There’s no escaping the kinds of conversations we have after a loss like that. Losing to Alabama by 30+ points was, sadly, one of the more normal things about yesterday in Neyland Stadium; the Vols have now lost the last five in this series by 39, 38, 37, 22, and 31. When it happens in your coach’s third year, you have to ask about progress. When the coach is asked about progress, he has to say we’ve made some. When fans hear the coach say we’ve made some, we go back to that list of scores, rinse repeat.

We could have painful conversations about how to narrowly define that progress against Alabama (did you know 17 points for the Tennessee offense is tied for the second-most the Vols have scored in regulation in this rivalry since the seven game winning streak ended in 2001?!?! See, you don’t want to have this conversation.)

But it’s more helpful, especially here at the bye week, to take the most obvious lesson of 2020: we’re not ready to measure progress primarily by what we do against Alabama and Georgia.

This was a valid question at the start of the year, and possibly one with an answer we liked at halftime of the Georgia game. Three turnovers made it swing hard the other way, but Tennessee’s inability to move the ball at all would’ve left us with the same answer either way. Closer, maybe, but not ready to win without courting weirdness and perfection. Against Alabama, same answer, only more obvious.

And part of not being ready to measure ourselves against those two is also being the sort of team that can in no way turn it over on three consecutive possessions and have two of them ran back for touchdowns against anybody. Do that against Arkansas and maybe even Vanderbilt, and we’ll get blown by again same as Kentucky did.

But it’s also true, here in year three, that we shouldn’t be measuring progress primarily by what we do against the SEC East’s second tier either. That measurement was very important last year, and the Vols passed the test. Not with enough flying colors to make them bulletproof against that group, as we’ve seen. But whatever has become of our history and our culture, none of us will get where we want to go if we only value what happens against Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.

You can’t make it only about beating the second tier in year three here. And we’re clearly not ready to make it about beating Alabama or Georgia.

That leaves us with the space between: isn’t the best way to measure progress this year by what the Vols do against teams like Texas A&M, Auburn, and Florida? Wasn’t that true at the beginning of the year, only skewed by the schedule that gave us Georgia and Alabama first?

If so, good news: here come those games.

Tennessee’s schedule has, for as long as I’ve been alive, been light on November. It’s what happens when you traditionally play Kentucky and Vanderbilt to close the year, had Ole Miss in there before divisional play, then added South Carolina on Halloween weekend and Missouri in early November after that. Since divisional play began in 1992, the Vols have played only 16 ranked teams in November/December in the regular season. That’s 16 in 29 seasons. Six of those are non-conference foes from 2005 and earlier; Tennessee doesn’t schedule a marquee non-conference opponent in November anymore. And the Vols haven’t faced a Top 10 opponent in November since 2013.

Playing a ranked opponent in November/December is something that happens basically every other year on average, when the Vols have caught Kentucky or Missouri in an up cycle, or a late-season SEC West rotating opponent like LSU in 2017 or Auburn in 2013. It’s aggressively normal for the fate of our season to be decided by what happens in September and October, and if the fates are unkind, we talk about playing youth and getting ready for next year.

But not this time, at all.

Now, the Vols will get Arkansas (receiving votes), #8 Texas A&M, Auburn (receiving votes), Vanderbilt, and #10 Florida. Not only will these be the most meaningful opportunities of the season, they’ll be the most meaningful outcomes for the future.

In year one, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols gave themselves a chance to do something memorable when they beat #12 Kentucky, then got blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. In year two, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols dug themselves quite the ditch in the first half of the year, then created their own meaning in a six-turned-eight-game winning streak. Those wins were incredibly meaningful. But the bar here is still higher than the teams Tennessee beat in that run last year.

The bar isn’t Alabama and Georgia, not yet. But if you want to clear that one, we need better players. Best way to get better players is to win games. In 2020, I don’t think anyone should be on the hot seat; these aren’t, “Should he be fired?” games. But they might control the speed of Tennessee’s progress in the future. How fast we can start measuring ourselves against the Tide and Dawgs will depend on how quickly we can get more of those players.

The Vols should play youth if it helps them win now, not next year. Because right now, plenty of real live progress is left on the the table for this team, and plenty of more winnable games that could still make for some of the better memories we’ve had around here in a long time. Can they take care of business against Arkansas in a game that’s suddenly so much more dangerous? Then what can they do in search of their first Top 10 win since 2006 when that Top 10 opponent isn’t Georgia or Alabama, as the Dawgs and Tide represent nine of the last ten Top 10 opponents we’ve faced?

Can they give themselves a chance to get Florida at the end of the year?

You’re going to get some answers in the second half of this year, and they will be more meaningful than the answers we’ve heard already. I don’t know if we’ll like them or not. But it makes a lot more sense to judge these Vols by what they do against A&M, Auburn, and Florida than what they did against Alabama and Georgia.

I think these next five will be the most meaningful set of games for Jeremy Pruitt yet. It’s valuable for the future. But it’s also still incredibly valuable for the present. Progress, meaning, and memories are still out there for this team to have. And if they get them, the Vols will give themselves a better chance to make memories against the Tide next time.

Credit Pruitt for the winning streak last year. Credit Bama for being Bama. Progress for the Vols is somewhere between.

And it’s still out there in the present, not the future.

Two weeks after facing one of the best defenses we’ve seen since playing both LSU and Alabama in 2011, the Vols get one of the best offenses we’ve seen in the last 15 years. The Crimson Tide are number one in offensive SP+ this year, and their 48.0 rating puts them in elite company among offenses the Vols have faced in the last 15 years.

In SP+, here are the 10 best offenses the Vols have seen since 2005. What have Tennessee defenses been able to do against units like this? Considering what the Vols have been since 2005, the answer is usually not much…but there is one sliver of hope if you want it.

(Full chart at the bottom of the post)

10-9. 2013 & 2012 Alabama

The A.J. McCarron Tide teams had no trouble with Sal Sunseri’s defense in 2012, then dominated in Butch Jones’ first year as well: 44 points in 2012, 45 points in 2013.

8. 2018 Georgia

The Dawgs led 24-0 after the first drive of the third quarter, but Tennessee’s defense forced consecutive stops to get it close again at 24-12. Georgia overwhelmed the defense on the following drive, then used a short field via fumble to get the final seven points in a 38-12 win.

7. 2015 Arkansas

Of the four games the 2015 Vols lost, all by one possession, the most honest defeat came to an 8-5 Arkansas team with three one possession losses of their own. The Hogs weren’t sexy, but they were ruthlessly efficient with Brandon Allen and Alex Collins. They only scored 24 points against us, but piled up 494 yards, turned away twice inside the 10 yard line late with a missed field goal and a fourth down stop.

5a/5b. 2013 Auburn & 2013 Oregon

The participants in the 2010 BCS title game were plenty good three years later. The Ducks Marcus Mariotaed the Vols in week two, going for a ridiculous 59 points and 687 yards. The Tigers made for a more compelling football game later in the season, thanks in part to a pick six just before halftime that pulled the Vols within seven at 27-20. But Tennessee would be outscored 28-3 from that point on.

4. 2019 Alabama

Most of these numbers belong to Tua Tagovailoa, who was of course knocked out of the Tennessee game then lost for the year the next month against Mississippi State. But the 2019 Tide are the only offense on this list to gain less than 400 yards against the Vols, and join 2015 Arkansas as the only ones to score less than 38 points. If you’re looking for hope, this is the best available option this week.

3. 2020 Alabama

Stay tuned.

2. 2007 Florida

Tim Tebow’s Heisman season included a one possession game and the Vols with the ball with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then the Gators scored 31 unanswered points, first via an Arian Foster fumble returned for a score, ultimately winning 59-20 with 554 yards of offense…which was a whole lot worse in 2007 than it sounds today.

1. 2018 Alabama

For those of us wondering if Tua was as good as advertised before our first encounter, the answer was an emphatic yes: 58 points and 545 yards, and Bama hit 51 points with 13 minutes to play in the third quarter. If you’re looking for the worst case scenario Saturday, it’s this.

While the 2020 Tide offense isn’t quite at 2018 Tua levels yet, it’s also helpful that the 2020 Vol defense has come a long way from 2018. The thing that’s been hardest for me to remember this week is Tennessee’s performance against South Carolina and Missouri. For the moment, the Vols still have the second best defense in the SEC in SP+; it sure looked like it in the first half against Kentucky.

Any best case scenarios for the Vols, in general, include some version of, “Let’s see what happens when we quit turning it over,” especially on consecutive drives. It’s too much to ask this Vol defense to stop Alabama, especially when Georgia’s all-world defense just tried and failed. But we’ve already seen enough of a blueprint in this matchup last year. Tua was 11-of-12 before he got hurt, the one incompletion a costly red zone interception. But once he went out, Tennessee’s defense kept the Vols in the game with a third down sack, forcing a missed Alabama field goal, forcing and getting a 3rd-and-10 stop, then getting a 3rd-and-6 stop after a holding call gave Bama 2nd-and-14.

You’re not going to stop these guys often, so if you get them in third-and-long, you’ve got to make it count. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in third down conversions at 61.9%, in part because they’re so good on first and second down. How much can Tennessee’s defense take off from that number?

SP+ likes Bama to score 37 points on Saturday; no joke, Tennessee’s defense could give up 30+ and still feel like they did a pretty good job. They’ll need something from the offense, of course; it’s a good week for the 2018 Auburn gameplan, with Tennessee’s receivers winning one-on-one balls deep down the sideline. I don’t know who’s going to play the most number of snaps at quarterback for Tennessee, but it was Jarrett Guarantano on that day two years ago, so perhaps there’s something in this particular matchup that suits him a little more than what he’s seen the last two weeks.

This is a historically great Alabama offense. Can a relatively good Tennessee defense, at least in our recent history, get off the field enough times to make it interesting?

Here’s the full chart of the best offenses the Vols have seen in the last 15 years in SP+:

Opponent	SP+ Offense	Pts Allowed	Yds Allowed
2018 Alabama	50.9	58	545
2007 Florida	50.1	59	554
2020 Alabama	48
2019 Alabama	47.7	35	373
2013 Auburn	46.8	55	479
2013 Oregon	46.8	59	687
2015 Arkansas	46.6	24	494
2018 Georgia	45.9	38	441
2012 Alabama	45.7	44	539
2013 Alabama	45.6	45	479

Tennessee opened as a 20-point underdog to Alabama this week, and as I’m writing this, the line is currently Tennessee +21. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played four games, so the SPM is using only 2020 data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 23.5
• Alabama’s Scoring Offense this year: 48.5
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.3
• Alabama’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8

Tennessee’s offense against Alabama’s defense

The Alabama scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 24.5
• Kentucky 20

Tennessee scored only 7 points against Kentucky [FLAG — see below], but 31 against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 85% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama 24.4.

Tennessee’s defense against Alabama’s offense

The Alabama scoring offense of 48.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Georgia 33
• South Carolina 30.5

Georgia got 44 and South Carolina got 27 against Tennessee. Combined, that’s 112% of what those teams usually score. So . . . estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee: 54.3

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.4, Alabama 54.3

From the perspective of Alabama

Alabama’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.3 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Texas A&M 29
• Missouri 38

Alabama scored 38 points against Missouri but put 52 on Texas A&M. Together, that’s 134% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee 39.2.

Alabama’s defense against Tennessee’s offense

The Tennessee scoring offense of 23.5 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• Texas A&M 27.5

Missouri got only 19 points against Alabama, and Texas A&M got only 24. Combined, that’s 81% of what those teams usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama: 19

Estimated score: Alabama 39.2, Tennessee 19

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 21.7

SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -25.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

Honestly, that looks about right to me. If there’s something to quibble about, it’s using Kentucky as a scoring defense comp from Tennessee’s perspective, as the Vols getting only 7 points in that game was (hopefully) an anomaly.

If you use all of Tennessee’s 2020 games as defensive comps instead, the offense is scoring 92% of what their opponents usually give up. If you remove the Kentucky game, that number is 106%. So, let’s call it 100%. Against Alabama, you’d expect the Vols to score what Alabama usually gives up, which is 28.8. That would make the score from Tennessee’s perspective Tennessee 28.8, Alabama 54.3, and that would change the final calculation to Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 23.9, a spread of 22.9.

Although that’s not much of a difference, I’ll go ahead and go with it and make my own prediction Alabama 47, Tennessee 24. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Alabama will probably cover the 20- to 21-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas had Alabama as a 20-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 64, that translates to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 22.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama by 18.5 (Tide 37, Vols 19) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning. He’s using a 21-point spread and thus does not like the Tide to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Alabama will cover both the opening 20-point and the current 21-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Alabama 42, Tennessee 22 (Tide -20)
• SP+: Alabama 37, Tennessee 19 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Alabama 47, Tennessee 22 (covers)
• Me: Alabama 47, Tennessee 24 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.

What do y’all think?

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 12-15 (44.44%) overall, 6-5 (54.55%) in Category 2, and 4-1 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 69-73 (48.59%) in Category 1, 31-29 (51.67%) in Category 2, and 15-12 (55.56%) in Category 3.

The GRT SPM and SP+ had identical records this week, as SP+ also went 12-15 against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use. Both systems also had identical records using the spreads that SP+ uses: SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads for the second week in a row, as did the GRT machine. All of that said, SP+ is still way ahead of our machine for the season with a record of 82-60 (57.75%) overall (using our spreads). Using its own spreads, SP+ is 54% for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 8 of the 2020 college football season. For what it’s worth, I am very wary of all of the Big 10 games, as our machine often isn’t especially good at the beginning of a season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 8 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 13 (!) Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Note, though, that there are some Big 10 games of which to be wary.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols host No. 2 Alabama at 3:30 on CBS this Saturday, and there is a full slate of great games on as well, as college football welcomes the Big 10 to the party this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

If you like Thursday night college football, this could be a fun one.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Hello, Big 10 football!

Gameday, October 24, 2020

The noon slot this Saturday features a Top 25 ACC matchup between No. 23 NC State and No. 14 North Carolina on ESPN, a first look at Ohio State on Fox, and future Vols opponent Auburn in action against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team on the SEC Network.

The main feature for Vols fans this week kicks off at 3:30 on CBS when Tennessee hosts No. 2 Alabama. In case you or your DVR care, there’s also a Top 25 Big 12 matchup over on Fox between No. 17 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma State and a couple of former Vols opponents in action on the SEC Network.

The evening slot features No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 21 Minnesota at 7:30 on ABC and also includes former Vols opponent South Carolina taking on LSU at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um, they appear to allow a lot of passing yards, but . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . they pick off a lot of passes.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I would warn against falling prey to the promise of yards through the air, but honestly, what other options are there? It’s going to be even more difficult to run against the Tide. But the entire state of Tennessee is going to come unglued at the first interception. The Tennessee offense is just plain going to have to do a better job of finding something that works and doing that.

Here’s an idea: Pass on traditional running downs and run on traditional passing downs. It’s worth a try.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

These guys suck at 4th down. (Yes, that is sarcastic.) The Vols might be able to hold their own against the run on defense for a bit.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is here, there, and everywhere, and it’s big, fast, ferocious, and wearing the wrong colors.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Stop the run and hope for the best against the passing game. Get some turnovers, and when one comes your way, score.

Special teams

Link to table

Maybe there’s something there for the Vols in the punting and punt return game. If only we could get them to punt.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Alabama’s not much better in the penalty department than Tennessee, so there’s an opportunity for some free, hidden yards there. Take them. And turnovers are villains, but they can be fickle. Let’s hope they switch jerseys this weekend.