Category Archives: Football

Tennessee opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Kentucky this week, and the line has since moved to Tennessee -6. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played three games in 2020, so the machine will only look at current year data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense: 29
• Kentucky’s Scoring Offense: 26
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense: 27.7
• Kentucky’s Scoring Defense: 24.3

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring defense of 24.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25.3
• Georgia 12.3

In case you’re wondering like I was, Missouri’s an even worse comp than Georgia, as the Tigers’ scoring defense is currently 38.

Tennessee scored 21 points against Georgia and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 138% of what those teams usually give up, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky is 33.6.

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring offense of 26 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• South Carolina 30.7

Tennessee allowed Missouri 12 points South Carolina 27 points, which combined is 70% of what those teams usually score. So the estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee is 18.2.

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.6, Kentucky 18.2

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 27.7 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 26.3
• Auburn 22.7

Kentucky scored 13 points against Auburn and 24 points against Mississippi State. Combined, that is 76% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee: 21.

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring offense of 29 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Auburn 21.7
• Mississippi State 20

Kentucky allowed 29 points to Auburn and 2 points to Mississippi State [FLAG!]. That’s 74% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky: 21.5.

Estimated score: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 21.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.5, Kentucky 19.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -7.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1.4

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The only thing that really jumps out at me from the above concerns Mississippi State’s offense as a comp for judging Kentucky’s defense. Leach’s Air Raid exploded onto the scene with 44 points against LSU. It was then immediately grounded with 14 points against Arkansas and 2 points against Kentucky. Also, LSU’s defense appears to be suspect, as it allowed 45 points to Missouri, a team that scored only 12 points against the Vols. Also also, Auburn scored more points against Kentucky than they usually get.

For those reasons, I am highly skeptical of Mississippi State as a reliable comp and thus the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective. If we exclude Mississippi State as a comp, that leaves Ole Miss as the only other possible comp for this year. The Rebels’ scoring offense is 41.7, and they got 42 total points (35 in regulation) against the Wildcats. For regulation, that’s 84% of what they usually get. Combining that with the Auburn comps, those teams got essentially 100% of what they usually get, which would mean Tennessee would score what it usually does: 29. So, the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective would be 29 instead of 21.5. That would make the Kentucky perspective Tennessee 29, Kentucky 21, and the cumulative result Tennessee 31.3, Kentucky 19.6. That would make Tennessee an 11.5-point favorite.

So, my eyeballs are raising their eyebrows at one component of the Statsy Preview Machine’s analysis and going instead with a predicted score of Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree, though, that the Vols should cover the 6- to 6.5-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas has Tennessee as a 6- (current) to 6.5-point (opening) favorite. With an over/under of 46-49, that translates to something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 5.2 (Vols 27, Wildcats 22) and gives the Vols a 62% chance of winning. He’s using a 6-point spread and does not like the Vols to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks the Vols will cover either the opening 6.5-point or the current 6-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21 (Vols -6 to -6.5)
• SP+: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 22 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 20 (covers)
• Me: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.

What do y’all think?

News flash: Spreads matter. We generally measure the GRT Statsy Preview Machine against the Vegas opening spreads, and although the machine has done well in the past, it’s only batting .500 so far this season. Last week was particularly bad: Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 11-16 (40.74%) overall, 3-7 (30%) in Category 2, and 1-3 (25%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 57-58 (49.57%) in Category 1, 25-24 (51.02%) in Category 2, and 11-11 (50%) in Category 3.

No big deal, it’s a weird season after all, right?

But the machine is tearing it up if you measure it against the same spreads that other systems are using. For instance, against the same spreads that SP+ measures against, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall for the second week in a row last week. For the season against those spreads, it’s 70-45 (60.87%). So yeah, spreads matter.

SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads last week. It did slightly better against the same spreads we use (Vegas opening spreads), as it was 12-15 (44.44%). Against Vegas opening spreads for the season, it is still a killer 70-45 (60.87%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 7 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 7 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

College football starts early this week with a game tonight between scrappy Coastal Carolina and No. 21 Louisiana. Old friends Georgia State take on Arkansas State tomorrow night, and Friday features a couple of ranked non-Power 5 teams in action on ESPN.

The Vols host Kentucky at noon on the SEC Network, and then there are five (Vanderbilt-Missouri got postponed) other SEC games to watch on Gameday, including the big one, No. 3 Georgia at No. 2 Alabama at 8:00 on CBS.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Maybe?

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Go Panthers?

Friday, October 16, 2020

Again, maybe?

Gameday, October 17, 2020

The main event for Vols fans is Tennessee taking on Kentucky at high noon on the SEC Network. But set your DVRs for the Auburn-South Carolina game, too, to get a look at how Auburn is doing against a former opponent of the Vols.

The afternoon slate will provide a look at three future Vols’ opponents in Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

The big game — future Vols’ opponent No. 2 Alabama and former Vols’ opponent No. 3 Georgia — gets an 8:00 kick on CBS. The Vanderbilt-Missouri game was postponed.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Kentucky Wildcats.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Sigh. Passing game?

Where’s the danger?

It looks like it’s going to be difficult to run against these guys, and it looks like our third down conversion problems aren’t going to get any better this week. Basically, Kentucky may not be up to Georgia’s level on defense, but Tennessee’s offense is going to have its hands full again this weekend.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Do better. Don’t turn the ball over. Hope the defense can carry the day.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Okay, that’s better. The Vols appear to have a somewhat significant advantage on defense over Kentucky in most areas . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . except in the run game and on third down. Also, Kentucky apparently doesn’t throw interceptions.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

What I said against Georgia holds true in this game: Win first down. Get them off schedule to get an advantage on third down and then win third down. Any turnover in our favor will be really, really valuable.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have the advantage on special teams.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

We’ve seen how much this can change in a week, so it’s hard to say whether either team has an actual advantage here. Just protect the ball and limit the penalties.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. The word of warning continues this week: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, what used to rank 130 or so teams is currently ranking only 75.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes had intercepted, 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed, red zone offense, completion percentage

Took a hit this week: Rushing offense fell all the way from No. 24 to No. 66, sacks allowed fell from No. 31 to No. 60, and passing yards per completion went from No. 26 to No. 48

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage, rushing offense, total offense, sacks allowed, first downs offense, passing offense

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, first downs defense, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Took a hit this week: First downs offense went from No. 10 to No. 26, scoring defense went from No. 17 to No. 37. Total defense and rushing defense also fell this week.

Improved this week: 4th down conversion percentage defense

Currently needs improvement: With only about 75 teams ranked, No. 50 and below would qualify as the basement in this exercise, and even after playing Georgia, the Vols are not there in any given defensive category, which is good.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, net punting, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Kickoff return defense

Improved this week: Net punting and punt return defense

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Turnovers lost, which, after losing three to Georgia tells you how much of an aberration that was so far in this early season. Also, fumbles recovered.

Took a hit this week: Everything in the penalty department. The Vols were all green heading into this game and ended up committing 10 penalties for 84 yards.

Improved this week: Fumbles recovered. Hurray for small sample sizes.

Appears to need improvement: Nothing is terrible here, but the Vols certainly lost their edge in both penalties and turnovers this week against the Bulldogs.

Throughout the off-season and especially with a 10-game SEC schedule, we’ve talked about Tennessee’s final record being a less reliable indicator of progress this year. Instead, how about, “Do we have a chance to win every week?”

Did Tennessee have a chance to win today? Not when it turns the ball over three times in the second half. Not against Georgia.

It might be tempting to cut this game in half, but we need the data from all four quarters. For a time, Tennessee was wearing out the underdog playbook: defensive touchdown, make them kick field goals, a pair of fourth down stops. It felt like the kind of game Georgia might regret.

But then, Georgia wore Tennessee out. Literally: the Dawgs snapped it 77 times, the Vols 63, with a dozen of those on the final drive. The Vol defense, heroic deep into the afternoon, was asked to do far too much too often. And Georgia, despite running a less efficient version of it early, got to play their game: limit turnovers, lean on you offensively, and let that defense do the damage.

All of these things are true at the same time:

• Georgia might have the best defense in the country. They do in SP+, by a significant margin, and that may only grow next week.
• Tennessee’s offensive line got a reality check. I’ll be curious to see where they go from here, but their ceiling was not as high as it needed to be to beat Georgia, plain and simple. Ty Chandler and Eric Gray ran 16 times for 36 yards (2.25 per carry).
• Tennessee’s passing game shares the blame. It includes Jarrett Guarantano, but is not his exclusively. JG was sensational in the first half, then self-destructive on Tennessee’s first two turnovers in the second. On the third, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to do when the backs fail to pick up the blitz like that. Guarantano was part of the problem, but there’s plenty of blame to go around.

How many of those problems will show up when we’re not playing Georgia? Ask Alabama in two weeks.

I said on the radio on Friday that it felt like these Vols skipped a step: all that winning to get back to a game like this, but now you’re playing it at #3 Georgia instead of against, say, #21 Texas A&M or #13 Auburn. Those chances will come. We’ll see if the full picture of this team will still look like progress; that starts with Kentucky next week, and will still include plenty of chances for meaningful wins. If Georgia falls at Alabama next week, the Vols can still hang out in the SEC East conversation, thanks in part to Texas A&M’s win today.

We’ve mentioned this stat a bunch, and it’s painfully worth repeating: since 2001, only the 2015 Vols haven’t lost a three-possession game. Those typically come from being too far behind in talent. That’s true with Georgia; credit Tennessee, particularly its defense, for giving itself a chance for a long time today. But when those chances ran out, Georgia ran by us again.

Progress is not a straight line, though we thought it might look that way for a minute or two today. We’ll see what it looks like next week.

That photo is from three years ago, the last time Tennessee played in a game like this. Georgia came in ranked seventh, the Vols out of the poll after their hail mary loss at Florida. The Dawgs came out on the other side of a 41-0 victory in the top five, and ended the year a breath away from a national championship. Tennessee left that day knowing the program had probably climbed as high as it would climb under Butch Jones, not yet knowing how swiftly or how far it would fall from there.

It was also the day Jarrett Guarantano became Tennessee’s best option at quarterback, taking over for Quinten Dormady in the third quarter with the Vols down 31-0. Tomorrow will be the 35th game Guarantano has played in at Tennessee. He is eighth on Tennessee’s all-time passing list, and will pass Jeff Francis sometime this month if he stays healthy, leaving a string of last-name-only quarterbacks in front of him: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Bray, Dobbs, Kelly.

But Jarrett Guarantano has never played in a game like this. There’s a fullness to the circle that it’s Georgia tomorrow.

To be sure, Guarantano has played elite teams; to be Tennessee’s quarterback is to see them on the schedule every year. And he’s gotten it done as the two-touchdown underdog, his performance at Auburn two years ago maybe his best. That Auburn was not this Georgia. But those Vols were not this Tennessee.

Stetson Bennett has played in a game like this, because he just did it last week. And he gave exactly the kind of performance Georgia wants while riding its elite defense: 17-of-28 (60.7%) for 240 yards (8.6 ypa), one touchdown, no interceptions. Nothing spectacular, everything solid.

This kid is still a mystery, and some percentage of Tennessee’s best chance to win is in revealing it, and discovering Stetson Bennett IV is some percentage of Joe Tereshinski III. Tereshinski was a good story until he went 12-of-20 for 164 yards with two picks against the Vols, the last time Tennessee beat a Top 10 team all of 14 years ago. Good stories have a way of being replaced by great talent in this league; Matthew Stafford had the offense not long after.

There’s some historical harmony for Tennessee on the table tomorrow. The Vols have beaten 11 ranked teams since that 2006 game in Athens, including a handful of almost-Top-10 opponents: #12 Georgia the following year, which went on to finish #2. #11 South Carolina in 2013. #12 Kentucky in Pruitt’s first season. But a win tomorrow would be Tennessee’s first Top 10 victory since #10 Georgia in 2006, its first Top 5 win since #4 LSU the year before, and its highest win over a ranked foe since #3 Georgia the year before that.

Since 1985, Tennessee’s wins against the top five:

• 1985 #1 Auburn
• 1985 #2 Miami
• 1989 #4 Auburn
• 1991 #5 Notre Dame
• 1992 #4 Florida
• 1995 #4 Ohio State
• 1998 #2 Florida
• 1998 #2 Florida State
• 2001 #2 Florida
• 2004 #3 Georgia
• 2005 #4 LSU

That’s eleven Top 5 wins in 35 years, none in the last 15 years. And only six Top 3 wins in 35 years.

This is the first time Tennessee has played in a game like this in three years, which makes us all kinds of eager. Understand how rarified the air of victory would be.

How do we get there? Two years ago the Vols punted on each of their five first half drives, down 17-0 at the break at #2 Georgia. The Dawgs opened the second half with a 10-play, 75-yard drive to make it 24-0. Tennessee, to their credit and Jeremy Pruitt’s delight, had some fight in them: the Vols responded with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in kind, then made Georgia punt twice in a row before responding with another score to make it 24-12 with 11 minutes to play. The Dawgs did their thing: 13 plays, 75 yards, converting three third downs but none longer than 3rd-and-4. Then Tennessee fumbled on its next snap, adding one on in a 38-12 Georgia win.

Last year with Brian Maurer at the helm, the Vols fell behind 7-0 before hitting a big play to Marquez Callaway to tie it, then took the lead on a 10-play drive, ending on the first snap of the second quarter. They held Georgia to three again, then traded punts for three series before the Dawgs scored again to take a 20-14 lead. Brent Cimaglia missed a 47-yard field goal with a minute to play in the second quarter, and Georgia pounced with a quick-strike touchdown to make it 26-14 instead of 20-17.

Tennessee’s defense actually held it at two possessions longer than I remembered: Georgia’s first three second half drives produced a three-and-out, field goal, and turnover on downs. But the offense got no traction, with Maurer throwing a costly first down pick at midfield with four minutes left in the third quarter. Georgia put on another 10-play, 75-yard drive in the fourth, then another late fumble pushed the margin to 43-14.

Tennessee’s defense is built around denying big plays: best in the nation in not giving up 30+ yard plays last year, tied for 10th in that stat so far this year. Georgia’s offense has been good enough to play that game and win it against the Vols.

Their touchdown drives against Jeremy Pruitt’s defense the last two years:

• 8 plays, 86 yards
• 12 plays, 70 yards
• 10 plays, 75 yards
• 13 plays, 75 yards
• 2 plays, 31 yards (late fumble 2018)
• 12 plays, 84 yards
• 6 plays, 60 yards
• 5 plays, 70 yards (final minute of first half 2019)
• 10 plays, 75 yards

When they had to have it in a hurry before halftime last season, they got it. Otherwise they’ve grinded the Vols down with third down efficiency: 8-of-14 in 2018, 5-of-11 last year.

And they don’t turn it over, and don’t take sacks: Darrell Taylor got them three times by himself in 2018, but no one touched Jake Fromm last season. Stetson Bennett was sacked once last week. It’s not much different from what Tennessee wants to get from Jarrett Guarantano, only with a more elite defense behind it.

Can Tennessee’s defense make up that difference? The Vols don’t have the talent advantage to simply beat Georgia playing Georgia’s game. So much hype, and rightfully so on both sides, is on Tennessee’s offensive line vs. Georgia’s defense. But I think the biggest way the Vols can impact this game is with their defense vs Stetson Bennett. Those magic numbers again: for all the flaws of the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 since 2009 when they get at least four sacks, 25-2 with a +2 turnover margin.

Can Tennessee’s defense impact this game the way Auburn’s couldn’t? Can they force Georgia off their schedule and put more of the game on Bennett’s shoulders? Because that’s a trade I’d take with Guarantano, the one experience advantage the Vols have in this fight beyond offensive line: our quarterback has never played in a game like this, but might have more big third down throws under his belt than any quarterback in the nation.

Tennessee is going to need some. Can they make Georgia need some too?