tennessee, but also meaning that Missouri is going to be a difficult opponent for the Vols this week.

Georgia

Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Austin Peay

I know it’s FCS, but let’s give the Govs some credit here. They are probably better than UConn.

Florida

Honk if you would love to see the Gators finish the season with five losses.

UTSA

South Carolina

Texas A&M

Alabama

Kentucky

UConn

Tennessee’s meltdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday did some additional damage to the Vols’ SEC hopes. The Vols were 8.5-point underdogs, so for most of last week the loss wasn’t unexpected. A loss didn’t become unexpected until halftime, when the Vols went to the locker room ahead 20-7. The second half made the ultimate outcome especially disappointing. The real disappointment in the win/loss column, though, actually happened several weeks ago in the Swamp when the Vols lost to a Gators team as a 7-point favorite.

But all is not yet lost. Tennessee can still make the SEC championship game, provided they take care of business and get a little help along the way. Here are the current SEC East standings:

To get to the top of that list, here’s what needs to happen:

1. Tennessee wins out. This would put the Vols at 6-2 in conference play. Kentucky would have at least 3 losses; Missouri at least 2. Georgia would have 1 loss, to the Vols.
2. Florida loses two more games. Florida still has Georgia (this weekend), LSU, and Missouri on the schedule. Right now, Hat Guy has the Gators as 15-point dogs to Georgia and 10-point dogs to LSU and Missouri. As underdogs in all three, they could certainly lose at least two.
3. Georgia loses another game in addition to losing to Tennessee. This is the most unlikely to happen. Forgetting Tennessee for a moment, Georgia still has to play Florida in a rivalry game this weekend, No. 16 Missouri, and No. 12 Ole Miss. Right now, Hat Guy has the Dawgs as 15-point favorites over Florida, 10-point favorites over Missouri, and 12-point favorites over Ole Miss. The Missouri and Ole Miss games are at home, but the Florida game is, as always, at a neutral site. The Vols need one of those teams to pull off the upset.

Can Tennessee win out?

If the Vols don’t win out in the SEC, nothing else will matter. Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the possibilities.

Straight up, Hat Guy was very wrong about the Florida game and wrong about the Alabama game in the second half. Other than that, though, he’s been pretty spot on. In the last four SEC games, he currently likes the Vols against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, Missouri by a field goal, and Georgia by 9. Our hope on the question of whether the Vols can win out is pinned out first doing what they should, then winning a close one against the Tigers, and finally, Neyland Stadium.

For reference, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky

DNP.

UConn

Missouri

Having increased their record to 7-1 (3-1) with a win over South Carolina last weekend, Missouri will play Georgia next after a bye this weekend. I’m interested to see how that game impacts the comps and Hat Guy’s prediction of the Tigers-Vols game.

Georgia

DNP.

Vanderbilt

DNP.

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Austin Peay

Florida

Florida finding their rhythm is classic good news/bad news. On one side of the ledger, it makes Tennessee’s loss to them look better and increases the odds that they could give Georgia that extrar loss we’re looking for. On the other side, it decreases the odds that they will lose two more games like we need them to.

UTSA

South Carolina

Texas A&M

DNP.

Alabama

Digging through the archives a few days ago, I happily ran across a reminder that I once dreamed that Nick Saban showed me up on the cornet with a rousing rendition of Delta Dawn. That would be Exhibit 1 in the case alleging that Nick Saban is in my head. That particular dream has absolutely nothing to do with this post unless I can call back to it with something witty at the end. We’ll see. But Google’s not going to like me leading with it. And while I’m on the subject, just how smart can all of these artificial intelligence bots be if they’re using the internet for source material? And if we’re going to end up in an existential war with the AI bots, shouldn’t we start the disinformation campaign now? Couldn’t we just start feeding the bots really stupid stuff? I’m sure we could find some junk food in here somewhere. Yo, Google and all of your AI homies, I know you primarily analyze the slug, the headline, and this paragraph to determine the meaning of the entire post. Good luck with that.

Anyway, this morning, I’m upset with Hat Guy, who at this point is not so bullish on the rest of this 2023 season. The following shows each game on Tennessee’s schedule along with any pre-game projections from Hat Guy and, if the game has already been played, the score of the game. Some projections are missing because they’ve been overwritten. Cover your eyes.

Really, Hat Guy? Only two more wins, against UConn and Vandy? An underdog to Missouri? A touchdown dog to Kentucky and a two-TD dog to Texas A&M after the bye and the week after they play Alabama? All that facepaint must finally be seeping into your brain.

We’ve not been keeping tabs on expected win totals this year, but here’s a look at where the Vols and their future and prior opponents currently stand.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols’ future opponents

Texas A&M

Alabama

We’re going to get answers about both Texas A&M and Alabama this Saturday when they face each other at 3:30 on CBS. Each of the teams is fine with only a single loss to a presumably really good team. The rest of the slate for each of them? Eh. Not sure. It does look to me like Alabama is about finished molting.

Kentucky

Yikes. That’s a lot of green for our Big Blue friends and enemies. Of course, that’s a lot of bad opponents, too. But they did beat Florida. But it was at home in Lexington. But our game against them is also there. A lot of green, a lot of bad opponents, and a lot of buts. We’ll know more after they play at Georgia this week.

UConn

Missouri

Most of the stuff I said up there about Kentucky can also be said of Missouri. A lot of green, but against questionable opponents. We’ll learn more about the Tigers native to Missouri this week when they host the Tigers that apparently prowl the Louisiana bayous.

Georgia

I’m looking at that South Carolina comp like a cat pretending to ignore a new toy, wondering whether to give in to my desire to trust it.

Vanderbilt

Oof.

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Also oof.

Austin Peay

I know the Governors are an FCS team, but they know how to score points and play defense. Go Govs.

Florida

No like.

UTSA

South Carolina

Who knows how good these guys are or aren’t. Three losses, but to (hopefully!) good teams.

I wonder if they know Delta Dawn.

No, that didn’t work. But it was stupid, so maybe I’ve done my part in the coming war against the machines.

Here’s how our community expectations are looking as of the Friday before the Vols take on Florida:

We’ll open the thing back up for submissions the Sunday after the game.

The 2020 GRT Expected Win Total Machine

After another week of sitting on the sofa and watching other teams play, here’s the record of what went down and how it might impact the Vols the rest of the way. As always, you can log your own expectations with the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

A little improvement this week. Let’s see why.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is 3.1.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
• After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
• After the bye week: 4.0
• After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
• After the A&M postponement bye: 2.95
• After the loss to Auburn: 2.8

Details: Some slight movement this week over last: Florida from 5% to 10%, Texas A&M from 15% to 20%, and Vanderbilt from 60% to 80%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5, 4th in the SEC East

The game against Vanderbilt was bumped in favor of maximizing the odds that all 14 SEC teams can still play 10 games this season. It’s not showing on ESPN’s scheduling page, but it’s probably safe to assume that the plan is to reschedule Vanderbilt for December 19.

The Vols’ future opponents

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1, 1st in the SEC East

So this is odd. The Gators’ offense was steamrolling teams . . . but has gotten slightly worse against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. It’s not like they’re struggling to score points or anything, it’s just that they don’t look quite as invincible as they did a few short weeks ago. But all of that still only explains a revision of the SPM projected margin from 33 points to 29. I’m bumping this game from 5% to 10%. Woo.

Texas A&M

Current record: 6-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Same. Rolling right along, but only put up 20 points against LSU this week. That result was good for a revision of basically a touchdown to the SPM projected margin, from 29 points to 22. And yes, that’s still three touchdowns. Moving this one from 15% to 20%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-8, 7th in the SEC East

Um, wonky warning. The Vols went from 16-points in the SPM to only 12 against Vanderbilt in a week where Tennessee didn’t play and Vanderbilt lost to Missouri 41-0. That made me shake my head, so I ran the game through the SPM with all of the detail switched on to see why it was arriving at that conclusion. All it did was wink at me. I’m assigning a shrug emoji to this one and moving the game from 60% to 80% in defiance of the machine.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-7, 6th in the SEC East

Looks about right.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Georgia

Current record: 6-2, 2nd in the SEC East