| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads | SP+ spreads | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Week 12 | 18-23 (43.90%) | 5-7 (41.67%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 20-21 (48.78%) |
| Season | 189-172 (52.35%) | 73-64 (53.28%) | 36-30 (54.55%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Week 12 | 23-18 (56.10%) | 25-16 (61%) | ||
| Season | 204-157 (56.51%) | 191-166-6 (53.4%) |
Last week wasn’t the best for the GRT Statsy Preview Machine. Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 18-23 (43.9%) overall, 5-7 (41.67%) in Category 2, and 4-2 (66.67%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 189-172 (52.35%) in Category 1, 73-64 (53.28%) in Category 2, and 36-30 (54.55%) in Category 3. For the past few weeks, we’ve been keeping track of a sort of “Category 4” group, which consists only of Category 3 games that also agree with SP+. The three-week tally for those is 9-0.
Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 20-21 (48.78%) overall for the week.
SP+, on the other hand, had an excellent week, going 25-16 (61%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 191-166-6 (53.4%). Against our spreads, it was 23-18 (56.10%) for the week and is 204-157 (56.51%) for the season.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 13 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 13 Picks
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Louisiana Tech | Florida International | Louisiana Tech | -5.5 | Louisiana Tech | -5.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Miami (Ohio) | Akron | Miami (Ohio) | -13.5 | Miami (Ohio) | -13 | Doesn't Cover |
| Cincinnati | Temple | Cincinnati | -35 | Cincinnati | -34.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Vanderbilt | Missouri | Missouri | -18.5 | Missouri | -17.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Rutgers | Purdue | Purdue | -10.5 | Purdue | -9.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | Oklahoma | -10 | Oklahoma | -11.1 | Covers |
| Louisville | Boston College | Louisville | -1 | Boston College | -0.1 | Doesn't cover |
| North Carolina State | Syracuse | North Carolina State | -14.5 | North Carolina State | -16 | Covers |
| Kent State | Buffalo | Buffalo | -9 | Buffalo | -10.6 | Covers |
| Ohio State | Illinois | Ohio State | -29 | Ohio State | -27 | Doesn't Cover |
| UCF | South Florida | UCF | -25 | UCF | -22.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Wyoming | UNLV | Wyoming | -13.5 | Wyoming | -10.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Nevada | Hawai'i | Nevada | -7 | Nevada | -4.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arizona | UCLA | UCLA | -9 | UCLA | -12 | Covers |
| Memphis | Navy | Memphis | -11.5 | Memphis | -8.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oregon | Oregon State | Oregon | -16.5 | Oregon | -12.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas Tech | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | -12.5 | Oklahoma State | -16.4 | Covers |
| Pittsburgh | Clemson | Clemson | -26 | Clemson | -22 | Doesn't Cover |
| Kansas State | Baylor | Baylor | -4.5 | Baylor | -0.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Southern | Georgia State | Georgia State | -1 | Georgia Southern | -3.7 | Doesn't cover |
| North Texas | UTSA | UTSA | -5 | UTSA | -9.8 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Louisiana-Monroe | Louisiana-Lafayette | -25.5 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -20.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Troy | Appalachian State | Appalachian State | -16.5 | Appalachian State | -11.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Alabama | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -7 | Arkansas State | -1.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Nebraska | Iowa | Iowa | -14.5 | Iowa | -20.5 | Covers |
| Stanford | California | California | -1 | Stanford | -5.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Iowa State | Texas | Texas | -2.5 | Iowa State | -3.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Tulsa | Houston | Houston | -2 | Tulsa | -4.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Bowling Green | Ohio | Ohio | -24.5 | Ohio | -17.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tennessee | Vanderbilt | Tennessee | -9 | Tennessee | -16.3 | Covers |
| Auburn | Alabama | Alabama | -9.5 | Alabama | -16.9 | Covers |
| LSU | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | -14 | Texas A&M | -21.5 | Covers |
| Virginia | Florida State | Virginia | -9.5 | Virginia | -17.2 | Covers |
| Mississippi State | Mississippi | Mississippi | -11.5 | Mississippi | -3.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Duke | Georgia Tech | Duke | -1.5 | Duke | -9.7 | Covers |
| Massachusetts | Liberty | Liberty | -37.5 | Liberty | -45.7 | Covers |
| Colorado State | Air Force | Air Force | -7.5 | Air Force | -16.2 | Covers |
| Maryland | Indiana | Indiana | -14 | Indiana | -23 | Covers |
| Georgia | South Carolina | Georgia | -18.5 | Georgia | -27.7 | Covers |
| Western Kentucky | Charlotte | Charlotte | -1 | Charlotte | -10.7 | Covers |
| New Mexico | Utah State | New Mexico | -3.5 | New Mexico | -13.3 | Covers |
| TCU | Kansas | TCU | -24.5 | TCU | -34.7 | Covers |
| Colorado | USC | USC | -10.5 | USC | 0 | Doesn't Cover |
| Ball State | Toledo | Toledo | -9 | Toledo | -19.8 | Covers |
| Utah | Arizona State | Arizona State | -6.5 | Utah | -4.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Southern Mississippi | UAB | UAB | -17 | UAB | -28.3 | Covers |
| SMU | East Carolina | SMU | -10.5 | SMU | -22.2 | Covers |
| Northwestern | Michigan State | Northwestern | -10.5 | Northwestern | -22.4 | Covers |
| Coastal Carolina | Texas State | Coastal Carolina | -16 | Coastal Carolina | -28 | Covers |
| UTEP | Rice | Rice | -8 | Rice | -20.4 | Covers |
| Florida Atlantic | Middle Tennessee | Florida Atlantic | -6.5 | Florida Atlantic | -20.1 | Covers |
| Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | Central Michigan | -4.5 | Central Michigan | -18.6 | Covers |
| Notre Dame | North Carolina | Notre Dame | -7.5 | Notre Dame | -21.7 | Covers |
| Penn State | Michigan | Michigan | -4 | Michigan | -19 | Covers |
| Kentucky | Florida | Florida | -12.5 | Florida | -27.7 | Covers |
| Northern Illinois | Western Michigan | Western Michigan | -17.5 | Western Michigan | -35 | Covers |
| San Jose State | Boise State | Boise State | -11.5 | San Jose State | -9.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -9.5 | Wisconsin | -33 | Covers |
According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are a whopping 14 Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:
- Georgia at South Carolina (Georgia -18.5)
- Utah at Arizona State (Utah +6.5)
- Southern Miss at UAB (UAB -17)
- SMU at East Carolina (SMU -10.5)
- Coastal Carolina at Texas State (Coastal Carolina -16)
- UTEP at Rice (Rice -8)
- Florida Atlantic at MTSU (Florida Atlantic -6.5)
As I said above, let’s call those Category 4 games. I’ve been tracking those for three weeks (and posting them for for two), and over that time they are 9-0, which of course means they’ll go 0-7 this week. 🙂
Thanks Joel, I’ve really wanted to create my own SPM for NFL games but haven’t gotten around to it.
Is this an error in the table: LSU favored by 1.5 over A&M? That can’t be can it?
Good eye.
Here’s the explanation:
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/1237822
For the sake of consistency, I use the same source every week: Oddshark’s “opening” lines. If you dig into that LSU -1 opening line, though, you’ll see that it’s a line from March. So, yeah, I should probably change that. 🙂
Oh ok, that makes sense. Very interesting that they opened up the line back in march, although they were probably originally scheduled to play earlier in the season. Should have jumped on the aggies bet then haha
Also, I’ve also been wanting to apply this to both the NFL and men’s college basketball. Unfortunately, the stats packages for those are crazy expensive. The NFL you could probably do with manual data entry, but NCAAM? Hoo-boy, there are a lot of games. 🙂
So . . . only three of those seven were played, and those went 2-1.