Tennessee opened as a 20-point underdog to Alabama this week, and as I’m writing this, the line is currently Tennessee +21. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.
From the perspective of Tennessee
Each team has played four games, so the SPM is using only 2020 data.
- Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 23.5
- Alabama’s Scoring Offense this year: 48.5
- Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.3
- Alabama’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8
Tennessee’s offense against Alabama’s defense
The Alabama scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- South Carolina 24.5
- Kentucky 20
Tennessee scored only 7 points against Kentucky [FLAG — see below], but 31 against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 85% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama 24.4.
Tennessee’s defense against Alabama’s offense
The Alabama scoring offense of 48.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Georgia 33
- South Carolina 30.5
Georgia got 44 and South Carolina got 27 against Tennessee. Combined, that’s 112% of what those teams usually score. So . . . estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee: 54.3
Estimated score: Tennessee 24.4, Alabama 54.3
From the perspective of Alabama
Alabama’s offense against Tennessee’s defense
The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.3 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Texas A&M 29
- Missouri 38
Alabama scored 38 points against Missouri but put 52 on Texas A&M. Together, that’s 134% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee 39.2.
Alabama’s defense against Tennessee’s offense
The Tennessee scoring offense of 23.5 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Missouri 25.3
- Texas A&M 27.5
Missouri got only 19 points against Alabama, and Texas A&M got only 24. Combined, that’s 81% of what those teams usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama: 19
Estimated score: Alabama 39.2, Tennessee 19
SPM Final Estimates
Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:
SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 21.7
SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -25.1
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1
That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.
Eyeball adjustments
Honestly, that looks about right to me. If there’s something to quibble about, it’s using Kentucky as a scoring defense comp from Tennessee’s perspective, as the Vols getting only 7 points in that game was (hopefully) an anomaly.
If you use all of Tennessee’s 2020 games as defensive comps instead, the offense is scoring 92% of what their opponents usually give up. If you remove the Kentucky game, that number is 106%. So, let’s call it 100%. Against Alabama, you’d expect the Vols to score what Alabama usually gives up, which is 28.8. That would make the score from Tennessee’s perspective Tennessee 28.8, Alabama 54.3, and that would change the final calculation to Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 23.9, a spread of 22.9.
Although that’s not much of a difference, I’ll go ahead and go with it and make my own prediction Alabama 47, Tennessee 24. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Alabama will probably cover the 20- to 21-point spread this week.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas had Alabama as a 20-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 64, that translates to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 22.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama by 18.5 (Tide 37, Vols 19) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning. He’s using a 21-point spread and thus does not like the Tide to cover.
Bottom line
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Alabama will cover both the opening 20-point and the current 21-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.
- Vegas: Alabama 42, Tennessee 22 (Tide -20)
- SP+: Alabama 37, Tennessee 19 (doesn’t cover)
- GRT’s SPM: Alabama 47, Tennessee 22 (covers)
- Me: Alabama 47, Tennessee 24 (covers)
Season results on Tennessee games
- Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
- Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
- Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
- Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
What do y’all think?