Team Talent: The Gap and The Window

For two weeks, we’ve talked about the question of “closing the gap.” What’s the best way to measure that? When it comes on the heels of another big loss to Alabama, the answer is talent.

There are plenty of options – recruiting rankings, draft picks, etc. – but let’s take a look at actual talent on the roster. For that, we turn to the team talent rankings at 247 Sports. I like these not only for giving a look at the entire roster, but because they include transfers and, obviously, don’t count those leaving early for the NFL, which can give a boost to recruiting rankings a year too long.

In team talent, you’ll find a common theme from recruiting: the Vols are 15th in the nation in talent…and seventh in the SEC. But far more important than the ranking is the rating: it’s not just who’s ahead of you, but how far. And looking at the six available years of team talent data tells us quite a bit about the hopes for Tennessee’s past, present, and future.

We use blue chip ratio a lot in recruiting: the percentage of four-and-five-stars per class, noting that national champions always hit 50+%. That’s a number, as you’ll see, the Vols flirt with quite often, and heavily so in Jeremy Pruitt’s classes. But when you’re seventh in the SEC in talent, the conversation for Tennessee can’t just be about getting to 50%.

I used the team talent rankings to calculate a blue chip ratio for the entire roster (the percentage of four-and-five-stars on your roster to three-four-and-five stars). Here’s where Tennessee stands over the last six years:

(If the tables look weird, turn your phone sideways)

Tennessee Roster Blue Chip Ratio

201520162017201820192020
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%

This makes sense: the Vols had their best teams in 2015 and 2016, infused with the talent from Butch Jones’ 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes. But it dropped off sharply in 2017, even before all the losses, in part due to signing only five blue chip players that February.

Jeremy Pruitt’s first three teams have featured almost identical levels of talent, but right now it skews much younger. Of Tennessee’s 22 seniors, including that 2017 recruiting class, only seven were blue chip recruits: Jordan Allen, Ty Chandler, Jarrett Guarantano, Brandon Kennedy, Trey Smith, Aubrey Solomon, and Savion Williams. The entire calculation will change given the eligibility rules for this season, but in a normal year the Vols would trade off those graduating with the incoming 2021 recruiting class, which currently features 12 blue chip commits and 14 three-stars. If the current class stayed exactly the same, it would give Tennessee a team talent blue chip ratio of 46.1% for next season, the Vols’ best since 2015-16.

So yes, overall it’s going in the right direction and gaps are being closed; next season the Vols should have an overall blue chip level comparable to the best we’ve seen in the post-Fulmer era.

Here’s the problem:

How big is the window of opportunity?

201520162017201820192020
Georgia51.90%52.50%63.50%72.70%70.20%78.80%
Florida36.80%32.40%35.40%44.90%52.70%58.50%
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%

The Vols are getting closer to the window. But getting through it will be much more difficult now.

In 2015-16, not only were the Vols stocked with both talent and experience to make a move, but Florida and Georgia were unstable. 2015 was Mark Richt’s last year and Jim McElwain’s first, with the Gators in particular low on talent from the end of the Will Muschamp era. McElwain won two division titles but did nothing to change that. Meanwhile Georgia, already a consistent player in the 50+% blue chip ratio game, significantly upped the ante under Kirby Smart.

You can throw out those Richt vs Smart graphics all you want through their first however many games. But the Georgia teams Tennessee is trying to beat right now are way, way more talented than the Richt teams we saw at the end of his tenure.

And Florida is trending that direction as well.

For all of Tennessee’s strengths, some of its greatest weaknesses post-peak have involved bad timing, whether self-inflicted or otherwise. When Florida and Georgia have been vulnerable, the Vols have failed to capitalize:

  • 2002: The Vols beat Spurrier in his last game in The Swamp in December 2001 with everything on the line, fumbled it away in Atlanta, but still entered 2002 with Ron Zook at Florida and Mark Richt in year two in Athens. I was a 21-year-old college student, so what did I know then, but as good as the Vols were when I was growing up from 1989-2001, holding the best winning percentage of any SEC team in that run…in 2002 I thought we were getting ready to ascend, specifically because the Gators would be down. Instead, the Vols fumbled 87 times in the rain against Florida, were devastated by injuries, and finished 8-5. Tennessee still tied for the SEC East in 2003 and won it in 2004, but there was no step forward overall. Then…
  • 2005: With Urban Meyer in year one at Florida and that read option stuff never going to work in the SEC, Tennessee was ranked third in the preseason AP poll. Florida was 10th. Georgia was 13th. Instead, the Vols mismanaged the quarterback situation and hurt themselves, not unlike this season, with turnovers at the worst possible times. Tennessee went 5-6, and though they rebounded again in 2006 and won the SEC East in 2007, again, no step forward.
  • 2010: By far, the low point for the SEC East: Urban Meyer’s last year at Florida saw the Gators go 8-5, Georgia started 1-4 and finished 6-7, and South Carolina won the SEC East for the first and only time at 5-3 in league play. But the Vols were in year one of Derek Dooley. Whoever else you wanted to hire in January 2010, I’m not sure they do any better in year one, and if Kiffin doesn’t leave, maybe we’re on probation later. So more than anything, this one just feels like bad luck, unless of course you’d like to take it back to the, “What if Fulmer doesn’t hire Dave Clawson?” conversation two years before.

And of course, there’s 2015-16. Though the Vols went 3-1 against Florida and Georgia those two years, the damage was done in failing to make the necessary progress overall. Tennessee closed the gap entirely, but getting to 9-4 twice was never going to be enough to get through the window. Tennessee’s recruiting under Butch Jones fell off before he was fired for losing games. The losses to Oklahoma and Florida in 2015 remain the most consequential outcomes for Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era: the Vols built momentum and talent, but in failing to sustain the one lost the other. Florida and Georgia were vulnerable, but the Vols didn’t get to Atlanta, didn’t get through the window even though it was wide open, and will find it much more difficult now. In all those moments of opportunity in the last 18 years, rarely have Florida and Georgia had stability and excellence at head coach the way they do now under Dan Mullen and Kirby Smart. I’ll give you Richt and Meyer from 2006-08, but Georgia went 8-5 in 2009.

And here’s the thing: Tennessee still won the SEC East in 2007! We used to talk about “win the SEC East every three years” like it was settling, as if Florida and/or Georgia was always going to struggle. But when the Dawgs and Gators have it together – and they do now – Tennessee is doing a good job just to get in the fight. Georgia still has the talent advantage on both, certainly. But the Vols were two-touchdown underdogs in Athens last month. Florida is +3.5 on Saturday.

Comparison is the thief of joy and a three-touchdown favorite

Of course, here’s our other problem, unique to us in the SEC East:

201520162017201820192020
Alabama77.70%75.30%84.50%77.70%84.50%84.30%
Georgia51.90%52.50%63.50%72.70%70.20%78.80%
Florida36.80%32.40%35.40%44.90%52.70%58.50%
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%

Gross.

In the first three of those missed opportunity years for Tennessee, Alabama was also unstable: Dennis Franchione left a mess after 2002, Mike Shula was doing what we called a good job at the time in 2005, and in 2010 Alabama wasn’t the monster we know and love just yet, 10-3 with a loss to South Carolina.

By 2015-16 Alabama was the Bama we know and hate, though the Vols had a shot in 2015. But also by then we weren’t measuring success only by the pursuit of national championships ourselves. That’s certainly still true today. So yeah, it’s going to be hard for Tennessee to get to Atlanta when the Vols play Alabama every year and Florida and Georgia don’t. But even if the schedule changed, Tennessee has to close the gap in its own division at a time when the window of opportunity to beat Florida and Georgia is tighter than it’s been at any point in the last decade.

So yes, we shouldn’t be worried about trying to catch Bama right now, unless you’d like to be a crazy person. But here’s one thing that may surprise you: from Saban’s year two in 2008 to the present, Alabama only wins the SEC West 58% of the time. Tennessee shouldn’t worry about being Alabama, but it would certainly be nice to be Auburn or LSU.

But…

201520162017201820192020
Alabama77.70%75.30%84.50%77.70%84.50%84.30%
Georgia51.90%52.50%63.50%72.70%70.20%78.80%
LSU66.70%69.20%63.40%64.10%61.40%61.30%
Florida36.80%32.40%35.40%44.90%52.70%58.50%
Auburn57.10%58.90%60%56.40%58.20%57.30%
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%

To get there, the Vols need to start thinking of recruiting success as not just hitting 50% in blue chip ratio, but 60%. To get there, the Vols are going to have to win more games. Chickens, eggs, etc.

It’s also been true for Auburn and LSU that, to beat Alabama to Atlanta, you either need a Heisman quarterback (Cam Newton, Joe Burrow), extreme weirdness (four missed field goals, Kick Six), or whatever happened in the Iron Bowl in 2017…when Alabama still won the national championship, same as in 2011.

We often think of the SEC as these six traditional powers. But the program that’s actually been the best comparison to Tennessee these last six years is…

201520162017201820192020
Alabama77.70%75.30%84.50%77.70%84.50%84.30%
Georgia51.90%52.50%63.50%72.70%70.20%78.80%
LSU66.70%69.20%63.40%64.10%61.40%61.30%
Florida36.80%32.40%35.40%44.90%52.70%58.50%
Auburn57.10%58.90%60%56.40%58.20%57.30%
Texas A&M53.50%50.90%41%41.20%50.60%53.20%
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%

What’s life been like for a Texas A&M fan?

You’ll note that Kevin Sumlin and Jimbo Fisher aren’t recruiting much differently from each other. Sumlin went 11-2 with a Heisman quarterback in 2012. They went 9-4 with seven point losses to two top five teams the next year, Johnny Football’s last. After that, as you know: three straight 8-5’s, followed by a 7-5 and a coaching change. Jimbo’s first two years: 9-4, 8-5.

Without the Heisman quarterback, Texas A&M is 2-4 against Auburn, 1-5 against LSU, and winless against Alabama.

Le’ts give Sumlin a pass on losing close games to the great teams from the state of Mississippi in 2014. But in addition to struggles against traditional powers, they also lost to #24 Ole Miss and Louisville in 2015, to unranked teams from the Magnolia State and Kansas State in 2016, and famously blew an enormous lead to UCLA to open the 2017 season before losing to Dan Mullen’s unranked Bulldogs again.

This is the plight of A&M under Sumlin without the Heisman QB: it’s not just about not catching Alabama, it’s 3-9 against Auburn and LSU…and also not being good/talented enough to create comfortable separation from the rest of the league.

Now, perhaps Jimbo is good enough to make up that difference; we’re about to find out. The Aggies lost a close game to Georgia last season, and just beat the Gators last month. Of his ten losses at A&M, only one – at Mississippi State in 2018 – was to an unranked, non-traditional power. And, of course, eight of the others were to Top 10 teams. If Jimbo earns them real progress, A&M can make the leap – not to Bama, but to Auburn and LSU. And though they may go through the Vols next week to prove that point, overall it would be good news for the kind of argument Jeremy Pruitt is trying to build here too.

How much separation on the rest of the SEC in the present?

Here’s the entire league for reference:

201520162017201820192020
Alabama77.70%75.30%84.50%77.70%84.50%84.30%
Georgia51.90%52.50%63.50%72.70%70.20%78.80%
LSU66.70%69.20%63.40%64.10%61.40%61.30%
Florida36.80%32.40%35.40%44.90%52.70%58.50%
Auburn57.10%58.90%60%56.40%58.20%57.30%
Texas A&M53.50%50.90%41%41.20%50.60%53.20%
Tennessee47.20%49.30%39.50%43.80%43.40%42.40%
South Carolina31.40%30%25.70%32.90%31.60%33.80%
Arkansas23.30%24%26.20%20.50%25.30%25.60%
Kentucky17.20%15.10%20%18.20%18.90%23.80%
Ole Miss32.80%38.70%35.10%23.90%22.80%23.30%
Mississippi St20%18.30%21.90%27.80%27.20%22.90%
Missouri12.20%13.40%10%7.80%9.90%9.60%
Vanderbilt10.10%10.80%12.20%11.60%6.90%5.60%

So this is Tennessee at the present: the lowest team in the top half of the league, trying to gain ground while its three biggest rivals are on fire. But not so much better than most of the rest of the league – including Kentucky and Arkansas – to expect victory outright. As we’ve said, turn it over three straight drives and get two ran back for touchdowns, and Kentucky ain’t the only team in this league that will blow you out. And while it might be of comfort to see Vanderbilt back in the basement by themselves, Kentucky has increased its talent level in a way that suggests they’re not going back down there with them.

Tennessee is making progress, no doubt. The Vols are closing the gap. But when it comes to Tennessee’s biggest rivals, the window of opportunity is tighter than we’ve seen it in the last decade. So yes, we’re closer to the window. But right now, it’s going to be harder to squeeze through.

The best way to get there is to get better players, which is a path Tennessee is on. To do that, the Vols need to win games. Momentum is a real and dangerous thing with a long lifespan. And that, for a thousand reasons, makes this date with Arkansas of great importance. The Vols will get their chance to test themselves against teams that don’t have an 80% blue chip roster in the second half of this season. But before we can get to A&M, Auburn, and Florida, we need to get past Arkansas. Tennessee is making progress, but nothing will be easy…including tomorrow night.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2020 Week 10

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

How much time do the Vols spend on- and off-schedule?

You hear a lot about a team’s offense being on- or off-schedule. It’s a substitute metaphor for whether the team is behind or ahead of the chains. In other words, it’s a shorthand description of the odds the offense is going to be able to keep possession of the ball given the particular down-and-distance facing the offense at the time.

It’s easier for an offense to be successful when it is on-schedule. Conversely, one of the main symptoms of a struggling offense is being off-schedule too often.

With that in mind, I wanted to see just how often the Vols’ offense is off-schedule and how often it is on-schedule. Here’s what I found, using the following criteria:

  • On-schedule: First-and-10 or less, second-and-5 or less, third-and-3 or less;
  • Off-schedule: First-and-11 or more, second-and-6 or more, third-and-4 or more, fourth downs

The Vols’ offense has lined up 395 times so far this season. Of those plays, slightly more than half of them have been off-schedule or behind-the-chain plays where the offense is facing more than an optimal yards-to-gain to earn a first down.

At this point, I do not have data from any other teams with which to compare, so it’s unclear whether or just how bad this might be. I suspect it’s pretty bad.

And here’s why that 50/50 total plays on/off schedule chart is probably bad. Even bad teams get a ton of free first-and-10 on-schedule plays because every series starts with one.

This chart suggests that things are going off the rails for the Vols right out of the gate on first down. Only 24% of the Vols’ second downs were on-schedule, meaning 5 yards or less to go. Over 75% were 6 yards or more to go. The current average is second-and-8.

As you might expect, it doesn’t get much better on third down. Over five games, Tennessee’s offense has had only 20 on-schedule third down plays. On average, when the Vols get to third down, they’re facing third-and-7.

I’m currently recording any fourth down as being off-schedule, although I suppose there is an argument for fourth-and-1 being on-schedule. The Vols have had 10 of those. The average yards-to-gain on fourth down, though, is 8.

Conclusion

Again, I can’t say just how bad this is without comparing it to other teams, but it does seem clear that the Vols’ offense is having real problems right out of the gate on first down, averaging only 2 yards.

Tennessee-Arkansas, according to the GRT Statsy Preview Machine

Tennessee opened as a 1-point favoriate over Arkansas this week, and as of Friday morning, the line is currently Tennessee -2. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

Scoring offense and scoring defense for each team

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 22.2
Arkansas’s Scoring Offense this year: 24.6

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 33
Arkansas’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Arkansas scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • South Carolina 30
  • Missouri 33

Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 105% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 30.2.

The Arkansas scoring offense of 24.6 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Missouri 22.6
  • Kentucky 20.8

Tennessee allowed Kentucky 34 points but Missouri only 12. Combined, that’s 106% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 26.1.

Estimated score: Tennessee 30.2, Arkansas 26.1

From the perspective of Arkansas

The Tennessee scoring defense of 33 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Mississippi State 29.6
  • Texas A&M 29.4

Arkansas scored 21 points against Mississippi State but 31 points against Texas A&M. Combined, that’s 88% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Arkansas against Tennessee 29.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 22.2 is most similar to the following prior Arkansas opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Auburn 28.3
  • Georgia 29.2

Arkansas allowed Auburn 30 points and Georgia 37 points. Combined, that’s 116% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Arkansas 25.8.

Estimated score: Arkansas 29, Tennessee 25.8

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee, -.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: .5

That’s basically the equivalent of a shrug from the Statsy Preview Machine. It basically agrees with Vegas. If you’re going strictly by the numbers, it’s saying the Vols won’t cover a 1-point spread, but will still win. A push on a one-point game is a recipe for thrills or heartburn, depending on your palate.

Eyeball adjustments

Initially, I flagged the machine for using Missouri and Kentucky as scoring offense comps from Tennessee’s perspective because the Vols’ defensive results against those two teams were quite inconsistent. Kentucky scored a little less than double what it usually gets (due to a lot of defensive points hidden in the score), while Missouri scored a little more than half. On the other hand, Arkansas can score defensively as well, so maybe it’s a perfect comp.

Plus, if you use season-long comps instead of the two closest comps, the number would actually be about the same anyway: 111% instead of 106%. So, Arkansas’ estimated points would be 27.3 instead of 26.1. Because of that, I’m just going to trust the machine here. What will matter most in this game is which Tennessee defense shows up: the one that played the first two games of the season or the one that played the last three. Fingers crossed for the former.

Bottom line, the machine’s prediction, wonky as it sounds, checks out, and I’m not making any eyeball adjustments for my own pick this week: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that the Vols win a close one and don’t cover the meager spread.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols a 1-point favorite and an over/under of around 53, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 26-24 (Tennessee -2) and gives them a 55% chance of winning. He’s using a 1.5-point spread and thus barely likes Tennessee to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine only has an opinion on this game because I put a gun to its head: It thinks Tennessee will beat Arkansas but won’t cover either a 1- or a 1.5-point spread. I agree with the machine. Neither of us are at all confident about it, as both the game itself and the question of whether the Vols cover appear too close to call.

  • Vegas: Tennessee 27, Arkansas 26 (Vols -1)
  • SP+: Tennessee 26-24 (Vols cover, but barely)
  • GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27.5 (Vols don’t cover)
  • Me: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 27 (push)

Season results on Tennessee games

What do y’all think?

2020 GRT picks: Week 10

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 24-19 (55.81%) overall, 7-6 (53.85%) in Category 2, and 3-4 (42.86%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 113-116 (49.34%) in Category 1, 45-49 (47.87%) in Category 2, and 23-24 (48.94%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 21-20 (51.22%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 20-21-2 (48.78%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 116-110-4 (51.33%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 25-18 (58.14%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 10 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 10 Picks

Below are the machine’s picks this week. NOTE: This is the first week for the Pac-12 and the MAC, and the SPM is not currently doing well in the first couple of weeks of a team’s season. When the Big 10 first started up, the SPM whiffed on all but one game. Because of that, I’d avoid putting any confidence whatsoever in any of the Pac-12 or MAC games.

There are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week, although many of them are either Pac-10 or MAC games that are likely to be wrong. I wouldn’t beat my chest about anything this week, to be honest.

What are you favorite games this week?

How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 10 college football TV schedule

The Vols kick off against Arkansas this Saturday at 7:30 on the SEC Network, but don’t miss the Cocktail Party at 3:30 on CBS between SEC East foes Florida and Georgia. And if you can figure out how to be in two places at the same time, there’s also a huge game between No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame on NBC at the same time as the Vols play the Hogs.

Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. First up is a list curated just for Vols fans. The full searchable schedule for the entire week is at the bottom of the post.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Ohio Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

There are six (!) games scheduled for Wednesday night this week. ESPN thinks Ohio-Central Michigan is the best of the bunch. Okay.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Utah State Nevada 7:00 PM FS1 Live It's football

Sideways eyes.

Friday, November 6, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
#12 Miami NC State 7:30 PM ESPN Live Top 15 team
#11 BYU #25 Boise State 9:45 PM FS1 Live Top 25 matchup

Well, hey. A Friday night with not one, but two potentially good games. I’m in.

Gameday, November 7, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#13 Michigan #17 Indiana 12:00 PM FS1 Live Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
#10 Florida #5 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Live Top 10 SEC East matchup
Vanderbilt Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN DVR/ignore Future Vols' opponent
EVENING
Tennessee Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN Live GO VOLS!
#8 Texas A&M South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN DVR Next Vols' opponent
#1 Clemson #4 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC DVR/Check in Top 5 ACC matchup

The Vols’ game against Arkansas is on the SEC Network at 7:30 this Saturday opposite the national headliner of No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame on NBC. Also on in the same time slot is Tennessee’s next opponent, Texas A&M, at 7:00 on ESPN. DVR that one for scouting after the Vols-Hogs game.

Warm up for the Vols game with a noon game featuring Top 25 teams Michigan and Indiana on FS1 and then the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party During a Pandemic when No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Florida square off. That one kicks at 3:30 on CBS. You can also get a look at Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network. If you care.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

11/4/20 Eastern Michigan Kent State 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/4/20 Western Michigan Akron 6:00 PM ESPN3
11/4/20 Buffalo Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/4/20 Ohio Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN
11/4/20 Ball State Miami (OH) 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/4/20 Bowling Green Toledo 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/5/20 Utah State Nevada 7:00 PM FS1
11/5/20 Wyoming Colorado State 9:00 PM CBSSN
11/6/20 #12 Miami NC State 7:30 PM ESPN
11/6/20 San José State San Diego State 9:00 PM CBSSN
11/6/20 #11 BYU #25 Boise State 9:45 PM FS1
11/7/20 Rutgers #3 Ohio State 7:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 #6 Oklahoma State #16 Kansas State 4:00 PM FOX
11/7/20 #13 Michigan #17 Indiana 12:00 PM FS1
11/7/20 Maryland #18 Penn State 3:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 Baylor #23 Iowa State 7:00 PM FS1
11/7/20 Nebraska Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/7/20 Minnesota Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 Air Force Army 11:30 AM CBS
11/7/20 #15 North Carolina Duke 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 Arizona State #21 USC 12:00 PM FOX
11/7/20 #22 SMU Temple 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 South Florida Memphis 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Tulane East Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Tulsa Navy 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 Michigan State Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN
11/7/20 West Virginia Texas 12:00 PM ABC
11/7/20 UL Monroe Georgia State 12:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Liberty Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Arkansas State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Troy Georgia Southern 1:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Boston College Syracuse 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 UMass #19 Marshall 2:30 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 North Alabama Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Appalachian State Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 #10 Florida #5 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
11/7/20 Houston #7 Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPN
11/7/20 Purdue #9 Wisconsin CANCELED
11/7/20 Kansas #24 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 UTSA Rice 3:30 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Charlotte Middle Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Texas Tech TCU 3:30 PM
11/7/20 Fresno State UNLV 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 Arizona Utah 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
11/7/20 Florida International UTEP CANCELED
11/7/20 Pittsburgh Florida State 4:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
11/7/20 #8 Texas A&M South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN
11/7/20 Louisiana Tech North Texas 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 UCLA Colorado 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 #1 Clemson #4 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
11/7/20 Stanford #14 Oregon 7:30 PM ABC
11/7/20 Tennessee Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
11/7/20 South Alabama #20 Coastal Carolina 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Louisville Virginia 8:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Washington State Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
11/7/20 Washington California 10:30 PM ESPN
11/7/20 New Mexico Hawai'i 11:00 PM
Date Away Home Time TV

Tennessee-Arkansas: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Conclusions: SAFETY FIRST! Run the ball, defend the pass, be careful on third down because a punt is a good play.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Currently, Tennessee’s offense does not appear to have any advantage over Arkansas’ defense. However, there do appear to be a couple of areas that look even. The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t as good as we’d hoped yet this season, but the Razorbacks aren’t especially good defending the run, either. The two units also appear to be about even on first down.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s offense is still not good at all at converting third downs, and Arkansas’ defense is quite good at getting off the field on third downs. The Hogs are also really good against the pass in all facets, including generating turnovers in the passing game.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Based on these numbers, Tennessee’s best bet is to run the ball. It’s the most even matchup, and it avoids what appears to be a significant advantage for the Hogs in the passing game. The Vols are going to have to be effective enough on first and second down that running is an option on third.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Tennessee appears to have the advantage when the Vols are on defense, particularly against the run. They could also have some success in pressuring the quarterback and generating sacks.

Where’s the danger?

The Arkansas offense appears to have an advantage in the passing game, as the Vols are generally struggling to defend the pass and the Hogs are better at that than they are running the ball.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Shut down the run, but also devote extra resources and preparation time to defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback on pass plays.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have several advantages on special teams, particularly in all facets of the punt game. So, safety on third down and living to punt on fourth down is a good play.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Arkansas is a turnover machine, and they are disciplined from a penalties perspective as well. Ball security first!

Expected Win Total Analysis: After the bye week

With pretty much every future Vols’ opponent but Vanderbilt looking better during Tennessee’s bye week, the weekly reassessment of expected win totals is not a happy exercise. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

I did not dream of Nick Saban showing me up on the cornet in front of the other band nerds last night. So there’s that.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8

Well, the good news is that the Vandy game looks the same and that the Arkansas game is back to a toss-up. The bad news is . . . every other game looks worse this morning, which sounds about right.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.0.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
  • After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
  • After the bye week: 4.0

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Auburn at 25% (big mover this week), Texas A&M at 35% (down from 40%), Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, nothing new to analyze for the Vols this bye week so any adjustments to expectations will come from the results of other games.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC West

Hmm. A tough one right out of the gate. A&M looked really good, but so did Arkansas at times, and an 11-point loss to a team ranked No. 8 in the nation is nothing to be ashamed of. I had this game at 50% last week, and although the Hogs looked good, I’m sticking with that, largely because the SPM is also calling this one a toss-up. 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 4-1, 2nd in the SEC West

As I said, A&M looked good, and they looked good against an Arkansas team that didn’t look bad. I had this one at 40% last week, and although that seems maybe kinda right, I’m actually going to move it to 35% until I see some improvement from the Vols. 35%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Yikes. After getting quite lucky in a couple of games this season, Auburn made LSU look terrible and clobbered them 48-11. LSU has problems, I know, but you can’t watch that game and not think Auburn’s going to be more of a challenge than you thought last week. So, I’m moving this one from 45% to 25%, which makes me weepy.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-4, 7th in the SEC East

No news here, as the Commodores got blown out by Ole Miss, 54-21. Keeping this game at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Well, crud. It appears that the Gators made good use of their double bye week to patch a leaky defense. Great. If this game wasn’t already at 10%, I’d change it. As it is, though, I’m keeping it at 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

The Gamecocks were off this week as well. But just try to make sense of that resume. A loss to Tennessee, a win over Auburn, a blow-out loss to LSU, which just got blown out by Auburn. This kind of chaos might actually be good news for the Vols, as it suggests that most any team can beat (or lose to) any team any given week (Alabama excluded, naturally). Or it could mean that early season results mean little during a pandemic.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, chaos. A loss to Tennessee. A win over Kentucky, who beat Tennessee. A blow-out loss to Florida, which may say more about Florida than anything else, but who really knows? Trying to draw conclusions about Tennessee from that loss or from that resume generally is a fool’s errand.

Georgia

Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East

Due to the idea that general chaos renders any confidence about such things imprudent, I’ll just ask a question: Is Georgia’s offense perhaps struggling as much as maybe we thought it might (except against Tennessee and a brand-spanking-new Arkansas team), or is Kentucky’s defense just really good?

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-4, 6th in the SEC East

See Georgia above. I think Kentucky is better than its schedule will allow the Wildcats to show. Which could be good news for the Vols, as they need an extra win to erase a tiebreaker with Kentucky.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West

Who hates these guys?

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

2020 GRT picks: Week 9

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 20-24 (45.45%) overall, 7-14 (33.33%) (oof!) in Category 2, and 5-8 (38.46%) (oof!) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 89-97 (47.85%) in Category 1, 38-43 (46.91%) in Category 2, and 20-20 (50%) in Category 3. The SPM’s overall record for the week was the same (20-24; 45.45%) using the spreads that SP+ uses.

In the same games and using the same spreads, SP+ was one game better than the SPM, going 21-23 for the week. Connelly’s official results: 20-24 (45.45%) for the week and 96-89-2 (51.89%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 9 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 9 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 7 Category 3 games (plus one more on each side that only barely didn’t make the cut) that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

2020 College Football TV Schedule: Week 9

The Vols get a bye this week, but there are still plenty of interesting games for Tennessee fans to watch this weekend. First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
South Alabama Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPN Live It's football

If it’s good enough for ESPN, it’s good enough for Vols fans, right? No?

Friday, October 30, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Minnesota Maryland 7:30 PM ESPN Live It's football

Gameday, October 31, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Georgia Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN Live Two prior Vols' opponents
AFTERNOON
LSU Auburn 3:30 PM CBS Live Future Vols' opponent
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN Check-in Future Vols' opponent
EVENING
Mississippi State #2 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN Check in Prior Vols' opponent
#3 Ohio State #18 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC Check in Top 25 matchup
Arkansas #8 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Two future Vols' opponents
Missouri #10 Florida 7:30 PM SECN Alt Channel Hop/DVR Prior and future Vols' opponents

With the Vols off this week, it’s time to relax a little and focus on future and prior opponents. At noon, it’s a battle of priors as Kentucky takes on Georgia. Go ‘Cats?

LSU and future Vols’ opponent Auburn get the CBS 3:30 slot, and we also get a look at Vanderbilt as the Commodores play Ole Miss at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

The evening slate is full, as most of the country will be watching a Top 25 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State on ABC at 7:30. More important to Vols fans, though, is future opponents Arkansas and Texas A&M playing at 7:30 on the SEC Network with Florida and Missouri also playing at the same time on the SEC Alternate channel. And you can probably watch this one in your mind without seeing any of it, but Alabama also plays Mississippi State at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

10/29/20 South Alabama Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPN
10/29/20 Colorado State Fresno State 10:00 PM CBSSN
10/30/20 #19 Marshall Florida International 7:00 PM CBSSN
10/30/20 Minnesota Maryland 7:30 PM ESPN
10/30/20 East Carolina Tulsa 9:00 PM ESPN2
10/30/20 Hawai'i Wyoming 9:45 PM
10/31/20 Boston College #1 Clemson 12:00 PM ABC
10/31/20 #5 Georgia Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN
10/31/20 Memphis #7 Cincinnati 12:00 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Michigan State #13 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 #16 Kansas State West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 #20 Coastal Carolina Georgia State 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 #23 Iowa State Kansas 12:00 PM FS1
10/31/20 UTSA Florida Atlantic 12:00 PM
10/31/20 Temple Tulane 12:00 PM ESPN+
10/31/20 Purdue Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
10/31/20 Wake Forest Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 North Texas UTEP 2:00 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 UCF Houston 2:00 PM ESPN+
10/31/20 Rice Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 Troy Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 #4 Notre Dame Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ABC
10/31/20 #9 Wisconsin Nebraska 3:30 PM FS1
10/31/20 #17 Indiana Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
10/31/20 UAB Louisiana Tech 3:30 PM
10/31/20 TCU Baylor 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 LSU Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
10/31/20 Northwestern Iowa 3:30 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Texas #6 Oklahoma State 4:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 Ole Miss Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
10/31/20 Appalachian State UL Monroe 4:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 Virginia Tech Louisville 4:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 #25 Boise State Air Force 6:00 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 Mississippi State #2 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Charlotte Duke 7:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 New Mexico San José State 7:00 PM FS1
10/31/20 #3 Ohio State #18 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC
10/31/20 Arkansas #8 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN
10/31/20 Missouri #10 Florida 7:30 PM SECN Alt
10/31/20 Navy #22 SMU 7:30 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 #15 North Carolina Virginia 8:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 #24 Oklahoma Texas Tech 8:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 Louisiana Texas State 8:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 San Diego State Utah State 9:30 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 Western Kentucky #11 BYU 10:15 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Nevada UNLV 10:30 PM FS1