Category Archives: Football

Two weeks after facing one of the best defenses we’ve seen since playing both LSU and Alabama in 2011, the Vols get one of the best offenses we’ve seen in the last 15 years. The Crimson Tide are number one in offensive SP+ this year, and their 48.0 rating puts them in elite company among offenses the Vols have faced in the last 15 years.

In SP+, here are the 10 best offenses the Vols have seen since 2005. What have Tennessee defenses been able to do against units like this? Considering what the Vols have been since 2005, the answer is usually not much…but there is one sliver of hope if you want it.

(Full chart at the bottom of the post)

10-9. 2013 & 2012 Alabama

The A.J. McCarron Tide teams had no trouble with Sal Sunseri’s defense in 2012, then dominated in Butch Jones’ first year as well: 44 points in 2012, 45 points in 2013.

8. 2018 Georgia

The Dawgs led 24-0 after the first drive of the third quarter, but Tennessee’s defense forced consecutive stops to get it close again at 24-12. Georgia overwhelmed the defense on the following drive, then used a short field via fumble to get the final seven points in a 38-12 win.

7. 2015 Arkansas

Of the four games the 2015 Vols lost, all by one possession, the most honest defeat came to an 8-5 Arkansas team with three one possession losses of their own. The Hogs weren’t sexy, but they were ruthlessly efficient with Brandon Allen and Alex Collins. They only scored 24 points against us, but piled up 494 yards, turned away twice inside the 10 yard line late with a missed field goal and a fourth down stop.

5a/5b. 2013 Auburn & 2013 Oregon

The participants in the 2010 BCS title game were plenty good three years later. The Ducks Marcus Mariotaed the Vols in week two, going for a ridiculous 59 points and 687 yards. The Tigers made for a more compelling football game later in the season, thanks in part to a pick six just before halftime that pulled the Vols within seven at 27-20. But Tennessee would be outscored 28-3 from that point on.

4. 2019 Alabama

Most of these numbers belong to Tua Tagovailoa, who was of course knocked out of the Tennessee game then lost for the year the next month against Mississippi State. But the 2019 Tide are the only offense on this list to gain less than 400 yards against the Vols, and join 2015 Arkansas as the only ones to score less than 38 points. If you’re looking for hope, this is the best available option this week.

3. 2020 Alabama

Stay tuned.

2. 2007 Florida

Tim Tebow’s Heisman season included a one possession game and the Vols with the ball with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then the Gators scored 31 unanswered points, first via an Arian Foster fumble returned for a score, ultimately winning 59-20 with 554 yards of offense…which was a whole lot worse in 2007 than it sounds today.

1. 2018 Alabama

For those of us wondering if Tua was as good as advertised before our first encounter, the answer was an emphatic yes: 58 points and 545 yards, and Bama hit 51 points with 13 minutes to play in the third quarter. If you’re looking for the worst case scenario Saturday, it’s this.

While the 2020 Tide offense isn’t quite at 2018 Tua levels yet, it’s also helpful that the 2020 Vol defense has come a long way from 2018. The thing that’s been hardest for me to remember this week is Tennessee’s performance against South Carolina and Missouri. For the moment, the Vols still have the second best defense in the SEC in SP+; it sure looked like it in the first half against Kentucky.

Any best case scenarios for the Vols, in general, include some version of, “Let’s see what happens when we quit turning it over,” especially on consecutive drives. It’s too much to ask this Vol defense to stop Alabama, especially when Georgia’s all-world defense just tried and failed. But we’ve already seen enough of a blueprint in this matchup last year. Tua was 11-of-12 before he got hurt, the one incompletion a costly red zone interception. But once he went out, Tennessee’s defense kept the Vols in the game with a third down sack, forcing a missed Alabama field goal, forcing and getting a 3rd-and-10 stop, then getting a 3rd-and-6 stop after a holding call gave Bama 2nd-and-14.

You’re not going to stop these guys often, so if you get them in third-and-long, you’ve got to make it count. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in third down conversions at 61.9%, in part because they’re so good on first and second down. How much can Tennessee’s defense take off from that number?

SP+ likes Bama to score 37 points on Saturday; no joke, Tennessee’s defense could give up 30+ and still feel like they did a pretty good job. They’ll need something from the offense, of course; it’s a good week for the 2018 Auburn gameplan, with Tennessee’s receivers winning one-on-one balls deep down the sideline. I don’t know who’s going to play the most number of snaps at quarterback for Tennessee, but it was Jarrett Guarantano on that day two years ago, so perhaps there’s something in this particular matchup that suits him a little more than what he’s seen the last two weeks.

This is a historically great Alabama offense. Can a relatively good Tennessee defense, at least in our recent history, get off the field enough times to make it interesting?

Here’s the full chart of the best offenses the Vols have seen in the last 15 years in SP+:

Tennessee opened as a 20-point underdog to Alabama this week, and as I’m writing this, the line is currently Tennessee +21. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played four games, so the SPM is using only 2020 data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 23.5
• Alabama’s Scoring Offense this year: 48.5
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.3
• Alabama’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8

Tennessee’s offense against Alabama’s defense

The Alabama scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 24.5
• Kentucky 20

Tennessee scored only 7 points against Kentucky [FLAG — see below], but 31 against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 85% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama 24.4.

Tennessee’s defense against Alabama’s offense

The Alabama scoring offense of 48.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Georgia 33
• South Carolina 30.5

Georgia got 44 and South Carolina got 27 against Tennessee. Combined, that’s 112% of what those teams usually score. So . . . estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee: 54.3

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.4, Alabama 54.3

From the perspective of Alabama

Alabama’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.3 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Texas A&M 29
• Missouri 38

Alabama scored 38 points against Missouri but put 52 on Texas A&M. Together, that’s 134% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee 39.2.

Alabama’s defense against Tennessee’s offense

The Tennessee scoring offense of 23.5 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• Texas A&M 27.5

Missouri got only 19 points against Alabama, and Texas A&M got only 24. Combined, that’s 81% of what those teams usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama: 19

Estimated score: Alabama 39.2, Tennessee 19

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 21.7

SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -25.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

Honestly, that looks about right to me. If there’s something to quibble about, it’s using Kentucky as a scoring defense comp from Tennessee’s perspective, as the Vols getting only 7 points in that game was (hopefully) an anomaly.

If you use all of Tennessee’s 2020 games as defensive comps instead, the offense is scoring 92% of what their opponents usually give up. If you remove the Kentucky game, that number is 106%. So, let’s call it 100%. Against Alabama, you’d expect the Vols to score what Alabama usually gives up, which is 28.8. That would make the score from Tennessee’s perspective Tennessee 28.8, Alabama 54.3, and that would change the final calculation to Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 23.9, a spread of 22.9.

Although that’s not much of a difference, I’ll go ahead and go with it and make my own prediction Alabama 47, Tennessee 24. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Alabama will probably cover the 20- to 21-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas had Alabama as a 20-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 64, that translates to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 22.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama by 18.5 (Tide 37, Vols 19) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning. He’s using a 21-point spread and thus does not like the Tide to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Alabama will cover both the opening 20-point and the current 21-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Alabama 42, Tennessee 22 (Tide -20)
• SP+: Alabama 37, Tennessee 19 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Alabama 47, Tennessee 22 (covers)
• Me: Alabama 47, Tennessee 24 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.

What do y’all think?

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 12-15 (44.44%) overall, 6-5 (54.55%) in Category 2, and 4-1 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 69-73 (48.59%) in Category 1, 31-29 (51.67%) in Category 2, and 15-12 (55.56%) in Category 3.

The GRT SPM and SP+ had identical records this week, as SP+ also went 12-15 against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use. Both systems also had identical records using the spreads that SP+ uses: SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads for the second week in a row, as did the GRT machine. All of that said, SP+ is still way ahead of our machine for the season with a record of 82-60 (57.75%) overall (using our spreads). Using its own spreads, SP+ is 54% for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 8 of the 2020 college football season. For what it’s worth, I am very wary of all of the Big 10 games, as our machine often isn’t especially good at the beginning of a season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 8 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 13 (!) Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Note, though, that there are some Big 10 games of which to be wary.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols host No. 2 Alabama at 3:30 on CBS this Saturday, and there is a full slate of great games on as well, as college football welcomes the Big 10 to the party this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

If you like Thursday night college football, this could be a fun one.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Hello, Big 10 football!

Gameday, October 24, 2020

The noon slot this Saturday features a Top 25 ACC matchup between No. 23 NC State and No. 14 North Carolina on ESPN, a first look at Ohio State on Fox, and future Vols opponent Auburn in action against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team on the SEC Network.

The main feature for Vols fans this week kicks off at 3:30 on CBS when Tennessee hosts No. 2 Alabama. In case you or your DVR care, there’s also a Top 25 Big 12 matchup over on Fox between No. 17 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma State and a couple of former Vols opponents in action on the SEC Network.

The evening slot features No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 21 Minnesota at 7:30 on ABC and also includes former Vols opponent South Carolina taking on LSU at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um, they appear to allow a lot of passing yards, but . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . they pick off a lot of passes.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I would warn against falling prey to the promise of yards through the air, but honestly, what other options are there? It’s going to be even more difficult to run against the Tide. But the entire state of Tennessee is going to come unglued at the first interception. The Tennessee offense is just plain going to have to do a better job of finding something that works and doing that.

Here’s an idea: Pass on traditional running downs and run on traditional passing downs. It’s worth a try.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

These guys suck at 4th down. (Yes, that is sarcastic.) The Vols might be able to hold their own against the run on defense for a bit.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is here, there, and everywhere, and it’s big, fast, ferocious, and wearing the wrong colors.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Stop the run and hope for the best against the passing game. Get some turnovers, and when one comes your way, score.

Special teams

Link to table

Maybe there’s something there for the Vols in the punting and punt return game. If only we could get them to punt.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Alabama’s not much better in the penalty department than Tennessee, so there’s an opportunity for some free, hidden yards there. Take them. And turnovers are villains, but they can be fickle. Let’s hope they switch jerseys this weekend.

In the last 30 years, 13 Vol quarterbacks have attempted at least 250 passes as a multi-game starter. Right in the middle of that list is Jarrett Guarantano, who has now thrown 753 passes in a Tennessee uniform. The six quarterbacks in front of him are record-setters and/or champions of one kind or another: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Dobbs, Bray, Kelly. Not far behind him are Tee Martin and Heath Shuler, who started for only two years. And the rest of the list is filled with guys who won, lost, and in some cases re-won the starting job: Matt Simms, Rick Clausen, Justin Worley, and Jonathan Crompton.

It’s Crompton who feels like the closest comparison to Guarantano a lot of times. Where Guarantano has mixed and matched good and bad in his career, Crompton felt like all of the latter before a stunning transformation to the former. He was at the helm of the Clawfense, which guaranteed his numbers would suffer in comparison. And before that Georgia game, now 11 years old, Crompton’s bad in that offense felt worse than anything I’d seen before.

So there’s a temptation, after losing 34-7 to Kentucky in Knoxville, to throw that “accolade” on Guarantano, especially when it follows the second half at Georgia, and Georgia followed up by surrendering 41 points to Alabama. At 753 pass attempts, we have plenty of data on JG. And it can feel like we keep banging our heads against the same wall.

But over the full course of those 753 pass attempts, Guarantano isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen. In fact, he’s among the top five of those thirteen quarterbacks in the stats that cause the most frustration (data via SportSource Analytics and Sports Reference).

In touchdown-to-interception ratio, Guarantano is fifth among those thirteen QBs, behind Shuler, Manning, Bray, and Casey Clausen. Guarantano has 36 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions, adding three to his total in the last six quarters. “He’s just not accurate,” is a common complaint, especially after struggling so mightily on third down early this season. But in completion percentage, Guarantano (61.2%) is fourth on that list behind Manning, Shuler, and Dobbs.

In yards per attempt, a holier grail than many quarterback statistics, Guarantano is fifth behind Manning, Bray, Shuler, and Martin.

And in interceptions per attempt…Guarantano is first. Not as in worst. As in best: Guarantano has thrown 16 interceptions in 753 attempts, firing one on 2.12% of his passes. Heath Shuler threw 12 in 513 attempts, 2.34%. Peyton Manning threw 33 in 1,381 attempts, 2.39%.

Take his entire career or even his entire season this year, and Guarantano’s numbers are solid. So why do we feel like things are so bad?

I think Guarantano’s problems remind me most of the Arian Foster conversation: “He fumbles all the time!” Which wasn’t true. But his fumbles often came at the worst possible times in critical moments: at the goal line against South Carolina in 2005, a scoop and score in the Outback Bowl against Penn State, another against Florida in a one possession game in 2007, inside the five at UCLA in 2008, one more scoop and score at Auburn a few weeks later. That’s five fumbles in four years, but it was enough to plant the idea in the minds of many.

Guarantano doesn’t turn it over all the time; as interceptions go, he turns it over less than any long-term Tennessee starter in at least the last 30 years.

But when he does turn it over, he has a habit of doing it in bunches and bad moments.

I looked up each of his 16 interceptions. I added the first two from his freshman year for completion’s sake, but I wouldn’t judge him too harshly by what he did in 2017. But starting with the Florida game in 2018 – in something that just felt like unique bad luck at the time – you’ll notice a pattern:

Jarrett Guarantano’s Career Interceptions

1. 2017 Alabama: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols down 38-7)

2. 2017 Vanderbilt: First play of the drive (Vols down 35-17)

3-4. 2018 Florida: Strip sack on the opening drive, intercepted at the Tennessee 12 yard line on the next drive to help Florida take a 14-0 lead. Intercepted on the first play of the drive in the third quarter (Vols down 33-6).

5. 2018 Vanderbilt: Last drive of the first half (Vols down 17-0)

6. 2019 Georgia State: Fumble on pass in the flat on the second play of the game (not his fault?), strip sack at midfield on the drive following Georgia State taking a 28-23 lead, sack and interception on the first two plays of the drive when Georgia State led 35-23.

7. 2019 BYU: Third play of the third quarter at the UT 31 yard line

8-9. 2019 Florida: Intercepted in the end zone (Jennings bobbled), then intercepted at midfield, both with Florida leading only 7-0

10. 2019 UAB: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols led 23-0)

11. 2019 Vanderbilt: Intercepted on the opening drive

12-13. 2019 Indiana: Intercepted on the last drive of the first half, then pick-sixed on UT’s second play of the third quarter

14. 2020 Georgia: Strip sack to open the third quarter, interception at the UT 32 three plays later, scoop and score in the fourth quarter

15-16. 2020 Kentucky: Fumble at the Kentucky 26, pick six on the next drive, pick six on the following drive.

Throw in the goal line scoop and score at Alabama last year, and you’ve got a mess here.

Of Guarantano’s 16 interceptions:

• Three in the end zone
• Seven within the first three plays of the drive, which usually means bad field position
• Three pick sixes, all in the last five games

Six different times, Guarantano has been involved with turnovers on consecutive drives: 2018 Florida, 2019 Georgia State, 2019 Florida, 2019 Indiana, 2020 Georgia, and 2020 Kentucky. When it rains, we drown (or become the only team to come back from down 13 with less than five minutes to play all year).

The stakes were higher for Arian Foster, who was surrounded by more talent. You can chicken/egg that sentence. These turnovers don’t all fall at the feet of Jarrett Guarantano, who has taken a ton of punishment over his career and is still seeing his guys struggle with pass protection in front of him.

Guarantano doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. But he doesn’t throw a lot of harmless ones either. And that has repeatedly put the Vols in bad positions they’re usually not capable of overcoming.

I don’t know that any version of this Tennessee team is capable of overcoming Alabama, though I like their odds better a week before kickoff than I did last year, and they certainly had their chances then. I don’t know for sure what you do after that, or how you feel about Harrison Bailey with no spring practice and little fall camp. At this point in his career, I think it’s best to accept Guarantano for who he is, and what he can and can’t do. He’s actually statistically better at not throwing interceptions than any Tennessee starter of my generation. But when it gets away from him, it really gets away. What does Jeremy Pruitt do at quarterback to keep things from getting away from the Vols this year? We’ll find out more on Saturday.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Took a hit this week: Passes had intercepted fell from No. 5 to No. 45, Red zone offense went from No. 25 to No. 44, and completion percentage fell from No. 27 to No. 36

Currently needs improvement: Deep breath . . . First downs offense, sacks allowed, team passing efficiency, passing offense, rushing offense, passing yards per completion, scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conversion percentage

Improved this week: Rushing offense went from No. 66 to No. 57

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense, total defense

Took a hit this week: Nothing major here, except that first downs defense went from No. 26 to No. 33, red zone defense went from No. 33 to No. 48, and 3rd down conversion percentage defense went from No. 46 to No. 54

Improved this week: Total defense went from No. 31 to No. 24, passing yards allowed went from No. 42 to No. 28

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, net punting, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Net punting went from No. 13 to No. 24

Improved this week: Nothing

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Turnovers lost (No. 13 to No. 51), turnover margin (No. 24 to No. 50), fumbles lost (No. 28 to No. 38), fewest penalties (No. 29 to No. 38), fewest penalty yards (No. 30 to No. 40)

Improved this week: Nothing, unless you want to count fumbles recovered going from No. 14 to No. 9

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers are not yet in the bottom third, but they are trending HARD in that direction.

Turnovers. Anathema to college football. A temporary indiscretion that holds the power to undo untold amounts of hard work. In an instant, they can ruin your play, your day, or even your season.

Tennessee had four of them yesterday against the Kentucky Wildcats, and they all came in such rapid succession that it sucked the wind out of the sails for the rest of the game.

The Vols’ offense punted on its first series after a 32-yard drive and then recovered a Kentucky fumble at the Wildcats’ 45-yard line. Tennessee then drove to the 26, but fumbled when the running back bumped into quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s arm as he was beginning his throwing motion. Kentucky recovered.

No harm done. Yet. The defense forced a punt after Kentucky went only 9 yards, and although the punt flipped the field, the Vols got the ball back.

And then came the harm. With fury and malice.

Guarantano threw a deep out route to the opposite side of the field, and defensive back Kelvin Joseph jumped the route, intercepted the ball, and ran it back 41 yards for a touchdown.

On the Vols’ next series, Guarantano led the team from its own 25-yard line to the Kentucky 28, but then threw another interception, this one to Jamin Davis, who ran it back 85 yards for another touchdown.

Jeremy Pruitt sat Guarantano and gave the reins to J.T. Shrout for the next series. The offense ran one play for 3 yards, had a personal foul penalty on the next, and then Shrout threw an interception. Seven plays later, Kentucky converted that gift into a field goal.

At that point, Kentucky had only 56 total yards, but led 17-0. The drive chart looked like this:

That’s not how drive charts are supposed to look.

Going back to the second half against Georgia last week, Tennessee has had two fumbles, two interceptions, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and 21 instant points given up by the offense in only four quarters of football.

Whatever superlative you want to use to describe that, it fits. You just can’t win that way. It’s how an otherwise evenly-matched game becomes a blowout in the wrong direction.

Tennessee and Kentucky were within seven total yards of each other yesterday. They were within five passing yards and 12 rushing yards of each other. They had an equal number of first downs. And Kentucky won 34-7 because Tennessee had four turnovers.

Just how bad does it hurt?

The Vols didn’t just go on a turnover binge, they took out a credit line and went to 5th Avenue. Football Study Hall estimates that each turnover is generally worth about 5 points on the scoreboard. Sometimes they are worth less, sometimes more, as the continuum runs from a mere lost opportunity all the way to a lost opportunity plus 7 points for the other team on the same play. Interceptions and fumbles recovered and ran back for touchdowns are the most outlandish purchases, and the Vols’ have been going deep into debt the last four quarters.

What in the world has happened?

That, of course, is the Big Question. Countless fingers are currently aimed directly at Guarantano, and he’s certainly a person of interest in the lineup. Many are also pointing at that nearly-perfect-from-a-recruiting-stars-standpoint offensive line.

We should also give proper credit to the opposing defenses. Georgia’s defense is one that could be historically elite by the end of the season.

But what about Kentucky’s? If you’re like me, you probably attributed the Wildcats’ six interceptions against Mississippi State last week to some combination of luck and a sputtering Mike Leach Air Raid. However, Kentucky is currently second in the nation in passes intercepted and tied for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns.

It’s possible that that result has more to do with Kentucky’s opponents than it does with Kentucky — Arkansas is first in interceptions and tied with Kentucky for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns, and both Arkansas and Kentucky have played Mississippi State — but then again, maybe the Wildcats are just ballhawks.

Whatever the case, giving the ball to the other team has to stop. Right now.

Shockingly, we didn’t win the gold

Oddly enough, it wasn’t just Tennessee that had problems with turnovers or pick sixes yesterday. At one point during the day, I heard an SEC announcer say that there had been six pick sixes on the day. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral threw six interceptions against Arkansas, including two pick sixes. (Also odd: He was never replaced despite Ole Miss having a capable second-stringer.)

I don’t know whether there ended up being more than six pick sixes yesterday, but even six is a lot. And Tennessee had two of them. On back-to-back possessions. Sandwiched by a fumble and another interception. On the heels of a flurry of turnovers in the prior game that also included a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Turnovers may be epidemic, but the Vols are sicker than most with the possible exception of Ole Miss.

There were other problems as well

Turnovers played the lead in yesterday’s tragedy, but there were several other villains at work in supporting roles as well. While Kentucky had only one ten-yard penalty, the Vols had six for 63 yards.

Field position was also a problem. Here are the starting positions for Tennessee:

• TN 31
• KY 45
• TN 19
• TN 25
• TN 25
• TN 23
• TN 21
• TN 16
• TN 25
• TN 28

Meanwhile, here are the starting positions for Kentucky:

• KY 25
• KY 20
• KY 27 (after fumble)
• (Pick six)
• (Pick six)
• TN 37 (after interception)
• KY 25
• KY 36
• KY 24
• TN 40
• KY 46
• KY 10

Tennessee’s best starting field position was barely over midfield, and it happened only once. Everything else was basically 75 yards from the end zone.

On the other side, Kentucky had two possessions with a starting field position of zero (because its defense scored), two more on Tennesee’s side of the field, and another almost to midfield. Much of that advantage was a direct result of the turnovers, of course, but the Wildcats also had a significant advantage in the punting game, as Max Duffy had a solid average of 46.7 yards per punt while Paxton Brooks averaged only 37.8 on five punts. That’s basically another 40-50 yard advantage in the punting game.

Progress is not a straight line

If there is a silver lining to yesterday and the second half of the Georgia game, it’s this: As Will reminded us after the Georgia game, progress is not a straight line. I don’t know about you, but I fell prey to believing otherwise. I let myself think that because the Vols took care of business against the second tier of the SEC East last year, we were past that nonsense. I focused only on the next step, which was to start knocking off Georgia, Florida, and Alabama every once in a while.

But we can’t just pass a milestone and cross it off the list. This is a ongoing race, not a checklist, and you can’t just chase after your target without also watching your back.

The upside of progress not being a straight line is that sometimes surprising jumps in progress can follow directly on the heels of regression. We saw that play out in 2019. Let’s see what happens in the remainder of 2020.