Smokey

Expected Win Total Analysis: After the postponement bye

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The Tennessee game with Texas A&M was one of many that got coronavirused this weekend, but several Vols’ opponents still found the field, and we can use that data to further inform our expectations of the team going forward. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

2020 SPM Season Predictions - After Week 11
Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9 W10 W11
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7 AUB -15.7 AUB -21.9
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21 TN -24 TN -18.7
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8 FL -24.9 FL -30.8
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7 TAMU -29.8 TAMU -27.2

Death spiral. But all it takes is one game with good results to change the predictions.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is 2.95.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
  • After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
  • After the bye week: 4.0
  • After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
  • After the A&M postponement bye: 2.95

Details: I kept everything where it was last week: Florida at 5%, Texas A&M and Auburn both at 15%, and Vanderbilt at 60%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-4, 5th in the SEC East

Hey, just find some way to beat Auburn this weekend, then take care of Vandy, and the Vols will have their chances to test themselves in a couple of house-money games against Top 5 opponents to close out the season.

The Vols’ future opponents

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West

The Tigers’ game against Mississippi State this weekend was also postponed due to its opponent’s quarantine issues. Because both teams got an extra week of practice, I’m keeping this game at 15%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-6, 7th in the SEC East

Kentucky was in control against the Commodores most of the game, although it got close late. But because I’d already moved this one to 60% (from 80%), I’m keeping it there for now.

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-1, 1st in the SEC East

It’s smooth sailing for the Gators the rest of the way with no ranked teams remaining on the schedule. Arkansas looked okay for a while against Florida, but in the end, the Gators made easy work of the Hogs, beating by 28 the team that just beat us by 11. Oof. I’m keeping this one at 5%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 5-1, 2nd in the SEC West

The Aggies missed their game with Tennessee due to their own quarantine issues, and they have an offensively high-powered Ole Miss team this weekend. We’ll see how that goes and what we and they do against Auburn, but for now I’m keeping this one at 15%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-5, 6th in the SEC East

We said in the 2020 Gameday on Rocky Top magazine, before everything changed, that 2020 was the year that Will Muschamp would get fired by his schedule. After a loss to Ole Miss this weekend, even the revised 2020 schedule got him, and not even empathy or financial challenges borne of the virus could save him.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Missouri had its second postponement of 2020 this week. Vanderbilt, which the Tigers missed earlier, has already been rescheduled for December 12, so that slot is taken. The SEC is extending regular season games through December 19, so the Tigers’ game with Georgia could be rescheduled for then, assuming Georgia isn’t scheduled to play in the SEC Championship the same day.

Georgia

Current record: 4-2, 2nd in the SEC East

Two losses to two ranked teams, nothing but misfits left to prove yourself. Been there.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-4, 3rd in the SEC East

Kentucky is ahead of Tennessee in the SEC East standings, but the Wildcats have Alabama and Florida back-to-back in the next two weeks. Unfortunately, the Vols also have Florida, plus A&M and a ranked Auburn team, so if they want to jump the Wildcats, they’re going to have to earn it. The bigger problem is Missouri, which is also ahead of the Vols in the standings and with an easier schedule (even if they reschedule the Georgia game they missed this week).

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West

The Tide missed their game with LSU this weekend. I’m assuming it will be rescheduled for December 12, but it’s not showing up that way on ESPN yet.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 3-4, 4th in the SEC West

See the discussion of Florida above.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

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