Poll Streaks, Ranked vs Ranked, and Standard Gratitude

Last year Tennessee fell out of the Top 25 after beating Vanderbilt to finish the regular season. The drop was one spot, from 25th to the first team receiving votes. Then the Vols were back in the poll one week later, and finished 17th after a triumphant New Year’s in Orlando.

That one week broke a streak of 28 straight poll appearances, which tied for the sixth-longest in program history via the good folks at College Poll Archive. So we’re currently at four polls without an incident, which makes for 32 out of 33.

It happens, even in the best of times: the second-longest streak on UT’s list came from 1989-1994, 86 weeks between back-to-back SEC titles from Johnny Majors and the beginning of the Phillip Fulmer era. The Vols fell out of the Top 25 in late September of ’94 after a 1-3 start featuring mostly Todd Helton at quarterback. They made the tag to the freshman Peyton Manning (with a side of Brandon Stewart), and the Vols reappeared in the Top 25 at season’s end following a 45-23 win over #17 Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.

So 86 weeks in, then 11 weeks out. And then 94 weeks in, the program record from the final poll in 1994 to mid-October in 2000.

We’ve got a ways to go from here to there; perhaps these Vols will be on their way thanks to another freshman quarterback. Those questions really start getting answered tomorrow night, when #14 Tennessee faces #24 NC State.

It’s that visual – Top 25 vs Top 25 at the bottom of your ticker and in the lead block on College Gameday – that still stands out to me. We’ve run these numbers before back when I was writing (much) more often, and I don’t know about you, but I still find them so incredibly meaningful.

When the AP poll went to a Top 25 in 1989, Tennessee played in 84 ranked vs ranked games over the next 19 seasons. That’s four or five a year on average. You just came to expect it; if, again, being in the hunt is the real prize, Tennessee was playing the games that mattered every single year, and winning enough of them to keep mattering.

And then, from 2008-2021, Tennessee played in eight ranked vs ranked games. Eight. And four of those were in four consecutive weeks in 2016. Plus 2012 Florida. 2015 Oklahoma. 2017 Florida. And 2020 Georgia. The Vols lost all four of those, which meant in part they wouldn’t see another ranked vs ranked game those years.

This Saturday, another opportunity arrives. And it will be the 12th ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played since the start of the 2022 season. Twelve, in two years and two Saturdays.

You never know for sure how long they’ll last, and you work like heck for today to become tomorrow. But make no mistake: they may not yet be old, but these days are indeed good.

Go Vols.

Elite Eight & Everyday Privilege

We don’t have many Elite Eight reflexes, but one thing I do remember from 14 years ago: this day between is strange. There is so very much to celebrate, so much uncharted territory. But also, in around 24 hours – a short amount of time, considering it took 31284710 hours for Friday night’s game to get here – Tennessee can do even more. For the very very first time.

Saturday is this balance between static and dynamic. Some things just are, safely are. Tennessee is in its second ever Elite Eight. Rick Barnes is in his fourth. This 2024 team will end its season in either Detroit or Phoenix with the best resume we’ve ever seen in Knoxville: an outright SEC title in a loaded league, tied for the program’s highest ever seed, now through to where only one team before – a six seed, in one of the wildest roller coaster seasons in any sport on this campus – has played.

They did so with no help from the bracket. When the Vols lost to nine seed Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16 last season, it felt like a huge missed opportunity…but that path to the Final Four would’ve actually been Tennessee’s third-toughest. Among Vol squads with a real chance to advance – didn’t lose in the first round, didn’t get blown out in any round, etc. – only two faced more difficult paths by total seed count: the 2019 group, which went 15-10-3 and would’ve faced top seed Virginia had it gone differently against, you know, Purdue…and the 2007 group, which went chalk as a five seed against 12-4-1 and would’ve faced two seed Memphis. (The 2008 squad would’ve also faced chalk, but lost to three seed Louisville by 19 in the Sweet 16).

So among teams with what feels like a real chance to make the Final Four, only that 2007 group had a more difficult path than this one. This Tennessee team is now as far as anyone has ever gone here, from a seed as good as anyone has ever earned here, on a path as tough as anyone has ever faced here. Sharpie.

It’s only top seed Purdue next: the Boilermakers would be the fifth best team Tennessee ever beat in the KenPom era (behind 2019 Gonzaga, 2010 Kansas, 2008 Memphis, 2013 Florida). This year’s Auburn squad is currently number seven on that list behind the two Florida title teams in 2006 & 2007.

It’s Purdue in Detroit; the Vols will wear the orange jerseys. In them, they became the first team in school history to beat three ranked teams on the road. In them, they lost to Purdue in Maui by four points. In Maui, Dalton Knecht’s season high was 24 points. And in Maui, Zakai Zeigler played 28 minutes, off the bench.

You heard it from the man himself last night: they’re better.

But we’re better too.

Whatever comes next, it’s a privilege to be this far. But the real privilege, of course, is ours: not just to enjoy today and then buckle up again tomorrow, but to be fans of this team and this program. Something we’ve said a lot in football the past couple of years, in the language of a program finding itself again, is still true for a program now that has now found itself as seeds of three, two, five, three, four, and two in the last six NCAA Tournaments. Championships and uncharted territory are of course the goal. But the everyday privilege is being in the conversation. You don’t win every night or every year; we all know 98.4% of the teams in your bracket won’t end their run victorious. But this team and this program are in that hunt every single season. It is both a gift and by no means easy. It’s a joy, and a privilege.

We have somewhere between one and three nights left to watch this team. Enjoy every possession.

This season is a gift. Again.

And we’re not done yet.

Go Vols.

Vols with 30+ Points in Wins vs Ranked Teams

The most jarring thing to happen last night that didn’t involve Dalton Knecht was the “Bruce Pearl, 10th season at Auburn” graphic. Which can’t be right, but I’m getting ready to throw a lot of research at you from ESPN’s website, so let’s trust the process. It doesn’t feel that way because, like Rick Barnes at Tennessee, it took a second to get going like this. Pearl’s first two Auburn teams went 9-27 in SEC play, then an 18-14 campaign, then six NCAA Tournament teams in seven seasons, five of them seeded five or higher (assuming the 2020 group would’ve gotten there and this one will too), and one Final Four.

Rick Barnes’ first two teams went 18-22 in SEC play, and the 2020 squad was bubble centric. Which makes for the same six NCAA Tournament teams in seven seasons, all of them seeded five or higher.

Auburn is in the midst of unprecedented basketball success. Tennessee walked that same road with Pearl in the past, and is now living its best life again with Barnes. In the short and long term, both of these programs have much to be grateful for, and so many good memories made.

And in the midst of all that last night was Knecht, the architect of maybe the best individual performance I’ve ever seen at Tennessee, on a team that is right there to earn the program’s first ever one seed.

A mere 17 (!!!) years ago, when it was Pearl on our sideline, we had a guy named Chris Lofton, ever heard of him? And one of my favorite talking points was how Lofton’s very best performance was overshadowed by his very best individual shot. On December 23, 2006, Lofton hit that bomb over Kevin Durant. Rick Barnes was there too! The Vols completed a wild comeback and took down Texas 111-105 in overtime. It was a volume day: Durant had 26 points on 22 shots, Lofton 35 on just 8-of-24 from the field.

But seventeen days earlier, a ranked Memphis squad rolled into town. And Lofton did this in the first half:

(This grainy footage makes me feel so old to realize I was 25 years old when it was taken and not, you know, two.)

Lofton almost outscored Memphis in the first half, falling a point behind 22-21. He did it in every way imaginable, which sounds very familiar from last night. He added 13 more in the second half to finish with 34 points on 18 shots, 6-of-11 from three, and the Vols crushed #17 Memphis 76-58.

The Durant legend grew, appropriately. That Memphis team ended up a two seed in the Elite Eight, setting the stage for an even bigger showdown between the Vols and Tigers the following season.

The shot and the guy he shot it over makes the Texas memory the winner. But for an overall performance – the best you’ve ever seen anyone play wearing orange – Lofton vs Memphis was still my pick.

A mere five years ago, Admiral Schofield and the Vols went to the desert to face #1 Gonzaga – one of many favorable trips to Arizona for this athletic department, which is good news with the Final Four in Phoenix. Schofield had 30 points, 25 in the second half, and Tennessee won an absolute thriller 76-73.

At the time, we called it the best individual performance since Chris Lofton was around. Those Vols went on to spend a month at number one. That Gonzaga team is still the best Tennessee has ever beaten by way of KenPom.

And a mere 24 hours ago, Dalton Knecht vs #11 Auburn.

What I love about all three of these: the color commentator can’t help himself. Jimmy Dykes saw both Lofton and Knecht last night in Knoxville. Sean Farnham with the “stop it!” for Schofield against Gonzaga. It’s better than speechless.

Knecht scored 25 points in the final 12 minutes, outscoring the Tigers over that stretch to turn an eight-point deficit into an eight-point win. Shout out to Santiago Vescovi, who didn’t score all night, then made every basketball coach on the face of the earth smile by grabbing an offensive rebound and putting Knecht’s final shot back in to put the game away.

We’ve seen Knecht go for 30 and 35+ plenty at this point. And we’re used to talking about things in post-Lofton language, a guy so good he deserved his own category. The Ernie & Bernie stuff is even grainier footage, it’s before my time. Allan Houston was a monster when I was a kid, but his teams weren’t able to rise to the level of the ones Lofton, Schofield, and Knecht were surrounded by.

But what Knecht did last night isn’t just good for post-Lofton. It might be as good as anything anyone, Lofton included, has done here.

So, how do we quantify these kind of performances? Turns out, just from starting with these three and working back through ESPN’s website…they pretty much stand on their own.

A shout out to Kevin Punter’s 36 points against #24 South Carolina in 2016, Barnes’ first season. That one joins these:

  • Chris Lofton 34 points vs #17 Memphis (12-of-18, 6-of-11 3PT)
  • Kevin Punter 36 points vs #24 South Carolina (8-of-16, 6-of-11 3PT)
  • Admiral Schofield 30 points vs #1 Gonzaga (12-of-22, 6-of-10 3PT)
  • Dalton Knecht 39 points vs #11 Auburn (12-of-21, 5-of-8 3PT)

…as the only Vols to score 30+ points in a win over a ranked team from Bruce Pearl through Rick Barnes.

This is rare stuff, friends.

Enjoy every possession.

Go Vols.

Makes the Tag to Nico

Opt-outs will make us rethink the way a list like this works, but Joe Milton will find his way to the spirit of the idea here:

Tennessee Full-Season Starters at QB, Last 20 Years

  • Joe Milton, 2023 (regular season)
  • Josh Dobbs, 2015 & 2016
  • Tyler Bray, 2012 (Justin Worley subbed in during the loss to Vandy in Derek Dooley’s last game)
  • Jonathan Crompton, 2009
  • Erik Ainge, 2007

Andy Kelly, Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Tee Martin, and Casey Clausen gave the Vols the same face at quarterback every Saturday for 11 of 14 seasons from 1990-2003. Since then, it’s technically only happened with Ainge, Crompton, and Dobbs four times in 20 years. As Milton finishes his Tennessee career on his own terms, a tip of the cap to his steadfast nature. Other than Hendon Hooker, the last starting quarterback to throw 20+ TD passes with five or fewer interceptions was Peyton Manning. All the best to him in pursuit of the NFL.

As for Nico Iamaleava, he’ll pursue the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are second nationally in SP+ in that department, giving the five-star freshman real live first in his first meaningful action. Given our strength of schedule around here, a new QB facing a good team isn’t exactly a new idea:

Vol QB First Starts vs Ranked Teams, Post-Fulmer Era

  • 2023 Nico Iamaleava vs #20 Iowa
  • 2020 Harrison Bailey vs #6 Florida
  • 2019 Brian Maurer vs #3 Georgia
  • 2013 Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri
  • 2013 Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida
  • 2011 Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

The Georgia team Maurer faced finished the 2019 season with the best defense in the country in SP+; Iowa’s currently rates higher (8.2 points allowed vs the average team, compared to 10.0 for 2019 Georgia). So the Hawkeyes, at least in the spreadsheets, present as stiff of a defensive challenge as any Vol QB has seen in their first start (give or take your opinion of Peyton Manning vs ’94 Washington State if anyone wants to remember those days of 10-9 glory).

When we researched some of this as the Vols were trying to find their way at quarterback in 2019 & 2020, we found that sometimes that first step is a real doozy, where even future greats like Dobbs fail to produce a single offensive touchdown. If Iowa’s defense lives up to their name and controls the Citrus Bowl, it won’t spell certain doom for the 2024 Vol offense.

The biggest difference here, of course, is Tennessee.

This isn’t a struggling Vol team making a mid-season change at QB. Even at 8-4, this Tennessee team is plenty capable…and it’ll be exciting to see how Nico impacts the math.

If you want a semi-relevant historical comparison, the closest we can come is probably 2006, when Jonathan Crompton took over for an injured Erik Ainge to face LSU (who finished #1 in SP+ and #2 in defense) then Arkansas (15th in defense). Those Vols were good, game, and a bad call on a fumble away from taking down the Tigers in Knoxville. Those opponents obviously offered more in terms of offense than Iowa should as well, etc.

But in terms of an exciting young quarterback playing on a good Tennessee team going against a great defense? And just in terms of pure intrigue, the ways this performance could color the conversation headed into 2024?

This match-up is a pretty good one.

Go Vols.

GRT 2023 Bowl Pick ‘Em

Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam for taking home the 2023 regular season picks contest trophy! It was a really tight race this season, with his 2,309 confidence points narrowly eclipsing boro wvvol (2,302) and wedflatrock (2,301). Full Top 10 at the bottom of this post.

We’re on to the postseason (and Orlando!). You can find our bowl pick ’em back at Fun Office Pools; previous players should’ve received an email invite today. Find us in the comments if you have any questions – good luck out there!

Regular Season Top 10

  1. birdjam 2309
  2. boro wvvol 2302
  3. wedflatrock 2301
  4. UNDirish60 2295
  5. PAVolFan 2292
  6. Jahiegel 2282
  7. cnyvol 2276
  8. joeb_1 2259
  9. TennRebel 2254
  10. jfarrar90 2251
  11. mmmjtx 2251

Tennessee-Vanderbilt, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

Tennessee opened as a 26-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week with an over/under of 55.5. Currently, those numbers are 27 and 57. Hat Guy thinks the spread is right on the nose, but he likes the over.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing an average of 35.1 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Virginia 31.8
  • Connecticut 30.9
  • Florida 27.9
  • South Carolina 27.3
  • UTSA 24.3
  • Kentucky 24.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

  • Virginia 49
  • Connecticut 59
  • Florida 16
  • South Carolina 41
  • Kentucky 33
  • UTSA 45

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 146%

Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Virginia 23.8
  • Connecticut 18
  • South Carolina 27.7
  • Kentucky 27.7
  • Florida 29.6
  • Missouri 32.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Virginia 13
  • Connecticut 3
  • South Carolina 20
  • Kentucky 27
  • Florida 29
  • Missouri 36

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%

Estimated score: Tennessee 51.2, Vanderbilt 18.2

From Vanderbilt’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 21.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Auburn 21.5
  • Missouri 23.1
  • Mississippi 23.7
  • Kentucky 24.3
  • UNLV 24.5
  • Wake Forest 26.5

Vanderbilt’s points against those teams:

  • Auburn 15
  • Missouri 21
  • Mississippi 7
  • Kentucky 28
  • UNLV 37
  • Wake Forest 20

Vanderbilt’s offensive premium/discount: 89%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 30 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Florida 29.6
  • Kentucky 27.7
  • South Carolina 27.7
  • Auburn 27.5
  • Missouri 32.8
  • UNLV 35.9

Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Florida 38
  • South Carolina 47
  • Kentucky 45
  • Auburn 31
  • Missouri 38
  • UNLV 40

Vanderbilt’s defensive premium/discount: 132%

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 19.4, Tennessee 39.6

Combined Estimated Score

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Tennessee45.4Vanderbilt18.8Tennessee-26.6241.971.5279.1235.3

Hat Guy thinks this one is a push, but he likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That looks about right to me.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 15, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 42, Vandy 14 (Vols -25.5.)

Bottom line

  • Vegas opening: Tennessee -26 (~Vols 41, Commodores 15)
  • Vegas current: Tennessee -27 (Vols 42, Commodores 15)
  • Hat Guy: Tennessee -26.6 (Vols 45, Commodores 19) (Vols barely cover opening, but barely not closing)
  • SP+: Tennessee -25.5 (Vols 42, Commodores 14 (Vols don’t cover either spread, but only barely)
  • Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 13 college football TV viewing schedule

Happy Thanksgiving, y’all. It’s Rivalry Week as the No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the Vanderbilt Commodores this afternoon at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s up against the Iron Bowl, as No. 8 Alabama travels to Auburn at the same time on CBS.

The day kicks off with a huge Top 5 matchup with playoff implications as No. 2 Ohio State goes to No. 3 Michigan. That one’s on Fox at noon. The evenling slate includes games between No. 5 Florida State and Florida (7:00, ESPN), No. 1 Georgia and Georgia Tech (7:30, ABC), and No. 24 Clemson and South Carolina (7:30, SECN).

The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 25, 2023

Away Home Time TV
NOON
2 Ohio State 3 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
AFTERNOON
Vanderbilt 21 Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN
8 Alabama Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
EVENING
5 Florida State Florida 7:00 PM ESPN
1 Georgia Georgia Tech 7:30 PM ABC
24 Clemson South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

DateAwayHomeTimeTV
11/25/23 2 Ohio State 3 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
11/25/23 Kentucky 10 Louisville 12:00 PM ABC
11/25/23 Texas A&M 14 LSU 12:00 PM ESPN
11/25/23 Indiana Purdue 12:00 PM BTN
11/25/23 Middle Tennessee Sam Houston State 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Connecticut Massachusetts 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Pittsburgh Duke 12:00 PM ACCN
11/25/23 Houston UCF 12:00 PM FS1
11/25/23 Navy SMU 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/25/23 Troy Southern Mississippi 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/25/23 Northern Illinois Kent State 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Miami (Ohio) Ball State 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/25/23 Florida Atlantic Rice 1:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Wake Forest Syracuse 2:00 PM CW NETWORK
11/25/23 Tulsa East Carolina 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 UAB North Texas 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Georgia State Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Western Kentucky Florida International 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Colorado Utah 3:00 PM PAC12
11/25/23 Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Lafayette 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 San Jose State UNLV 3:00 PM
11/25/23 8 Alabama Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
11/25/23 15 Arizona Arizona State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/25/23 BYU 20 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC
11/25/23 Vanderbilt 21 Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN
11/25/23 25 Liberty UTEP 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/25/23 Northwestern Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/25/23 Wisconsin Minnesota 3:30 PM FS1
11/25/23 Maryland Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
11/25/23 Virginia Tech Virginia 3:30 PM ACCN
11/25/23 Georgia Southern Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPNU
11/25/23 James Madison Coastal Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/25/23 Arkansas State Marshall 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 Washington State 4 Washington 4:00 PM FOX
11/25/23 Jacksonville State New Mexico State 4:00 PM ESPN+
11/25/23 5 Florida State Florida 7:00 PM ESPN
11/25/23 18 Notre Dame Stanford 7:00 PM PAC12
11/25/23 West Virginia Baylor 7:00 PM FS1
11/25/23 South Alabama Texas State 7:00 PM NFL NET
11/25/23 1 Georgia Georgia Tech 7:30 PM ABC
11/25/23 24 Clemson South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
11/25/23 Kansas Cincinnati 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/25/23 Charlotte South Florida 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/25/23 Iowa State 19 Kansas State 8:00 PM FOX
11/25/23 North Carolina 22 North Carolina State 8:00 PM ACCN
11/25/23 Wyoming Nevada 9:00 PM CBSSN
11/25/23 California UCLA 10:30 PM ESPN
11/25/23 Fresno State San Diego State 10:30 PM FS1

Hat Guy’s expectations for the Vols’ 2023 season: UPDATED (post-Georgia)

Tennessee lost its chance at the SEC East two weeks ago with a clunker against Missouri and then followed it up with another against Georgia Saturday. What remains is a regular-season closer against 0-7 Vanderbilt and a bowl game. Most are projecting a trip to the Gator Bowl against North Carolina or NC State. For those making Christmas plans, the Gator Bowl is in Jacksonville, Florida on December 29 at 2:00 p.m. Just remember, it’s not official yet.

For the record, here are the current SEC East standings.

Georgia 8-0
Missouri 5-2
Tennessee 3-4
Kentucky 3-5
Florida 3-5
South Carolina 3-5
Vanderbilt 0-7

Season Resume: Tennessee and Hat Guy

Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the Vanderbilt game.

Preseason W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 (Bye) W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12
VA TN -36 TN 49-13
AP TN 30-13
FL TN -13 FL 29-16
UTSA TN -8 TN 45-14
SC TN -15 TN 41-20
TAMU TAMU -14 TN -1.5 TN 20-13
AL AL -7 AL -3.8 TN -2.1 AL 34-20
KY KY -8 TN -7.7 TN -10.7 TN -6.2 TN 33-27
UCONN TN -32 TN -28 TN -26 TN -25.1 TN -21.7 TN 59-3
MO MO -3 TN -10.5 TN -4.2 MO -2.6 MO -1.6 TN -2.4 GA 36-7
GA GA -6 GA -8.8 GA -6.3 GA -9.3 GA -13.3 GA -8.1 GA -15.4 GA 38-10
VAN TN -17 TN -26.9 TN -25.7 TN -22.9 TN -29.8 TN -27.9 TN -26.6

The Alabama and Missouri games were essentially toss-ups that the Vols instead lost big. Florida remains the shocker, as the Vols were fairly heavy favorites heading into that loss. The Georgia game, well, Tennessee was expected to lose, just not expected to be so inept, especially on offense.

For the sake of posterity, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Austin Peay

Florida

UTSA

South Carolina

Texas A&M

Alabama

Kentucky

UConn

Missouri

Georgia

How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 12 college football TV viewing schedule

The No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Other than that, it’s slim pickings today. There are two Top 25 matchups, the first at the awkward time of 2:30 ET between No. 22 Utah and No. 17 Arizona on the PAC12 network. The other is No. 5 Washington traveling to No. 11 Oregon State at 7:30 on ABC. If you don’t want to wait until 2:30 for football, your best bet may be No. 10 Louisville going to Miami at noon on ABC. And if you don’t care much about the Pac12, you can watch what No. 9 Missouri might or might not do at home to the Florida Gators at 7:30 on ESPN.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 11, 2023

Away Home Time TV
NOON
10 Louisville Miami (Florida) 12:00 PM ABC
22 Utah 17 Arizona 2:30 PM PAC12
AFTERNOON
1 Georgia 18 Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
EVENING
5 Washington 11 Oregon State 7:30 PM ABC
Florida 9 Missouri 7:30 PM ESPN

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

DateAwayHomeTimeTV
11/18/23 3 Michigan Maryland 12:00 PM FOX
11/18/23 Chattanooga 8 Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN+|SECN+
11/18/23 10 Louisville Miami (Florida) 12:00 PM ABC
11/18/23 Rutgers 12 Penn State 12:00 PM FS1
11/18/23 Louisiana-Monroe 13 Mississippi 12:00 PM SECN
11/18/23 14 Oklahoma BYU 12:00 PM ESPN
11/18/23 24 Tulane Florida Atlantic 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Coastal Carolina Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/18/23 Michigan State Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
11/18/23 Southern Mississippi Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN+|SECN+
11/18/23 Purdue Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/18/23 Abilene Christian Texas A&M 12:00 PM ESPN+|SECN+
11/18/23 Sacred Heart Connecticut 12:00 PM
11/18/23 East Carolina Navy 12:00 PM ESPNN|ESPN+
11/18/23 SMU Memphis 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/18/23 Massachusetts Liberty 1:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Louisiana Tech Jacksonville State 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 UTEP Middle Tennessee 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Rice Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Appalachian State James Madison 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Kent State Ball State 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Hawai'i Wyoming 2:00 PM
11/18/23 22 Utah 17 Arizona 2:30 PM PAC12
11/18/23 Cincinnati West Virginia 2:30 PM BIG12|ESPN+
11/18/23 Duke Virginia 3:00 PM CW NETWORK
11/18/23 North Texas Tulsa 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Temple UAB 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Texas State Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Nevada Colorado State 3:00 PM
11/18/23 1 Georgia 18 Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
11/18/23 Illinois 16 Iowa 3:30 PM FS1
11/18/23 Wake Forest 19 Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC
11/18/23 20 North Carolina Clemson 3:30 PM ESPN
11/18/23 Sam Houston State Western Kentucky 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 UCLA USC 3:30 PM ABC
11/18/23 North Carolina State Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ACCN
11/18/23 Baylor TCU 3:30 PM BIG12|ESPN+
11/18/23 Louisiana-Lafayette Troy 3:30 PM NFL NET
11/18/23 UNLV Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/18/23 Minnesota 2 Ohio State 4:00 PM BTN
11/18/23 6 Oregon Arizona State 4:00 PM FOX
11/18/23 23 Oklahoma State Houston 4:00 PM ESPN2
11/18/23 New Mexico State Auburn 4:00 PM SECN
11/18/23 UCF Texas Tech 5:00 PM FS2
11/18/23 Marshall South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 Old Dominion Georgia Southern 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/18/23 North Alabama 4 Florida State 6:30 PM CW NETWORK
11/18/23 California Stanford 6:30 PM PAC12
11/18/23 21 Kansas State 25 Kansas 7:00 PM FS1
11/18/23 Boise State Utah State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/18/23 5 Washington 11 Oregon State 7:30 PM ABC
11/18/23 Florida 9 Missouri 7:30 PM ESPN
11/18/23 Florida International Arkansas 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/18/23 Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
11/18/23 Nebraska Wisconsin 7:30 PM NBC
11/18/23 7 Texas Iowa State 8:00 PM FOX
11/18/23 Georgia State 15 LSU 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/18/23 Syracuse Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ACCN
11/18/23 New Mexico Fresno State 10:30 PM FS1
11/18/23 San Diego State San Jose State 10:30 PM CBSSN

Tennessee-Georgia, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

Tennessee opened as a 10-point underdog to Georgia this week with an over/under of 59.5. Currently, those numbers are 10.5 and 58.5. Hat Guy is rooting for the Vols but expecting Georgia to cover.

Tennessee vs Georgia, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Georgia’s defense is allowing an average of 15.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Alabama 18.1
  • Texas A&M 20.4
  • Missouri 22.3
  • UTSA 24.6
  • Kentucky 25
  • Florida 27.4

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

  • Alabama 20
  • Texas A&M 20
  • Missouri 7
  • UTSA 45
  • Kentucky 33
  • Florida 16

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 102%

Georgia’s offense is scoring an average of 40.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Texas A&M 34.2
  • Alabama 33.6
  • Missouri 32.8
  • UTSA 31.5
  • Florida 29.5
  • Kentucky 29.1

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Texas A&M 13
  • Alabama 34
  • Missouri 36
  • UTSA 14
  • Florida 29
  • Kentucky 27

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%

Estimated score: Tennessee 15.9, Georgia 32.5

From Georgia’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Auburn 20.5
  • Missouri 22.3
  • Kentucky 25
  • Mississippi 25.8
  • Ball State 27.3
  • Florida 27.4

Georgia’s points against those teams:

  • Auburn 27
  • Missouri 30
  • Kentucky 51
  • Mississippi 52
  • Ball State 45
  • Florida 43

Georgia’s offensive premium/discount: 167%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Missouri 32.8
  • Florida 29.5
  • Auburn 29.3
  • Kentucky 29.1
  • South Carolina 28.8
  • UAB 28.3

Georgia’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Missouri 21
  • Florida 20
  • Auburn 20
  • Kentucky 13
  • South Carolina 14
  • UAB 21

Georgia’s defensive premium/discount: 61%

Estimated score: Georgia 33.7, Tennessee 19.5

Combined Estimated Score

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Tennessee17.7Georgia33.1Georgia-15.4182.4149.4185.1287.6

Hat Guy likes Georgia to cover tomorrow, and he likes the under.

Guts and Eyeballs

I don’t like it, but those comps all look solid to me. How much of a difference does Neyland Stadium make? I’m thinking not enough in the end.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Georgia 35, Tennessee 25, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Georgia 33, Tennessee 22 (Dawgs -10).

Bottom line

  • Vegas opening: Georgia -10 (~Dawgs 35, Vols 25)
  • Vegas current: Georgia -10.5 (~Dawgs 34, Vols 24)
  • Hat Guy: Georgia -15 (Dawgs 33, Vols 18) (Dawgs cover)
  • SP+: Georgia -10.8 (Dawgs 33, Vols 22) (Dawgs cover)
  • Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?