| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads | SP+ spreads | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Week 12 | 18-23 (43.90%) | 5-7 (41.67%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 20-21 (48.78%) |
| Week 13 | 23-20 (53.49%) | 7-5 (58.33%) | 4-3 (57.14%) | 21-21 (50%) |
| Season | 212-192 (52.48%) | 80-69 (53.69%) | 40-33 (54.79%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Week 12 | 23-18 (56.10%) | 25-16 (61%) | ||
| Week 13 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 18-26 (41%) | ||
| Season | 226-178 (55.94%) | 209-192-6 (52.1%) |
Against the Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 23-20 (53.49%) overall, 7-5 (58.33%) in Category 2, and 4-3 (57.14%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 212-192 (52.48%) in Category 1, 80-69 (53.69%) in Category 2, and 40-33 (54.79%) in Category 3. Of the seven “Category 4” games, four were canceled or postponed. The others went 2-1 (66.67%), making the results for the four weeks we’ve been tracking them 11-1 (91.67%).
Using the same spreads as SP+, the Machine was 21-21 (50%) overall for the week.
SP+ went 18-26 (41%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 209-192-6 (52.1%). Against our spreads, though, it was much better, going 22-21 (51.16%) for the week and currently sitting at 226-178 (55.94%) for the season.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 14 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 14 Picks
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | Ohio | Buffalo | -9.5 | Buffalo | -9.6 | Covers |
| Florida State | Duke | Duke | -3 | Duke | -2.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Wyoming | New Mexico | Wyoming | -16 | Wyoming | -16.2 | Covers |
| Clemson | Virginia Tech | Clemson | -21.5 | Clemson | -21.9 | Covers |
| Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | Western Michigan | -14 | Western Michigan | -13.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Indiana | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -10 | Wisconsin | -9.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Boston College | Virginia | Virginia | -7 | Virginia | -6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -21.5 | Oklahoma | -23.1 | Covers |
| Fresno State | Nevada | Nevada | -7 | Nevada | -4.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Vanderbilt | Georgia | Georgia | -33.5 | Georgia | -31.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Ball State | Central Michigan | Central Michigan | -3 | Central Michigan | -5.2 | Covers |
| South Carolina | Kentucky | Kentucky | -11 | Kentucky | -8.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| West Virginia | Iowa State | Iowa State | -6.5 | Iowa State | -3.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Iowa | Illinois | Iowa | -13 | Iowa | -16 | Covers |
| Florida International | Charlotte | Charlotte | -7.5 | Charlotte | -10.6 | Covers |
| Oregon | California | Oregon | -11 | Oregon | -14.2 | Covers |
| Kent State | Miami (Ohio) | Kent State | -2 | Miami (Ohio) | -1.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Liberty | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -6 | Coastal Carolina | -9.5 | Covers |
| Colorado State | San Diego State | San Diego State | -9.5 | San Diego State | -13.2 | Covers |
| Boise State | UNLV | Boise State | -26 | Boise State | -30 | Covers |
| Nebraska | Purdue | Purdue | -2 | Purdue | -6 | Covers |
| Troy | South Alabama | Troy | -1.5 | Troy | -5.5 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -20.5 | Arkansas State | -25 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Appalachian State | Appalachian State | -3.5 | Appalachian State | -8.1 | Covers |
| Arkansas | Missouri | Missouri | -3 | Arkansas | -2.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Memphis | Tulane | Tulane | -2 | Memphis | -3.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Oklahoma State | TCU | Oklahoma State | -1.5 | Oklahoma State | -7.2 | Covers |
| Stanford | Washington | Washington | -10.5 | Washington | -3.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas A&M | Auburn | Texas A&M | -3.5 | Texas A&M | -10.7 | Covers |
| Alabama | LSU | Alabama | -28 | Alabama | -35.7 | Covers |
| Western Carolina | North Carolina | North Carolina | -45.5 | North Carolina | -53.9 | Covers |
| Bowling Green | Akron | Akron | -2 | Akron | -10.6 | Covers |
| Maryland | Michigan | Michigan | -6 | Maryland | -2.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Ohio State | Michigan State | Ohio State | -23.5 | Ohio State | -32.4 | Covers |
| Florida Atlantic | Georgia Southern | Florida Atlantic | 0 | Florida Atlantic | -9 | Covers |
| Houston | SMU | SMU | -0.5 | SMU | -9.7 | Covers |
| Louisiana Tech | North Texas | Louisiana Tech | -3.5 | Louisiana Tech | -12.8 | Covers |
| Rice | Marshall | Marshall | -23.5 | Marshall | -13.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Tech | North Carolina State | North Carolina State | -8.5 | North Carolina State | -18.7 | Covers |
| Hawai'i | San Jose State | San Jose State | -6.5 | San Jose State | -16.7 | Covers |
| Tulsa | Navy | Tulsa | -9.5 | Tulsa | -19.7 | Covers |
| Kansas | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | -27.5 | Texas Tech | -37.9 | Covers |
| Washington State | USC | USC | -13.5 | USC | -2.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Toledo | Northern Illinois | Toledo | -10.5 | Toledo | -22.1 | Covers |
| Texas | Kansas State | Texas | -7.5 | Texas | -19.5 | Covers |
| Florida | Tennessee | Florida | -17 | Florida | -29.6 | Covers |
| Oregon State | Utah | Utah | -7.5 | Oregon State | -7.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Syracuse | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -33.5 | Notre Dame | -17.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Penn State | Rutgers | Penn State | -9 | Rutgers | -7.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Colorado | Arizona | Colorado | -3.5 | Colorado | -20.5 | Covers |
| Air Force | Utah State | Air Force | -10.5 | Air Force | -29 | Covers |
| UCLA | Arizona State | Arizona State | -6 | UCLA | -13.2 | Doesn't cover |
For the second week in a row, there are a ton of Category 3 games that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well, although most of last week’s didn’t make it to the finish line. Of this week’s Category 3 games, seven make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:
- Houston at SMU (SMU -.5)
- Hawai’i at San Jose State (San Jose State -6.5)
- Tulsa at Navy (Tulsa -9.5)
- Washington State at USC (Washington State +13.5)
- Toledo at Northern Illinois (Toledo -10.5)
- Texas at Kansas State (Texas -7.5)
- Florida at Tennessee (Florida -17)
Results for those Cat 4 games: Houston at SMU (SMU -.5) (postponed) Hawai’i at San Jose State (San Jose State -6.5) (see below) Tulsa at Navy (Tulsa -9.5) (right) Washington State at USC (Washington State +13.5) (wrong) Toledo at Northern Illinois (Toledo -10.5) (right) Texas at Kansas State (Texas -7.5) (right) Florida at Tennessee (Florida -17) (wrong) On the Hawai’i-San Jose State game, I had the SP+ spread calculated incorrectly because I had the home and away teams flipped. When corrected, it was no longer in agreement with our machine, so I’m excluding this game from the Cat 4 results.… Read more »