Tennessee opened as a 1-point favoriate over Arkansas this week, and as of Friday morning, the line is currently Tennessee -2. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.
Scoring offense and scoring defense for each team
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 22.2
Arkansas’s Scoring Offense this year: 24.6
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 33
Arkansas’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8
From the perspective of Tennessee
The Arkansas scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- South Carolina 30
- Missouri 33
Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 105% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 30.2.
The Arkansas scoring offense of 24.6 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Missouri 22.6
- Kentucky 20.8
Tennessee allowed Kentucky 34 points but Missouri only 12. Combined, that’s 106% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 26.1.
Estimated score: Tennessee 30.2, Arkansas 26.1
From the perspective of Arkansas
The Tennessee scoring defense of 33 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Mississippi State 29.6
- Texas A&M 29.4
Arkansas scored 21 points against Mississippi State but 31 points against Texas A&M. Combined, that’s 88% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 29.
The Tennessee scoring offense of 22.2 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Auburn 28.3
- Georgia 29.2
Arkansas allowed Auburn 30 points and Georgia 37 points. Combined, that’s 116% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 25.8.
Estimated score: Arkansas 29, Tennessee 25.8
SPM Final Estimates
Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee, -.5
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: .5
That’s basically the equivalent of a shrug from the Statsy Preview Machine. It basically agrees with Vegas. If you’re going strictly by the numbers, it’s saying the Vols won’t cover a 1-point spread, but will still win. A push on a one-point game is a recipe for thrills or heartburn, depending on your palate.
Eyeball adjustments
Initially, I flagged the machine for using Missouri and Kentucky as scoring offense comps from Tennessee’s perspective because the Vols’ defensive results against those two teams were quite inconsistent. Kentucky scored a little less than double what it usually gets (due to a lot of defensive points hidden in the score), while Missouri scored a little more than half. On the other hand, Arkansas can score defensively as well, so maybe it’s a perfect comp.
Plus, if you use season-long comps instead of the two closest comps, the number would actually be about the same anyway: 111% instead of 106%. So, Arkansas’ estimated points would be 27.3 instead of 26.1. Because of that, I’m just going to trust the machine here. What will matter most in this game is which Tennessee defense shows up: the one that played the first two games of the season or the one that played the last three. Fingers crossed for the former.
Bottom line, the machine’s prediction, wonky as it sounds, checks out, and I’m not making any eyeball adjustments for my own pick this week: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that the Vols win a close one and don’t cover the meager spread.
Other predictions from other systems
With the Vols a 1-point favorite and an over/under of around 53, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 26-24 (Tennessee -2) and gives them a 55% chance of winning. He’s using a 1.5-point spread and thus barely likes Tennessee to cover.
Bottom line
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine only has an opinion on this game because I put a gun to its head: It thinks Tennessee will beat Arkansas but won’t cover either a 1- or a 1.5-point spread. I agree with the machine. Neither of us are at all confident about it, as both the game itself and the question of whether the Vols cover appear too close to call.
- Vegas: Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26 (Vols -1)
- SP+: Tennessee 26-24 (Vols cover, but barely)
- GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5 (Vols don’t cover)
- Me: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27 (push)
Season results on Tennessee games
- Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
- Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
- Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
- Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
- Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
What do y’all think?