Gameday on Rocky Top

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 12-15 (44.44%) overall, 6-5 (54.55%) in Category 2, and 4-1 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 69-73 (48.59%) in Category 1, 31-29 (51.67%) in Category 2, and 15-12 (55.56%) in Category 3.

The GRT SPM and SP+ had identical records this week, as SP+ also went 12-15 against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use. Both systems also had identical records using the spreads that SP+ uses: SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads for the second week in a row, as did the GRT machine. All of that said, SP+ is still way ahead of our machine for the season with a record of 82-60 (57.75%) overall (using our spreads). Using its own spreads, SP+ is 54% for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 8 of the 2020 college football season. For what it’s worth, I am very wary of all of the Big 10 games, as our machine often isn’t especially good at the beginning of a season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 8 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 13 (!) Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Note, though, that there are some Big 10 games of which to be wary.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols host No. 2 Alabama at 3:30 on CBS this Saturday, and there is a full slate of great games on as well, as college football welcomes the Big 10 to the party this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

If you like Thursday night college football, this could be a fun one.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Hello, Big 10 football!

Gameday, October 24, 2020

The noon slot this Saturday features a Top 25 ACC matchup between No. 23 NC State and No. 14 North Carolina on ESPN, a first look at Ohio State on Fox, and future Vols opponent Auburn in action against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team on the SEC Network.

The main feature for Vols fans this week kicks off at 3:30 on CBS when Tennessee hosts No. 2 Alabama. In case you or your DVR care, there’s also a Top 25 Big 12 matchup over on Fox between No. 17 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma State and a couple of former Vols opponents in action on the SEC Network.

The evening slot features No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 21 Minnesota at 7:30 on ABC and also includes former Vols opponent South Carolina taking on LSU at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um, they appear to allow a lot of passing yards, but . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . they pick off a lot of passes.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I would warn against falling prey to the promise of yards through the air, but honestly, what other options are there? It’s going to be even more difficult to run against the Tide. But the entire state of Tennessee is going to come unglued at the first interception. The Tennessee offense is just plain going to have to do a better job of finding something that works and doing that.

Here’s an idea: Pass on traditional running downs and run on traditional passing downs. It’s worth a try.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

These guys suck at 4th down. (Yes, that is sarcastic.) The Vols might be able to hold their own against the run on defense for a bit.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is here, there, and everywhere, and it’s big, fast, ferocious, and wearing the wrong colors.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Stop the run and hope for the best against the passing game. Get some turnovers, and when one comes your way, score.

Special teams

Link to table

Maybe there’s something there for the Vols in the punting and punt return game. If only we could get them to punt.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Alabama’s not much better in the penalty department than Tennessee, so there’s an opportunity for some free, hidden yards there. Take them. And turnovers are villains, but they can be fickle. Let’s hope they switch jerseys this weekend.

In the last 30 years, 13 Vol quarterbacks have attempted at least 250 passes as a multi-game starter. Right in the middle of that list is Jarrett Guarantano, who has now thrown 753 passes in a Tennessee uniform. The six quarterbacks in front of him are record-setters and/or champions of one kind or another: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Dobbs, Bray, Kelly. Not far behind him are Tee Martin and Heath Shuler, who started for only two years. And the rest of the list is filled with guys who won, lost, and in some cases re-won the starting job: Matt Simms, Rick Clausen, Justin Worley, and Jonathan Crompton.

It’s Crompton who feels like the closest comparison to Guarantano a lot of times. Where Guarantano has mixed and matched good and bad in his career, Crompton felt like all of the latter before a stunning transformation to the former. He was at the helm of the Clawfense, which guaranteed his numbers would suffer in comparison. And before that Georgia game, now 11 years old, Crompton’s bad in that offense felt worse than anything I’d seen before.

So there’s a temptation, after losing 34-7 to Kentucky in Knoxville, to throw that “accolade” on Guarantano, especially when it follows the second half at Georgia, and Georgia followed up by surrendering 41 points to Alabama. At 753 pass attempts, we have plenty of data on JG. And it can feel like we keep banging our heads against the same wall.

But over the full course of those 753 pass attempts, Guarantano isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen. In fact, he’s among the top five of those thirteen quarterbacks in the stats that cause the most frustration (data via SportSource Analytics and Sports Reference).

In touchdown-to-interception ratio, Guarantano is fifth among those thirteen QBs, behind Shuler, Manning, Bray, and Casey Clausen. Guarantano has 36 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions, adding three to his total in the last six quarters. “He’s just not accurate,” is a common complaint, especially after struggling so mightily on third down early this season. But in completion percentage, Guarantano (61.2%) is fourth on that list behind Manning, Shuler, and Dobbs.

In yards per attempt, a holier grail than many quarterback statistics, Guarantano is fifth behind Manning, Bray, Shuler, and Martin.

And in interceptions per attempt…Guarantano is first. Not as in worst. As in best: Guarantano has thrown 16 interceptions in 753 attempts, firing one on 2.12% of his passes. Heath Shuler threw 12 in 513 attempts, 2.34%. Peyton Manning threw 33 in 1,381 attempts, 2.39%.

Take his entire career or even his entire season this year, and Guarantano’s numbers are solid. So why do we feel like things are so bad?

I think Guarantano’s problems remind me most of the Arian Foster conversation: “He fumbles all the time!” Which wasn’t true. But his fumbles often came at the worst possible times in critical moments: at the goal line against South Carolina in 2005, a scoop and score in the Outback Bowl against Penn State, another against Florida in a one possession game in 2007, inside the five at UCLA in 2008, one more scoop and score at Auburn a few weeks later. That’s five fumbles in four years, but it was enough to plant the idea in the minds of many.

Guarantano doesn’t turn it over all the time; as interceptions go, he turns it over less than any long-term Tennessee starter in at least the last 30 years.

But when he does turn it over, he has a habit of doing it in bunches and bad moments.

I looked up each of his 16 interceptions. I added the first two from his freshman year for completion’s sake, but I wouldn’t judge him too harshly by what he did in 2017. But starting with the Florida game in 2018 – in something that just felt like unique bad luck at the time – you’ll notice a pattern:

Jarrett Guarantano’s Career Interceptions

1. 2017 Alabama: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols down 38-7)

2. 2017 Vanderbilt: First play of the drive (Vols down 35-17)

3-4. 2018 Florida: Strip sack on the opening drive, intercepted at the Tennessee 12 yard line on the next drive to help Florida take a 14-0 lead. Intercepted on the first play of the drive in the third quarter (Vols down 33-6).

5. 2018 Vanderbilt: Last drive of the first half (Vols down 17-0)

6. 2019 Georgia State: Fumble on pass in the flat on the second play of the game (not his fault?), strip sack at midfield on the drive following Georgia State taking a 28-23 lead, sack and interception on the first two plays of the drive when Georgia State led 35-23.

7. 2019 BYU: Third play of the third quarter at the UT 31 yard line

8-9. 2019 Florida: Intercepted in the end zone (Jennings bobbled), then intercepted at midfield, both with Florida leading only 7-0

10. 2019 UAB: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols led 23-0)

11. 2019 Vanderbilt: Intercepted on the opening drive

12-13. 2019 Indiana: Intercepted on the last drive of the first half, then pick-sixed on UT’s second play of the third quarter

14. 2020 Georgia: Strip sack to open the third quarter, interception at the UT 32 three plays later, scoop and score in the fourth quarter

15-16. 2020 Kentucky: Fumble at the Kentucky 26, pick six on the next drive, pick six on the following drive.

Throw in the goal line scoop and score at Alabama last year, and you’ve got a mess here.

Of Guarantano’s 16 interceptions:

• Three in the end zone
• Seven within the first three plays of the drive, which usually means bad field position
• Three pick sixes, all in the last five games

Six different times, Guarantano has been involved with turnovers on consecutive drives: 2018 Florida, 2019 Georgia State, 2019 Florida, 2019 Indiana, 2020 Georgia, and 2020 Kentucky. When it rains, we drown (or become the only team to come back from down 13 with less than five minutes to play all year).

The stakes were higher for Arian Foster, who was surrounded by more talent. You can chicken/egg that sentence. These turnovers don’t all fall at the feet of Jarrett Guarantano, who has taken a ton of punishment over his career and is still seeing his guys struggle with pass protection in front of him.

Guarantano doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. But he doesn’t throw a lot of harmless ones either. And that has repeatedly put the Vols in bad positions they’re usually not capable of overcoming.

I don’t know that any version of this Tennessee team is capable of overcoming Alabama, though I like their odds better a week before kickoff than I did last year, and they certainly had their chances then. I don’t know for sure what you do after that, or how you feel about Harrison Bailey with no spring practice and little fall camp. At this point in his career, I think it’s best to accept Guarantano for who he is, and what he can and can’t do. He’s actually statistically better at not throwing interceptions than any Tennessee starter of my generation. But when it gets away from him, it really gets away. What does Jeremy Pruitt do at quarterback to keep things from getting away from the Vols this year? We’ll find out more on Saturday.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Took a hit this week: Passes had intercepted fell from No. 5 to No. 45, Red zone offense went from No. 25 to No. 44, and completion percentage fell from No. 27 to No. 36

Currently needs improvement: Deep breath . . . First downs offense, sacks allowed, team passing efficiency, passing offense, rushing offense, passing yards per completion, scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conversion percentage

Improved this week: Rushing offense went from No. 66 to No. 57

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense, total defense

Took a hit this week: Nothing major here, except that first downs defense went from No. 26 to No. 33, red zone defense went from No. 33 to No. 48, and 3rd down conversion percentage defense went from No. 46 to No. 54

Improved this week: Total defense went from No. 31 to No. 24, passing yards allowed went from No. 42 to No. 28

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, net punting, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Net punting went from No. 13 to No. 24

Improved this week: Nothing

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Turnovers lost (No. 13 to No. 51), turnover margin (No. 24 to No. 50), fumbles lost (No. 28 to No. 38), fewest penalties (No. 29 to No. 38), fewest penalty yards (No. 30 to No. 40)

Improved this week: Nothing, unless you want to count fumbles recovered going from No. 14 to No. 9

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers are not yet in the bottom third, but they are trending HARD in that direction.

Turnovers. Anathema to college football. A temporary indiscretion that holds the power to undo untold amounts of hard work. In an instant, they can ruin your play, your day, or even your season.

Tennessee had four of them yesterday against the Kentucky Wildcats, and they all came in such rapid succession that it sucked the wind out of the sails for the rest of the game.

The Vols’ offense punted on its first series after a 32-yard drive and then recovered a Kentucky fumble at the Wildcats’ 45-yard line. Tennessee then drove to the 26, but fumbled when the running back bumped into quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s arm as he was beginning his throwing motion. Kentucky recovered.

No harm done. Yet. The defense forced a punt after Kentucky went only 9 yards, and although the punt flipped the field, the Vols got the ball back.

And then came the harm. With fury and malice.

Guarantano threw a deep out route to the opposite side of the field, and defensive back Kelvin Joseph jumped the route, intercepted the ball, and ran it back 41 yards for a touchdown.

On the Vols’ next series, Guarantano led the team from its own 25-yard line to the Kentucky 28, but then threw another interception, this one to Jamin Davis, who ran it back 85 yards for another touchdown.

Jeremy Pruitt sat Guarantano and gave the reins to J.T. Shrout for the next series. The offense ran one play for 3 yards, had a personal foul penalty on the next, and then Shrout threw an interception. Seven plays later, Kentucky converted that gift into a field goal.

At that point, Kentucky had only 56 total yards, but led 17-0. The drive chart looked like this:

That’s not how drive charts are supposed to look.

Going back to the second half against Georgia last week, Tennessee has had two fumbles, two interceptions, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and 21 instant points given up by the offense in only four quarters of football.

Whatever superlative you want to use to describe that, it fits. You just can’t win that way. It’s how an otherwise evenly-matched game becomes a blowout in the wrong direction.

Tennessee and Kentucky were within seven total yards of each other yesterday. They were within five passing yards and 12 rushing yards of each other. They had an equal number of first downs. And Kentucky won 34-7 because Tennessee had four turnovers.

Just how bad does it hurt?

The Vols didn’t just go on a turnover binge, they took out a credit line and went to 5th Avenue. Football Study Hall estimates that each turnover is generally worth about 5 points on the scoreboard. Sometimes they are worth less, sometimes more, as the continuum runs from a mere lost opportunity all the way to a lost opportunity plus 7 points for the other team on the same play. Interceptions and fumbles recovered and ran back for touchdowns are the most outlandish purchases, and the Vols’ have been going deep into debt the last four quarters.

What in the world has happened?

That, of course, is the Big Question. Countless fingers are currently aimed directly at Guarantano, and he’s certainly a person of interest in the lineup. Many are also pointing at that nearly-perfect-from-a-recruiting-stars-standpoint offensive line.

We should also give proper credit to the opposing defenses. Georgia’s defense is one that could be historically elite by the end of the season.

But what about Kentucky’s? If you’re like me, you probably attributed the Wildcats’ six interceptions against Mississippi State last week to some combination of luck and a sputtering Mike Leach Air Raid. However, Kentucky is currently second in the nation in passes intercepted and tied for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns.

It’s possible that that result has more to do with Kentucky’s opponents than it does with Kentucky — Arkansas is first in interceptions and tied with Kentucky for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns, and both Arkansas and Kentucky have played Mississippi State — but then again, maybe the Wildcats are just ballhawks.

Whatever the case, giving the ball to the other team has to stop. Right now.

Shockingly, we didn’t win the gold

Oddly enough, it wasn’t just Tennessee that had problems with turnovers or pick sixes yesterday. At one point during the day, I heard an SEC announcer say that there had been six pick sixes on the day. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral threw six interceptions against Arkansas, including two pick sixes. (Also odd: He was never replaced despite Ole Miss having a capable second-stringer.)

I don’t know whether there ended up being more than six pick sixes yesterday, but even six is a lot. And Tennessee had two of them. On back-to-back possessions. Sandwiched by a fumble and another interception. On the heels of a flurry of turnovers in the prior game that also included a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Turnovers may be epidemic, but the Vols are sicker than most with the possible exception of Ole Miss.

There were other problems as well

Turnovers played the lead in yesterday’s tragedy, but there were several other villains at work in supporting roles as well. While Kentucky had only one ten-yard penalty, the Vols had six for 63 yards.

Field position was also a problem. Here are the starting positions for Tennessee:

• TN 31
• KY 45
• TN 19
• TN 25
• TN 25
• TN 23
• TN 21
• TN 16
• TN 25
• TN 28

Meanwhile, here are the starting positions for Kentucky:

• KY 25
• KY 20
• KY 27 (after fumble)
• (Pick six)
• (Pick six)
• TN 37 (after interception)
• KY 25
• KY 36
• KY 24
• TN 40
• KY 46
• KY 10

Tennessee’s best starting field position was barely over midfield, and it happened only once. Everything else was basically 75 yards from the end zone.

On the other side, Kentucky had two possessions with a starting field position of zero (because its defense scored), two more on Tennesee’s side of the field, and another almost to midfield. Much of that advantage was a direct result of the turnovers, of course, but the Wildcats also had a significant advantage in the punting game, as Max Duffy had a solid average of 46.7 yards per punt while Paxton Brooks averaged only 37.8 on five punts. That’s basically another 40-50 yard advantage in the punting game.

Progress is not a straight line

If there is a silver lining to yesterday and the second half of the Georgia game, it’s this: As Will reminded us after the Georgia game, progress is not a straight line. I don’t know about you, but I fell prey to believing otherwise. I let myself think that because the Vols took care of business against the second tier of the SEC East last year, we were past that nonsense. I focused only on the next step, which was to start knocking off Georgia, Florida, and Alabama every once in a while.

But we can’t just pass a milestone and cross it off the list. This is a ongoing race, not a checklist, and you can’t just chase after your target without also watching your back.

The upside of progress not being a straight line is that sometimes surprising jumps in progress can follow directly on the heels of regression. We saw that play out in 2019. Let’s see what happens in the remainder of 2020.