Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 12-15 (44.44%) overall, 6-5 (54.55%) in Category 2, and 4-1 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 69-73 (48.59%) in Category 1, 31-29 (51.67%) in Category 2, and 15-12 (55.56%) in Category 3.
The GRT SPM and SP+ had identical records this week, as SP+ also went 12-15 against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use. Both systems also had identical records using the spreads that SP+ uses: SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads for the second week in a row, as did the GRT machine. All of that said, SP+ is still way ahead of our machine for the season with a record of 82-60 (57.75%) overall (using our spreads). Using its own spreads, SP+ is 54% for the season.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 8 of the 2020 college football season. For what it’s worth, I am very wary of all of the Big 10 games, as our machine often isn’t especially good at the beginning of a season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 8 Picks
Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Texas State | BYU | BYU | -29.5 | BYU | -29.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Auburn | Mississippi | Auburn | -9.5 | Auburn | -8.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Florida Atlantic | Marshall | Marshall | -13.5 | Marshall | -11.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Penn State | Indiana | Penn State | -6.5 | Penn State | -8.2 | Covers |
| Georgia State | Troy | Troy | -1.5 | Troy | -3.2 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | UAB | UAB | -1.5 | UAB | -3.3 | Covers |
| Georgia Tech | Boston College | Boston College | -4 | Boston College | -1.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Michigan | Minnesota | Michigan | -3 | Minnesota | -0.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Middle Tennessee | Rice | Rice | -2 | Middle Tennessee | -1.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Kansas | Kansas State | Kansas State | -17.5 | Kansas State | -21.3 | Covers |
| Rutgers | Michigan State | Michigan State | -16.5 | Michigan State | -20.4 | Covers |
| Chattanooga | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | -14 | Western Kentucky | -18 | Covers |
| Notre Dame | Pittsburgh | Notre Dame | -9.5 | Notre Dame | -5.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oklahoma | TCU | Oklahoma | -5.5 | Oklahoma | -1.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tulane | UCF | UCF | -17.5 | UCF | -12.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Alabama | Tennessee | Alabama | -20 | Alabama | -25.1 | Covers |
| Louisiana Tech | UTSA | Louisiana Tech | -2.5 | UTSA | -3.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Houston | Navy | Houston | -13.5 | Houston | -19.7 | Covers |
| Arkansas State | Appalachian State | Appalachian State | -10 | Appalachian State | -17.4 | Covers |
| Syracuse | Clemson | Clemson | -38.5 | Clemson | -31 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisiana-Monroe | South Alabama | South Alabama | -13.5 | South Alabama | -21.4 | Covers |
| Florida State | Louisville | Louisville | -6.5 | Florida State | -1.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Virginia Tech | Wake Forest | Virginia Tech | -6.5 | Wake Forest | -1.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Utah State | Boise State | Boise State | -15.5 | Boise State | -24.3 | Covers |
| Maryland | Northwestern | Northwestern | -7.5 | Maryland | -1.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Illinois | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -18.5 | Wisconsin | -8.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| UNLV | San Diego State | San Diego State | -14.5 | San Diego State | -4.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Southern | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -4.5 | Coastal Carolina | -15 | Covers |
| North Carolina State | North Carolina | North Carolina | -14.5 | North Carolina | -3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Hawai'i | Fresno State | Fresno State | -3.5 | Hawai'i | -8.3 | Doesn't cover |
| UTEP | Charlotte | Charlotte | -14 | Charlotte | -1.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Virginia | Miami (Florida) | Miami (Florida) | -10.5 | Miami (Florida) | -22.7 | Covers |
| Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | -4 | Oklahoma State | -16.6 | Covers |
| Iowa | Purdue | Iowa | -3.5 | Iowa | -16.7 | Covers |
| Temple | Memphis | Memphis | -12.5 | Memphis | -25.8 | Covers |
| Cincinnati | SMU | Cincinnati | -1.5 | Cincinnati | -14.9 | Covers |
| Southern Mississippi | Liberty | Liberty | -10.5 | Liberty | -24.3 | Covers |
| Kentucky | Missouri | Kentucky | -6 | Kentucky | -20.3 | Covers |
| Tulsa | South Florida | Tulsa | -8.5 | Tulsa | -23.2 | Covers |
| Wyoming | Nevada | Wyoming | -3.5 | Wyoming | -19 | Covers |
| West Virginia | Texas Tech | West Virginia | -3 | West Virginia | -19.4 | Covers |
| Baylor | Texas | Texas | -10.5 | Baylor | -7.4 | Doesn't cover |
| South Carolina | LSU | LSU | -7.5 | South Carolina | -10.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Air Force | San Jose State | Air Force | -7.5 | Air Force | -29.1 | Covers |
| Mercer | Army | Army | -31 | Army | -53.4 | Covers |
| Nebraska | Ohio State | Ohio State | -12.5 | Ohio State | -45.2 | Covers |
There are 13 (!) Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Note, though, that there are some Big 10 games of which to be wary.
What are you favorite games this week?