Surprise! These Vols stats look pretty good! And my hair is a mess.

Surprise! Tennessee had 35 first downs, nearly 700 yards of offense, 450+ rushing yards, and 62 points while holding Missouri to 24 in Josh Heupel’s fifth game as the head coach of the Vols. If I knew how to use GIFs or memes or whatever the kids are calling such things these days, this is where I’d insert Chris Farley’s “That was awesome.” Because those three words and a runaway fan-boy/man-crush says more (and more easily) than 800 words of analysis written primarily for the sake of getting a gold star for the proper use of SEO from the Royal Family of Search Engines, Bestowers of Clicks.

Also, Surprise! I am shuffling out of my cave in search of too much coffee due to over-hibernating. I love my new Hatch Restore, and you can set the alarm to go off only on certain days and in certain patterns, but I had no idea that it apparently also has a hibernation mode where it only wakes you up if and when your team scores 62 points. (In case you’re curious about the unfunny reason for my extended absence, a Reader’s Digest version is below the meat of this post.)

Before I fall down the rabbit hole of bear hibernation never to be seen again — did you know black bears can spend five months without eating, drinking, or pooping and never lose any muscle mass or bone strength? — here’s a groggy color-coded look at how the Vols’ national stat rankings right now compare to those at the tragic ending of 2020.

Offense

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

Goodness. Either I’m still dreaming or joy really does come with the morning, even when it comes to hibernating bears and football. The difference on offense between now and the end of 2020 isn’t just mere improvement. It’s a remarkable transformation. So this is me, remarking on it. Mark this as remarked upon. Okay, I’ll stop.

High fives: Not throwing interceptions, first down offense, rushing offense, scoring offense, total offense. All of these are in the Top 21. In the nation. The best of these last year? First down offense, for which we ranked No. 50. Scoring and total offense were in the Facepalm 100s.

Attaboys (improving): Third down conversions and red zone offense are no longer things you’re hoping your pastor doesn’t find out, and TFLs allowed and passing efficiency are also better.

Fix this next: The offense is still allowing an embarrassing amount of sacks. Completion percentage is somehow worse than last year, and the passing offense (yards gained through the air) has not actually improved from 2020 yet. But don’t blame the scheme, blame all the early overthrown balls. Plus, the excellent run game may also be eating some of those opportunities. But still, a bit more balance will likely be needed later on.

Defense

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

Wait, what? This is happening to the defense, too?

High fives: Tennessee’s defense is in the Top 25 in four categories, including the all-important category of rushing defense. TFLs and interceptions are not only in the Top 25, they’re dramatically improved over last year. The defensive line and secondary appear to be helping each other this fall instead of taking turns punching each other in the face.

Attaboys (improving): Passing efficiency defense, third down conversion defense, and passing yards allowed no longer need disguises to go out in public. They’re not getting stopped for autographs just yet, but it’s nice to be able to walk to the mailbox without encountering protesters. First down defense is also improving quite nicely.

Fix this next: Red zone defense. A defensive unit that is having decent success in other areas of the field is not getting it done when the opposition is within spitting distance of the castle. I don’t know whether they’re changing the scheme when opponents cross the moats or whether they should be changing the scheme at that point and aren’t. Somebody wake up the archers and the folks in charge of the giant cauldrons of boiling tar.

Special Teams

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

Odd. SP+ has Tennessee’s special teams ranked No. 18, and it feels to me like they are, in fact, doing quite well. But . . . those numbers are not better than last year. What gives?

High fives: Much of the green on special teams is basically a participation trophy for all of the teams that have merely avoided rare catastrophes when kicking or punting the ball. (There are currently 65 teams tied for first in blocked kicks allowed and 97 tied for first in blocked punts allowed.) So yeah, half-hearted, fly-by high five to you and almost everybody else. Good job showing up.

But actually creating said catastrophes? Those are worth some hearty mutual celebration. Tennessee has blocked both a kick and a punt already this year, so huzzah. Also, punt return defense is Top 25, so keep it up.

Attaboys (improving): Hmm. This chili could use some more cayenne.

Fix this next: Okay, so allowing a 100-yard kickoff return to a team you are otherwise grinding into powder apparently moves you from 48th nationally to 109th. My humble and considered opinion is that we should attempt to avoid doing that in the future.

Turnovers and Penalties

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

Penalties. Um, fix this next. All of it. Only two penalties for 20 yards against Missouri is a good start. And look what happened. More, please.

Turnovers. Much of this is better than last year, but still with a lot of room for improvement. Not fumbling the ball is Job No. 1.


Joel, I know you’re not a bear and that you don’t actually hibernate. So, seriously, where have you been?

Well, first let’s talk about the magazine. Unless I’m mistaken, 2021 is the first year since 2009 that we did not publish a print magazine over the summer. The reasons for this were numerous. Among the more notable reasons were (1) a 2020 pandemic edition that lost a bunch of money; (2) a palpable lack of interest in a 2021 edition due to how the 2020 season ended, the looming NCAA sanctions, the massive amount of talented players high-tailing it out of town, and a transfer portal that was changing daily and would continue to do so until July 1. There was so much roster movement this year that it was incredibly difficult to keep up with, and any magazine that published before the transfer portal closed had to be rife with outdated information. Because of all of that, I initially decided about two thirds of the way through to wait until after July 1 to finish and publish.

And then, in May, two things happened that sealed the deal. I can’t tell you one of them because it involves work and it’s somebody else’s story to tell. The other, though, is my story, and it starts on May 15 when I got up in the middle of the night, passed out, and landed head and face first on granite. Two CT scans confirmed a brain bleed, and my heart was in a-fib for several hours before resolving by itself.

Fortunately, the 24-hour follow-up CT scan showed that the brain bleed had also resolved on its own. So, I stayed in the ICU for two days and a regular room for another while they ran a ton of tests. At the end of that stay, everything basically checked out except that I had positional vertigo and generally felt terrible due to a concussion, and they wanted to monitor my heart for two weeks to see if I was going into a-fib regularly without knowing it.

So, when I went home the first time, I thought I was just waiting out concussion symptoms and wearing a heart monitor as a precaution. To close the loop on the heart thing, there was no a-fib or any other irregular rhythm for those two weeks. The cardiologist said everything actually looked okay, but he wanted me to have an implantable monitor to wear until the battery gives out, which with this new fully-loaded Mercedes model will take 4.5 years. Bottom line on my heart: No problems, although the cardiologist — who, I feel compelled to add, is not a picture of health himself — was, in my opinion, a little over-zealous about my diet. In my mind, the conversation boiled down to this: “Everything is mostly fine. Nothing to worry about. But I want you to change everything anyway.”

Anyway, back to my brain. As I said, I thought I was just waiting for the concussion symptoms to resolve, so I took the rest of the week off and then started back at work half-days. I did that Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Wednesday evening, I started feeling a little weird.

Then, something went badly wrong with my brain on Thursday morning as I was getting ready for work. In a matter of only a few minutes, I was incredibly worried and scared to death about nearly everything. My heart raced, and I was shaking and hyperventilating. And then came a spontaneous onset of terrifying, dark, and uncontrollable thoughts of death and suicide. I’ve had no past experience with any of these things. They just came out of nowhere, and it was terrifying.

Back at the ER, another CT scan came back normal. But because I’d told them everything, they confiscated my phone and transferred me alone without my wife to “Crisis,” which is apparently the politically correct term for a mental ward where a nurse aide is assigned to sit outside your room, watch you through the glass (presumably to make sure you don’t act on those intrusive thoughts but merely wrestle with them for hours before giving you any medicine.) Eventually, a social worker appeared via webcam to question me and talk about whether I should have inpatient or outpatient psychiatric care. We decided outpatient, and my discharge orders were to simply go find a psychiatrist.

Friday, things got worse. We had trouble reaching my primary care physician, but eventually he prescribed an anti-depressant over the phone. My wife picked it up, and when I took it, I immediately felt even worse. The PCP then gave me a prescription of five tablets of Xanax. I took one. It helped, and I slept.

Saturday morning, I was worse still, and my wife sent out emergency texts to several key friends from church who all dropped what they were doing and raced over to our place to sit and talk and pray with us. I still haven’t been able to find the right words to explain what I was feeling during this time. The closest I can get is to say that it kind of felt like a tornado had blown through my mind and uprooted everything I believed. Nothing was different — I could still reason and think and remember — but I’d completely lost any ability to control certain emotions and beliefs. My memory was intact, so I could remember the beliefs that guided my life and that my usual temperament is to be neither afraid nor anxious about things, but now all of those things were spinning in the funnel of the tornado, and I could not grasp them or put them back into place. And worse still, they were now intermingling with these other, unwanted dark thoughts of death that were threatening to overwhelm everything. The unwanted would seize my attention and relentlessly attempt to persuade me that ending it all was the only way out of the torment. I was still unable to anchor myself to the memories of my faith and my hope, but I could still remember and recognize them, and the confounding incongruity of it all was literally driving me crazy.

At its worst, I would sit with my face in my hands and just sob until I was too worn out to weep anymore. My wife and friends would pray for me and tell me it was going to be alright. That it was just an injury to my brain, that it would get better, and that it was just going to take some time. I was capable of appreciating that they were there to help, but I was incapable of believing them. The faith I’d had just a few days before was now flying around in the air out of reach, and without faith, the intercessions on my behalf were just meaningless words going nowhere and doing nothing. I was utterly hopeless.

That was a bad day. It was Memorial Day Weekend, and we were trying to locate a neurologist friend we all knew from the church to get a needed referral to a psychiatrist. We eventually connected, and he got me an appointment with a trusted psychiatrist in the area for Tuesday. Now, all I had to do was make the four Xanax I had left last until Tuesday. Friends stayed with me and tried to help me battle the darkness.

I made it through the weekend with much help from my wife and friends. When we met with the psychiatrist Tuesday, he said he knew exactly what was happening, what was causing it, and that there was medicine for it. I cried yet again right then and there, but this time it was because I was finally grasping a small handful of hope. The condition was Pseudobulbar affect, he said, which made me think it was a placebo diagnosis he made up on the spot just to make me feel better. It’s a real thing, though, basically a malfunction of the part of your brain that controls emotions. It can happen for a few different reasons, including traumatic brain injury. So, he knew what it was and what to do about it. Good news.

The bad news was that the medicine would only work very gradually, over the course of two to four weeks or more. I started my first dose right there in his office.

The next six weeks were extremely difficult. My only goal for most of that time was to get from one minute to the next, to string enough minutes together to make an hour, and then to string enough hours together to make a day. There were many bad days, but over time, they grew fewer and further between.

Where am I at now? Well, I went back to work at the very end of June and have been working since, but I was very careful to make sure I was getting the rest I needed, so really all I did for most of the summer was work and sleep. At some point, I began to have classic symptoms of clinical depression. The psychiatrist said that was normal, and I’m on medicine for that now as well. It’s troubling not being interested in anything, especially the things I used to really look forward to, like pursuing goals for the future. spending time with family, music, and watching, talking, and writing about football. The doctors advise getting out there and doing some of the stuff I used to enjoy even when I don’t feel like it. It was really strange to be almost completely disinterested in the approaching football season this year. Weird, too, that not caring somehow can also make you sad. But the theory is that the desire will likely and eventually follow, and that and the medicine and the prayer is working, if more slowly than I’d like.

So. I don’t know how much I’ll be writing, but I will say that it does feel good to be right here right now. I owe a huge debt of gratitude to many, but here I specifically want to thank Will, not only for holding down the fort while it was spinning for me, but even more for his friendship and support through this time. And to you all as well for still being here.

Expected Win Total Machine – Week 6

And now for the fun part:

There’s a reason we wait til Mondays on these things: not too high, not too low, etc. But I’m very curious to see where our community will land after Saturday’s beat down.

In addition, our next two opponents didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory. South Carolina beat Troy 23-14, their anemic offense again aided by a pick six. And Ole Miss was down 35-0 to Alabama after the opening drive of the third quarter. Again, it’s Bama; I don’t expect our win percentage against the Tide will rise significantly, even after what we did to Missouri. But the Rebels don’t come out of that performance looking like a bigger challenge than they did a week ago.

Even Kentucky, who vanquished Florida in Lexington, did so in a fashion that doesn’t cause additional concern for the Vols (so long as you don’t let them block a field goal and run it back for a touchdown). You’ll note Hendon Hooker in the upper right quadrant from Saturday here:

And Will Levis waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy down there at the bottom. And they still won! Congrats!

But is your number for Kentucky going up or down this week?

It was a very good weekend around here. Curious to see how good and very good the win totals look this week in response.

Go Vols.

More Year One Context: Vols in SP+ Ratings

Don’t look now:

We love SP+ in part for the value it places on every snap, and the way it helps differentiate two teams with the same record. As you might expect, when you announce your presence with such authority as the Vols did against Mizzou, you go up in the ratings.

Same with KenPom, coming into the last few seasons we’ve used Bill Connelly’s preseason projections in an attempt to figure out the right tier for that year’s team. For instance, this year we thought progress for Tennessee would look like something better on the field than we saw in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

That might still, of course, be the case. But through five weeks, Josh Heupel’s first team has moved itself up a tier or two in these conversations.

Here’s Tennessee’s history in SP+ in the last 14 years, including the current rating for 2021:

If the 2021 squad holds its current position, it would be the fifth-best Tennessee team of the last 14 seasons. That would be a really good start for Josh Heupel in year one.

(I assume you know the part that follows by heart – “…especially considering everything we’ve been through,” – but I’m going to keep saying it, because it was and is monumental, and is so far an even greater testament to what these guys are doing through five weeks.)

The 2015 Vols are rightfully atop these ratings in the post-Fulmer era. But the next three teams are in the tier we thought Jeremy Pruitt’s Year Three Vols would land among: the full-season edition of 2016, Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season, and Derek Dooley’s final year in 2012. You felt like each of those teams generally had a chance to win every Saturday.

Right now, the 2021 Vols have positioned themselves just beneath that tier, but above what I thought would already end up representing progress for them: the year two efforts of both Butch Jones (2014) and Jeremy Pruitt (2019). Again, that would be an incredible accomplishment for Josh Heupel in year one…especially considering everything we’ve been through.

It’s five weeks; we’ll see. But in this metric at least, the Vols have moved from “Better than most of the last five years,” to “Faster pace than Dooley’s early rebuild,” to “On pace with Butch and Pruitt in year two,” to “…Okay, I don’t know what to do with this team, but I’m excited about the possibilities.”

It’s five weeks. But…especially considering everything we’ve been through…I will write all the words you want when good news presents itself.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 62 Missouri 24: Announce my presence with authority

Context is king, but it’s hard to find after this one my friends.

But let’s start here: back in August, we looked at the best and worst surprises for the Vols in the post-Fulmer era. We used Vegas as the measuring stick: what were Tennessee’s most noteworthy performances playing above and below the line at kickoff?

The four worst surprises have come in the last four years: losing by 33 to Missouri in 2018 at +5.5, getting shutout 41-0 by Georgia in 2017 (+10), losing to Georgia State as a 24.5-point favorite, bottoming out with last year’s Kentucky debacle at -6.5.

So how much, we wondered, could a good surprise be worth for Josh Heupel?

Turns out, that looks like today:

YearOpponentLineOutcomeDifference
2021at Missouri+2.562-2440.5
2010Ole Miss-2.552-1435.5
2015vs Northwestern-9.545-629.5
2014Utah State-3.538-727.5
2009Georgia+145-1927

It’s a fun comparison, that 2010 Ole Miss game. That was freshman Tyler Bray’s second start, and the first against someone other than 1-11 Memphis. That Ole Miss team ultimately wasn’t much good either, but the Vols were only -2.5 at kickoff with the Rebels 4-5 coming in.

And that’s the biggest difference from today: that game happened on November 13, the Vols scrambling and, on that day, dominating en route to bowl eligibility. This is October 2. We already knew the rhythm of this season would be different than the other year ones we’ve seen recently due to the schedule, and the presence of multiple toss-ups early.

But now we’re feeling some feelings both rare and in a hurry.

Of additional historical note today, via the media guide:

  • 35 first downs ties the school record (UGA 97, Troy 2012, South Carolina 2014).
  • If the Vols had punched it in on the final drive of the first half, they would’ve tied the school record for points in a half (49 vs Louisiana-Monroe in 2000).
  • Tiyon Evans’ 92-yard touchdown run is the third-longest in school history.

On Missouri’s second drive, the Tigers converted 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-9, and 2nd-and-17. They only got three points, but it felt like a missed opportunity to build on an early 7-0 lead. But the Vol offense immediately responded with 75 yards in seven plays. Four plays later was Evans’ 92-yard run. And somewhere in there, Missouri started looking like they wished they were somewhere else.

Tennessee ran 18 plays for 263 yards and 28 points before they faced a single third down. Then they converted that one for a 35-yard touchdown to Velus Jones on 3rd-and-12. And then, and then, and then.

There’s winning, then there’s blowing someone out, and then there’s today.

And it was today: week five, year one.

Who knows where such things are headed; that year one moment for Tyler Bray and Derek Dooley ultimately led to a lot of close losses in year three. There’s no proof available so soon. But I do know it’s better to be Josh Heupel in year one right now than Eli Drinkwitz in year two. Like 40.5 points above the spread better.

I also know the Vols now have a chance next Saturday to put the bowl eligibility conversation aside for an entire month. Beat South Carolina in Knoxville, and you’re at four wins. And you close with South Alabama and Vanderbilt. The path to success in year one is much more clear today. Win next week, and we get to test the ceiling again for a bit.

That’ll come. For now, the word of the day is surprise. And as long as we’ve been trying to put this thing back together, we’ve never seen one quite as pleasant as today.

Go Vols.

Tennessee at Missouri Preview: October Tells The Story

Our community expected win total lands at 5.92 this week. Through four weeks of the season, Tennessee has been incredibly steady as it relates to expectations. The biggest difference we’ve seen in expected win totals was losing a 50/50 game to Pittsburgh:

In our three games vs FBS competition, the Vols have come within six points of the line:

  • -37 vs Bowling Green; won by 32
  • +3.5 vs Pittsburgh; lost by 7
  • +18 at Florida; lost by 24

“Predictable” would not have been your word of choice coming into this season, for a million reasons. But a third of the way through the regular season, the Vols are a lot of who we thought they’d be. And that’s a good thing, considering we tend to think a little more highly of our teams as Week 1 approaches.

Josh Heupel’s first team continues to follow a path that was largely unavailable to his predecessors. Jeremy Pruitt’s year one Vols in 2018 caught a ranked West Virginia squad in the opener, then Florida, Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama in a row. November would be the month they had their chances, we thought.

Butch Jones’ 2013 squad faced what still might be the toughest schedule in school history, playing seven Top 20 (and six Top 11) teams from September 14-November 9. Other than Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, and South Alabama, the Vols were underdogs every Saturday until they played Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish.

Derek Dooley’s Vols had the same problem, never facing a one-possession line until November. That 2010 group knew it might face a 2-6 start with a chance to finish 6-6, and that’s exactly what they did.

Pruitt and Jones were able to score the big upset, and Dooley almost did at LSU. Pruitt’s Vols beat Auburn on October 13, Jones’ Vols beat South Carolina on October 19, and Dooley’s Vols had LSU the first time the game ended on October 2. It’s been the month for year one magic, real and almost.

Josh Heupel’s season has already faced a different set of challenges with a true toss-up in Week 2, where the Vols left feeling okay about themselves with a seven-point loss despite three turnovers and 13 penalties. But instead of running the SEC gauntlet early and getting those wins back late, Heupel’s Vols now enter their most crucial stretch of the season. Another 50/50 game, this time at Missouri. A chance to be a home favorite in the SEC, non-Vanderbilt division, against South Carolina. And the most realistic big upset opportunity left on the table against Ole Miss.

The Vols have two wins in the bag, and we assume two more at the end of the season from South Alabama and Vanderbilt. Good news about those two being there: you literally can’t look past them. In between, the Vols need two more wins to secure bowl eligibility. The best and most important chance to get one should be next week against South Carolina, a program also starting over. That would leave either at Missouri, or at Kentucky left: split those and beat the Gamecocks, and you’re home. So while it’s not a necessary win, tomorrow is a tremendous opportunity to get ahead of the curve.

In this regard too, optimism has increased since the season opener. In the week leading up to Bowling Green, our readers gave the Vols a 44.2% chance to win at Missouri. This week, despite Tennessee’s loss at Florida and uncertainty surrounding the health of Hendon Hooker, our readers give the Vols a 52% chance to get it done in CoMo. The Tigers only beat Central Michigan by 10, then lost a pair of high-scoring games by a touchdown to Kentucky and at Boston College. There’s still plenty of time for a year two ascent under Eli Drinkwitz, it just hasn’t happened yet.

We’ll spend plenty of time talking about Lane Kiffin in a couple of weeks, but so far Josh Heupel’s year one path again most closely resembles his. A should’ve-been-different loss to a mid-tier non-conference foe. A that-wasn’t-as-bad-as-we-thought loss at Florida. And now, another opportunity in a toss-up game.

Kiffin’s Vols needed one more Saturday to bear fruit: on October 3, they lost to Auburn 26-22 in Neyland Stadium. We may be in for another Saturday with thin margins tomorrow. But so far, these Vols have been about what we thought, with plenty of opportunity left to become what we hoped.

Go Vols.

Defense: Bend ‘Til They Break, etc.

The thing Tennessee was worst at last season was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, 125th of 127 teams that played. After Emory Jones went 21-of-27, we’re not seeing grand improvement in this category: opposing quarterbacks have now hit 64% of their passes against the Vols this season, 103rd nationally.

But here again, one difference is glaring: last season those quarterbacks hit 68% of their passes at a whopping 8.5 yards per attempt, 110th nationally. So far this season, QBs are hitting 64% of their passes, but for only 6.1 yards per attempt, 26th nationally.

In short: the Vols are doing a good job keeping everything in front of them.

There are lots of stats that will be affected by Tennessee’s pace of play, which increases the total number of snaps for both teams. One, perhaps, is this: opponents have completed 38 passes of 10+ yards against the Vol defense, 98th nationally (all data from SportSource Analytics). But through four games, opponents have landed only one 40+ yard pass play, putting UT in a tie for 18th nationally.

Shout out to this preview from Nate Edwards at Rock M Nation for a stat I hadn’t seen: the Vol defense is fifth nationally in forcing three-and-outs. Tennessee is really good at getting off the field early. But when they don’t, it’s a lot of bending and, so far, very little breaking. One key place for improvement: the end of drives. Opponents have scored on all 13 red zone trips (that’s 100%, kids), with 9 touchdowns in 13 appearances (69.23%, 93rd nationally).

There is an imbalance throughout. The Vols are particularly good at snuffing out the run and blowing up screens: 8.5 tackles per loss per game is good for seventh nationally (aided, again, by pace of play). But the Vols have just nine sacks in four games, four of them against Tennessee Tech.

And, of course: the defense has created a single turnover all year that didn’t come against TTU. One turnover in FBS competition is good for 120th nationally.

Tim Banks and company have done a great job forcing three-and-outs, and a great job keeping teams away from the big play when a drive does advance. The Vols, of course, will need to create something more on the back end of drives, whether through red zone stops or forcing more turnovers. If bend-but-don’t-break is the plan, the defense is absolutely living up to it. I’ll be curious to see just how far it can take them.

Expected Win Total Machine – Week 5

So, this is a much less reliable week because we’re unsure of the situation at quarterback, at least until Josh Heupel speaks today at noon. And, if it’s like last week, we’re not likely to know who’s going to start against Missouri until kickoff.

If it’s not Hendon Hooker, that should only be due to injury. But head injuries don’t all behave alike, and Tennessee obviously should take all the necessary precautions with him.

You can let us know in the comments how you filled out your total this week as it relates to who would be playing quarterback.

Elsewhere this week:

  • You always get a mixed bag when future opponents face each other, so what are we taking away from Kentucky’s 16-10 win over South Carolina? The Cats are 4-0, but get the Gators this week. South Carolina has an opportunity to right themselves against Troy before coming to Knoxville next Saturday.
  • Right now, the Vols have four past or future opponents in the Top 12 of the AP Poll. We’ll learn a lot more about Alabama, Georgia, and especially Ole Miss this week.
  • The game that had the biggest potential to move the needle last week did: Missouri lost at Boston College in overtime. Last week, fans gave the Vols a 45.9% chance of winning in Columbia. Does that drift closer to 50% after their loss on Saturday?

Are we in it?

In the weeks leading up to the season the last two years, we’ve put Tennessee’s outlook into tiers based on SP+ projections. Leading up to 2020, for instance, the most common comparisons were Tennessee teams you felt like had a realistic chance to have a shot every game. For this year, there was the hope of progress, and the idea that the Vols might not get blown out so often.

Tennessee’s final margin last night was 24 points, twice as many as what we saw in this match-up last year. But no one would argue which game was more competitive: last year Florida built a three-possession lead five plays and 75 yards into the third quarter, and the Vols didn’t score again until there were only five minutes left in the game, then down 31-7. So yes, the outcome was two possessions, but the experience was mostly non-competitive.

Last night, not only did the Vols build a 14-10 lead in the second quarter (and follow it up with a stop). But Tennessee had 4th-and-5 at the Florida 30 with six minutes to play in the third quarter, down 24-14. The drop by Jimmy Calloway was indeed crushing, turning what could’ve been a 24-21 game into a change in possession.

Tennessee also got Florida in 1st-and-20 a minute later, but couldn’t hold as the Gators converted 3rd-and-3, then 3rd-and-1 for a touchdown. The game went to three possessions with two minutes to play in the third quarter; Florida tacked on one more in the fourth.

But by this metric, Tennessee was in the game – ahead, tied, or behind by 1-2 possessions – for 43 of the game’s 60 minutes, or 72% of the outcome. And in this manner, the Vols showed immediate improvement.

In the last three years against the Gators:

  • 2018: A safety and a 65-yard touchdown pass on the very next snap turned a 14-3 game into a 23-3 hole with 11 minutes to play in the second quarter. The Vols were in this game for 19 minutes.
  • 2019: Florida scored on 4th-and-goal at the 1 on the final play of the second quarter for a 17-0 lead. Brian Maurer got the Vols downfield for three to open the third, but Florida answered with 75 yards in six plays to push it back to three possessions, and the Vols didn’t score again. Tennessee was technically in this game for 32 minutes, but failed to score a touchdown in 60.
  • 2020: The Florida score to open the third quarter means the Vols were likewise in this game for 32 minutes.

Comparisons to Georgia and Alabama are increasingly unfair, but in the last administration, consider how quickly they built three-possession leads:

  • 2018 Georgia: Dawgs up 17-0 on the last drive of the second quarter. Tennessee scored twice to get it back within 24-12 with 11 minutes to play, but Georgia ground us to death with a 13-play drive requiring nothing more than 3rd-and-4 to make it three scores again. Vols were in this game for 38 minutes.
  • 2018 Alabama: Tua Tagovailoa hit Jaylen Waddle for 77 yards on the first play of Alabama’s third drive for the Tide’s third touchdown. Tennessee was in this game for all of seven minutes.
  • 2019 Georgia: The one most similar to last night: Brian Maurer hit a big play and made a great throw to give the Vols a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter. Tennessee didn’t score again, but did have 1st-and-10 at midfield down 29-14 before throwing an interception, then stopped Georgia on fourth down but went three-and-out. The Dawgs made it three possessions with 8:02 to play in the fourth, putting Tennessee in this one for 52 minutes.
  • 2019 Alabama: You know this one. Down 21-10 at the half, the Vols cut it to 21-13 in the third quarter. Bama responded with six, then the teams traded three-and-outs. The Vols had 4th-and-goal at the 1 with 7:21 to play when Jarrett Guarantano fumbled and Alabama ran it back for a touchdown. So the Vols were in this one for 52 minutes too.
  • 2020 Georgia: Vols led 21-17 at halftime, then all Georgia. The Dawgs made it 16 points with 10:30 to go in the fourth, then scoop-and-scored to make it three possessions thirty seconds later. The Vols were in it for 50 minutes, but obviously it only felt like 30.
  • 2020 Alabama: A second quarter score made it 21-3, but the Vols did answer with six. Bama was right back to work in five plays and 75 yards. The Vols were in this one for 24 minutes.

By this metric, Josh Heupel’s debut in a rivalry game was Tennessee’s best performance against the Gators in four years. And I’d put it on the list with the Brian Maurer Georgia game, the 2019 Alabama game until JG’s fumble, and the first half in Athens last year as one of Tennessee’s better performances in any rivalry game of the last three years.

This is, of course, no ultimate prize. But the Vols looked more coherent, longer, with fewer familiar faces. The game plan made sense on both sides of the ball. And so too, for now, did the outcome.

Tennessee moves to its most important stretch now, and will do so with continued uncertainty about the health of its quarterbacks. The Vols are +3 at Missouri, a virtual toss-up on a neutral field. The success of 2021 will rise and fall quite a bit between now and the next time we see one of our biggest rivals.

But for the long-term success of the program…last night was a decent step in the right direction, especially considering how many coaches have tried to take that first step over the last dozen years. There’s a lot left to learn. But not only could it have been a lot worse, it has been before. And there were signs that, perhaps, it might get better.

Go Vols.

How much weight can the defense carry?

Our community expected win total creeps back over six this week. Using our GRT Expected Win Total Machine, we’ve got Tennessee’s projected regular season win total at 6.06 this week. That’s up from 5.94 last week, which followed 6.74 in preseason and 6.60 after Bowling Green.

Even if the Vols fall on Saturday, we may see next week’s total stay north of 5.5 wins. Tennessee’s path to bowl eligibility won’t be threatened tomorrow night; only the fast-forward button is at stake.

This week our community gives the Vols a 19.9% chance against the Gators, down from 22.7% last weekend before they almost got the Tide. That’s down a hair from the 23% chance SP+ gives the Vols, which is, incidentally, Tennessee’s winning percentage since this rivalry’s been played annually the last 31 years.

SP+ provided one of the best data points coming out of the Tennessee Tech game: the Vols now boast a Top 10 special teams unit, and a Top 25 defense (19.6 defensive SP+ rating, good for 21st nationally). Tennessee’s defense made a lengthy climb in this department two years ago, going from the Georgia State debacle to a 7-1 finish. Take out the loss to Alabama in that latter stretch, and no team scored more than 22 points in those seven Tennessee wins. The 2019 defense finished the year 19th in SP+, the program’s highest rating since the 2015 group finished 13th.

That group was led by seniors at every level, from Darrell Taylor to Daniel Bituli to Nigel Warrior. This Tennessee defense has been led largely by a cast of characters we don’t really know well. Through three games Theo Jackson leads the team with a ridiculous 8.33 tackles per game; if he kept that pace all year it would be the best season at Tennessee since A.J. Johnson in 2013. Jackson joins lots of other names in the secondary we’ve heard before, but never with such enthusiasm. There are intriguing possibilities, old and new, on the defensive line.

And even in the middle of the field – where the Vols struggled more than anywhere else last year in a season defined by struggle – there are signs of hope.

The Vols allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes last season, 125th of 127 teams who played in 2020. It hasn’t been a total turnaround so far: the Vols are 74th in that stat after holding Tennessee Tech to 47.2%. But in the one live fire test we’ve seen, there were a couple of key differences.

Kenny Pickett went 24-of-36 (66.7%) against the Vols, joining four quarterbacks from last season who completed at least two-thirds of their passes against UT on at least 20 attempts. But you’ll note the improvement:

QBYearCMPATTPCTYDSYPA
Kenny Pickett2021243666.7%2857.9
Mac Jones2020253180.6%38712.5
Felipe Franks2020182475.0%2159
Kyle Trask2020354971.4%4338.8
Kellen Mond2020263281.3%2818.8

It may not have been great against Pickett, but it was a step in the right direction by comparison, in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The Vols were very bad at this last year. I don’t know how many games just being…maybe below average at it now will win.

But if you’re looking for real progress: last year the Vols were 114th nationally in third down conversions allowed, giving up 47.62% on the year. So far this year, Tennessee is 12th nationally, giving up 27.45%.

Again, Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech, sure. But if you want the better comparison: Pitt went 8-of-20 (40%) on third down. That’s exactly the number the Vol defense hit against South Carolina and Missouri in the first two weeks of last season, both going 6-of-15. After that:

  • Georgia: 8-of-16, 50%
  • Kentucky: 6-of-12, 50%
  • Alabama: 7-of-12, 58.3%
  • Arkansas: 9-of-17, 52.9%
  • Auburn: 9-of-15, 60%
  • Florida: 6-of-13, 46.2%
  • Vanderbilt: 3-of-18, 16.7%
  • Texas A&M: 10-of-14, 71.4%

Yeah, that’s gross.

So yeah, things are better. “They’ll need to be against Florida,” sounds like the next sentence, and probably so. But the Gators went just 4-of-12 in this department against Alabama. Tennessee’s defense was masterful in getting out of bad situations against Pittsburgh, giving the offense every opportunity to win.

Can they do the same tomorrow night?

The mostly likely outcome here is we take what we learn from Saturday night, and see if it can translate into victory in a very important stretch of at Missouri and vs South Carolina.

But if you’re looking for magic – and not the kind that appears out of thin air, like the Vols suddenly connecting on a high percentage of deep balls – it may in fact come from the defense, and their significant improvement in getting off the field when it matters most.

Go Vols.

Opportunity is something something

Two years ago this week, the Vols headed to Gainesville after losing to Georgia State and BYU. In the middle of that week, it looked like the line in Vegas might become the second-worst of the then 30 years Tennessee and Florida had met consecutively. It settled at +12.5 by kickoff; the Vols lost by 31.

We are trending, shall we say, in the wrong direction:

In now 32 years of playing this rivalry annually, the Vols have been favored seven times, and we’ve won seven times. Vegas doesn’t miss much. When they do, it can be comical: you’ll note the 30-point spread in the, “Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin,” game. Or what was the second-highest line the Vols faced in this rivalry, until last year: 2001, when the Vols went to The Swamp and won anyway.

That +16.5 at kickoff remains the biggest upset in the last 35+ years for Tennessee, a stat we pulled when Jeremy Pruitt’s year one team did the deed at Auburn:

2001 Florida has always been a stupid line all around: we don’t think of that win as the program’s biggest upset, because the Vols were good enough to be in the national championship conversation themselves. The rest of that list looks more like it, with Pruitt’s inclusion proof that it is always possible…and it may not necessarily mean everything.

What we do know is the Vols broke that +16.5 number last year at +18.5, and are headed that way as I write this on Wednesday afternoon this season, currently +19.5. If it stays there, the Vols will face their toughest odds against Florida at any point other than a throwaway line from 2009, and victory would require the program’s biggest upset in Vegas of the last 35 years.

We’re spending less energy worried about Bama these days, which is good. But Florida – vanquished five years ago, should’ve been vanquished four years in a row then, and just 3.5 points away three short (long?) years ago – remains a relevant conversation. “Always within reach, seldom grasped,” is how this usually goes.

But now, even the reach is getting longer. And so perhaps it’s a good moment to frame a couple of conversations.

For Tennessee’s present, six wins will not be lost on Saturday night. On that front, the Gators represent only opportunity. Lose to Florida by 1 or 10 or 30 again, and Tennessee can still find their way to bowl eligibility. In this way, this Tennessee season feels a bit like what I assume it used to be in the Bluegrass: if you can get Florida, Georgia, or Tennessee (Alabama for us), fantastic. But you can still get to six wins without any of them.

Tennessee’s season, so far, has gone about the way you’d think: 32 points on Bowling Green, 56 on Tennessee Tech, and losing to Pitt when -3 in turnovers with a baker’s dozen penalties. In SP+, the Vols are actually up from their preseason projections, with a Top 25 defense and Top 10 special teams.

But it’s in this – the way we think – that opportunity remains stubbornly available to idiots and optimists alike.

The two highest lines the Vols have faced against Florida both took place in December. Where we know this game is here, in September, the SEC opener. It is, most often, the first thing you can talk yourself into. And, most recently, it’s felt like the last thing you could talk yourself into.

If the Vols are not who we think – in a good way – Saturday night is the best opportunity for it to present itself. To be surprised. To be delighted.

I don’t know how to not come to this game with hope, foolish or not. The only way not to, as we learned last year, is to move it to December. And I don’t know how long it will take to move that Vegas line back towards something more reasonable in this series. Or, with Texas and Oklahoma coming, I suddenly don’t know how much longer we’ll be doing this with them every year any way. And unlike the Alabama series, we haven’t been beaten badly enough, recently enough, to make me something other than sad about that for now.

The past has clearly trended in the wrong direction for Tennessee in this rivalry. The present can’t be overly harmed by Saturday night. It’s only the future – the tantalizing, probably improbable fast-forward button on all this business – that’s really up for grabs. And maybe that’s always how it was when Kentucky played these guys under Rich Brooks: we can move the program forward without this one, but hey, we’ll shoot our shot and see if we can’t move it forward faster anyway.

It’s opportunity, somewhere between nowhere and now here. It may not last long Saturday night, and we may get right back to the business of finding six wins.

But it’s still the Wednesday of Florida week. For three decades now, and who knows how much longer, it’s the week to get your hopes up, because those hopes have paid off juuuuuuuuuuuuust enough to do it one more time.

And it’s only Wednesday.

Go Vols.