Category Archives: Football

Two years and at least two lifetimes ago, Tennessee almost went back to the Music City Bowl. The last minute switch to the Gator Bowl was a welcome one, carrying January prestige and tradition.

I don’t know if there’s a clear answer to the idea of that switch this year; leave the opponents the same and you do get a shot at a ranked foe from Wake Forest. I do know it’s good for our mental health to look forward, not back, so I’m glad to not be writing on how to stop the Clawfense, now that it’s had enough time.

But with college football in flux, I also think so many of these traditions are what we make of them. The New Year’s Six stretches back to December 30, the same day the Vols and Boilermakers will meet in Nashville. Even the Gator Bowl is on the 31st this season. And the league office seemed true to its word, at least this season: rewarding Top 25 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M with the slots typically thought of as more prestigious is a decision I fully respect. It makes the most sense for this Tennessee team to be in Nashville at the end of this season.

There are all these words that go in this next blank about how we weren’t sure we’d be anywhere at the start of this season, and weren’t sure how long it’d be until we were anywhere or who we’d be there with around 11 months ago. The work Josh Heupel and these guys have done in one year gets one more data point, a 13th game with a chance to get an eighth win. Purdue may not feel like an opponent that can elevate the narrative, but it can certainly reinforce it. And most importantly, it can continue to build the path to the future for this program.

We’ll say more about Heupel along the way, both before and after this game 25 days from now. Whatever is left to build in this season, Purdue and Jeff Brohm are a fitting opponent. If Heupel gets to 8-5, he’ll best the year one records of Kiffin (7-6), Dooley (6-7), Jones (5-7) and Pruitt (5-7). Meanwhile, Brohm has Purdue at eight wins right now for the first time since 2007, the same year we use as the “remember when” benchmark. If they beat us to get to nine, it’ll be the first time since 2003 (shout out Kyle Orton & Jim Chaney).

Purdue had two separate fortnights of beating a Top 5 team by double digits, getting in the poll, getting blown out by another good team, and getting thrown out of the poll. They won at #2 Iowa 24-7 on October 16, jumped into the poll at #25, then got busted up by Wisconsin 30-13 at home the next week. On November 6, they beat #3 Michigan State 40-29. Back in the poll at #19, then they went to Ohio State, where they lost 59-31, back out of the poll. They’re 30th in receiving votes, so a win in Nashville could get them their first ranked finish since 2003.

It’s now year five for Brohm, who you’ll remember maybe/maybe not considering a jump to Tennessee after year one in the midst of 2017’s disaster. Purdue was so thoroughly non-competitive under his predecessor, he was able to make significant strides even going 17-21 in his first three seasons. We used Brohm as a template for one of our favorite exercises during our coaching search last season: progress over predecessors in SP+. And in that regard, this fall he’s looked to move Purdue from Point B to Point C.

The Vols were combustible and self-destructive under previous administrations, but they weren’t flat out non-competitive year-over-year like Purdue, so Heupel’s climb wasn’t quite as steep in that regard. Coming into the year, we thought getting from Point A to Point B would just be putting a better product on the field than three of the last four seasons. Instead, Heupel and this team gave us one of the best seasons we’ve seen at Tennessee in 14 years post-Fulmer. For us to start thinking about Point C at a much faster rate, the Vols need a strong finish. And Nashville should be a friendly venue.

When I think back to that 2019 bowl, it was the final performance for Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Nigel Warrior, and Darrell Taylor. These were guys who stayed through turmoil, led by example, and really saved the 2019 season when we were such a mess that September. Beating Indiana in that winning streak, especially in dramatic fashion, was a nice send-off. But what you really wanted for them was for what they did to be the start of something, a link in a chain that held strong. Instead, Jeremy Pruitt’s chain went all to pieces in 2020.

For all the guys who are playing their last game at Tennessee against Purdue, I’m thrilled they got the chance to experience 2021. You want to send them out the right way. And if we do, we’ll feel even more that they might be remembered not just for an 8-5 season, but for being the first link in a new chain. One that ultimately stretches back to the kind of football that regularly shows up in January.

This year has been a joy to watch. And if we finish if off the right way, we’ll spend an off-season feeling like the future will be too.

Go Vols.

What’s a good distraction while we watch the coaching carousel spin? Here are the latest round of bowl projections, with only the championship games left to play.

In the SEC, three teams are locked into the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six. I don’t see any amount of weirdness that would keep Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss out of that equation. If Pitt beats Wake Forest to win the ACC, four of Tennessee’s five losses will have come to teams in the CFP/NY6.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and will have their pick of #23 Arkansas (8-4), #24 Texas A&M (8-4), and #25 Kentucky (9-3). The Wildcats’ win over Louisville may not have helped Tennessee in the bowl equation, but it does present the opportunity for the Vols to get just their seventh win over a team that finishes the year ranked in the last 14 seasons:

• 2011 #25 Cincinnati
• 2013 #4 South Carolina
• 2015 #23 Northwestern
• 2016 #14 Florida
• 2016 #16 Virginia Tech
• 2018 #12 Kentucky

Is there an outcome in Orlando that helps Tennessee the most? Officially or unofficially, the league office isn’t going to reward a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team. If the Cats are getting preference over us either way, I’d say let’s get them out of the way and send them to the Citrus Bowl.

That then brings us to the Group of Six: Outback, Gator, Music City, Mayo, Liberty, Texas. Louisville’s win over Kentucky was almost certainly the final blow for any flickering Outback Bowl hopes. But we have seen Tennessee get in the mix after that in various projections.

In fact, at this point I can’t find anyone projecting Tennessee to the Liberty or Texas Bowls. These things are always unpredictable, but the Vols sure seem like they’re headed to the Gator, Music City, or Mayo Bowl.

Of the three, the Gator certainly carries the most prestige, though it is on December 31 and not January 1 this year. The Music City, of course, carries the best travel option for the largest percentage of Tennessee’s fan base. And the Mayo Bowl would come with some newness, as the Vols have never played in the Belk/Mayo game; Tennessee was in downtown Charlotte to open the 2018 season against West Virginia.

When you break these three down, much of your preference is going to fall to who we’re playing. Here are the projected opponents in the Gator, Music City, and Mayo Bowls from seven sources; Tennessee’s projection is listed in bold:

	Gator	Music City	Mayo
ESPN Bonagura	Wake Forest	Penn State	Miami
ESPN Schlabach	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia
CBS	Wake Forest	Minnesota	Virginia
College Football News	Wake Forest	Purdue	Virginia
247 Sports	Clemson	Minnesota	North Carolina
The Athletic	Wake Forest	Purdue	NC State
Athlon	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia

The most desirable outcome – Clemson in the Gator Bowl – doesn’t fall Tennessee’s way in any of these. But that doesn’t make it impossible. I will say, if Wake Forest beats Pittsburgh in the ACC title game, the Vols aren’t going to be matched up with the Panthers again. The Cheez-It Bowl has the ACC’s first pick after the NY6, then the Gator, then the Mayo. So a Wake win in the ACC title game could increase the likelihood of Vols vs Clemson…but could also increase the likelihood of Vols in the Music City.

What might feel like the second most desirable outcome – Penn State in Nashville – also isn’t projected anywhere. But you might get a ranked opportunity against Minnesota, who beat Wisconsin on Saturday. The Gophers are also receiving votes in the AP poll, but could sneak into tomorrow’s playoff poll. The same would be true with NC State, currently 21st; Clemson, currently 23rd; and possibly Wake Forest in a loss, currently 18th.

After that, there would be some excitement over catching Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte. The Hurricanes still carry brand value, and the Tar Heels would present an opportunity to right the wrongs of the Music City Bowl 11 years ago.

Any of those games would present an opportunity to elevate the program to various degrees. Nothing would do more for Tennessee than beating Clemson. But a ranked win over Wake Forest, NC State, or Minnesota, or a statement win over Miami, North Carolina, or Penn State would all be helpful.

Some of the other projections wouldn’t carry the same weight, though Vols vs Purdue could be plenty of fun if you like offense. Tennessee hasn’t played Virginia since the January 1, 1991 Sugar Bowl, but the Hoos ended their season with four straight losses to BYU, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Virginia Tech, so what would’ve been an opportunity game now feels more like an anniversary special.

No matter what, a win for Tennessee would lead to an 8-5 finish, which would be the most wins in year one for any Vol squad since Phillip Fulmer’s in 1993. Forward progress is available anywhere…it’s just a question of how much.

Go Vols.

The Vols handled their business against South Alabama, and picked up a couple of desired results elsewhere in the bowl pecking order. Auburn, once 6-2 and still alive for Atlanta, is now staring at 6-6 unless they can beat Alabama. And Florida fell to 5-6 and fired Dan Mullen, which should remove them as bowl competition for Tennessee.

Tennessee continues to be projected in the SEC’s group of six, almost exclusively in one of two places:

• Charlotte: CBS, ESPN Bonagura
• Nashville: 247, College Football News, ESPN Schlabach

Both of those bowls come with matchups that would excite (Penn State! Miami! North Carolina! Ranked NC State!) and those that might not (Minnesota! Unranked NC State!). They’re both good geographic fits for Tennessee’s fan base. And they’re both the best you can ask for if you’re not going to spend New Year’s in Florida in a traditional January 1 bowl.

But can Tennessee still get to the sunshine state?

Here are the most important outcomes this week:

• Thursday: Ole Miss over Mississippi State. A Rebel victory in the Egg Bowl should lock them in to the New Year’s Six, moving everyone in the SEC up one spot. It would also leave the Bulldogs at 7-5, putting them on equal footing with Tennessee. If Mississippi State pulls the upset, the SEC can still get three teams in the CFP/NY6 so long as Alabama makes the playoff; the Sugar Bowl would then be required to take the next best SEC team.
• Friday: Missouri over Arkansas. If the Razorbacks win, an 8-4 and ranked Arkansas that’s been more in the national conversation this year – and with a hungry fan base – should probably go ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order. A Mizzou victory would put the Tigers and Razorbacks even with Tennessee at 7-5. That 62-24 win in Columbia looks better by the week.
• Saturday: Alabama over Auburn. Keeps the Tigers below Tennessee in the pecking order, and keeps Alabama in the playoff chase.
• Saturday: Clemson over South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ rally helps Tennessee’s resume for sure. Let’s just not get carried away and give anyone the notion of putting them ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order.
• Saturday: Louisville over Kentucky. If you want the biggest dreams, here’s the outcome you need most. At 9-3, the Cats would almost certainly (and deservedly) be the pick for the Outback Bowl. But if Kentucky slips to 8-4, and 2-4 in their last six? Could the folks in Tampa hope for a program with more momentum?

If you get those four outcomes, you’ll have Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss in the CFP/NY6, with Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl. From there, the group of six – starting with the Outback Bowl – would be choosing from 8-4 Kentucky, 7-5 Arkansas/Mississippi State/Missouri/Tennessee, and a host of teams at 6-6 including Auburn, South Carolina, and potentially Florida and LSU.

In that scenario, the Vols could get to Jacksonville…or even Tampa. It’s unlikely, but possible.

Whatever it’s worth, here’s my most realistic scenario overall:

• CFP/NY6: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
• Citrus: Texas A&M
• Outback: Kentucky
• Gator: Arkansas
• Music City: Tennessee
• Mayo: South Carolina
• Liberty: Mississippi State
• Texas: Missouri
• Birmingham: Auburn

But if the Vols handle Vanderbilt, there should be plenty of good options available.

Win totals are at the bottom if you want to finish the run, but Tennessee’s schedule should leave everyone somewhere between 6.8-7.0 wins. With one ranked win in hand and a pair of satisfying blowouts behind it, the Vols can get one more opportunity at a win that resonates in the postseason. And there, 7-5 can still lead to 8-5, which would be the best year one record for any coach here since Phillip Fulmer.

So first the path, then the projections:

You want as many SEC teams in the CFP/NY6 as possible. The working assumption here is Georgia and Alabama are in there somewhere, and Ole Miss can be too if they win out. Those three in the CFP/NY6 should leave Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl if the Aggies beat LSU to finish. Little has been clean this year other than Georgia at the top, but that’s the simplest version to get us to the group of six, where the Vols should find themselves.

That, of course, is the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk/Mayo, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. Among those six, if the above scenario holds, you’ll have some combination of:

• Arkansas (7-3, at Alabama, vs Missouri)
• Kentucky (7-3, New Mexico State, at Louisville)
• Mississippi State (6-4, Tennessee State, Ole Miss)
• Auburn (6-4, at South Carolina, Alabama)
• Tennessee (5-5, South Alabama, Vanderbilt)
• Florida (5-5, at Missouri, Florida State)
• Missouri (5-5, Florida, at Arkansas)
• South Carolina (5-5, Auburn, Clemson)
• LSU (4-6, LA Monroe, Texas A&M)

So there’s still a bit of work to do here, including, of course, Tennessee finishing strong. Outcomes of particular importance here include Alabama winning out to stay in the CFP/NY6, Ole Miss winning the Egg Bowl for the same reason, and any additional losses for teams with a chance to finish better than 7-5 in that group.

The line is that the league office works with the schools and the bowls to make “assignments” for those six bowls. It doesn’t always go the way you think – see Tennessee’s pair of assignments to the Gator Bowl at 6-6, to our benefit – but the Vols should be well positioned if they finish at 7-5.

Could Tennessee get as high as the Outback Bowl, the most prestigious of that group? You’d need some particular madness, like Arkansas losing out and Louisville over Kentucky. But as it’s not impossible, we’ve included all six bowls in the grid below. Just keep in mind that no one actually doing projections is sending the Vols to Tampa. A couple send the Vols to Jacksonville, but most like Nashville or Charlotte. The Belk/Mayo Bowl is particularly interesting because the Vols may be “competing” with a bunch of teams from the SEC West, so geography may send Tennessee to North Carolina.

Here’s the list of potential opponents in these six bowls:

	Outback	Gator	Music City	Mayo	Liberty	Texas
ESPN Bonagura	Wisc	NC State	Penn St	Miami	Kansas St	Iowa St
ESPN Schlabach	Iowa	Clemson	Minn	UNC	Kansas St	Iowa St
McMurphy	Penn St	Clemson	Minn	UNC	Texas Tech	Iowa St
CBS	Wisc	UNC	Penn St	NC State	West VA	Kansas St
247 Sports	Iowa	Pittsburgh	Wisc	VA Tech	West VA	Kansas St
Athlon	Wisc	Clemson	Minn	NC State	West VA	Kansas St
College Football News	Iowa	Clemson	Minn	UNC	West VA	Iowa St

(If the chart looks weird on your phone, try landscape)

There’s a lot left to figure out. But chances are better than not that Tennessee is going to play someone on this list.

And if the Vols find themselves in Tampa, Jacksonville, Nashville, or Charlotte, there are plenty of enticing matchups. Anything in the Outback Bowl would be a win. Nashville is its own bonus, but the chance to play Penn State or Wisconsin could be a definite additional step for the program to end year one. Clemson remains the favorite among fans I’m sure, but an Auburn/Clemson matchup might be too much for Jacksonville to pass up if they have a say in it. But a shot at Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte would also stir interest among Tennessee fans.

At this point, what you want is opportunity. And there’s plenty still out there if the Vols handle their own business the next two weeks.

So, how do we win this thing?

The question itself is already a bit of a win. The last three times we did this against #1, it was Bama in 2017-19. And the Vols were +36.5, +29.5, and +34.5. I can live with +20.5 this week. Our community gives the Vols a 13.7% chance of victory in expected win totals, doubling up the 6.7% we gave the Vols in Tuscaloosa this year.

And I can live with Georgia in mid-November, though with expansion I’m not sure how much longer any of us are living with anything. Tennessee faced a front-loaded schedule for almost 30 years in the SEC East. Now, in better years you’ve still got a chance to win the East if you can pull the upset. And this year – which qualifies as a better year compared to where we’ve been, and where we thought we might continue to hang out – it’s all opportunity. Win, and you’ve scored one of the program’s biggest victories in 15 years. And lose – even lose badly – and you’ve done so to #1, and we already know the why. There is no outcome here – including victory! – where Tennessee doesn’t need to recruit.

Georgia’s defense is the best in the nation, with room for improvement in the annals of history:

Yeah, it's been underselling Georgia's defense all year. Still ranks them first in defensive SP+ but a NORMAL first, not "best FBS defense in years" first.https://t.co/SNqDd3Z9jg

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 10, 2021

You’ll note the Vols are +14 in SP+ on Saturday. Come within 16 of these guys – two possessions – and you’ve done better than anyone since Clemson in the 10-3 opener. Score 14 points on them, and you’ve done better than anyone all year.

The two best defenses the Vols have faced in the last three coaching staffs are the 2016-17 Crimson Tide. The 2017 edition shut out the Vol offense – shout out to Daniel Bituli – but that offense wasn’t much to write home about. However, the 2016 version snuffed out Dobbs, Kamara, etc. to the tune of 163 yards on 63 plays. You’ll recall the week before, they had 684 yards on 99 plays at Texas A&M.

Hopefully, that’s a meaningless comparison. But we have seen it before: no matter how we’ll you’re playing or will play on offense, an elite defense can still shut it down.

Can the reverse be true?

Heupel and these guys have done a tremendous job having the Vols in every one of these games deep into the second half. It’s where we hoped the program would find itself last season, in Pruitt’s year three. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect that against Georgia – I honestly don’t know what to expect – but whether it shows up or not, Heupel and these guys have earned our trust in having his team ready to go. Obviously, this is especially true on offense. On defense? Before last week, I think we all would’ve been intrigued to see these guys go after Stetson Bennett and see what happened. There’s obviously less excitement around that after the Kentucky game, but on the whole, I’m still intrigued to see if that side of the ball can make a dent.

There’s a lot of guesswork and a few common assumptions when you’re playing number one – win turnovers, hidden points, etc. – but to me, one thing jumps off the page.

This Tennessee team is no stranger to a wide gap between outcomes on a given play. The most obvious one is the difference between the offense and defense on third down: 27th nationally at 45.38% on offense, 126th nationally at 48.39% on defense.

But an even bigger gap in potential outcomes exists when Tennessee drops back to pass.

The Vols and Louisville are tied for the national lead with four 70+ yard pass plays. We’re 16th in 30+ yard pass plays. And that’s all on just 239 passing attempts this season, 107th nationally. Among teams throwing it 25+ times per game, the Vols are eighth nationally in yards per attempt.

And Hendon Hooker has added 458 yards on the ground, going for 60+ in four different games this year.

There is so much good that happens when Tennessee drops back to pass. It’s amazing the Vols are getting all that done while also taking a sack on 13.03% of their dropbacks. That’s 126th nationally via Team Rankings.

Just as the explosive plays look even better when you consider how few times we actually throw it, the sacks look even worse. It also feels like we’re living on borrowed time in the turnover battle, where Tennessee – currently +5 in SEC play – has a chance to finish in the black there for the first time since Lane Kiffin.

Georgia is ninth nationally in sack percentage, getting the opposing quarterback 9.73% of the time. If there’s any benefit here besides having all our guys healthy, it’s that we’ve already played Alabama. Not that Bama was so great at getting Hooker on the ground, but that it’s hard to simulate going against that kind of talent. We saw Josh Heupel repeatedly run it on third-and-short and get buried every time against those guys. You just have to learn and adjust.

Will the Vols make any adjustment to protect Hooker, the ball, etc. against Georgia? Or is this just part of who we are this year: when Tennessee drops back to pass, something incredibly exciting is going to happen one way or another.

Of course, the biggest hope this week:

Kirby Smart on Tennessee offense: "You talk to people…it's just so fast. You can't really simulate that in your practices."

— Marc Weiszer (@marcweiszer) November 8, 2021

Truly, we haven’t been able to simulate any of this. We’re still learning how to watch football this way. We didn’t expect to be this competitive, with everyone. We don’t know how that’ll look against Georgia’s defense. Perhaps they’re not sure exactly how that’ll look against our offense. And we head into a date with the number one team in the nation feeling good about ourselves for the long haul.

What’ll happen Saturday?

Probably something exciting, one way or another.

Go Vols.

So, you’re going to project the Vols to finish with right at seven wins this week. The math involved is if you give Tennessee enough of a chance against Georgia to counterbalance whatever chance you give South Alabama and Vanderbilt against Tennessee. But it’s a pretty safe bet to assume seven.

The interesting question here is just how much of a chance you do give the Vols on Saturday. In Tuscaloosa, that number was 6.7%. Tennessee was a 24.5 point underdog at the end of the week; the Vols are around 20.5 on this Tuesday morning.

We’re no stranger to playing the number one team in the land, having done it against Alabama seven of the last 13 seasons. Since beating Bo Jackson and #1 Auburn in 1985, the Vols have faced the top team a dozen times overall:

• 1990 Notre Dame (L 34-29)
• 1994 Florida (L 31-0)
• 2002 Miami (L 26-3)
• 2009 Florida (L 33-23)
• 2009 Alabama (L 12-10)
• 2011 LSU (L 38-7)
• 2012 Alabama (L 44-13)
• 2013 Alabama (L 45-10)
• 2016 Alabama (L 49-10)
• 2017 Alabama (L 45-7)
• 2018 Alabama (L 58-21)
• 2019 Alabama (L 35-13)

In that span, Tennessee has four wins over #2 (1985 Miami, 1998 Florida, 1998 Florida State, 2001 Florida), got #3 Georgia in 2004, and last beat a Top 5 team in The Rally at Death Valley over #4 LSU the following year.

How much of a chance do we give these Vols compared to any of those? It’s obviously less than anything from Phillip Fulmer’s tenure. But it’s probably more than most of that run against Alabama. It’s enough to be curious, just to see what happens…and this year, this week? That’s good enough for me.

Last night’s win still feels a bit like a relief. It’s unfair in some ways: any win over a ranked team still falls in the celebration category for Tennessee. You have to go back 15 years to find the Vols beating a Top 20 foe on the road (Georgia 2006, which remains Tennessee’s last Top 10 win anywhere). It qualifies as a signature win in year one. And while I enjoy this rivalry quite a bit, you don’t want to downgrade beating Kentucky just because they’re Kentucky. Credit Mark Stoops and those guys for building something worth celebrating when you beat them.

I think most of this is the way Tennessee jumped UK 14-7 and was ready to extend the lead before the fumbled exchange. Tennessee gained 189 yards on its first six snaps. It’s hard to not get a bit downhill from there. But the unstoppable feeling of the Vol offense combined with the uncomfortable feeling of Kentucky getting every third down? It made the game feel less back-and-forth and more, “Why aren’t we putting these guys away?”

So sure: Tennessee’s defense is now 126th in third down conversions allowed at 48.39%. The Vols have given up points on 33 of 35 red zone trips (94.29%, 124th) and a touchdown on 28 of those (80%, 127th). But again, it’s not complicated to see what Tim Banks’ group is going for.

Tennessee’s defense has faced 716 snaps, the most for any team playing nine games and no overtimes so far this year. They’ve given up 148 plays of 10+ yards, 114th nationally.

But they’ve only given up six plays of 40+ yards, 23rd nationally. Bend, don’t break, rinse, repeat.

They’re disruptive up front, second in the country in tackles for loss with 8.11. And sure, some of that is the enormous snap count. But they still made those plays count late in getting Kentucky’s offense off rhythm. They’re 95th in total defense if you only look at yards per game. But in yards per play, they’re 43rd. And play-for-play, in SP+ the defense rates 35th nationally: not great, but still something better than average.

Despite what we saw from Kentucky last night, this defense is still playing above what we expected from it coming into the year. In those SP+ ratings, the Vols are still in far better company than we thought we’d see in year one:

That 2012 squad is actually a decent comparison when we’re in our feelings about the defense. It’s just that those feelings feel different when you’re overperforming in a coach’s first year vs underperforming in a coach’s third. And that defense did have backbreaking end-of-game sequences against Florida and Mississippi State. Few are looking for revisionist history on Derek Dooley nine years after the fact. But we do still tend to think of 2012 as, “Offense good! Defense bad!”

This team has a great chance to be remembered for far more than that. The Ole Miss loss still feels, to most, like, “Referees bad!” And the Pitt loss gets some of that, along with -3 in turnovers. But in the long view, this team has done exactly what we hoped as a best-case scenario at the start of the year: split your toss-ups with Pitt, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, and make sure you beat South Carolina. Missouri’s defense is way worse than we thought. But those other three teams are way better. I’m not sure anyone had us going 0-2 in Neyland and 2-0 on the road in that scenario, but we’ll take it. And what we saw for much of last night from the defense is what we feared we’d see all year…and we haven’t. And when it mattered most last night, we didn’t then either.

Who knows what Georgia will reveal, and perhaps the Vols will get another toss-up in the postseason. But I’d look for ways to give this defense credit at this point in the year, not take it from them.

Two teams and several lifetimes ago, one of our favorite villains said something like, “We’ll make the free throws we need to make.” In a new era that feels increasingly like watching a basketball game, Josh Heupel got his first win over a ranked team in the Bluegrass. The offense was spectacular in a way that we’re just wholly unaccustomed to. The defense?

They made the stop(s) they needed to make.

I’m not sure how often we’ll see a game like this down the road. It felt like a bit of what we signed up for in bringing Heupel’s…well, Heuper Drive offense (shout out Joel) to Knoxville. It’s also tantalizing to watch a game like this and think, “Man, if we get some depth on defense…”.

Tennessee’s defense came into tonight 117th nationally in third down conversion percentage allowed, then gave up 12-of-17 to Kentucky. But three of Kentucky’s last five drives ended with Alontae Taylor’s pick six, and a pair of fourth down stops: a sack on 4th-and-7 with an all-out blitz, and enough pressure to force an uncatchable ball to the sideline on 4th-and-10. That made four straight incomplete passes for Will Levis, which sounds a lot better than the 4th-and-24 conversion that preceded it.

That’s one thing about this defense: late in the game, they get off the field when we need it. Against Pittsburgh, they forced consecutive punts when the Vols cut it to 41-34. The last three drives for Ole Miss ended with an interception, punt, and three-and-out. And it feels much better in victory tonight.

It feels a bit like relief, in part because the offense was so ridiculously good.

Tennessee had 9.81 yards per play, which includes three kneel downs by Hendon Hooker (otherwise known as 6.3% of our total snaps). That number was 8.76 at Missouri, in what felt like the greatest thing we’d seen in a long time. When the Vols set records against Troy in 2012, they did it with 9.45 yards per play.

Via SportSource Analytics, tonight is the second-best yards per play performance for the Vol offense of the post-Fulmer era. The only one better also came against Kentucky: 599 yards in 59 plays for Josh Dobbs and company in 2016. That’s 10.15 per play. Tonight, before the three kneel downs, the Vols had 10.66.

At Missouri, Hendon Hooker was 15-of-19 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, 11.8 yards per attempt. Tonight: 15-of-20 for 316 yards and four touchdowns, 15.8 yards per attempt. Against FBS foes, the best performance in yards per attempt for Tennessee quarterbacks with 20+ attempts in the post-Fulmer era? Before tonight, it was Jonathan Crompton against Memphis in 2009 (21-of-27 for 331 yards, 12.3 ypa). Against an SEC foe, it was Crompton against Georgia (20-of-27 for 310 yards, 11.5 ypa). Hooker, Heupel, and Tennessee’s receivers shattered those numbers tonight, and did it against a Kentucky defense that came in 32nd nationally in yards per attempt allowed.

Look, at some point we’ll stop making this comparison because it’s irrelevant. But at least for tonight: last year, Tennessee had three plays of 40+ yards. That’s three of 660 snaps, less than one half of one percent.

Tennessee had 10 plays of 40+ yards coming into tonight. Then they had three in 47 snaps in this game, plus two other gains of 37 yards.

That again creates imbalance in snaps and time of possession. It means your defense can get off the field more than they get credit for. It also means the times you don’t score on offense feel much worse, because they too are a much bigger percentage of the whole. The Vols got 45 points, and also had a fumbled exchange inside the Kentucky 30, couldn’t convert on 4th-and-8 inside the Kentucky 40, and of course walked away with nothing from 2nd-and-goal at the 4 with a chance to put the game away.

That sequence and the ensuing 4th-and-24 conversion from Kentucky gave us all a case of the oh-nos. And yet…the defense made the stops they needed to make.

The rules all change next week, when the Vols will shoot their shot against the number one team in the nation. But on the other side of that are South Alabama and Vanderbilt, which could represent wins six and seven for this team, giving them a chance to go bowling to get eight. 8-5 would be the best record for any first year coach at Tennessee since Phillip Fulmer. And more than that, Heupel got his ranked win, just the 10th in Knoxville since Fulmer left in 2008. It’s just the sixth Top 20 in that span.

At the extremes of what this offense and defense can and can’t do, the Vols got the win. The defense made the stop it needed to make. And Tennessee’s forward progress rolls on in an incredibly enjoyable year one.

Go Vols.

Opportunity knocks tomorrow night in Lexington, where the Vols will face #18 Kentucky in 40 degree glory. Tennessee started as a four-point underdog this week, but this morning I’m seeing them some places at -1. SP+ likes the Vols by four. And in expected win totals, our community gives Tennessee a 53.9% chance of victory, which is indeed a higher number than we saw going into toss-ups with Pittsburgh, Missouri, and Ole Miss.

Josh Heupel’s team has played good football this season, really good compared to what we’ve seen before/thought we would again. In SP+ these Vols remain contemporaries of the 2009, 2012, and 2016 teams, and not the company of the last four years we thought they’d keep. They went deep into the night in Gainesville and Tuscaloosa. They had a chance to beat Pitt at -3 in turnovers. And they finished the Ole Miss game with a 74.1% win expectancy in SP+. It’s pointing in the right direction for the long haul.

This is the game to get to solidify the present.

Kill The Narrative

One thing the Kentucky game has done in the last ten years is drastically impact the narrative for Tennessee. We talked about this a lot during our lengthy period of coaching uncertainty last December, but when you look at Tennessee’s wilderness period as a whole, there are really only three games that could’ve single-handedly changed Tennessee’s fate in a significant way. There are many losses that weren’t close, many that were close but were followed by too many others. But I still think three games could’ve changed the story of Tennessee in the 2010s in a meaningful way. The fourth quarter of the 2007 SEC Championship Game, which would’ve kept Phillip Fulmer employed through 2008. Change one of any number of plays from the 2015 Florida game, and you’ve given Butch Jones an SEC East title in year three.

And the 2011 Kentucky loss, which might have kept more of the staff intact and prevented the defensive meltdown of 2012.

That 10-7 loss in Lexington, now celebrating its 10th anniversary, swung the narrative hard against Derek Dooley in ways the 2012 team/defense couldn’t recover from. It was at the time a blip on the radar: Tennessee won the next five in the series in the transition from Dooley to Butch and Joker Phillips to Mark Stoops. When the Cats won again in 2017 (despite the Vols being +4 in turnovers, because we attempted six field goals), it solidified the narrative, effectively ending the Butch Jones era. Take nothing away from how Kentucky fans felt about it, but for us it was almost a relief.

And then, last year.

There was more losing behind and before Jeremy Pruitt; it wasn’t one of those games that if you change a couple plays or the entire outcome, he’s still the coach here. But considering where we were at halftime the week before, and where we left that day in Knoxville? It’s one of the most dramatic and revealing swings we’ve experienced.

October 17, 2020 was originally Tennessee’s bye week in pre-covid world. So I, like many, was getting ready for a wedding. The Vols had a halftime lead on Georgia seven days earlier before turnovers buried them. “Can’t beat Georgia when you do that,” we thought, “but we’re still a good team.” Still won eight in a row before Athens. Kentucky was 1-2 with losses to Auburn and Ole Miss, plus a win over Mississippi State. And it was Tennessee who came into this one ranked 18th.

It happened slowly, at least as I remember listening to it on the radio, and then it happened very fast. There’s a freedom that comes from changing coaches and playing well that allows us to look back on this game this week and see that’s true. Kentucky went three-and-out, and Tennessee drove to the UK 30. But Jarrett Guarantano was sacked, and the Vols punted from their own 37.

Then Kentucky fumbled at their own 45 yard line, but Tennessee gave it right back at the 26. Kentucky punted again, and we went to the second quarter scoreless.

The first pick six came in Tennessee territory, raced back 41 yards for a 7-0 Kentucky lead. The Vols went backwards on the ensuing first down, but then ripped off gains of 25, 10, 9, and 8. First-and-10 at the UK 28, no problem.

And then the second pick six, 85 yards for a 14-0 Kentucky lead. Then J.T. Shrout, who threw an interception two plays later, leading to 17-0.

Tennessee had 4th-and-1 at their own 34 with five minutes to play in the half, went for it, and converted. Then Eric Gray and Ty Chandler carried the ball ten straight times for a touchdown. 17-7 at the break, with Tennessee’s defense keeping everything alive.

To open the third quarter, the Vols again had 4th-and-1 at their own 30. This time, Pruitt elected to punt. And this time, Kentucky pounced: 76 yards in 11 plays, facing nothing more than 3rd-and-1. 24-7 Cats midway through the third quarter. In response, the Vols got one first down before Guarantano was sacked, effectively ending the drive. Kentucky added three more. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty ended the next drive, and Kentucky went 54 yards without facing anything more than 3rd-and-2. It was over with 11 minutes still on the clock. Lots of things felt over.

In Vegas, it’s the worst Tennessee has performed in the post-Fulmer era: favored by 6.5, lost by 27. Any remaining signs of life against Arkansas and Auburn died out in the same game. And the investigation sealed the deal on the Jeremy Pruitt era.

New Life From the Old

Losing to Kentucky in Knoxville for the first time since 1984 was, in many ways, the last remaining seal on the old days. There is no more, “Tennessee always beats _______________.” Removed from the heat of the moment, I think that can actually be a good thing. Too many years, too many tries, etc. – best to focus on the present, where Heupel and company are doing a great job so far.

And that’s what makes tomorrow night such a great opportunity: the chance to solidify that narrative for 2021 by beating a ranked team. The Vols would go to 5-4, with only a shot at #1 and assumed wins over South Alabama and Vanderbilt remaining. Maybe this kind of opportunity will present itself in a bowl game, maybe not. But it’s here today, and the Vols should feel like they have every opportunity to get it.

The team’s performance this year has left little doubt on whether moving on from Pruitt and company was a good thing. The investigation that ended his tenure is now ended itself, and there is no bowl ban coming from Tennessee’s side. The Vols are playing well, in hopes that recruiting will follow. And in this sport, everything follows winning, and Heupel has a chance to get his biggest one tomorrow night.

Credit Kentucky, as well, for the move from, “Losing to these guys costs everything,” to, “Beating these guys can solidify the present.” Advanced stats may not love them, but if they beat us? All that stands between them and a 10-2 season is Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and the rivalry finish with Louisville. Even after last week, that may be all that stands between them and the Citrus Bowl, at worst. That would join the 2018 team as the program’s best bowl appearance since 1951.

Under Stoops, Kentucky is free from their past. And this, so far, has felt like a good time for the Vols to make a clean break from theirs, good and bad. The future remains too soon to tell overall in Knoxville, and Stoops’ good work may make this a more anxious ride on the coaching carousel in Lexington. But no matter what, both teams have done the good work this season of making this a really big game. For both teams. In the present.

Again, credit Heupel and this team for even getting in games like this in year one.

Now’s the time to win one.

Go Vols.