Tennessee’s meltdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday did some additional damage to the Vols’ SEC hopes. The Vols were 8.5-point underdogs, so for most of last week the loss wasn’t unexpected. A loss didn’t become unexpected until halftime, when the Vols went to the locker room ahead 20-7. The second half made the ultimate outcome especially disappointing. The real disappointment in the win/loss column, though, actually happened several weeks ago in the Swamp when the Vols lost to a Gators team as a 7-point favorite.
But all is not yet lost. Tennessee can still make the SEC championship game, provided they take care of business and get a little help along the way. Here are the current SEC East standings:
To get to the top of that list, here’s what needs to happen:
- Tennessee wins out. This would put the Vols at 6-2 in conference play. Kentucky would have at least 3 losses; Missouri at least 2. Georgia would have 1 loss, to the Vols.
- Florida loses two more games. Florida still has Georgia (this weekend), LSU, and Missouri on the schedule. Right now, Hat Guy has the Gators as 15-point dogs to Georgia and 10-point dogs to LSU and Missouri. As underdogs in all three, they could certainly lose at least two.
- Georgia loses another game in addition to losing to Tennessee. This is the most unlikely to happen. Forgetting Tennessee for a moment, Georgia still has to play Florida in a rivalry game this weekend, No. 16 Missouri, and No. 12 Ole Miss. Right now, Hat Guy has the Dawgs as 15-point favorites over Florida, 10-point favorites over Missouri, and 12-point favorites over Ole Miss. The Missouri and Ole Miss games are at home, but the Florida game is, as always, at a neutral site. The Vols need one of those teams to pull off the upset.
Can Tennessee win out?
If the Vols don’t win out in the SEC, nothing else will matter. Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the possibilities.
Straight up, Hat Guy was very wrong about the Florida game and wrong about the Alabama game in the second half. Other than that, though, he’s been pretty spot on. In the last four SEC games, he currently likes the Vols against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, Missouri by a field goal, and Georgia by 9. Our hope on the question of whether the Vols can win out is pinned out first doing what they should, then winning a close one against the Tigers, and finally, Neyland Stadium.
For reference, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:
Tennessee Volunteers
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | Virginia | W | 49-13 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Austin Peay | W | 30-13 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | @ | Florida | L | 29-16 | 2-1 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | UTSA | W | 45-14 | 3-1 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | vs | South Carolina | W | 41-20 | 4-1 (1-1) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | Texas A&M | W | 20-13 | 5-1 (2-1) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | @ | 11 Alabama | L | 34-20 | 5-2 (2-2) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | @ | Kentucky | W | 33-27 | 6-2 (3-2) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | UConn | W | 59-3 | 7-2 (3-2) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | @ | 14 Missouri | L | 36-7 | 7-3 (3-3) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | 1 Georgia | L | 38-10 | 7-4 (3-4) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | vs | Vanderbilt | | 3:30 PM | SECN |
The Vols’ future opponents
Kentucky
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | Ball State | W | 44-14 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Eastern Kentucky | W | 28-17 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | Akron | W | 35-3 | 3-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | @ | Vanderbilt | W | 45-28 | 4-0 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | vs | 22 Florida | W | 33-14 | 5-0 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | @ | 1 Georgia | L | 51-13 | 5-1 (2-1) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | Missouri | L | 38-21 | 5-2 (2-2) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | 21 Tennessee | L | 33-27 | 5-3 (2-3) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | Mississippi State | W | 24-3 | 6-3 (3-3) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | 8 Alabama | L | 49-21 | 6-4 (3-4) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | @ | South Carolina | L | 17-14 | 6-5 (3-5) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | 10 Louisville | | 12:00 PM | ABC |
DNP.
UConn
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Thu, Aug 31 | vs | NC State | L | 24-14 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | @ | Georgia State | L | 35-14 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | Florida International | L | 24-17 | 0-3 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | 18 Duke | L | 41-7 | 0-4 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | vs | Utah State | L | 34-33 | 0-5 (0-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | @ | Rice | W | 38-31 | 1-5 (0-0) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | vs | South Florida | L | 24-21 | 1-6 (0-0) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | @ | Boston College | L | 21-14 | 1-7 (0-0) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | 17 Tennessee | L | 59-3 | 1-8 (0-0) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | @ | James Madison | L | 44-6 | 1-9 (0-0) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Sacred Heart | W | 31-3 | 2-9 (0-0) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | Massachusetts | | 12:00 PM | ESPN+ |
Missouri
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Thu, Aug 31 | vs | South Dakota | W | 35-10 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Middle Tennessee | W | 23-19 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | 15 Kansas State | W | 30-27 | 3-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | Memphis | W | 34-27 | 4-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Vanderbilt | W | 38-21 | 5-0 (1-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | vs | 23 LSU | L | 49-39 | 5-1 (1-1) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | @ | 24 Kentucky | W | 38-21 | 6-1 (2-1) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | vs | South Carolina | W | 34-12 | 7-1 (3-1) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | 2 Georgia | L | 30-21 | 7-2 (3-2) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | 13 Tennessee | W | 36-7 | 8-2 (4-2) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Florida | W | 33-31 | 9-2 (5-2) |
| Fri, Nov 24 | @ | Arkansas | | 4:00 PM | CBS |
Having increased their record to 7-1 (3-1) with a win over South Carolina last weekend, Missouri will play Georgia next after a bye this weekend. I’m interested to see how that game impacts the comps and Hat Guy’s prediction of the Tigers-Vols game.
Georgia
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | UT Martin | W | 48-7 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Ball State | W | 45-3 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | South Carolina | W | 24-14 | 3-0 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | UAB | W | 49-21 | 4-0 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Auburn | W | 27-20 | 5-0 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | vs | 20 Kentucky | W | 51-13 | 6-0 (3-0) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | @ | Vanderbilt | W | 37-20 | 7-0 (4-0) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | Florida | W | 43-20 | 8-0 (5-0) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | 12 Missouri | W | 30-21 | 9-0 (6-0) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | 9 Ole Miss | W | 52-17 | 10-0 (7-0) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | @ | 18 Tennessee | W | 38-10 | 11-0 (8-0) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | Georgia Tech | | 7:30 PM | ABC |
| Sat, Dec 2 | vs | 8 Alabama | | 4:00 PM | CBS |
DNP.
Vanderbilt
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Aug 26 | vs | Hawai'i | W | 35-28 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | Alabama A&M | W | 47-13 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | @ | Wake Forest | L | 36-20 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | @ | UNLV | L | 40-37 | 2-2 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | Kentucky | L | 45-28 | 2-3 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | vs | 23 Missouri | L | 38-21 | 2-4 (0-2) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | @ | Florida | L | 38-14 | 2-5 (0-3) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | 1 Georgia | L | 37-20 | 2-6 (0-4) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | @ | 12 Ole Miss | L | 33-7 | 2-7 (0-5) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | Auburn | L | 31-15 | 2-8 (0-6) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | @ | South Carolina | L | 47-6 | 2-9 (0-7) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | 18 Tennessee | | 3:30 PM | SECN |
DNP.
The Vols’ past opponents
Virginia
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | 12 Tennessee | L | 49-13 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | James Madison | L | 36-35 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| Fri, Sep 15 | @ | Maryland | L | 42-14 | 0-3 (0-0) |
| Fri, Sep 22 | vs | NC State | L | 24-21 | 0-4 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Boston College | L | 27-24 | 0-5 (0-2) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | vs | William & Mary | W | 27-13 | 1-5 (0-2) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | @ | 10 North Carolina | W | 31-27 | 2-5 (1-2) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | @ | Miami | L | 29-26 OT | 2-6 (1-3) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | Georgia Tech | L | 45-17 | 2-7 (1-4) |
| Thu, Nov 9 | @ | 11 Louisville | L | 31-24 | 2-8 (1-5) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Duke | W | 30-27 | 3-8 (2-5) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | vs | Virginia Tech | | 3:30 PM | ACCN |
Austin Peay
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | @ | Southern Illinois | L | 49-23 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | @ | 9 Tennessee | L | 30-13 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | East Tennessee State | W | 63-3 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | @ | Stephen F. Austin | W | 22-20 | 2-2 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Lindenwood | W | 52-10 | 3-2 (1-0) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | Gardner-Webb | W | 41-14 | 4-2 (1-0) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | @ | Southern Utah | W | 48-45 2OT | 5-2 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | North Alabama | W | 49-39 | 6-2 (3-0) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | Eastern Kentucky | W | 33-30 OT | 7-2 (4-0) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | Utah Tech | W | 30-17 | 8-2 (5-0) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Central Arkansas | W | 14-12 | 9-2 (6-0) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | vs | Chattanooga | | 3:00 PM | ESPN+ |
Florida
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Thu, Aug 31 | @ | 14 Utah | L | 24-11 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | McNeese | W | 49-7 | 3-2 (1-1) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | 11 Tennessee | W | 29-16 | 2-1 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | Charlotte | W | 22-7 | 3-1 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Kentucky | L | 33-14 | 3-2 (1-1) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | vs | Vanderbilt | W | 38-14 | 4-2 (2-1) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | @ | South Carolina | W | 41-39 | 5-2 (3-1) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | 1 Georgia | L | 43-20 | 5-3 (3-2) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | Arkansas | L | 39-36 OT | 5-4 (3-3) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | @ | 19 LSU | L | 52-35 | 5-5 (3-4) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | @ | 9 Missouri | L | 33-31 | 5-6 (3-5) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | vs | 4 Florida State | | 7:00 PM | ESPN |
Florida finding their rhythm is classic good news/bad news. On one side of the ledger, it makes Tennessee’s loss to them look better and increases the odds that they could give Georgia that extrar loss we’re looking for. On the other side, it decreases the odds that they will lose two more games like we need them to.
UTSA
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | @ | Houston | L | 17-14 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Texas State | W | 20-13 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| Fri, Sep 15 | vs | Army | L | 37-29 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | @ | 23 Tennessee | L | 45-14 | 1-3 (0-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | @ | Temple | W | 49-34 | 2-3 (1-0) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | UAB | W | 41-20 | 3-3 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | @ | Florida Atlantic | W | 36-10 | 4-3 (3-0) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | East Carolina | W | 41-27 | 5-3 (4-0) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | North Texas | W | 37-29 | 6-3 (5-0) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | Rice | W | 34-14 | 7-3 (6-0) |
| Fri, Nov 17 | vs | South Florida | W | 49-21 | 8-3 (7-0) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | 24 Tulane | | 3:30 PM | ABC |
South Carolina
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | 21 North Carolina | L | 31-17 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | Furman | W | 47-21 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | @ | 1 Georgia | L | 24-14 | 1-2 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | Mississippi State | W | 37-30 | 2-2 (1-1) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | 21 Tennessee | L | 41-20 | 2-3 (1-2) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | Florida | L | 41-39 | 2-4 (1-3) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | @ | 20 Missouri | L | 34-12 | 2-5 (1-4) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | @ | Texas A&M | L | 30-17 | 2-6 (1-5) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | Jacksonville State | W | 38-28 | 3-6 (1-5) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | Vanderbilt | W | 47-6 | 4-6 (2-5) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Kentucky | W | 17-14 | 5-6 (3-5) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | vs | Clemson | | 7:30 PM | SECN |
Texas A&M
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | New Mexico | W | 52-10 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | @ | Miami | L | 48-33 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | vs | UL Monroe | W | 47-3 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | Auburn | W | 27-10 | 3-1 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | vs | Arkansas | W | 34-22 | 4-1 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | vs | 11 Alabama | L | 26-20 | 4-2 (2-1) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | @ | 19 Tennessee | L | 20-13 | 4-3 (2-2) |
| Sat, Oct 28 | vs | South Carolina | W | 30-17 | 5-3 (3-2) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | @ | 10 Ole Miss | L | 38-35 | 5-4 (3-3) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | vs | Mississippi State | W | 51-10 | 6-4 (4-3) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Abilene Christian | W | 38-10 | 7-4 (4-3) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | 15 LSU | | 12:00 PM | ESPN |
DNP.
Alabama
| | | | | |
|---|
| Date | | Opponent | Result | Score | W-L |
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | Middle Tennessee | W | 56-7 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | 11 Texas | L | 34-24 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 16 | @ | South Florida | W | 17-3 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sep 23 | vs | 15 Ole Miss | W | 24-10 | 3-1 (1-0) |
| Sat, Sep 30 | @ | Mississippi State | W | 40-17 | 4-1 (2-0) |
| Sat, Oct 7 | @ | Texas A&M | W | 26-20 | 5-1 (3-0) |
| Sat, Oct 14 | vs | Arkansas | W | 24-21 | 6-1 (4-0) |
| Sat, Oct 21 | vs | 17 Tennessee | W | 34-20 | 7-1 (5-0) |
| Sat, Nov 4 | vs | 14 LSU | W | 42-28 | 8-1 (6-0) |
| Sat, Nov 11 | @ | Kentucky | W | 49-21 | 9-1 (7-0) |
| Sat, Nov 18 | vs | Chattanooga | W | 66-10 | 10-1 (7-0) |
| Sat, Nov 25 | @ | Auburn | | 3:30 PM | CBS |
| Sat, Dec 2 | vs | 1 Georgia | | 4:00 PM | CBS |
Enjoy the predictions and opponent schedule summary. I fear we will be in need of several game winning drives, can we do it? Go Vols!
Appreciate it, Mr B.
It is going to be interesting down the stretch. No room for letdowns… must play to potential and consistently. Hope they are focused on one game at a time and injuries don’t impact. Thanks Joel for the analysis… Go Vols!
Thanks, Harley. Agreed on all of that. There is very little margin for error anymore, and we need a little help and a little luck.