Why does it feel like things constantly go against the Vols? Because in one of football’s most telling statistics, things have indeed gone against Tennessee for a very long time.

The 2020 Vols are -3 in turnovers through seven games: 8 takeaways, 11 giveaways. Statistical comparisons are difficult this year, with teams playing an uneven number of games. And it’s fruitless to compare this season to others outright: you tend to look worse when an FCS opponent isn’t on the schedule.

But we can compare what these Vols are doing to what their predecessors did in conference play, the most helpful comparison in a year in need of understanding.

And when it comes to turnover margin in SEC play, the Vols have been very bad for a very long time.

Everything feels worse this year because so many of Tennessee’s turnovers are getting returned for touchdowns. Especially against Auburn, as Jeremy Pruitt noted, that play could’ve been the difference between winning and losing. But to find the kind of success this program is hungry for, the Vols will have to do more than stop throwing the occasional pick six.

The Vols haven’t had a positive turnover margin in SEC play since 2009. They broke even the following year, and have been in the negative in each of the nine years since, and three in the hole in 2020. From 2011-2020, the Vols are -42 in turnovers in 79 SEC games.

Winning football, this is not.

The turnover volume this year isn’t unusual, but that’s only because Tennessee has been so bad at it for so long:

(data via SportSource Analytics)

So all these things can be true: the Vols have been especially crushed by pick sixes and poorly-timed turnovers this season. Jarrett Guarantano continues to struggle with quality, not quantity when he turns it over. But the Vols have been on the wrong side of this conversation for a literal decade, so saying this year isn’t unusual carries the connotation that we’re used to giving away a possession every other game.

To be sure, one game can swing the conversation. The 2015 Vols finished 28th nationally in turnover margin in all games by going +4 in the Outback Bowl against Northwestern. The 2016 Vols went +4 against Virginia Tech, -4 at Texas A&M, -3 at South Carolina, +4 against Missouri. Lane Kiffin’s team did this best in league play, but only after an excruciating -3 against UCLA. But overall, the Vols haven’t landed in the black since then.

We struggle to make any good comparison to this year, but the closest in football might be 2005. The stakes were much higher then as a preseason Top 5 team and the defending SEC East champs. But the Vols never got the quarterback situation figured out between Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen, and finished a disastrous -7 overall in turnover margin, including catastrophic fumbles at the goal line against Alabama and South Carolina that cost the Vols both games.

If you’re trying to piece together what went wrong this year, the most simple explanation is the defensive touchdowns allowed. But to get where we all want to go, the program has to get on the right side of the turnover battle. Create more havoc defensively: the Vols haven’t finished inside the Top 30 in total takeaways since 2010. And find a better sweet spot offensively between taking no chances and putting ourselves in a bad situation.

Last week wasn’t the best for the GRT Statsy Preview Machine. Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 18-23 (43.9%) overall, 5-7 (41.67%) in Category 2, and 4-2 (66.67%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 189-172 (52.35%) in Category 1, 73-64 (53.28%) in Category 2, and 36-30 (54.55%) in Category 3. For the past few weeks, we’ve been keeping track of a sort of “Category 4” group, which consists only of Category 3 games that also agree with SP+. The three-week tally for those is 9-0.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 20-21 (48.78%) overall for the week.

SP+, on the other hand, had an excellent week, going 25-16 (61%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 191-166-6 (53.4%). Against our spreads, it was 23-18 (56.10%) for the week and is 204-157 (56.51%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 13 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 13 Picks

According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are a whopping 14 Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:

• Georgia at South Carolina (Georgia -18.5)
• Utah at Arizona State (Utah +6.5)
• Southern Miss at UAB (UAB -17)
• SMU at East Carolina (SMU -10.5)
• Coastal Carolina at Texas State (Coastal Carolina -16)
• UTEP at Rice (Rice -8)
• Florida Atlantic at MTSU (Florida Atlantic -6.5)

As I said above, let’s call those Category 4 games. I’ve been tracking those for three weeks (and posting them for for two), and over that time they are 9-0, which of course means they’ll go 0-7 this week. 🙂

Another game, another ouch. The Vols’ 30-17 loss to the Auburn Tigers Saturday night was another gut punch to players, coaches, and fans, as mistakes erased forever some measure of real progress. Pro tip: Don’t season your Thanksgiving meal with poop flakes. Only a little will ruin the whole day.

History will record this one as the game where Tennessee lost when Jarrett Guarantano threw yet another pick six, this one a 100-yarder. It was essentially a mashup of the worst of this year’s Kentucky game — where Guarantano threw back-to-back pick-sixes — and the worse of last year’s Alabama game — where Guarantano’s goal-line fumble was returned for a touchdown.

A turnover is bad enough. A turnover that results in points for the other team is worse. And a turnover that results in points for the other team while also depriving you of yours, well, that’s almost as bad as it gets. I say almost, because when that single play is the difference in the scoreboard at the end of the game, that’s as bad as it gets.

There were other mistakes. A usually-reliable but currently-gimpy Brent Cimaglia missed two field goals. And the defense totally blew coverage on a play to gift Auburn one of its touchdowns.

But if the only thing you erase is the pick-six, you would add 3 or 7 points to the Vols’ ledger and subtract 7 from Auburn’s, and you’d end up with either a single-point Vols victory or a 3-point game that could go either way in the fourth-quarter.

Instead, the pick-six will be the headline and it’s the progress that will be erased. Because part of what made this result so painful is that it came in a game where the team actually played well. You know, except for the mistakes.

The Vols had 28 first downs to Auburn’s 23. They converted 60% of their third downs. They racked up 222 rushing yards to Auburn’s 165 and 242 passing yards to Auburn’s 220. They committed fewer penalties and were even on the number of turnovers.

Eric Gray ran 22 times for 173 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per carry, and added another 49 yards on three catches. Guarantano was 15-of-23 for 156 yards and Harrison Bailey was 7-of-10 for 86. Eight different players had double-digit receiving yards. And the offensive line was creating holes all night long like we’ve expected them to do all season long.

But all of it was erased by a 14-point swing in a 13-point game on a single play. Oof.

For much of the summer, we hoped for any football at all, and there are now only three Tennessee games remaining in the 2020 season. Sure, any or all of them could continue to disappoint. But it’s also possible that they could be enjoyable, if only this team can keep the progress and begin to erase the mistakes instead.

The Vols’ impoverishment on the money down in 2020 is well-documented and well-known. But just how bad is the situation, and could the Vols get a little richer this week against Auburn?

First, the bad news:

Some helpful context: The average third-down conversion percentage in 2020 is about 41%. The Vols’ current rate of 27% ranks them as No. 119 in the nation. That’s bad.

But Tennessee’s played some pretty good defenses, right? Um . . .

. . . yes and no? When it comes to defending third down, Missouri and Georgia are better than average, but Alabama, Kentucky, and Arkansas are all right at the average, and South Carolina is worse. So Tennessee’s dismal 27% third-down conversion percentage was basically compiled against average competition.

Wait, I thought you said there was good news

If you’re looking for something to be hopeful about, here it is: Tennessee’s offense may currently be ranked among the worst in the nation at converting third downs, but Auburn’s defense is currently ranked among the worst in the nation at defending them as well.

Here’s the same table with Auburn added:

So what, right? What’s an extra third down conversion or two really worth? Maybe more than you think.

The average offense in the SEC right now is converting only six third downs per game. Texas A&M — the best team in the SEC at converting third downs and also the second-best in the nation — only converts just over eight per game. With so few per game, third down conversions are at an absolute premium. While converting a third down doesn’t necessarily mean that drive is going to result in a score, the opposite is usually true: every failure to convert one means a lost opportunity for more points. Perhaps you can save the day with a fourth-down attempt and conversion, but that’s a high risk/reward strategy (depending on factors like field position and time remaining), and maybe you can settle for a field goal, but doing so is still a missed opportunity at four more points. Convert the third down, and you don’t have to consider any of that; you just keep going.

Tennessee’s offense is averaging just under four third-down conversions per game. That’s bad, but it’s only two away from average and four away from the best in the nation. If the Vols can just get one or two more against an Auburn defense struggling on third downs, it could make a dramatic difference.

Go Vols.