Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point underdog to Auburn this week, and as of Wednesday morning, the line is currently Tennessee +11. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.
Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20.7
Auburn’s Scoring Offense this year: 28.3
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.5
Auburn’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.8
From the perspective of Tennessee
The Auburn scoring defense of 22.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:
- Alabama 22
- Kentucky 21.3
Tennessee scored 17 points against Alabama and 7 points against Kentucky. Combined, that’s 55% of what those teams usually give up, which puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Auburn at 12.6.
The Auburn scoring offense of 28.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:
- Georgia 29
- South Carolina 27.3
Tennessee allowed 44 points to Georgia and 27 points to South Carolina. Combined, that’s 126% of what those teams usually get, which puts the estimated points for Auburn against Tennessee at 35.7.
Estimated score: Tennessee 12.6, Auburn 35.7
From the perspective of Auburn
The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.5 is most similar to the following prior Auburn opponents:
- Arkansas 31.4
- LSU 33.6
Against Arkansas, Auburn scored 30 points against the Hogs and 48 points against the Tigers, which combined is 120% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Auburn against Tennessee 37.8.
The Tennessee scoring offense of 20.7 is most similar to the following prior Auburn opponents:
- Kentucky 23.3
- Arkansas 26
Against Kentucky, Auburn allowed 13 points to Kentucky and 28 points to Auburn. Combined, that’s 83% of what those teams usually get, which puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Auburn at 17.2.
Estimated score: Auburn 37.8, Tennessee 17.2
SPM Final Estimates
Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:
SPM Final estimated score: Auburn 36.8, Tennessee 14.9
SPM Final estimated spread: Auburn, -21.9
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 10.4
All of that puts this game into the Statsy Preview Machine’s sweet spot, meaning if it had a chest, it would beat it.
Just for fun, we’ve also added Passing and Rushing Yards predictions to the Machine this week. Those numbers for this week:
- Tennessee Rushing Yards: 114
- Tennessee Passing Yards: 139
- Auburn Rushing Yards: 144
- Auburn Passing Yards: 191
Tennessee’s offensive performance against Kentucky’s defense is as bothersome as a comp as it was on the field. If you run the Machine with three comps instead of two, that 55% number increases to 70%, and Tennessee’s overall points increases from 14.9 to 17.6. Interestingly, running with three comps also decreases Auburn’s points from 36.8 to 31.8, perhaps due to Tennessee’s varied defensive performance against Georgia and South Carolina and/or Auburn’s varied offensive performance against Arkansas and LSU. But even with the score spit out by three comps — Auburn 31.8, Tennessee 17.6 — you have a spread of Auburn -14.2, still covering. Just for fun, running the machine with no limit on comps spits out a score of Auburn 29.8, Tennessee 16.3 and makes Auburn a 13.5-point favorite.
Because both teams have been pretty inconsistent this season, I’m going with the no-limit-on-comps result: Auburn 30, Tennessee 16, which has Auburn winning by 14 points. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Auburn covers against the Vols this week.
Other predictions from other systems
With the Vols an 11.5-point underdog and an over/under of right around 50, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Auburn 31, Tennessee 19.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Auburn by 13.7, so he’ll be picking Auburn to cover as well.
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine doesn’t know it’s a Vols fan, so it has no emotion about being so confident of another disappointing Saturday for the good guys. I am a sentient being with mostly orange and smokey grey laundry, and so I am able to come to the same conclusion and yet hope we are both wrong, wrong, wrong.
- Vegas: Auburn 31, Tennessee 19 (Auburn -11.5)
- SP+: Auburn -13.7 (Auburn covers)
- GRT’s SPM: Auburn 37.8, Tennessee 14.9 (Auburn covers)
- Me: Auburn 30, Tennessee 16 (Auburn covers)
Season results on Tennessee games
- Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
- Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
- Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
- Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
- Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
- Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.
What do y’all think?