Expected Win Total Machine – Week 4

Here’s where we’ve stood heading into the first three Saturdays of the year in expected win totals:

• Week 1: 6.74 wins
• Week 2: 6.60
• Week 3: 5.94

The Vols had no problem with Tennessee Tech, but are still more of a mystery than we were counting on after three weeks. Tennessee now has a Top 25 defense and a Top 10 special teams unit in SP+. But the offense continues to face question marks at just about every position group that isn’t…tight end, which was probably the least certain coming into the year. Jacob Warren leads the Vols in receptions with nine, and Princeton Fant is tied for second with six.

Last week, our community gave the Vols a 22.7% chance to beat Florida. Let’s see how you’re feeling about that, and everything else, this week:

You can’t go back, of course, but Pittsburgh’s 44-41 loss to Western Michigan certainly didn’t give us the warm fuzzies. Looking forward:

• Worse, but we’ll talk ourselves into it anyway: Florida was impressive and had very real chances to take down Alabama. The Gators can easily tell themselves they still control their own destiny: get to Atlanta, get revenge, make the playoff. Or, you know, they could still be let down and come out slow against us on Saturday night.
• Better by way of the above: I don’t know that anyone is giving Tennessee a significant chance to beat Alabama, but your number probably isn’t going down this week.
• Better by way of Chattanooga: Kentucky made Tennessee’s win over a Volunteer State FCS foe look even better, as the Mocs took away their running attack and had their chances to score a monumental upset.
• About the same: Lots here this week: Georgia did what you thought they would to South Carolina, Missouri handled their FCS business, Vanderbilt lost 41-23 to Stanford, and Ole Miss beat Tulane past my bedtime.