Expected Win Total Machine – #1 Georgia Week

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So, you’re going to project the Vols to finish with right at seven wins this week. The math involved is if you give Tennessee enough of a chance against Georgia to counterbalance whatever chance you give South Alabama and Vanderbilt against Tennessee. But it’s a pretty safe bet to assume seven.

The interesting question here is just how much of a chance you do give the Vols on Saturday. In Tuscaloosa, that number was 6.7%. Tennessee was a 24.5 point underdog at the end of the week; the Vols are around 20.5 on this Tuesday morning.

We’re no stranger to playing the number one team in the land, having done it against Alabama seven of the last 13 seasons. Since beating Bo Jackson and #1 Auburn in 1985, the Vols have faced the top team a dozen times overall:

  • 1990 Notre Dame (L 34-29)
  • 1994 Florida (L 31-0)
  • 2002 Miami (L 26-3)
  • 2009 Florida (L 33-23)
  • 2009 Alabama (L 12-10)
  • 2011 LSU (L 38-7)
  • 2012 Alabama (L 44-13)
  • 2013 Alabama (L 45-10)
  • 2016 Alabama (L 49-10)
  • 2017 Alabama (L 45-7)
  • 2018 Alabama (L 58-21)
  • 2019 Alabama (L 35-13)

In that span, Tennessee has four wins over #2 (1985 Miami, 1998 Florida, 1998 Florida State, 2001 Florida), got #3 Georgia in 2004, and last beat a Top 5 team in The Rally at Death Valley over #4 LSU the following year.

How much of a chance do we give these Vols compared to any of those? It’s obviously less than anything from Phillip Fulmer’s tenure. But it’s probably more than most of that run against Alabama. It’s enough to be curious, just to see what happens…and this year, this week? That’s good enough for me.

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SmokeyX
SmokeyX
23 days ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

I see what you did there!

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
25 days ago

Your expected win total is 7.1.

vs Georgia: 15%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

I went ahead and gave us an extra 5% for UGA. Honestly, I’d feel a lot better about this game if our O Line play was better. I think we could still make a good game out of it.

Andrew Cooper
Andrew Cooper
25 days ago

I have us at 7 wins exactly.

I think we have about a 5% chance against Georgia, unless something happens to them between now and gameday. I’ve watched several of their games. They aren’t winning in gimmicky ways and thus being overrated. They simply line up, play solid fundamentals, and believe they have the players to beat you straight up. So far they have been overwhelmingly correct. I just don’t see us having the manpower and talent to hang with them this year. Maybe they all catch the flu.

OKVol
OKVol
25 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.9.

vs Georgia: 3%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
25 days ago

I’m at 7.0

vs Georgia: 9%

vs South Alabama: 97%

vs Vanderbilt: 94%

That I give us a 9% chance really shows that this team has got me believing in them. I think if we played UGA 10 times, we might just have a shot to beat them once.

Drew
Drew
25 days ago

Your expected win total is 7.0. vs. Georgia 10% vs. South Alabama 95% vs. Vanderbilt 95% I feel like I have to eat a lot of crow, as I was convinced Kentucky was a bad matchup we would not win. I watched Kentucky play Florida and their D-line was outstanding. But clearly neither of those teams is the one they were at the beginning of the season. Happy to have been wrong. I’m still rigging my answers so that they come out with the exact number of wins I actually expect. But I’m happy that it’s one more than I thought… Read more »

Harley
Harley
24 days ago

I am at 7.3 for the year and went out on limb to give the “men in orange” 25 against Georgia… that means we win at least a “quarter” 😉 Go Vols!

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
23 days ago

OK, so we’re wearing black like it’s a funeral, playing No. 1 on the 13th. And it’s homecoming. What could go wrong?

Your expected win total is 7.2.

vs Georgia: 30%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%