So when we look back on “the wilderness”, it’s with a healthy degree of uncertainty about where exactly we are right now. Tennessee’s record, recruiting rankings, and draft picks from 2021 will look similar to what we’ve seen for the last 10+ years. But even that similarity trends positive. If four Tennessee players are drafted this weekend (with Matthew Butler, Velus Jones, Cade Mays, and Alontae Taylor leading projections), that would match the second-highest total for Vol alumni in the last 11 years:
Six picks in 2017 (Barnett, Kamara, Sutton, Reeves-Maybin, Malone, Dobbs)
Four picks in 2013 (Patterson, Hunter, Dallas Thomas, Rivera)
And those drafts, of course, came following year three for Derek Dooley and year four for Butch Jones, more time to build on their own terms, etc.
The long view still reflects the wilderness, as Braden Gall’s research showed this week:
In the NFL Draft, the Vols are contemporaries with Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky over the last 12 years. It’s similar to what you find in wins going back through the post-Fulmer era: from 2009-2020, Tennessee went 73-75 under Kiffin, Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt. That .493 winning percentage is likewise 11th in the SEC during that span: just behind Ole Miss (.503) and just ahead of Arkansas (.466) and Kentucky (.463), with Vanderbilt bringing up the rear.
If there’s good news here, it will still feel like bad news in the past tense: though the Vols have won games and sent players to the NFL at only the 11th-best rate in the league over the last dozen years, that’s not how we’ve recruited. Tracking the 247 composite rankings back to 2010 as well, Tennessee is probably right where you expect them to be: still among the top half of the league with the other traditional powers, with a clean break to the bottom half.
Average Overall Recruiting Ranking, 247 Composite 2010-22
Team
Average
Alabama
1.69
Georgia
5.62
LSU
6.92
Florida
10.15
Auburn
10.23
Texas A&M
12.08
Tennessee
14.77
Ole Miss
22.85
South Carolina
25.62
Mississippi State
27.31
Arkansas
27.92
Kentucky
33.69
Missouri
36.38
Vanderbilt
47.54
Despite Tennessee’s struggles on the field and in sending its best players to Sunday, the Vols have still recruited as a Top 15 team nationally on average. The lowest-ranked class in this span was 25th in Butch Jones’ first two months on the job in 2013. He also turned in two Top 10 classes the next two years.
So sure, in the past tense, it’s a strike against Tennessee. But for the present and future, it’s a great sign: this program, through four different head coaches and few winning seasons, was still able to pull Top 15 classes on average. The idea that you can win here in line with the other traditional powers in this league? That still holds up quite well.
Which leads one to wonder, of course, what we might do if more wins began to follow.
In that department, the Vols are currently seventh in the 2023 recruiting rankings, have Nico in the boat, and are in on several other blue chip prospects. And the projections for this fall, before any of those kids arrive, trend toward the opportunity to make some recent history.
Do that, and Tennessee will give itself the opportunity to make some capital-H History once more. The potential for this place never left. And the Vols are edging closer to things looking a little less like the wilderness, and a little more like the promised land.
In the last 14 years, it’s a number the Vols hit only twice. Tennessee went 8-4 in 2015 and 2016 under Butch Jones. Both of those seasons came with mixed feelings, an 11-game winning streak bookended by disappointing outcomes to open 2015 and close 2016. The Vols made plenty of individual memories in that stretch, but couldn’t sustain enough success to create lasting change.
Six years later, our feelings might still be mixed about an 8-4 outcome. If that’s the case, it’s a testament to what Josh Heupel’s team did in year one.
The 8-4 finishes in 2015 and 2016 came in years three and four under Butch Jones. He went 6-6 in year two. His predecessor went 5-7 after Tyler Bray was injured. And his successor went 7-5 by way of losses to Georgia State and BYU, followed by a six-game winning streak to close the year.
An 8-4 regular season would be the best any of Tennessee’s head coaches have done in year two since Phillip Fulmer. And if you believe in diminishing returns – or at least the idea of it – Josh Heupel’s mountain was steeper than any of them considering what he inherited.
In the early returns from our expected win total machine, our community projects the Vols to win 8.1 regular season games. It’ll stay live on our site throughout the summer, then we’ll clear the board when fall camp begins and retake our temperature once we know more about transfer portal outcomes, health, and offseason chatter. Either way, 8.1 is a tantalizing number when you consider it in the form of, “What’s more likely: 7-5 or 9-3?”
Some individual percentage breakdowns we’ll talk more about as we go this summer:
It’s close, but our community gives the Vols a slight edge in a pair of games the numbers suggest Tennessee will ultimately split: a 57.5% chance of beating Florida, and a 52.8% chance of winning at LSU.
We’re still not quite ready to assume a major upset, but the Vols get puncher’s odds against Alabama (20.4%) and Georgia (18.6%).
The numbers suggest Tennessee goes 3-1 in this group of four: at Pittsburgh (65.2%), Kentucky (67.8%), Missouri (73.8%), and at South Carolina (67.8%).
If all of those outcomes held, you’d get 8-4 by way of what we might consider a disappointing loss to a team from that last group, but also a signature win over Florida or LSU. Not all 8-4s are created equal, to be sure.
We think the win total machine does a good job with managing expectations in a healthy way. In that sense, 8-4 might feel like “achievement”: not over, not under, just the head nod and yep, we probably did what we should’ve done.
But here again lies the beauty of hope, bolstered by the reality of the way Tennessee exceeded expectations under Heupel in year one. Tying the best regular season number the Vols have put up in 14 years might feel a little underwhelming at first glance. But just beyond it – well within the realm of the possible – is the kind of season that couldn’t help but elevate your program. A 9-3 finish hasn’t been done here since 2007. If that led to the Outback Bowl, that’s been done once here since then. If that led to the Citrus Bowl, that hasn’t been done here since 2001. If that led to anything beyond, that’s never been done here in the CFP format. And if the Vols won any of those bowl games to finish 10-3, that hasn’t been done here since 2004.
This is the conversation Josh Heupel and this program have built for themselves going into year two, from the ashes of everything they inherited going into year one. Doing it as well as it’s been done around here in the last 14 years is the starting point. And going beyond – and continuing to create real change for this program – is within reach.
Spring practice is over, opening night is two days closer, and it’s a good time to break out the expected win total machine. Tennessee’s number one ranking in baseball will help these next 136 days from here to Ball State pass more quickly. But after spring practice is still a good time to take the temperature, a little more free from August’s optimism.
If you’re new to our site and/or the win total machine, enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game this fall. Your number against Ball State should be closer to 100; your number at Georgia should be closer to zero, though I’m curious to see how much distance we’re feeling from there this off-season. Enter all of your percentage guesses, and the win total machine will tell you how many regular season wins you expect from Tennessee this fall.
It’s one thing to say, “We’re going 9-3!” and believe these nine games are 100% wins and those three are 100% losses, which is never how it actually works. That’s why we love the honesty the win total machine brings out, providing an expectation that should be both healthier and closer to reality.
When you submit your totals, you’ll be part of our community expected win total. You can also leave your individual win totals in the comments below for conversation. We’ll check back in with some preliminary analysis as we go.
(If you have trouble with the table on your phone, try viewing the page in desktop mode)
There were 18 coaching changes on the FBS level heading into the 2021 season; that number jumped to 29 on the carousel’s latest round this winter.
Timing – not often Tennessee’s friend these last 15 years – is definitely on our side in this regard. Last year, the Vols rode the carousel with Texas and Auburn among major powers, plus South Carolina as our contemporary. The only other power five openings were Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. Boise State came open when Bryan Harsin went to Auburn, UCF when Josh Heupel came here. That’s about it.
The 2022 year one cycle includes Florida, LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, and Washington. That’s ten schools who were in the hunt for a national championship at some point during the BCS/CFP era. Then add in Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia, and Washington State in the power five pool.
You need timing to work in your favor to help get these things right. And then, you know, you need to get it right.
It’s impossible to know anything for sure after one year. We’ve seen that play out at Tennessee before. We regularly use Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings on our site, both because they value every snap, and because they’re helpful in separating two teams with similar records.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s four previous year one seasons in SP+:
Coach
Year
Prev. Record
Prev. SP+
Year One
Year One SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Jeremy Pruitt
2018
4-8
1.2
5-7
5.5
1
4.3
Butch Jones
2013
5-7
15.1
5-7
5.1
0
-10
Derek Dooley
2010
7-6
16.2
6-7
7.7
-1
-8.5
Lane Kiffin
2009
5-7
12
7-6
16.2
2
4.2
This has gone one of two ways the last four times we’ve tried it. Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were able to take a step forward in year one, for two very different reasons. Kiffin’s team was solid, which you’d expect just two years removed from Atlanta, and more competitive than their 2008 predecessors. Pruitt’s first team had the luxury of following the program’s low point; even though they lost six games by 25+ points, it was still an improvement over 2017.
Year one for Derek Dooley and Butch Jones took a step backwards in overall competitiveness. Both of those seasons followed two of the better teams we’ve seen around here in the last 15 years. Kiffin’s one-year stint automatically put Dooley’s first team behind the eight ball, and the 2010 Vols finished 8.5 points worse in SP+. Dooley’s final team was competitive with almost everyone, but couldn’t beat any of the ranked foes they faced. Meanwhile, Butch Jones’ first team the next year beat #11 South Carolina, but suffered a handful of blowout losses, ultimately finishing 10 points worse in SP+.
Again, no guarantees after one year: Butch Jones turned in a -10 in 2013, but led easily the best Tennessee team from 2008-2021 two years later by any metric. Some situations just naturally lead to more difficult year ones (or year zeroes, as Derek Dooley would say). And that’s what we thought Josh Heupel was walking into: NCAA investigation, rough finish the year before, late to the carousel, massive transfer portal exodus.
How did Heupel actually do?
Let’s compare him to the rest of the freshman coaching class of 2021.
Uh oh, we changed coaches in the summer
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Tim Albin
Ohio
2-1
-2.3
3-9
-11.6
1
-9.3
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
6-1
5.3
4-8
-9.5
-2
-14.8
I don’t recommend it. Both of these guys followed local legends too: Frank Solich had been at Ohio since 2005. Lance Leipold won two division titles and finished the 2020 season in the Top 25 at Buffalo. As a result, both of these programs were significantly worse in 2021. No surprise here.
A missed first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Will Hall
Southern Miss
3-7
-9.1
3-9
-14.2
0
-5.1
Gus Malzahn
UCF
6-4
10.9
9-4
4.8
3
-6.1
Steve Sarkisian
Texas
7-3
16.4
5-7
8.5
-2
-7.9
Butch Jones
Arkansas State
4-7
-9.1
2-10
-17.9
-2
-8.8
Again, some struggles make more sense than others. Jay Hopson resigned after one game of the 2020 season at Southern Miss, an unusual situation Will Hall inherited this fall.
The other three in this group all brought previous power five experience at championship contenders, with Sarkisian being the hottest commodity in the cycle. And yet, play-for-play, all three teams went backwards in year one. The last time UCF lost 4+ games in the regular season was 2016. Tom Herman’s worst season at Texas was 7-6 in his first year in 2017; Charlie Strong’s two 5-7 campaigns in Austin were far more competitive than what Sarkisian turned in. And Butch Jones got off to a similar start in his first year at Arkansas State in SP+ as he did at Tennessee, though the won-loss record is certainly worse.
Again, no guarantees here – Texas did finish fifth nationally in recruiting – but these were all backward first steps.
About the same
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Terry Bowden
UL Monroe
0-10
-22.1
4-7
-20.3
4
1.8
Bryan Harsin
Auburn
6-5
11.4
6-7
11
0
-0.4
Clark Lea
Vanderbilt
0-9
-18.1
2-10
-19.4
2
-1.3
Lance Leipold
Kansas
0-9
-18.4
2-10
-19.7
2
-1.3
Jedd Fisch
Arizona
0-5
-9.1
1-11
-12.6
1
-3.5
Terry Bowden is the biggest winner of this group, which includes a lot of, “Wait and see.” Vanderbilt, Kansas, and Arizona were all winless in 2020, and combined to win five games in 2021. The situation at Auburn probably deserves its own category; in SP+ and in total wins they Bryan Harsin’s first year was almost identical to Gus Malzahn’s. Stay tuned.
A good first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Charles Huff
Marshall
7-3
3
7-6
8
0
5
Andy Avalos
Boise State
5-2
5.4
7-5
9.4
2
4
Marshall is an interesting case study, 7-3 in Doc Holliday’s final season, 7-6 in Charles Huff’s first. But the Thundering Herd lost four one-possession games last year, and were dominant in several of their seven victories. Boise State fans probably aren’t satisfied at 7-5, but three of those were one-possession losses and the Broncos also beat BYU and Fresno State on the road. If form holds here, these programs are off to better starts than their win/loss total might suggest.
A really good first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Kane Wommack
South Alabama
4-7
-16.1
5-7
-7.2
1
8.9
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2-6
-4.1
5-7
4.3
3
8.4
Shane Beamer
South Carolina
2-8
-2.9
7-6
3.9
5
6.8
Kane Wommack’s first-year squad almost got both Billy Napier (20-18) and Jamey Chadwell (27-21 OT). They also lost a four overtime game at Texas State and by a touchdown at Troy. Bielema recovered nicely from a 1-4 start to beat Penn State and Minnesota on the road.
And credit Shane Beamer, whose Gamecocks lost to the Vols and Texas A&M by 25 and 30, and almost lost to Vanderbilt in a three-week span in October. Since then, they beat Florida and Auburn, and ran away from North Carolina in the Mayo Bowl. It was a really good year one, good enough to earn him a share of the Steve Spurrier award for best year-one coach with…
A transformational first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Blake Anderson
Utah State
1-5
-16.3
11-3
0.1
10
16.4
Josh Heupel
Tennessee
3-7
4.6
7-6
17.5
4
12.9
First, shout out to Blake Anderson. A +10 in wins is twice as good as anyone else on this list, and would be most years. Along the way they smoked San Diego State for the Mountain West title. No complaints about his name at the top of this list.
But Josh Heupel is clearly above everyone else.
He followed one of the toughest and least competitive years at Tennessee with one of the most competitive teams we’ve had here in 14 years. In SP+, the 2022 Vols are the second-best team in Knoxville since 2008, bested only by the 2015 team. The Vols went 1-3 in one-possession games, with two of those losses to New Year’s Six teams from Pittsburgh and Ole Miss.
One forward-looking piece of good news here: when we get overly cautious about the Vols being #9 in 2022 SP+ projections? Tennessee’s rating there is 18.7: just 1.2 points better than last season. The model doesn’t project the Vols to be drastically better than they were last season, because it already believes the Vols were really good.
Again, no guarantees after one year. But not only did Josh Heupel do it better in 2021 than any year one we’ve seen around here, and every other first-year coach last season but one? His team also was better play-for-play than every Tennessee squad save one in the last 14 years. For first impressions, you can’t ask for much more. And it’s created a hope based in performance as much as possibility.
Here’s one thing it feels like is happening to Tennessee more often than it actually is: the Vols get to third-and-short, go fast, and get stopped because defenses know what’s coming.
Even in Josh Heupel’s fast-paced offense, no two games are exactly alike. It feels like the Vols do that on third-and-short a lot because against Purdue, Tennessee had fifteen snaps with 1-3 yards to gain on third or fourth down. That’s fifteen opportunities to pick up a first down in short yardage (via ESPN’s play-by-play data).
By comparison, the Vols never faced that situation against Kentucky.
That’s wild.
It feels like, at least to me, that the Vols get in that situation and just go zone read, with the read to the back more often than not. It’s burned into our brains because that was Tennessee’s last offensive snap in the Music City Bowl. But against Purdue, on those 15 snaps the Vols ran it 12 times, with Hendon Hooker keeping on four of them. He also had a first quarter completion to JaVonta Payton, an incomplete pass in that dreadful second quarter, and the incomplete go route to Cedric Tillman with the jersey pull.
All told, the Vols converted eight of those 15 third-or-fourth-and-shorts against Purdue. Those plays always feel like you should convert them closer to 100% of the time if it’s your team with the ball, but of course, that’s not how it works either. In overtime, Tennessee faced this situation four times, and was stopped thrice. Jaylen Wright didn’t make it on 3rd-and-1 at the 16, leading to Hooker’s fourth down scramble. And then Wright got two yards from the three, and “no gain” from the one to end the sequence.
Was it fatigue? Coming into the year, I assumed the Vols would run many more plays than usual, and questions like, “Who is the fourth wide receiver?” would be relevant. And indeed, the Vols ran 952 plays, currently 13th most in college football among teams playing 13 games. That’s 73.2 plays per game for the offense. But the Vols didn’t necessarily go deep into their bench: not sure how much of an option that actually was on the offensive line, and the starting receivers were healthy all year.
However, the Vols ran 104 plays against Purdue, by far a season high. Number two on the list: Bowling Green, 88 plays. I’m gonna say we were slightly more fresh in the season opener than the season finale. So perhaps some of what we saw at the end of the game was the kind of offensive fatigue we’re used to seeing from our defense.
That side of the ball ends the year having faced 1,011 snaps (77.8 per game). It trails only Michigan State’s defense (1,025, also playing a single overtime period in 2021) among teams playing 13 games. By comparison, last year the defense faced 69.9 plays per game. The last time we went bowling in 2019, it was 66.8.
But say this for the defense: whatever fatigue they’re facing, they’ve gotten it done when it counted at the end of almost every game. In Tennessee’s one-possession games against Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Purdue, the Vol defense made stops at the end of the game to put the ball back in the offense’s hands to tie or win.
The offense came up short in those moments in the regular season, but did have the two big scores to tie it in the final minutes against Purdue, before the missed field goal and the goal line stop.
All that to say: perhaps the issue against Purdue in short yardage was more fatigue-based than we’re giving it credit for. The Vols need depth, obviously. VolQuest had a good point over the weekend about the difference in Jeff Brohm’s program in year five and ours in year one being, in large part, just simple depth.
The short-yardage failures stand out against Pittsburgh and Purdue at the end of the game. They stand out against Alabama and Georgia because the Vols went headfirst into better talent. They had no opportunity to even exist against Kentucky, a ridiculous notion. And the Vols didn’t face a third down of any kind until the Missouri game was out of hand.
The Vols also made short yardage work to their extreme advantage against South Carolina, converting four third-and-shorts on their opening drive, softening the floodgates.
Overall, I think Tennessee is better in short yardage than my brain gave them credit for while watching the Purdue game.
And I know the Vols just simply need more bodies, on both sides of the ball, as they continue to find themselves in games with this many snaps.
Tennessee played four one-possession games this year. They went 1-3 in them against teams that are currently 11-2, 10-2, 9-3, and 9-4. In the three losses, specific calls that should’ve/could’ve gone the other way stand out:
Against Pittsburgh, a horrendous spot to leave the ball short after a third down run by Hendon Hooker with seven minutes to play and the Vols down 41-34. What should’ve been 1st-and-Goal at the 2 was instead 4th-and-1 at the 3. The Vols failed to convert on fourth down.
Against Ole Miss, Matt Corral’s forward progress was ruled stopped on what looked like a scoop and score for Tennessee in the first half. In the fourth quarter, a completion on 4th-and-24 with 54 seconds left was ruled short of the marker.
Today in overtime, Jaylen Wright was ruled stopped on forward progress before he stretched the ball into the end zone on 4th-and-Goal, which he did before the whistle blew.
Josh Heupel’s first season ends at 7-6; “Three bad calls from 10-3!” is an easy narrative. The truth is, the meat and potatoes of how Tennessee has grown this season are very much already in the pot, regardless of today’s aftertaste. It’s also true that Tennessee had additional chances to win those first two games, throwing an interception against Pittsburgh and just missing a touchdown pass from Joe Milton against Ole Miss. In that department, today was actually some form of progress: Tennessee’s offense, which failed to make the plays at the end of those two games and Kentucky (which the defense sealed), scored a pair of touchdowns in the final five minutes (plus one in overtime, some will add) to tie the game twice. The Vols had good calls in most of those situations tonight.
The Vols also had 15 penalties for 128 yards. Purdue had 5 for 61. There’s, uh, an imbalance there, one you might’ve particularly noticed in the pass interference department.
We played this game 11 seasons ago, an inspiring year one from Derek Dooley meeting a cruel end in Nashville. That one felt worse to me in the moment; I was at that game, and watched this one from my living room, so that might be part of it. We did get an NCAA rule change out of it; maybe we’ll get one here on forward progress or, even better, the exaggeration of injury.
Josh Heupel said the refs came up to him tonight and said they think there needs to be a rule change with the fake injuries.
You want to say, “Hey, we need to be better than to get beat by bad calls against Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue.” But again, those teams all won between 9-11 games this year, 12 if Pitt wins tonight. In the long run, the Vols can make progress by bringing in more talent than those programs, for sure.
But for now, Tennessee ends a promising 2021 campaign with an old reminder I don’t think this coaching staff actually needs: the best way to win close games is not to play them. Next time around in year two, can the Vols be good enough to not get beat by bad calls against teams not named Alabama or Georgia?
Tonight was a good reminder that the margins are still thin. Going forward, can the Vols continue to improve fast enough to widen them against most of their schedule?
There will never be guarantees. Tennessee needs help in the secondary: Alontae Taylor is already gone, and Theo Jackson will join him, leaving much of tonight’s group that gave up 11.1 yards per pass to Purdue (plus three picks). Tennessee needs to figure out what it’s doing in the short yardage run game, which struggled to find success. Tennessee needs to keep recruiting.
But the Vols made a ton of forward progress this year. If that continues, we’ll get beat by “forward progress” less often.
And so thus ends what we hope will be the strangest recruiting cycle of our lives. New coach not hired until January 27! First year of NIL! Unknown recruiting sanctions! A billion guys in the portal! 3-7 last year! 78-82 from 2008-2020!
At the end of all that…well, we really weren’t sure we were at the end of all that. Tennessee sought traction in Josh Heupel’s first year both on the field, and on the trail. The Vols found the former on October 2 against Missouri. The latter took until the final few weeks leading up to the early signing date.
But the results are another data point for what Heupel and his staff are building in Knoxville, and they include an incredible close with this class.
The Vols are currently 15th in the 247 Composite Rankings, but if you’ve been around here or spent time with us at SB Nation, you know what we like to value is blue chip ratio: what percentage of your signees are four-and-five star players? If you want to win a national championship, the answer needs to be 50% or better.
This staff’s finish included DL Tyre West, the highest-ranked player in the class. They also added RB Justin Williams, WR Kaleb Webb, and edge rushers James Pearce and Joshua Josephs, all four-stars. Those commitments in late November and December moved Tennessee’s class from three blue chip players to seven, giving Heupel’s first full class a ratio of 35%.
It’s not 50%, of course. But considering all of the above in the last year/last 14 years, it’s a good start by way of an excellent close.
In the 247 composite, here’s how Tennessee’s blue chip ratio stacks up in the post-Fulmer era:
Year
Blue Chips
Total
Ratio
2022
7
20
35.0%
2021
6
17
35.3%
2020
13
23
56.5%
2019
12
22
54.5%
2018
8
22
36.4%
2017
5
27
18.5%
2016
10
22
45.5%
2015
16
29
55.2%
2014
16
32
50.0%
2013
4
23
17.4%
2012
9
22
40.9%
2011
9
27
33.3%
2010
11
27
40.7%
2009
9
21
42.9%
Heupel turned in a class slightly better than Derek Dooley’s first full group in February 2011. There was certainly some instability then, but the Vols were also still just three years and change removed from Atlanta, instead of getting ready to celebrate a 15th anniversary.
More importantly, Heupel avoided a setback class. This happened at the beginning and end of the Butch Jones era. With the transition class of February 2013, Jones made up for it by landing Josh Dobbs and Cameron Sutton, then recruiting at or around a championship level in the next three classes.
But his last full class in February 2017 became part of the problem for Jeremy Pruitt. That group included Trey Smith, but the other blue chip signees either transferred or never panned out. Josh Palmer is buried in there as the 121st best WR in the class, and Josh Heupel and his staff got the best football from guys like Matthew Butler and Theo Jackson. You still need to get your evaluations right and get the most from the three stars you sign. But overall, a group like that can slow the development of your program. The transfer portal can cure some of what ails you here, but seems unlikely to solve all of one’s problems.
As this season went on, there was concern the Vols still might have to eat one of those years. But credit this staff for turning in a remarkable finish, and not falling any further behind in the talent race.
The next part, of course, is to take steps to move ahead. That too is no guarantee: in blue chip ratio, no one did it better than Pruitt (plus or minus McDonald’s bags, etc.). But talent doesn’t hurt.
In this department, the other interesting development from this class is elsewhere in the SEC East. Again, I’m not sure how much longer we’ll have an SEC East at all. But if Texas and Oklahoma are still playing in the Big 12 in 2022, there’s a chance they may actually be there until 2025 as the contracts currently state. If so, the kids who are being recruited now probably won’t see the Longhorns and the Sooners, which means the current format is the most relevant.
And in the current format, note the rise of Kentucky and Missouri.
The Cats sit 11th in the 247 rankings, with nine blue chip signees on 20 total (45%). Missouri is right behind them in 12th, with eight out of 16 (50%).
Kentucky’s blue chip ratio the year before: 22.2%. Mizzou’s: 8.3%.
This is year nine for Mark Stoops in Lexington, and the Cats are 9-3 heading to Orlando. After going 12-24 his first three years, he’s 46-29 in the last six. Our underlying assumptions – “They’re good, but not talented.” “They’re talented, but only this class.” – will be tested. Kentucky does not appear to be going anywhere.
As for Mizzou:
Mizzou’s attendance is at mid-90s levels (which is to say, it’s real bad), the team has been exactly .500 for three straight years, and Drinkwitz is out here signing what might end up the most highly-rated class in school history. https://t.co/Qu0JkDOIt9
Eli Drinkwitz is clearly a good fit for the SEC if he’s trying to dunk on Dan Mullen and Florida. But their recruiting is no doubt an interesting development. It’s easy for us to brush this aside because we feel like we got right against them, and Heupel aced the initial test of getting past Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. But if Kentucky and Missouri continue to recruit like this, they won’t be the Kentucky and Missouri we know and love.
(South Carolina, by the way: four blue chip players on 22 commits, 18.2%.)
There’s a lot left to learn about Josh Heupel and recruiting. But his first step didn’t go backwards when there was more reason than ever for that to be the case, thanks to the kind of finish that would be successful anywhere in this league. And at the same time, this league does not appear to be getting any easier.
The 2023 class is mostly a blank slate, with four-star tight end Ethan Davis in the fold, also a piece of that December commit flourish. He joins three-star safety Jack Luttrell. And that’s it for now. The Vols still have some room to work in the transfer portal as well. We’ll see where it goes from here. But a good job by this staff giving us reason to believe it can indeed go forward.
With that, the Vols are a win in the Music City Bowl away from one of the most enjoyable off-seasons we’ve seen around here in the post-Fulmer era.
One way to quantify what Hendon Hooker’s return is worth? The records he has a chance to set or approach in Nashville, despite only starting 10 of Tennessee’s 12 regular season games. There’s plenty to add to in 2022…but this is a pretty good start:
(thanks, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide, SportSource Analytics, and Sports Reference)
Single Season Tennessee Records
Yards Per Attempt
Hooker: 9.8
Current Record: Peyton Manning 1996 (8.7)
Something would have to go spectacularly wrong for Hooker not to get this one. In the last three decades, only two Vol quarterbacks ended the year with more than 8.5 yards per passing attempt: Peyton Manning in 1996 (8.7), and Erik Ainge in 2006 (8.6). Hooker is rocking 9.8 on 261 passing attempts. That’s tied for third in the nation, and tied for first (with C.J. Stroud) among QBs with more than 250 passing attempts.
Completion Percentage
Hooker: 69%
Current Record: Erik Ainge 2006 (67%)
Jarrett Guarantano had a shot at this number headed into the final two games of the 2018 season…and it did not go well. But Hooker can stay atop this leaderboard with another solid performance against Purdue. His lowest total of the year was actually his last outing (10-of-18, 55.6%). But the one time his attempts had to go way up against Georgia (37; his second-highest on the year was 28 at Alabama), Hooker still completed 64.9% of his passes against the Bulldogs.
Interception Percentage (200+ attempts)
Hooker: 1.15%
Current Record: Peyton Manning 1995 (1.05%)
This is the most impressive one to me. Manning’s number is the SEC record among quarterbacks with 300+ passing attempts. Hooker would need to throw it 39 times to get there, which seems unlikely, but again, he only started 10 games. Manning threw four interceptions on 380 passes. If Hooker doesn’t throw a pick against Purdue, he needs 24 passes to tie Manning, 25 to surpass him.
Appearances on Top X Lists
Passing Touchdowns
Hooker: 26, currently 7th
If Hooker throws a touchdown pass in the Music City Bowl, he’ll tie Casey Clausen ’03, Jonathan Crompton ’09, and Josh Dobbs ’16 for fourth on Tennessee’s single-season list with 27. There’s a jump from there, but if Hooker goes wild and throws four touchdown passes to get to 30, he’ll become just the fourth Vol QB to do so in a single season: Peyton Manning ’97 (36), Tyler Bray ’12 (34), and Erik Ainge ’07 (31).
Passing Yards
Hooker: 2,567, currently 12th
He needs 233 yards through the air for a Top 10 season at UT. In doing so, he would pass the greatest single seasons from Andy Kelly (1991) and Jonathan Crompton (2009). He’s already passed the best individual seasons from Heath Shuler (1993) and Tee Martin (1999). If you want to really feel old and see how football has changed:
Heath Shuler 1993: 184-of-285 (64.6%) for 2,354 yards (8.3 ypa), 25 TDs, 8 INTs, plus 76 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Vols averaged 42 points per game.
Hendon Hooker 2021: 180-of-261 (69%) for 2,567 yards (9.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 3 INTs, plus 561 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Vols average 39 points per game.
Shuler was the Heisman runner-up in 1993.
Rushing Yards by a QB
Hooker: 561, currently 4th
He’s not going to get Josh Dobbs’ record from 2016 (831). But if Hooker runs for 110 yards, he’ll pass Dobbs’ 2015 season for second place on this list. And again, in just 10 games started going into the bowl. Dobbs ran for 64 yards per game in 2016, and was only sacked 25 times. Hooker is at 51 yards per game in his 10 starts plus Pittsburgh, but Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times this year.
There’s a whole list he can go after in 2022, at Tennessee and beyond. Most notably, there are only four 3,000 yard seasons at Tennessee: two for Manning, one for Bray, and one for Ainge.
But he’s already off to a sensational start. Pay it off in Nashville, and there will be lots and lots of word count on Hendon Hooker for the next eight months.
Will and a muffled Joel (sorry for the technical difficulties!) are once again joined by former Rocky Top Talk cohort Chris Pendley, this time to talk about all things Heupel, hoops, and what’s happening over the holidays.
A big congrats to Krusher, who took our regular season confidence points trophy with a record of 194-76 straight up and 2,188 confidence points. That was just enough to get past GeorgeMonkey (2,183), with Jahiegel and wedflatrock (2,178) tying for third. Rounding out the Top 10 are several old friends from the Rocky Top Talk days: keeps corn in a jar, PAVolFan, Orange on Orange, birdjam, crafdog, and memphispete. Congrats all!
We move now to the bowls: 43 games on the docket, including the national championship, between December 17 and January 10. That means plenty of room for continued chaos with confidence points in our pick ’em contest, which as always, you can join free at Fun Office Pools. Looking forward to celebrating football from the Bahamas Bowl to the title game this holiday season – the pool is open, come on in.
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