Gameday on Rocky Top

Though the Vols lost control of their own destiny in Athens, the path forward is still fairly simple. Tennessee is 10th in the AP poll, just a few votes ahead of Miami at 11. But the Hurricanes and #13 SMU are headed toward a winner take all ACC title game, likely sending one to an automatic bid and one outside the field.

Meanwhile, there’s a healthy distance in votes between the Vols and Ole Miss at #9, a two-loss SEC pecking order I’d expect to remain in the playoff committee: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee.

There is, obviously, an argument for Tennessee to be rated higher than Alabama, but Georgia muddies those waters in a three-way tie. If the conversation is between Tennessee and Ole Miss, Arkansas becomes the season’s most important talking point, which is not a place we want to be.

If the AP poll continues to be a mostly fair representation of the playoff committee’s thinking too, 10th will really mean the first team out, with three conference champions behind us.

Which means the Vols need to move up one spot.

One thing about this bubble, as opposed to the basketball one: we should probably get used to it. In the SEC, the odds of any team pulling off something like what Oregon has done this year are certainly lower. And other than 1998, I’m not sure any Tennessee team would’ve come to mid-November feeling like an absolute playoff lock unless we’re going back to facing the 90s versions of Kentucky and Vanderbilt at the end of the year.

But any one spot will do, of course. Here’s how that can happen. This uses FPI’s projected lines, with three points for home field advantage. And it doesn’t include anything from the ACC or Big 12, with those leagues projected to get just one spot each.

Saturday, November 23

Indiana at Ohio State (-10.5) – 12:00 PM – Fox

How much would Ohio State have to win by to drop the one-loss Hoosiers behind the two-loss Vols? It’s more than 10.5 for sure. Four touchdowns? Five? The ol’ eye test gets real valuable here.

Ole Miss (-9) at Florida – 12:00 PM – ABC

While Tennessee’s strength of schedule gets no help from both NC State and Oklahoma being 5-5, here come the Gators. Back-to-back upsets in Gainesville would put Florida a win over 1-9 Florida State away from a 7-5 season against the nation’s toughest schedule. But more than that, they’d knock the Rebels out of the playoff conversation and create space for Tennessee before sundown on Saturday.

UTEP at Tennessee (-41.5) – 1:00 PM – ESPN+

See, nothing to it!

Kentucky at Texas (-24.5) – 3:30 PM – ABC

The first of a handful of “not very likelies” involving teams ahead of Tennessee. Most of the teams we need to lose are moderately favored one Saturday, and heavily favored the next. Any lookahead here from the Horns?

Penn State (-10) at Minnesota – 3:30 PM – CBS

Here’s Penn State’s toughest challenge left, as Vol fans turn their eyes and ears back to the ol’ 3:30 CBS kick. If the Nittany Lions get their boats rowed, whatever their best win is, it’s not Alabama.

Army at Notre Dame (-21) – 7:00 PM – NBC

Should Army pull the upset off, we’ll want to watch out for a scenario where Boise State is ranked above Tennessee and the Cadets finish undefeated. They’d also have to go through Tulane in the AAC title game to get there.

Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma – 7:30 PM – ABC

Overall, Tennessee’s resume benefits from wins by Alabama and Georgia. But either school picking up a third loss could also clear a path for two-loss Tennessee.

Friday, November 29

Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-25.5) – 3:30 PM – ABC

Not very likely, but Egg Bowl, so we’ll see.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-19.5) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Not very likely, and even less Egg Bowl, but Georgia Tech is certainly the feistier opponent.

Saturday, November 30 (kickoff times TBD)

Tennessee (-9.5) at Vanderbilt

Gotta get this one right, or none of this matters.

Texas (-9.5) at Texas A&M

If A&M wins at Auburn this week, where they’re -2.5 in FPI, they can make their way to Atlanta with a win in this one. That could/should create a scenario where a 10-3 Aggies team who loses to Alabama is behind the Vols. Texas has just one loss, but from a resume standpoint should now clearly be behind Tennessee if they both finish with two. The Vols played Georgia closer in Athens than the Horns did in Austin, and again, Alabama.

Maryland at Penn State (-22.5)

Purdue at Indiana (-33)

A pair of unlikely Big Ten home upsets.

Notre Dame (-7) at USC

Though you’ll probably have to wait until the end of next week for it, if you’re looking for just one upset, statistically this is the most likely scenario. The Trojans have played seven one-possession games so far this year, an insane amount, and took Penn State to overtime in LA. Since losing to NIU and beating Louisville 31-24 in September, Notre Dame has won every game by at least three possessions. It’s an emotional back-to-back test for the Irish, but they passed with flying colors against Navy earlier this year.

Auburn at Alabama (-20.5)

Hugh Freeze coaches well against the Tide, but this would be an all-timer.

Most Likely Upsets by FPI

1. Notre Dame (-7) at USC November 30
2. Ole Miss (-9) at Florida November 23
3. Texas (-9.5) at Texas A&M November 30 (probably needs an additional A&M loss to Auburn or in Atlanta)
4. Penn State (-10) at Minnesota November 23

Either way, you’ve got incredibly relevant football to Tennessee in every television window this Saturday, plus two next Friday, and then perhaps a last/best chance on Saturday afternoon/evening. The Vols have to do their part. But we’ve still got plenty of chances to see someone else do theirs.

Go Vols.

This week during Big Orange Give, someone from the university gave me a Power T sticker for the letter T on my keyboard. It’s the simplest thing. And maybe these have been around for years and years and I’ve just been oblivious. But all week, it’s made me grin to look down and see it there between the R and the Y. It’s small, but it stands out.

What stands out in the football conversation this week? We’re all new to 12-team playoff committee rankings, and have very little experience listening for our name in playoff conversations at all. In that first bracket last week, it felt surreal to see us there, at least to me; the latest piece of gratitude for how far this place has come.

It was a similar feeling two seasons ago, when the Vols were atop the initial rankings. That too stood out and made me grin, Tennessee’s name with the number one next to it.

It didn’t last, for reasons that had much to do with Georgia. And that was okay; the ride was still exhilarating, still new, and opportunity was indeed still out there.

This set of rankings has led to more consternation. Again, we’re light on experience here, in part alongside the whole country. Everyone other than Oregon is probably feeling some anxiety. But I’ve heard a lot more this week on what will happen to the Vols if they lose than how we can, you know, win.

As the bubble creeps into our football vocabulary, so too does this idea from basketball: Saturday is probably the hardest ask. Plenty of great Tennessee teams have found their way to Rupp Arena in February, where we’ve pointed out the truth that, hey, beating this Kentucky team on the road is actually more challenging than anything we’d have to do in the NCAA Tournament. We knew coming in that winning at Georgia would be the most difficult Saturday of the season.

But don’t lose the plot. If you’re in the playoff conversation, you’re in the championship conversation. You’re here believing Tennessee can give themselves a chance to win the whole thing. In FPI and Kelley Ford’s ratings, the best team in the nation is Alabama. The Vols would be about +4 in Knoxville if we ran that back this weekend, which is about where it was when it actually happened, and it actually happened, again. In those ratings, the Vols should be about +6 in Athens this weekend instead of the +10 where we’re hanging out right now in real life.

But in this very real life, Tennessee can give themselves a chance to make anything actually happen. And if we’re there – especially if we’re there after all these years somewhere else – perhaps we should spend more time enjoying questions not about what’ll happen if we lose on Saturday, but how we can win.

Nico Iamaleava’s health and the uncertainty of his status complicates that conversation, and rightfully so. So let’s focus on what we do know:

Tennessee Defense National Rankings

Category	National Rank
Scoring Defense	5th
Yards Per Carry	5th
Yards Per Pass	17th
Yards Per Play	3rd
TFLs Per Game	7th
3rd Down Conv.	2nd
4th Down Conv.	6th
Red Zone Scoring	5th
Red Zone TD%	3rd
10+ Yard Plays	18th
20+ Yard Plays	8th
30+ Yard Plays	2nd

How many teams scored 20+ points on a Tennessee defense, 1989-present

• Four: 1989, 1996, 2005
• Three: 1993, 1998
• Zero: 2024

Again, that is absurd.

It’s been absurd all year, and it’s been somewhat obscured all year. In part because this team is elite in a different way than we thought they’d be. And in part because defense can be less exciting to talk about. Note the 1993 Vols up there; longtime readers here may already know I’m getting ready to say they’re the highest-rated team in SP+ in program history. But I/we always refer to them as “Heath Shuler’s Vols”, when in fact that defense – Shane Bonham, Scott Galyon, Ben Talley, DeRon Jenkins, Jason Parker, etc. – was flat getting after dudes all year too.

The only other Vol squad in the Top 25 era to surrender 20+ points just three times is the 1998 national champions. And even they had flashes of vulnerability to Donovan McNabb and Anthony Lucas; maybe Georgia’s talent will create similar opportunities. But you and I have both already seen this group hold Alabama’s offense – currently third in the nation in SP+ – to four yards per play.

Whatever happens on Saturday, we’ll have the conversation that follows it. Any version of that conversation will probably include some, “But what if we lose to Vanderbilt?!”; the bracket courts chaos.

But Tennessee’s defense has brought order all year, small font in preseason making the biggest, simplest difference every single Saturday.

Let’s worry about what’ll happen when we lose if we do. Until then, with this team and this defense? Let’s go win this thing.

Because that remains the biggest prize: the ability to say let’s go win them all.

Go Vols.

In a sentence or two, who was Tennessee thought to be at the start of the year?

An elite quarterback prospect could lead the offense back to Josh Heupel’s standard of excellence. The defense has an NFL pass rusher but questions in the secondary. Something like that, right?

Who is Tennessee today? An elite defense – not one player, but the whole unit, including the secondary. And an offense that, when it hits the big play? Look out.

The opportunities feel the same for both versions. Tennessee will come to November at 6-1, somewhere in the Top 10, and in every playoff conversation. Every team in the SEC now has a loss. The last two unbeatens in league play face each other in Aggieland Saturday night. The Vols control their own destiny.

The gap in perception between who we thought this team would be and who they actually are can naturally lead to knee-jerk uncertainty when a drive doesn’t go our way. But the fact that the Vols are exactly where we hoped they’d be even though they look different than we thought they would? I think that’s a credit to all involved.

Because who they also are is the team that beat Bama, again.

In the second half last night, Tennessee found those big plays:

• A 36-yard run by Dylan Sampson and 27-yard run by Nico Iamaleava on the first touchdown drive
• Nico to Dont’e Thornton for 55 yards on the next drive on 3rd-and-6
• Nico to Chris Brazzell for 16 and the score on 3rd-and-5

(There are so many great shots and videos of that play, including the photo on this post; shout out to whoever is running UT’s twitter for calling it “The ol’ Brazzell Dazzle!”)

In Hendon Hooker’s two seasons, the Vols averaged 5.6 and 5.9 plays of 20+ yards per game against SEC foes. Last year, that number dropped to 3.6. Halfway home this season, the Vols have 16 plays of 20+ yards in four SEC games: progress over last season, but not as high as what we remember or, probably, what we imagined.

But with this offense and this defense together?

Because even the Han Solos among us didn’t imagine this defense.

Tennessee Defense National Rankings

• Points Per Game: 4th
• Yards Per Carry: 2nd
• Yards Per Pass: 21st
• Yards Per Play: 2nd
• TFLs Per Game: 4th
• Third Down Conversions: 2nd
• Fourth Down Conversions: 5th
• Red Zone Scoring: 6th
• Red Zone TD%: 5th
• 20+ Yard Plays: 9th
• 30+ Yard Plays: 1st

That is absurd.

And all of that is happening without the Vols really dominating two of the stats we tend to default to defensively: Tennessee is just 54th nationally in sacks at 2.14 per game, and 40th nationally in turnovers gained with 11.

We have somewhere between six and ten games left in this season; plenty more story to be told here. But what this defense is doing so far, and what it just did against our two biggest rivals, would go on any list of the best you’ve ever seen.

The Vols are 2-1 against Alabama in the last three years, not seen since 2004-06. Four wins against Alabama and Florida in three years hasn’t been done since the Vols swept them in 2003 and 2004.

The Third Saturday in October is defined by streaks, one program excelling at the expense of the other in some ways. But in those in between years, when both programs are ranked? That’s happened just 13 times in 36 years of the AP Top 25. Of those 13 meetings, nine were decided by 14 points or less, and seven by one possession. We remember the big streak-busters: the Vols in ’95, Bama in ’02. Tennessee’s win two years ago carried 15 years of that weight and neared perfection from an entertainment perspective.

But most often, when both these teams are good, you get glorious imperfection. Alabama winning 24-19 in 1991, 17-10 en route to the title in 1992, then Tennessee breaking their winning streak with a 17-17 tie in 1993. Jay Graham’s run in 1996, the final points in a 20-13 chaotic thing of beauty. The Vols winning in Tuscaloosa 21-7 against Shaun Alexander in 1999, the Tide with the ugliest of all in 2005, 6-3.

This type of game is the standard when both programs are good but not perfect. And it’s much easier to be perfect when the other program isn’t good. Saturday fit that script to a giant power T.

Two years ago, Tennessee didn’t win because of luck: we missed an extra point and Bama gained a scoop and score. But the Vols also played what we thought at the time was about as well as we could play, and it was enough. This time, both teams struggled far more often, at times with themselves. But the stats tell the story: Tennessee outgained Alabama 414 to 314, Jalen Milroe needed 45 passes just to get 239 yards, and Dylan Sampson continued his legendary season with 139 yards on 26 carries. Tennessee won because they were the better team. And both of these teams can be better still.

That’s the bye week story for Tennessee. Keep getting better. But for us as fans, I think there’s also freedom from beating Florida and Alabama to reembrace this team not for who we thought they would be, but the real beauty of who they actually are. Because who they actually are is once again good enough to believe the answer to all our questions can be yes.

Go Vols.

In a season that feels entirely new because of the 12-team playoff, Tennessee’s first stumble also came via one of our least familiar methods. The question becomes, as always, “What will we do with it?”

The most familiar method for the season’s first loss is, of course, the Gators. Since SEC expansion in 1992 made us annual rivals, Florida handed Tennessee its first loss of the season 13 times in 32 years of divisional play. Add in the year before in 1991 and a pair of losses to Alabama as the first defeat in 1989 and 1990, and you get the theme we loved to hate: for most of our fandom, Tennessee’s most likely outcome for the first loss was falling to one of our biggest rivals. Over the years in any rivalry, you get a buffet of bitter defeats, including plenty to choose from in the categories below. But the nature of rivalry – and, for Tennessee, the proximity of the Florida game to the start of the schedule – established an uneasy rhythm. It fed the more irrational flames of “Majors can’t beat Bama/Fulmer can’t beat Florida”, and created a scenario where, even when Tennessee was really good, we didn’t often control our own destiny past September.

That’s the first big difference between what we’re familiar with and what happened last Saturday: not only is our season not defined by hoping Arkansas loses twice, but the expanded playoff gives room for more grace, and better destinies for more teams. This too can get misconstrued in the percentages and probabilities, which were much more fun to examine when the Vols were still undefeated. But at 4-1, Tennessee does indeed have everything left in front of it. It’s one more example of the journey as the truest destination: if you’re in the playoff hunt, you’re in the conversation to win the whole thing. And if you’re seriously entertaining those thoughts, you’re seriously entertaining victory every Saturday. The first-loss reflex we inherited is a loss of our own destiny. But in 2024? If you want control of your own destiny, you already have it.

So without the sting of rivalry, or losing streaks within those rivalries, or a narrow path to the title, why does that Arkansas loss hurt so much? I think a small part of it is because we’re really unaccustomed to having a game like that be our first defeat.

When it hasn’t been the Gators, it’s usually gone a few other ways:

• Season Opener/First Power Conference Game: 1994 UCLA, 2007 Cal, UCLA again in 2008 and 2009, and Pitt in 2021. Each of these was one you felt like the Vols could’ve/should’ve gotten at kickoff, and thus they all hurt in various ways. But because they came in Week 1 or 2, they carried none of the “I think we’re good because I’ve actually seen this team be good,” of last week.
• We were good, they were better: 2004 Auburn, 2015 Oklahoma, 2016 Texas A&M, 2020 Georgia, and 2022 Georgia. The “we were good” part refers to our thoughts on the Vols at kickoff, especially as it relates to 2020 Georgia. For different reasons each year, you didn’t leave any of these games feeling like the Vols couldn’t have a successful season; three of these years already included a win over Florida by the time we got to these games. 2015 Oklahoma is the hardest to place here, but that group made the playoff and those Vols were still quite capable.
• We were not so good, they were better: Oregon in 2010 and 2013, Oklahoma in 2014, and West Virginia in 2018 all featured the Vols with a first-or-second-year coach against a schedule made in happier times. These all made sense.

And the two outliers: 2019 Georgia State, which very much did not make sense. And the 1998 national champions, who are gloriously exempt from this exercise.

That leaves one other group of first losses. And, yep, these tend to hurt real good:

• Unranked upset with the Vols in the Top 10: 1992 Arkansas, 2001 Georgia, 2003 Auburn, 2024 Arkansas

The ’03 Auburn game is the one that hurts the least on sight here: the Tigers began the year ranked sixth, then started 0-2 and were unranked on October 4 when #7 Tennessee came calling, fresh off a win over Florida and an overtime victory against South Carolina. Auburn jumped ahead 28-7 before Casey Clausen almost led us back. The bulk of that Auburn roster turned into their undefeated juggernaut the following year. And the bulk of Tennessee’s story, at least in terms of losses, was written the following week in a 41-14 blowout to Georgia in Knoxville. So that one gets overshadowed, and Auburn’s talent was certainly elite. But keep in mind, if the Vols did complete that comeback, they would’ve won the SEC East outright instead of finishing in a three-way tie, and are likely ranked #4 playing #3 LSU in Atlanta, with the winner going to the BCS title game LSU eventually won. You never know.

The other two, you almost certainly know. The 1992 Arkansas game saw the Vols at #4 and Johnny Majors back on the sideline, a 25-24 loss in Knoxville that began a three-game, nine-point losing streak that cost him his job. And the ol’ Hobnailed Boot needs no introduction, which is good because I don’t care to write one.

It’s these initial losses – the ones after the Vols have proven their worth, then get hit with the unexpected – that can really do a number on us. And rightfully so.

The good news here, now even more true in a 12-team playoff: none of these games ended up being the defining moment for those Tennessee teams. The ’92 squad took the eventual national champions from Alabama to the wire the very next week, and still could’ve won the SEC East at South Carolina the next Saturday. That 2003 squad did follow up with a terrible, costly performance against Georgia. But they also won at Alabama in five overtimes, then won at Miami.

And here’s the thing about the Hobnailed Boot: ultimately, it didn’t matter. Tennessee is still in Atlanta playing LSU for the SEC title and a trip to the BCS Championship. That’s a whole other and much simpler conversation about the hardest losses ever, the ones with the most on the table. But at this stage of the game, the Vols were never defined by these moments.

And if we find ourselves too deep in the percentages this week and marinating in some form of, “Well dangit, now we have to beat Alabama or Georgia…”? If we’re serious about believing the playoff conversation is a real and regular goal for this program, we should be serious about embracing those kinds of games as opportunities more than stumbling blocks.

Speaking of rivalries and newness, you know who’s next. We had some fun with this chart a few years ago; here’s an updated version:

Tennessee-Florida Line History, 1990-2024

The Vols are -15.5 as I type on Tuesday night. It’s the biggest favorite Tennessee has been against Florida since at least 1990 and probably ever. It’s the third year in a row we’ve been favored over them, each by a margin larger than anything that came before 2022. And that comes two years after Florida was favored over us by more than anything that didn’t involve Vegas believing Urban Meyer might try to physically assault Lane Kiffin before kickoff.

Much the same as the Arkansas loss, I don’t know exactly what to do with all that because it’s so unfamiliar. But I know last Saturday hurt so much in part because this team already showed us so much. And I know this Saturday can be a very good time if the Vols continue to live into that potential.

I’m certainly grateful for the expanded grace a 12-team playoff affords. But more than anything, I’m grateful to be in the conversation, and to believe we can find this program here every year. Having that conversation means expecting to win. Which means it hurts when you don’t.

But I’m very excited to see what Tennessee does with that expectation against Florida Saturday night.

Go Vols.

Last year Tennessee fell out of the Top 25 after beating Vanderbilt to finish the regular season. The drop was one spot, from 25th to the first team receiving votes. Then the Vols were back in the poll one week later, and finished 17th after a triumphant New Year’s in Orlando.

That one week broke a streak of 28 straight poll appearances, which tied for the sixth-longest in program history via the good folks at College Poll Archive. So we’re currently at four polls without an incident, which makes for 32 out of 33.

It happens, even in the best of times: the second-longest streak on UT’s list came from 1989-1994, 86 weeks between back-to-back SEC titles from Johnny Majors and the beginning of the Phillip Fulmer era. The Vols fell out of the Top 25 in late September of ’94 after a 1-3 start featuring mostly Todd Helton at quarterback. They made the tag to the freshman Peyton Manning (with a side of Brandon Stewart), and the Vols reappeared in the Top 25 at season’s end following a 45-23 win over #17 Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.

So 86 weeks in, then 11 weeks out. And then 94 weeks in, the program record from the final poll in 1994 to mid-October in 2000.

We’ve got a ways to go from here to there; perhaps these Vols will be on their way thanks to another freshman quarterback. Those questions really start getting answered tomorrow night, when #14 Tennessee faces #24 NC State.

It’s that visual – Top 25 vs Top 25 at the bottom of your ticker and in the lead block on College Gameday – that still stands out to me. We’ve run these numbers before back when I was writing (much) more often, and I don’t know about you, but I still find them so incredibly meaningful.

When the AP poll went to a Top 25 in 1989, Tennessee played in 84 ranked vs ranked games over the next 19 seasons. That’s four or five a year on average. You just came to expect it; if, again, being in the hunt is the real prize, Tennessee was playing the games that mattered every single year, and winning enough of them to keep mattering.

And then, from 2008-2021, Tennessee played in eight ranked vs ranked games. Eight. And four of those were in four consecutive weeks in 2016. Plus 2012 Florida. 2015 Oklahoma. 2017 Florida. And 2020 Georgia. The Vols lost all four of those, which meant in part they wouldn’t see another ranked vs ranked game those years.

This Saturday, another opportunity arrives. And it will be the 12th ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played since the start of the 2022 season. Twelve, in two years and two Saturdays.

You never know for sure how long they’ll last, and you work like heck for today to become tomorrow. But make no mistake: they may not yet be old, but these days are indeed good.

Go Vols.

Opt-outs will make us rethink the way a list like this works, but Joe Milton will find his way to the spirit of the idea here:

Tennessee Full-Season Starters at QB, Last 20 Years

• Joe Milton, 2023 (regular season)
• Josh Dobbs, 2015 & 2016
• Tyler Bray, 2012 (Justin Worley subbed in during the loss to Vandy in Derek Dooley’s last game)
• Jonathan Crompton, 2009
• Erik Ainge, 2007

Andy Kelly, Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Tee Martin, and Casey Clausen gave the Vols the same face at quarterback every Saturday for 11 of 14 seasons from 1990-2003. Since then, it’s technically only happened with Ainge, Crompton, and Dobbs four times in 20 years. As Milton finishes his Tennessee career on his own terms, a tip of the cap to his steadfast nature. Other than Hendon Hooker, the last starting quarterback to throw 20+ TD passes with five or fewer interceptions was Peyton Manning. All the best to him in pursuit of the NFL.

As for Nico Iamaleava, he’ll pursue the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are second nationally in SP+ in that department, giving the five-star freshman real live first in his first meaningful action. Given our strength of schedule around here, a new QB facing a good team isn’t exactly a new idea:

Vol QB First Starts vs Ranked Teams, Post-Fulmer Era

• 2023 Nico Iamaleava vs #20 Iowa
• 2020 Harrison Bailey vs #6 Florida
• 2019 Brian Maurer vs #3 Georgia
• 2013 Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri
• 2013 Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida
• 2011 Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

The Georgia team Maurer faced finished the 2019 season with the best defense in the country in SP+; Iowa’s currently rates higher (8.2 points allowed vs the average team, compared to 10.0 for 2019 Georgia). So the Hawkeyes, at least in the spreadsheets, present as stiff of a defensive challenge as any Vol QB has seen in their first start (give or take your opinion of Peyton Manning vs ’94 Washington State if anyone wants to remember those days of 10-9 glory).

When we researched some of this as the Vols were trying to find their way at quarterback in 2019 & 2020, we found that sometimes that first step is a real doozy, where even future greats like Dobbs fail to produce a single offensive touchdown. If Iowa’s defense lives up to their name and controls the Citrus Bowl, it won’t spell certain doom for the 2024 Vol offense.

The biggest difference here, of course, is Tennessee.

This isn’t a struggling Vol team making a mid-season change at QB. Even at 8-4, this Tennessee team is plenty capable…and it’ll be exciting to see how Nico impacts the math.

If you want a semi-relevant historical comparison, the closest we can come is probably 2006, when Jonathan Crompton took over for an injured Erik Ainge to face LSU (who finished #1 in SP+ and #2 in defense) then Arkansas (15th in defense). Those Vols were good, game, and a bad call on a fumble away from taking down the Tigers in Knoxville. Those opponents obviously offered more in terms of offense than Iowa should as well, etc.

But in terms of an exciting young quarterback playing on a good Tennessee team going against a great defense? And just in terms of pure intrigue, the ways this performance could color the conversation headed into 2024?

This match-up is a pretty good one.

Go Vols.

Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam for taking home the 2023 regular season picks contest trophy! It was a really tight race this season, with his 2,309 confidence points narrowly eclipsing boro wvvol (2,302) and wedflatrock (2,301). Full Top 10 at the bottom of this post.

We’re on to the postseason (and Orlando!). You can find our bowl pick ’em back at Fun Office Pools; previous players should’ve received an email invite today. Find us in the comments if you have any questions – good luck out there!

Regular Season Top 10

1. birdjam 2309
2. boro wvvol 2302
3. wedflatrock 2301
4. UNDirish60 2295
5. PAVolFan 2292
6. Jahiegel 2282
7. cnyvol 2276
8. joeb_1 2259
9. TennRebel 2254
10. jfarrar90 2251
11. mmmjtx 2251

Tennessee opened as a 26-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week with an over/under of 55.5. Currently, those numbers are 27 and 57. Hat Guy thinks the spread is right on the nose, but he likes the over.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing an average of 35.1 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Virginia 31.8
• Connecticut 30.9
• Florida 27.9
• South Carolina 27.3
• UTSA 24.3
• Kentucky 24.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Virginia 49
• Connecticut 59
• Florida 16
• South Carolina 41
• Kentucky 33
• UTSA 45

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 146%

Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Virginia 23.8
• Connecticut 18
• South Carolina 27.7
• Kentucky 27.7
• Florida 29.6
• Missouri 32.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Virginia 13
• Connecticut 3
• South Carolina 20
• Kentucky 27
• Florida 29
• Missouri 36

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%

Estimated score: Tennessee 51.2, Vanderbilt 18.2

From Vanderbilt’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 21.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 21.5
• Missouri 23.1
• Mississippi 23.7
• Kentucky 24.3
• UNLV 24.5
• Wake Forest 26.5

Vanderbilt’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 15
• Missouri 21
• Mississippi 7
• Kentucky 28
• UNLV 37
• Wake Forest 20

Vanderbilt’s offensive premium/discount: 89%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 30 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 29.6
• Kentucky 27.7
• South Carolina 27.7
• Auburn 27.5
• Missouri 32.8
• UNLV 35.9

Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 38
• South Carolina 47
• Kentucky 45
• Auburn 31
• Missouri 38
• UNLV 40

Vanderbilt’s defensive premium/discount: 132%

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 19.4, Tennessee 39.6

Combined Estimated Score

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Tennessee	45.4	Vanderbilt	18.8	Tennessee	-26.6	241.9	71.5	279.1	235.3

Hat Guy thinks this one is a push, but he likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That looks about right to me.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 15, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 42, Vandy 14 (Vols -25.5.)

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -26 (~Vols 41, Commodores 15)
• Vegas current: Tennessee -27 (Vols 42, Commodores 15)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -26.6 (Vols 45, Commodores 19) (Vols barely cover opening, but barely not closing)
• SP+: Tennessee -25.5 (Vols 42, Commodores 14 (Vols don’t cover either spread, but only barely)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?