Expected Win Total Analysis: After Arkansas

Friends, we got problems, and our weekly reassessment of expected win totals is likely to reflect the extent of those problems. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Those are unhappy predictions. Two-to-four touchdown underdogs in three of the last four games. Woo.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 2.95.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
• After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
• After the bye week: 4.0
• After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95

Details: I have Florida at 5%, Texas A&M and Auburn both at 15%, and Vanderbilt at 60%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-4, 4th in the SEC East

Somehow, the loss to Arkansas did more damage to my expectations than I figured a toss-up game could. I think it’s that the first half made me believe they were who I thought they were and the second half made everybody forget everything. Apart from Vanderbilt, Arkansas should have been the easiest out in the back half of the season, and an almost unanimous toss-up turned from a brewing confidence-builder to an 11-point loss in the span of 15 minutes. The Vols can still find themselves, but if they don’t, they’re in real trouble most of the rest of the way.

Bottom line for me, their own inconsistency is reducing expectations pretty significantly.

The Vols’ future opponents

Texas A&M

Current record: 5-1, 2nd in the SEC West

The Aggies made it look easy against the Gamecocks, so we’re going to have to double dip on this one, docking the Vols 10% and crediting A&M 10%. This one’s moving from 35% to 15% for me.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Off this week. I’m moving this game 25% to 15%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-5, 7th in the SEC East

Vanderbilt appears to be who we thought they were. But we appear not to be, so I’m moving this one from 80% to 60%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East

I think I have sighed at least 100 times today, no exaggeration. On the bright side, the Vols are going to get an opportunity for a really big win when they play Florida. Examining the empty part of the cup, though, the Gators appear to be the main challenger to Alabama this year, so yeah, it’s really, really unlikely to happen. Awesome. I’m moving this one from 10% to 5%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-4, 5th in the SEC East

Clobbered by the team we’re playing next week. Ugh.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Off this week.

Georgia

Current record: 4-2, 2nd in the SEC East

I’m all for seeing another loss on Georgia’s 2020 resume and everything, but if it means the Gators get a win, well, the world can be a hard and cruel place. Also, the Dawgs were down several key defenders, so maybe they just got 2020’d. Also also, we figured in the preseason that the offense would be their undoing, and it looks like maybe it’s turning out that way. It’s just that Stetson Bennett did a good job of hiding that for a few games.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-4, 5th in the SEC East

Also off this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West

Off.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 3-3, 4th in the SEC West

Should be 4-2 and tied with Auburn (but with a head-to-head tiebreaker) for 3rd in the West.

One more: Sigh.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.