Gameday on Rocky Top

When the 2020 schedule was originally announced, having Georgia near the end was a sigh of relief. Tennessee’s schedule is traditionally so front-loaded, there are few opportunities for meaningful wins in November. And when the schedule was adapted in the pandemic, the Dawgs and Gators essentially switched places, but the impact was the same: something to look forward to, a chance to stay in the hunt in the SEC East, and an ability for the story of your season to get told in its final weeks. Even if you leave the Georgia and Alabama results the same, had the Vols beaten Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn, they’d be playing Florida for a chance to create a three-way tie for first place in the SEC East tomorrow.

It’s not that Tennessee would’ve been favored to beat the Gators, or the front-runner for Atlanta even if they did, a scenario that would still require the Vols to beat Texas A&M and Georgia to lose to Missouri. But the feel of all of this, even in a strange year, would be so very different and mean so very much.

The idea of beating Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn, even now, feels almost close enough to touch. But what we’ve grasped instead are catastrophic mistakes and inefficient football, leading to five straight losses by double digits, the worst of all firsts this year. And now the Gators, who have felt like the most attainable win among our three biggest rivals for the last four seasons, can feel out of reach.

Florida remains a 17.5-point favorite. In the thirty years we’ve now been playing this rivalry on an annual basis, it is the second-biggest line the Vols have faced in this game, topped only by the, “Is Urban Meyer going to attempt murder on Lane Kiffin?” +30 Tennessee saw in 2009. In happier Decembers, the next one on the list is still the +16.5 the Vols closed at in 2001. That game never feels like the answer to this question because that line was always so ridiculous, but +16.5 is, by Vegas, the biggest upset the Vols have pulled off in at least the last 35 years. That’s the fun part. It’s also the hard part: if you want to entertain idiot optimism for tomorrow, the line holding at +17.5 would require the biggest upset of our generation.

In their first year, Derek Dooley and Butch Jones faced Florida teams coming off Sugar Bowl appearances. Both of those Gators squads would struggle, but we didn’t know that in September and didn’t know anything about the Vols in year one, so Tennessee was understandably +15.5 in 2013 and +13.5 in 2010. But next on the list is 2019, when the Vols closed at +12.5 (all historical lines via covers.com). That means Tennessee has faced two of its six worst odds against the Gators in the last 30 years back-to-back:

Vols Biggest Underdogs vs Florida 1990-2020

1. 2009 +30
2. 2020 +17.5
3. 2001 +16.5
4. 2013 +15.5
5. 2010 +13.5
6. 2019 +12.5

And in the last two years, the Vols have earned two of their worst defeats against the Gators in that same span:

Vols Biggest Losses vs Florida 1990-2020

1. 2007 Florida 59 Tennessee 20
2. 1994 Florida 31 Tennessee 0 (tie goes to the shutout)
3. 2019 Florida 34 Tennessee 3
4. 2018 Florida 47 Tennessee 21

In 2007, the Vols actually trailed just 28-20 and had the ball with five minutes to play in the third quarter. A fumbled exchange between Erik Ainge and Arian Foster was returned for a touchdown, and the floodgates ensued. That Florida team had the Heisman winner, a similarity we may find on Saturday. But that Tennessee team still won the SEC East.

In 1994, the Vols have the should’ve-been-eventual Heisman winner, but he was just a freshman and wasn’t thrown to these particular wolves. Instead, Todd Helton ate a shutout in a Knoxville downpour to #1 Florida.

You can find some similar forgiveness in the 2018 game, where the Vols didn’t punt or score a touchdown on their first ten possessions, still one of the strangest sequences in a dozen years of strange around here. The Vols still almost outgained the Gators, continuing a seven year trend in this rivalry from 2012-18 of Tennessee shooting all its toes off. But whatever perception is worth, Jeremy Pruitt’s first Vols were only +3.5 to Dan Mullen’s first Gators.

Last year, the Vols were still quite good at shooting themselves. Tennessee threw an interception in the end zone after a short field in a 7-0 game, then threw another after stopping Florida on fourth down. They allowed Florida to convert a 2nd-and-17 with two minutes left in the first half to push the game to three possessions. And Brian Maurer promptly turned it over on the third play of the third quarter. But the final tally was far more telling: Florida outgained the Vols 441 to 239, and won by 31.

If we get another one of those games tomorrow – Gators by four possessions for the third year in a row – it could simplify the conversation about Tennessee’s future. There’s always math to be done in recruiting and finances, both made fuzzier by the pandemic. But, already at a significant disadvantage against the Tide and Dawgs, if the Vols are blown out by Florida again – if this rivalry also begins to feel out of reach on an annual basis – that would certainly be included in the equation of Tennessee’s future.

But perhaps the conversation could be simplified in another direction.

We know midseason replacement quarterbacks at Tennessee tend to struggle in their first start. That is indeed what it seems Harrison Bailey will get against the Gators. But if Bailey can provide a real spark offensively – setting aside what Tennessee’s defense may or may not be able to do against the Kyles – the conversation about Tennessee’s future could be simplified as well: “Let’s see what this kid can do.”

It’s worth noting, to me, that if Jarrett Guarantano takes a snap in Tennessee’s last three games (or three of four should the Vols actually find their way to a bowl), he’ll trail only Peyton Manning and Casey Clausen in total appearances by a quarterback at Tennessee in my lifetime (data via sports-reference.com; shout out to Andy Kelly who is technically higher on the appearance list thanks to his work as a pooch punter early in his career).

Guarantano has seen action as Tennessee’s quarterback on 41 different occasions. There is no one really to compare him to, so unique has his time been for so long, and so frustrating Tennessee’s inability to get better both through and around him. I have no doubt that he’s taken more hits than any Tennessee quarterback, ever. He deserves, truly, our gratitude for that.

If he takes a snap in three more games – Bailey could get hurt on the first play, who knows – the guy he’ll pass for third place on the QB appearance list is Erik Ainge. Sixteen years ago, Erik Ainge was a true freshman who didn’t get spring practice. He and fellow freshman Brent Schaeffer helped the Vols beat UNLV in the opener, then got the Gators.

Schaeffer started and went 3-for-4 for 40 yards, plus 38 yards on seven carries. Ainge finished with 16-of-24 for 192 yards, an interception, and three touchdowns. And the Vols won, in memorable fashion.

In the UNLV recap at ESPN.com, there’s a note I’d forgotten: Schaeffer was the first true freshman quarterback to start in the SEC since 1945. 2004 can feel as far from 1945 as 2020 feels from 2004, both for freshman quarterbacks and for Tennessee. The Vols were actually the favorite against Florida in 2004 at -3, so the expectation is certainly different for Harrison Bailey. But an opportunity to simplify the conversation in a positive direction makes tomorrow afternoon meaningful, for him and the Vols. It’s certainly not the kind of meaning we were looking for at the start of the season. But it has a chance to be a truly important Saturday either way.

Tennessee opened as a 17-point underdog to Florida this week, and the line has since moved to 17.5. The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks that’s not high enough. Here’s why.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20.1
• Florida’s Scoring Offense this year: 43.4
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.3
• Florida’s Scoring Defense this year: 25.9

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Florida scoring defense of 25.9 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Missouri 25
• Auburn 24.5

Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 17 points against Auburn, which is 105% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Florida 27.2.

The Florida scoring offense of 43.4 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Alabama 48.5
• Georgia 31.3

Tennessee allowed 48 points to Alabama and 44 points to Georgia. That’s 115% of what those teams usually get, which makes the estimated points for Florida against Tennessee 49.9.

Estimated score: Tennessee 27.2, Florida 49.9

From the perspective of Florida

The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.3 is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s):

• Arkansas 30.9
• Kentucky 27.3

Florida scored 63 points against Arkansas and 34 points against Kentucky, 167% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Florida against Tennessee 52.2.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 20.1 is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s):

• Kentucky 19.6
• South Carolina 24.1

Florida allowed Kentucky 10 points and South Carolina 24. That’s 78% of what those teams usually get, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Florida 15.7.

Estimated score: Florida 52.2, Tennessee 15.7

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 21.5, Florida 51.1

SPM Final estimated spread: Florida -29.6

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.6

Bad news, Vols fans. That puts this game squarely in the Machine’s sweet spot and makes it a Category 3 contest in favor of the Gators.

Eyeball adjustments

Man, that feels high though, doesn’t it? But none of the actual numbers look suspect to me. If I run the Machine with every 2020 game as a comp, it gets only marginally better: Florida 46.5, Tennessee 19.8, a spread of -26.7.

I am so looking forward to the day I can bring you good news, but today, I’m going with the Machine, although I am taking the “all comps” result: Florida 47, Tennessee 20. Even with that, it’s waaaaaay above the line. Tennessee can win this game, but if it does, it’s going to have to be a different team Saturday than it’s been all season.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols a 17-point underdog and an over/under of 61.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Florida 39, Tennessee 22.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Florida by 18.1 (Florida 38, Tennessee 20) and gives the Vols a 15% chance of winning. More bad news, Vols fans: SP+ agreeing elevates this game from Category 3 to Category 4, a subset of games for which the Machine is currently 11-1. Cue the so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance GIF.

Bottom line

I’m just going to repeat what I said for the Auburn preview:

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine doesn’t know it’s a Vols fan, so it has no emotion about being so confident of another disappointing Saturday for the good guys. I am a sentient being with mostly orange and smokey grey laundry, and so I am able to come to roughly the same conclusion and yet hope we are both wrong, wrong, wrong.

• Vegas: Florida 39, Tennessee 22 (Florida -17)
• SP+: Florida 38, Tennessee 20 (Florida covers at -18.1)
• GRT’s Statsy Preview Machine: Florida 51.1, Tennessee 21.5 (Florida covers at -29.6)
• Me: Florida 47, Tennessee 20 (Florida covers at -27)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
• Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
• Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.
• Week 12: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Auburn would cover the 11.5-point spread. Auburn won by 13, 30-17.

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 6 Florida Gators at 3:30 on CBS this Saturday, and with football and basketball both playing at the same time and scrambling to schedule games, there’s a lot to look at this week starting with some hoops action tonight.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is toward the bottom of the post, but first we have a football schedule curated just for Vols fans and a bonus curated hoops schedule.

Thursday, December 3, 2020 – Friday, December 4, 2020

Appetizers. Don’t ruin your meal.

Gameday, December 5 (and 6), 2020

Your Saturday presents some dilemmas if you love football and basketball equally. The noon slot provides an opportunity to get a last look at Tennessee’s next opponent in Texas A&M as the No. 5 Aggies go up against former Vols’ opponent Auburn. BUT, that game goes up against a No. 1 vs No. 2 hoops matchup on ESPN at 1:00 when Gonzaga takes on Baylor (see the curated hoops schedule below). This is why DVRs were made.

The Vols then kick off against No. 6 Florida at 3:30 on CBS and are followed up by No. 1 Alabama at LSU at 8:00.

Sunday is full as well, as there’s another Top 20 hoops matchup between Villanova and Texas at 1:00, SEC East hoops rival Kentucky against Georgia Tech at 5:00, and another football game at 7:30 on FS1.

Bonus hoops schedule for the weekend

The Vols’ basketball team is still paused, but there are several games of interest this week:

Full searchable college football TV schedule

And here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Last year when Brian Maurer got his first career start against Georgia, we ran the numbers on Tennessee’s midseason replacement quarterbacks in their first start. These are the guys that, for reasons good and bad, didn’t win the job in fall camp, but took over at some point during the season.

It’s interesting how many quarterbacks get their first start this way, whether that’s through injury, youth movement, or just poor play from the incumbent. In the last 30 years, I believe only Heath Shuler, Jerry Colquitt, Tee Martin, Joey Mathews, Brent Schaeffer, Matt Simms, and Quinten Dormady made their first start at Tennessee in a season opener.

When you go to the backup mid-year, it typically means some other things are going wrong too, and your starter can’t just manage the game and still win. And at Tennessee, there certainly isn’t an abundance of great football in the last decade-plus. But one thing we noted in the piece last year already changed with Maurer: the first starts for Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley produced zero offensive touchdowns. Maurer came out firing with a pair of touchdown passes in the first half, and the Vols were still in that game late in the third quarter. Georgia led 29-14 but the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield when Maurer threw an interception; Tennessee actually stopped Georgia on 4th-and-1 on the next drive, giving the Vols another first down at midfield. But a false start and a sack ended that threat, and Georgia added two scores in the fourth quarter.

So: you can be feisty with the new guy against elite competition, and Jim Chaney was of course at the trigger for that game. Victory, of course, is much harder to come by:

(If the table looks strange, rotate your phone)

Midseason Replacement QBs, First Start:

If it’s indeed Harrison Bailey on Saturday, he certainly won’t be the first Vol QB to get his first action against a Top 10 foe. And perhaps the up-tempo nature of the game in 2020 will give him additional opportunities to flourish. But victory – unless you’re playing our in-state friends from Nashville or Memphis – is a big ask.

Some of these guys obviously went on to excellent careers. Erik Ainge and Josh Dobbs, in particular, overcame some frustrating freshman performances to be two of the best we’ve seen at the position in Knoxville. So don’t judge Bailey too much on the first impression, especially when it comes in the middle of the year.

(…unless he’s great. Then lean all the way into it.)

Against the Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 23-20 (53.49%) overall, 7-5 (58.33%) in Category 2, and 4-3 (57.14%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 212-192 (52.48%) in Category 1, 80-69 (53.69%) in Category 2, and 40-33 (54.79%) in Category 3. Of the seven “Category 4” games, four were canceled or postponed. The others went 2-1 (66.67%), making the results for the four weeks we’ve been tracking them 11-1 (91.67%).

Using the same spreads as SP+, the Machine was 21-21 (50%) overall for the week.

SP+ went 18-26 (41%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 209-192-6 (52.1%). Against our spreads, though, it was much better, going 22-21 (51.16%) for the week and currently sitting at 226-178 (55.94%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 14 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 14 Picks

For the second week in a row, there are a ton of Category 3 games that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well, although most of last week’s didn’t make it to the finish line. Of this week’s Category 3 games, seven make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:

• Houston at SMU (SMU -.5)
• Hawai’i at San Jose State (San Jose State -6.5)
• Tulsa at Navy (Tulsa -9.5)
• Washington State at USC (Washington State +13.5)
• Toledo at Northern Illinois (Toledo -10.5)
• Texas at Kansas State (Texas -7.5)
• Florida at Tennessee (Florida -17)

The head-to-head stat rankings suggest that Saturday could be a long day for both the Tennessee offense and the Tennessee defense. The overall game plan should probably be to slow the game down to hopefully shorten it and make it more of a low-scoring contest.

The offense needs to make the most of first downs (its one legit advantage) and should probably focus on the run game to both eat the clock and avoid interceptions.

The defense should help slow the game down by making Florida take as much time as possible to score. You don’t want to play prevent all game long, but you do want to make sure the Gators don’t score quickly by getting behind you. If you shorten the game and thereby limit the scoring, you’re more likely to be within striking distance late.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

First down. A mediocre Gators’ defense appears to have an advantage over a struggling Vols’ offense everywhere except on first down, where Tennessee has a slight edge.

Where’s the danger?

While the Gators’ defense is generally better than the Vols’ offense in nearly every aspect, there’s a HUGE disparity in red zone success and scoring in general. There’s also great danger for the Vols on third downs and in throwing interceptions. Frankly, it just looks like a long day for the Tennessee offense unless they’ve figured something out over the past few weeks.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Make the most of first downs. Run the ball, both because you can’t throw an interception that way and because it slows down the game. Hope for some luck in the form of turnovers along the way.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The Gators are a passing team and not especially good running the ball. As good as their passing attack is, they do have a tendency to throw some interceptions.

Where’s the danger?

If they don’t throw interceptions, the Gators are lethal through the air and on third downs against good defenses, and the numbers suggest it will be especially easy for them against a Vols’ defense struggling against the pass.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Keep everything in front of you. Yards in front of you are better than yards behind you. Give them short yardage and make the journey to the end zone a long one with plenty of stops.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols could make something of what appears to be an opportunity in the return game. Both teams have good punters, although Florida probably doesn’t use theirs nearly as often.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

This looks like both teams are equally likely to give the ball away, but Florida is more likely to take the ball from its opponents.

The Vols’ game against Vanderbilt this week got bumped in favor of a last ditch effort to get Missouri a full slate of 10 games, so the Vols are off yet again. But there’s still a lot to watch, including the Iron Bowl Saturday afternoon.

Here’s the GRT college football TV schedule for the week, first curated just for Vols fans and with the full searchable schedule for the entire week following at the bottom of the post.

Thursday, November 26, 2020 – Friday, November 27, 2020

I don’t know whether you really want to watch New Mexico vs Utah State Thanksgiving night, but you’ll probably be sitting in a chair digesting anyway, so you might as well look at something.

Friday starts getting interesting, though, with a Top 20 Big 12 matchup between No. 13 Iowa State and No. 17 Texas at noon and a Top 20 ACC matchup between No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 19 North Carolina at 3:30, both on ABC.

Gameday, November 28, 2020

Saturday kicks off with the game that should have been ours this week — Missouri-Vanderbilt, at noon on the SEC Network — along with a look at what is (probably?) our next opponent in No. 6 Florida, as the Gators host Kentucky at noon on ESPN.

And then comes the Iron Bowl at 3:30 on CBS. Alabama should roll in this one, but you never know in a rivalry game, especially this one.

The evening slot features a couple of SEC games of interest to Vols fans, with LSU-Texas A&M and Georgia-South Carolina.

Bonus hoops schedule for the weekend

The Vols’ basketball team also canceled its first four games, so there’s no orange hoops to watch this weekend, either. But there are some other interesting games. I’m wary of attempting to keep tabs on what will likely be a constantly-changing college basketball schedule, but here is a list of games that Vols fans might find interesting this weekend:

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week: