Expected Win Total Machine – Week 5

So, this is a much less reliable week because we’re unsure of the situation at quarterback, at least until Josh Heupel speaks today at noon. And, if it’s like last week, we’re not likely to know who’s going to start against Missouri until kickoff.

If it’s not Hendon Hooker, that should only be due to injury. But head injuries don’t all behave alike, and Tennessee obviously should take all the necessary precautions with him.

You can let us know in the comments how you filled out your total this week as it relates to who would be playing quarterback.

Elsewhere this week:

  • You always get a mixed bag when future opponents face each other, so what are we taking away from Kentucky’s 16-10 win over South Carolina? The Cats are 4-0, but get the Gators this week. South Carolina has an opportunity to right themselves against Troy before coming to Knoxville next Saturday.
  • Right now, the Vols have four past or future opponents in the Top 12 of the AP Poll. We’ll learn a lot more about Alabama, Georgia, and especially Ole Miss this week.
  • The game that had the biggest potential to move the needle last week did: Missouri lost at Boston College in overtime. Last week, fans gave the Vols a 45.9% chance of winning in Columbia. Does that drift closer to 50% after their loss on Saturday?
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Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
2 years ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

Will, you really think we have a 15% chance of beating UGA? I don’t think that we could beat them once out of 10 games. Why do you feel so much more confident against them than against Bama?

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
2 years ago

Your expected win total is 6.1.

Your details:

at Missouri: 50%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 99%

It all depends if Hooker plays! Biggest movers are Missouri and UK. Mizzou has a run defense that I think we can and will run all over. UK laid two clunker wins in a row. We’ll see what they’re made of soon in their next three games.

HT
HT
2 years ago

Your expected win total is 5.5.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 45%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 15%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 1%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

HT
HT
2 years ago
Reply to  HT

Still apparently the low man of the commenters. And this is up from 5.4 last week!

Pre-season: 5.0

After BGSU: 5.9

After Pitt: 5.2

After Tech: 5.4

John Wilbanks
John Wilbanks
2 years ago

6.2! The orange kool-aid is delicious

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
2 years ago

Down a bit to 6.3 this week, and assuming Hooker is healthy.

at Missouri: 50%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 30%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 35%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
2 years ago

Your expected win total is 5.6. Your details: at Bowling Green: 100% vs Pittsburgh: % vs Tennessee Tech: 100% at Florida: % at Missouri: 55% vs South Carolina: 55% vs Mississippi: 20% at Alabama: 1% at Kentucky: 40% vs Georgia: 3% vs South Alabama: 95% vs Vanderbilt: 90% Our lack of depth really got exposed this week. I don’t think that bodes well for our games against Ole Miss, Bama, Georgia, or UK. But, we did look better in the first half against the Gators than I thought we would. These next two games look to be the swing games for… Read more »

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
2 years ago

Your expected win total is 6.1.
Your details:
at Missouri: 53%
vs South Carolina: 67%
vs Mississippi: 36%
at Alabama: 2%
at Kentucky: 50%
vs Georgia: 2%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
2 years ago

Your expected win total is 5.6.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 40%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 20%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Harley
Harley
2 years ago

About the same as last week… not seeing enough improvement to get too excited. Great 1st Half against Florida, but still a lot of MISTAKES. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 6.1.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 60%

vs South Carolina: 70%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%