Expected Win Total Machine – Kentucky Week

5 1 vote
Article Rating

Last week, our community projected the Vols to finish with 6.54 wins, just a hair down from the preseason total of 6.74 in preseason. That number was actually up from the week before (6.45), showing increased confidence in the Vols despite the loss at Alabama.

Considering our November schedule, the real difference between six and seven projected wins is what you think Tennessee will do on Saturday night in Lexington. Last week, our community gave Tennessee a 51.5% chance of victory in the Bluegrass, numbers similar to what we’ve seen against Ole Miss (47.2%), Missouri (52%), and Pittsburgh (49.2%). We thought those would be four toss-up-ish games in preseason, and they all felt about that way heading into kickoff.

But now, heading into this kickoff, Kentucky is fresh off a faceplant in Starkville.

So we’re running the machine again this week, to see how much more confident you’re feeling against the Wildcats. The Georgia number may change a bit as well after they stomped Florida, but we’ll worry about that next week.

5 1 vote
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.5.

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

So anyone else hearing from other people/fanbases about how Tennessee is going to be a mismatch for UGA? I could see it scheme wise, but we’re just not there with the depth. Just think it’s odd that it seems more non Tennessee fans are hyping us up. I guess it’s because we’re the toughest opponent left for UGA?

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 month ago

I’m at 6.5

at Kentucky: 60%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 93%

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
1 month ago

No change from the bye week, but I wonder why I’m 6.7 and everyone else is 6.5. Maybe because I give us a higher chance against Georgia? Would that be it, Will?

Your expected win total is 6.7.

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 30%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

Drew
Drew
1 month ago

Relevant predictions: at Kentucky: 15% vs Georgia: 2% vs South Alabama: 98% vs Vanderbilt: 85% I made my predictions match perfectly with what I expect from the season. In my mind it’s pretty clear that we’re going 6-6, which is fine for the first year with a new coach and may set us up in a bowl game we could win. I still think Kentucky is a bad matchup for Tennessee. I think their strengths line up with our weaknesses. I thought we had a better shot against Ole Miss, really, given their terrible rush defense. And it’s hard for… Read more »

Harley
Harley
1 month ago

6.6… about the same. I am 50/50 on KY… our ability to get this W I think largely depends on who is “well” and our overall depth. Go Vols!