Author Archives: Will Shelton

Last year Tennessee fell out of the Top 25 after beating Vanderbilt to finish the regular season. The drop was one spot, from 25th to the first team receiving votes. Then the Vols were back in the poll one week later, and finished 17th after a triumphant New Year’s in Orlando.

That one week broke a streak of 28 straight poll appearances, which tied for the sixth-longest in program history via the good folks at College Poll Archive. So we’re currently at four polls without an incident, which makes for 32 out of 33.

It happens, even in the best of times: the second-longest streak on UT’s list came from 1989-1994, 86 weeks between back-to-back SEC titles from Johnny Majors and the beginning of the Phillip Fulmer era. The Vols fell out of the Top 25 in late September of ’94 after a 1-3 start featuring mostly Todd Helton at quarterback. They made the tag to the freshman Peyton Manning (with a side of Brandon Stewart), and the Vols reappeared in the Top 25 at season’s end following a 45-23 win over #17 Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.

So 86 weeks in, then 11 weeks out. And then 94 weeks in, the program record from the final poll in 1994 to mid-October in 2000.

We’ve got a ways to go from here to there; perhaps these Vols will be on their way thanks to another freshman quarterback. Those questions really start getting answered tomorrow night, when #14 Tennessee faces #24 NC State.

It’s that visual – Top 25 vs Top 25 at the bottom of your ticker and in the lead block on College Gameday – that still stands out to me. We’ve run these numbers before back when I was writing (much) more often, and I don’t know about you, but I still find them so incredibly meaningful.

When the AP poll went to a Top 25 in 1989, Tennessee played in 84 ranked vs ranked games over the next 19 seasons. That’s four or five a year on average. You just came to expect it; if, again, being in the hunt is the real prize, Tennessee was playing the games that mattered every single year, and winning enough of them to keep mattering.

And then, from 2008-2021, Tennessee played in eight ranked vs ranked games. Eight. And four of those were in four consecutive weeks in 2016. Plus 2012 Florida. 2015 Oklahoma. 2017 Florida. And 2020 Georgia. The Vols lost all four of those, which meant in part they wouldn’t see another ranked vs ranked game those years.

This Saturday, another opportunity arrives. And it will be the 12th ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played since the start of the 2022 season. Twelve, in two years and two Saturdays.

You never know for sure how long they’ll last, and you work like heck for today to become tomorrow. But make no mistake: they may not yet be old, but these days are indeed good.

Go Vols.

Opt-outs will make us rethink the way a list like this works, but Joe Milton will find his way to the spirit of the idea here:

Tennessee Full-Season Starters at QB, Last 20 Years

• Joe Milton, 2023 (regular season)
• Josh Dobbs, 2015 & 2016
• Tyler Bray, 2012 (Justin Worley subbed in during the loss to Vandy in Derek Dooley’s last game)
• Jonathan Crompton, 2009
• Erik Ainge, 2007

Andy Kelly, Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Tee Martin, and Casey Clausen gave the Vols the same face at quarterback every Saturday for 11 of 14 seasons from 1990-2003. Since then, it’s technically only happened with Ainge, Crompton, and Dobbs four times in 20 years. As Milton finishes his Tennessee career on his own terms, a tip of the cap to his steadfast nature. Other than Hendon Hooker, the last starting quarterback to throw 20+ TD passes with five or fewer interceptions was Peyton Manning. All the best to him in pursuit of the NFL.

As for Nico Iamaleava, he’ll pursue the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are second nationally in SP+ in that department, giving the five-star freshman real live first in his first meaningful action. Given our strength of schedule around here, a new QB facing a good team isn’t exactly a new idea:

Vol QB First Starts vs Ranked Teams, Post-Fulmer Era

• 2023 Nico Iamaleava vs #20 Iowa
• 2020 Harrison Bailey vs #6 Florida
• 2019 Brian Maurer vs #3 Georgia
• 2013 Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri
• 2013 Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida
• 2011 Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

The Georgia team Maurer faced finished the 2019 season with the best defense in the country in SP+; Iowa’s currently rates higher (8.2 points allowed vs the average team, compared to 10.0 for 2019 Georgia). So the Hawkeyes, at least in the spreadsheets, present as stiff of a defensive challenge as any Vol QB has seen in their first start (give or take your opinion of Peyton Manning vs ’94 Washington State if anyone wants to remember those days of 10-9 glory).

When we researched some of this as the Vols were trying to find their way at quarterback in 2019 & 2020, we found that sometimes that first step is a real doozy, where even future greats like Dobbs fail to produce a single offensive touchdown. If Iowa’s defense lives up to their name and controls the Citrus Bowl, it won’t spell certain doom for the 2024 Vol offense.

The biggest difference here, of course, is Tennessee.

This isn’t a struggling Vol team making a mid-season change at QB. Even at 8-4, this Tennessee team is plenty capable…and it’ll be exciting to see how Nico impacts the math.

If you want a semi-relevant historical comparison, the closest we can come is probably 2006, when Jonathan Crompton took over for an injured Erik Ainge to face LSU (who finished #1 in SP+ and #2 in defense) then Arkansas (15th in defense). Those Vols were good, game, and a bad call on a fumble away from taking down the Tigers in Knoxville. Those opponents obviously offered more in terms of offense than Iowa should as well, etc.

But in terms of an exciting young quarterback playing on a good Tennessee team going against a great defense? And just in terms of pure intrigue, the ways this performance could color the conversation headed into 2024?

This match-up is a pretty good one.

Go Vols.

Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam for taking home the 2023 regular season picks contest trophy! It was a really tight race this season, with his 2,309 confidence points narrowly eclipsing boro wvvol (2,302) and wedflatrock (2,301). Full Top 10 at the bottom of this post.

We’re on to the postseason (and Orlando!). You can find our bowl pick ’em back at Fun Office Pools; previous players should’ve received an email invite today. Find us in the comments if you have any questions – good luck out there!

Regular Season Top 10

1. birdjam 2309
2. boro wvvol 2302
3. wedflatrock 2301
4. UNDirish60 2295
5. PAVolFan 2292
6. Jahiegel 2282
7. cnyvol 2276
8. joeb_1 2259
9. TennRebel 2254
10. jfarrar90 2251
11. mmmjtx 2251

Here’s the same question in a different week: in a 12-team playoff, Saturday’s game would (still) mean even more.

It wouldn’t necessarily mean entirely less if you’re #1 Georgia; the Dawgs will likely need to go through Alabama either way. Losses in Knoxville and Atlanta would mean missing it all this year; losses in those two games next year might put Georgia on the road in the first round, etc.

But for #18 Tennessee and the quest for meaningful football – for being in the national conversation – this game would be not just an opportunity to beat number one, but play yourself back into fringe playoff talk.

“How can you say that after the way we lost to Missouri? We can’t seriously entertain beating Georgia now!”

Thanks for asking!

Saturday will be the 25th time the Vols play a Top 5 opponent in the post-Fulmer era, and the 12th time that opponent is ranked number one. As of Wednesday morning the Vols are +10.5 against Georgia.

It’s easy to forget because we won one of them and were ranked number one in the other, but that’s almost exactly where the Vols were when they played Alabama and Georgia last year, closing at +9.5 in both of those games.

And other than those two, +10.5 this week is as close as the Vols have been against the Top 5 in the post-Fulmer era (data via Phil Steele & covers.com).

Tennessee vs Top 5, 2009-2023

Even after the 36-7 loss at Missouri, these Vols have better odds against an elite team than any of their recent predecessors other than last season.

These wins are, by nature, very hard to come by. I use the Top 25 era a lot (1989-present), in part because it coincides with my own memories. In these 35 seasons, the Vols have ten Top 5 wins:

Tennessee Wins vs Top 5 in the Top 25 era (1989-present)

• 2022 vs #3 Alabama, 52-49
• 2005 at #3 LSU, 30-27 (OT)
• 2004 at #3 Georgia, 19-14
• 2001 at #2 Florida, 34-32
• 1998 vs #2 Florida, 20-17 (OT)
• 1998 vs #2 Florida State, 23-16
• 1995 vs #4 Ohio State, 20-14
• 1992 vs #4 Florida, 31-14
• 1991 at #5 Notre Dame, 35-34
• 1989 vs #4 Auburn, 21-14

In these past 35 seasons, the Vols have played a Top 5 opponent 53 times. They’ve been favored just three times…and lost all three:

• 1990 vs #1 Notre Dame in Knoxville with the Vols ranked #9, one of the best football games I’ve ever seen. Tennessee was -3 and lost 34-29 on an interception in the end zone.
• 1996 vs #4 Florida in front of a record-breaking NCAA crowd. The Gators scored the game’s first 35 points before a Tennessee comeback fell short 35-29; Tennessee was -3.
• 2005 vs #5 Georgia, two weeks after The Rally at Death Valley. With the quarterback situation still unresolved, the Dawgs won 27-14 with Tennessee at -3.

Wins against this level of competition are rare and almost never predictable. But this Tennessee team, even after last week, has a better opportunity than we’re used to seeing around here in the last 15 years. It could still mean everything a year from now. And it would absolutely define this season in the present.

I’m excited to see what we’ll do with it.

Go Vols.

If you’re looking for an orange-tinted case for the 12-team playoff, Saturday is about as good as it gets: #13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri would serve as a play-in opportunity of sorts, championship implications for both teams. It would be one of the most meaningful games Tennessee has ever played in mid-November, so often headlined by Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

But you also don’t have to wait a year for high stakes football two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Two things have happened in Knoxville the last three years:

• The Georgia game was moved to November, ensuring a late-season opportunity for a meaningful win. Georgia’s own ascent as potential three-peat champs added all kinds of obvious fuel here.
• Josh Heupel’s arrival has led to Tennessee going 25-10 in his first 35 games after going 78-82 from 2008-2020. The Vols are in the Top 15 with three weeks to go for the second year in a row. The last time that happened in back-to-back seasons was 2003-2004.

Putting Tennessee’s own success aside for a moment, consider the rarity of the big mid-November game around here. Since the AP poll expanded to a Top 25 in 1989, the Vols have faced a ranked opponent in the last three weeks of the season just 13 times. One of those was the December 2001 clash between Tennessee and Florida, postponed from September 11. Two more came in the covid season. And one other came after Butch Jones was let go in 2017, when Brady Hoke led the Vols against #20 LSU.

That leaves just nine games built into Tennessee’s schedule that brought this kind of opportunity this late in the season:

• Two years ago, the Vols fought but fell to #1 Georgia 41-17.
• In 2018, maybe what was ultimately the biggest win for Jeremy Pruitt, 24-7 over #12 Kentucky. The Vols moved to 5-5 and had to beat either Missouri or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible, but lost to both by a combined 58 points.
• Missouri again in 2014, the eventual East champs after a 29-21 win in Knoxville. The #19 Tigers were the first of six one-possession losses in an 18-6 run from November 2014 to October 2016 after Josh Dobbs became the full-time starter. Ever heard of him?
• A pair of out-of-our-league losses to Auburn in 2013 and at Arkansas in 2011, two teams who finished in the top five.
• In 2006, with Erik Ainge still recovering from injury (and a week after losing to #13 LSU in the final seconds to start the last four weeks of the season), the Vols fell 31-14 at #11 Arkansas.
• The vaunted 1998 Arkansas game.
• The vaunted SP+ world champions of Knoxville in 1993, who smoked #13 Louisville 45-10.
• A gritty 22-13 win at #15 Ole Miss for Johnny Majors in 1990 to keep the Vols on pace for an eventual SEC Championship.

We’ve been far more accustomed to finding meaning in bowl eligibility this late in the season in the last 15 or so years. Now, it’s the first of two Top 15 opponents in the last three weeks of the season, with the Vols right alongside.

When Tennessee and Missouri kick-off at 3:30, everything will still be on the table. You know by now the one path to Atlanta: Vols over Missouri, Ole Miss over Georgia, Vols over Georgia next Saturday. That path, while narrow, could still lead to the college football playoff. If the most important question is, “Are we in the hunt?”, this team has positioned themselves to say yes, even in the last year of four-team world.

Georgia’s credit is also Tennessee’s opportunity: even if the Dawgs secure the SEC East on Saturday night, you’ll find no shortage of meaning in Neyland Stadium next week. Aside from playing for a potential New Year’s Six opportunity – the first time the Vols went back-to-back in the BCS or NY6 since 1998-1999 – a win against this Georgia run would be one of the biggest regular season victories Tennessee has enjoyed in our lifetimes.

The schedule is opportunistic; maybe there will be more Novembers like this going forward.

But Tennessee has been the biggest factor in its own equation, as it should be. The opponents are big. But the Vols have been big enough to make these moments matter for all involved.

A year from now, conversations about #21 Tennessee would start with, “Okay, we’re nine spots out of the playoff.”

There are always opportunities to improve one’s resume in the SEC, and that’s especially true for the Vols this season. In these changing rhythms, consider this:

• Alabama was the first ranked opponent Tennessee faced. The last time the Vols didn’t play a ranked foe until October was 1982.
• The Vols should play two ranked opponents in the last three games of the regular season (#16 Missouri, #1 Georgia). The last time the Vols played two ranked foes in the last three games (non-pandemic) was 1958!

Between here and there is Kentucky: one of the reasons the Vols didn’t close with ranked foes for a long time, but currently riding seven straight years of bowl eligibility. The Cats started hot, then cooled immediately: beat Florida by 19, lost to Georgia and Missouri by a combined 55.

Everyone is more human this season. In SP+, the only breakaway team is the one at the center of the controversy this week in Ann Arbor…and even they would be just fifth overall in last year’s ratings. Behind them are the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs, who this week would be about a six point favorite in Knoxville. Alabama is next, who the Vols just feel like they let get away in Tuscaloosa.

And in Lexington, the match-up is almost dead even in SP+.

This season is taking on the feel of some of those late Fulmer teams: when the margins are thinner, it feels like anything can happen. Sometimes you get November 2006, when multiple ranked teams got the best of a depleted Vol squad. Sometimes you get November 2007, when multiple unranked teams almost got the best of a young Vol squad…but Tennessee won the East.

That option, by the way, is still alive and well. When the two-time national champs look as mortal as they do, it’s not crazy to ask for a stub of the toe against Florida, Missouri, or Ole Miss. Any one of those (and additional losses from Florida if it’s the Gators) would set up November 18 as an SEC East title game, if the Vols can get there without another defeat. And if not, Tennessee would still get to take a shot at the number one team in the land.

There is incredibly meaningful football available in November, and not just next year in an expanded playoff field. To do that, the Vols have to finish October the way they started it. On the other side of frustration – for both the Vols and Kentucky – is an important football game. Move on, and you can keep moving on.

Go Vols.

There are so many stats to choose from to highlight the excellence of Tennessee’s defense on Saturday. But beyond just a single game, this one might speak best right now: at the halfway point of the 2023 campaign, Tennessee’s offense is ranked 18th in SP+.

The defense is ranked 15th.

Last year, the Vols finished second offensively in those ratings and 30th defensively. They were 7th and 47th in 2021. It’s a conversation we had both during and after last year’s 11-2 campaign: how good does a Tennessee defense need to be under Josh Heupel? Like, what’s good enough to win if the offense is going to score so many points?

Six games into this campaign, the questions about the defense have moved from floor to ceiling.

What’s good enough to win is, in fact, this defense when the offense is struggling. This defense, holding Texas A&M to 4.47 yards per play and 13 points.

In the second half, the Aggies went:

• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out, with the punt returned for a TD
• Field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 11
• Missed 50-yard field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 37
• Interception
• Interception

In national ratings, the Tennessee defense is:

• 11th in rushing yards per carry allowed, 2.98
• 14th in passing yards per attempted allowed, 5.9
• 10th in yards per play allowed, 4.41
• One of four teams in the country averaging 4+ sacks per game
• One of five teams in the country averaging more than 8.5 TFLs per game
• 23rd in opponent third down conversion percentage, 32.3%
• 11th in opponent fourth down conversion percentage, 29.4%
• 13th in opponent TD% in the red zone, allowing just 7 TDs on 17 attempts (41.2%)

How does all of that compare to what we’ve seen in Heupel’s first 2.5 seasons?

And for the, “Ain’t played nobody (with a good offense)!” in the back, I’d submit that so far this year, ain’t nobody played nobody! The margins, they are quite thin.

Tennessee Opponents in SP+ Offense

• Georgia 8th
• South Carolina 17th
• Alabama 19th
• Missouri 22nd
• Florida 30th
• Texas A&M 39th
• Kentucky 43rd
• UTSA 58th
• Vanderbilt 64th
• Virginia 108th
• UConn 126th

That’s right: the already-vanquished Gamecocks of South Carolina currently boast the best non-defending-champs offense on Tennessee’s schedule. And they scored two touchdowns via a short field and a busted play.

This brings us to the next big question: will it travel? It was late arriving in Gainesville and missed the gate entirely at South Carolina last season. But it was ready and willing in Baton Rouge.

How much is a Top 15 defense worth in Tuscaloosa?

Go Vols.

In trusty SP+, this is about as good as it gets: Texas A&M is 13th nationally in those ratings, 16.9 points better than the average team. The Vols are right behind them at 14th and 16.6. On a neutral field, the Aggies would be favored by 0.3 points.

In FPI, Texas A&M would be favored by 1.0 on a neutral field; the Aggies are 15th and the Vols 17th. I’ve really come to enjoy Kelley Ford’s ratings and visuals – there the Vols would be favored by 0.2 points on a neutral field, Tennessee 15th and A&M 16th. You get the idea.

The game, of course, will be played in Knoxville, and that means it’s -3 for the Vols in Vegas as of 6:20 Saturday morning. We will indeed see just how much Knoxville is worth in a few hours.

This will be the fifth game of Josh Heupel’s tenure played in toss-up range, with the line at +/- 3. (An honorable mention to the 2021 Pittsburgh game, which closed at Vols +3.5.)

There’s actually a nice trend in these games in Heupel’s tenure, with the lines squeaking ever so slightly in Tennessee’s favor:

• 2021 at Missouri +2.5, won 62-24 – the definitive “hello there” performance, which was followed by a 35-0 lead on South Carolina, which set up what became the first of many enormous football games…
• 2021 Ole Miss +1.5, lost 31-26 – the Vols just missed their first real opportunity to get a ranked win under Heupel…
• 2021 Kentucky -1, won 45-42 – but not the second
• 2022 LSU -2.5, won 40-13 – a mammoth, program-changing performance that was then eclipsed by an even more mammoth, even more program-changing one seven days later

Heupel is 4-3 in one-possession games at Tennessee, and 3-1 in these toss-ups…where, obviously, two of them got very un-toss-up shortly after kickoff.

Historically, he also caught these earlier than his predecessors. Missouri was game five of his first season; the aforementioned Pitt game was week two. Jeremy Pruitt was +3 against the Gators at home in his fourth game. Butch Jones didn’t see a line of less than seven points either way until the Vanderbilt/Kentucky closer in his first season. And Derek Dooley’s first team didn’t see a single-digit line until November! That was -2 against Ole Miss, a game Tyler Bray and the Vols won 52-14. It was Tennessee’s best performance against the spread until that Mizzou game two years ago.

The question then becomes, what do you do from there? Going back through Phil Steele’s against the spread data, I’ve got Phillip Fulmer at 25-15 in his career in games between +/- 3 at kickoff. That’s pretty good! He was also especially good from 2003-07, when the Vols might not have had such a decisive talent advantage compared to the 90s. At the moment, 2023’s closest historical comparisons in SP+ are the 1991 (Miracle at South Bend) and 2003 Vol squads, the latter of which split the SEC East three ways with Florida and Georgia. From 2003-07, Fulmer went 13-7 in Vegas toss-ups, including a ridiculous 8-2 in 2006 and 2007.

The house usually wins; there’s not much shame in toss-ups behaving exactly that way. Johnny Majors was 3-3-1 at UT in these games during his last four seasons, including a pair of SEC Championships. The best news for Tennessee is what kind of games you’re getting into toss-up range now. Much like LSU last year – much like South Carolina two weeks ago – this one can also serve as a gateway to something even more next Saturday. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to get in +3 territory in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens today. But considering our last three trips to Tuscaloosa went +24.5, +34, and +36? All of this continues to head in the right direction…and the Vols, of course, beat Bama last year at +9.

Today, all signs point to even in what should be a great day for college football. This Tennessee team has no unique experience in a really close game; if we’re just going by possessions, A&M played their first one-possession game last Saturday by virtue of a late field goal and a failed onside kick.

But both teams are already tested in meaningful games.

And there’s plenty of that to go around today.

Go Vols.