Expected Win Total Machine – Week 6

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And now for the fun part:

There’s a reason we wait til Mondays on these things: not too high, not too low, etc. But I’m very curious to see where our community will land after Saturday’s beat down.

In addition, our next two opponents didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory. South Carolina beat Troy 23-14, their anemic offense again aided by a pick six. And Ole Miss was down 35-0 to Alabama after the opening drive of the third quarter. Again, it’s Bama; I don’t expect our win percentage against the Tide will rise significantly, even after what we did to Missouri. But the Rebels don’t come out of that performance looking like a bigger challenge than they did a week ago.

Even Kentucky, who vanquished Florida in Lexington, did so in a fashion that doesn’t cause additional concern for the Vols (so long as you don’t let them block a field goal and run it back for a touchdown). You’ll note Hendon Hooker in the upper right quadrant from Saturday here:

And Will Levis waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy down there at the bottom. And they still won! Congrats!

But is your number for Kentucky going up or down this week?

It was a very good weekend around here. Curious to see how good and very good the win totals look this week in response.

Go Vols.

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Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
20 days ago

6.7 for me as well. Looks like two automatic losses and two should be automatic wins. I’ve been going back and forth if I want Ole Miss to win or lose their Arkansas game. I don’t have much faith in UK’s record. They weren’t impressive to me all year and that UF game was bizarre. LSU is not that good and UGA is a machine. So we could be looking at a 7-1 UK when we play and I don’t think I’ll feel any worse. If UK loses the LSU and/or State matchups I’ll just feel better. vs South Carolina:… Read more »

SpeedyWillie
SpeedyWillie
20 days ago

6.7 as well. I don’t think SC has the offense to keep up with us. Not sure what to make of Kentucky. They beat us pretty comprehensively last year and obviously just beat Florida, but their struggles vs. Chattanooga and SC give some hope. Ole Miss could turn into a track meet and come down to whoever has the ball last – but we’ll know more after next week.

vs South Carolina: 65%

vs Mississippi: 45%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 15%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
20 days ago

I’m at 6.1…I just don’t have great vibes about UK, though I probably overreacted to their win over Florida and should also have given us a bump for having a bye week before.

I am fascinated to see how the team responds this week. Saturday was unexpected, and now they’re a double digit favorite at home. We talk all the time about handling adversity, but I think handling success is an equally important marker for a coach/team.

vs South Carolina: 67%

vs Mississippi: 33%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 25%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

HT
HT
20 days ago
Reply to  Gavin Driskill

Same score for me this week.

Your expected win total is 6.1.

vs South Carolina: 65%

vs Mississippi: 15%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 1%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

HT
HT
19 days ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

I definitely feel better about US after Saturday, but I also feel like Georgia and Alabama are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the country right now and despite our history of playing the Dogs closer than we have any business playing them, I don’t have much hope of winning that game. Obviously.

Drew
Drew
19 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.1. Your details: at Bowling Green: 100% vs Pittsburgh: % vs Tennessee Tech: 100% at Florida: % at Missouri: 100% vs South Carolina: 65% vs Mississippi: 25% at Alabama: 10% at Kentucky: 30% vs Georgia: 4% vs South Alabama: 96% vs Vanderbilt: 80% I watched a good bit of that Kentucky game and what I got from it was that Kentucky’s Defense is TERRIFYING. I had kept the Kentucky game as a toss up until now under the assumption that their record was kind of fluky, but after seeing them beat Florida (and hold up against… Read more »

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
19 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.5.

Your details:

vs South Carolina: 70%

vs Mississippi: 25%

at Alabama: 4%

at Kentucky: 60%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 94%

That rounds up to 7 wins for the first time!!!

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Harley
Harley
19 days ago

At 6.8 this week, up from 6.1. Getting closer to a “maybe 7 win” season. Keep on the current improvement ramp and it can happen again. It starting to be FUN watching this TEAM. GO VOLS! (and welcome back Joel)

Your expected win total is 6.8.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 75%

vs Mississippi: 50%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
18 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.6.
Your details:
vs South Carolina: 72%
vs Mississippi: 34%
at Alabama: 0%
at Kentucky: 53%
vs Georgia: 0%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%

memphispete
memphispete
18 days ago

6.2 wins. Jumped a full game largely because I had us stealing just 1 of the Missouri, Sakerlina, Kentucky trifecta in my preseason looks and now South Carolina looks like a very high percentage win. Bama is at 1% and Georgia at 2%, reflecting their national poll ranks. Conversely, Bama (South) and Vandy are locks. I don’t remember what I put in for Olde Mississippi and Kentucky but conceptually Ole Miss is a long shot – its percentage still can’t drink, vote or drive. And Kentucky is like the woman who never ages (<29). We win either of those games… Read more »

Joel Hollingsworth
Joel Hollingsworth
17 days ago
Reply to  memphispete

lol. I’ve missed you, Pete!

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
17 days ago

I’ve jumped from 6.3 to 6.9 this week, but I’m wary of the Missouri factor.

Your expected win total is 6.9.

vs South Carolina: 70%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 20%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 30%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%