Category Archives: Football

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 24-19 (55.81%) overall, 7-6 (53.85%) in Category 2, and 3-4 (42.86%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 113-116 (49.34%) in Category 1, 45-49 (47.87%) in Category 2, and 23-24 (48.94%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 21-20 (51.22%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 20-21-2 (48.78%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 116-110-4 (51.33%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 25-18 (58.14%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 10 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 10 Picks

Below are the machine’s picks this week. NOTE: This is the first week for the Pac-12 and the MAC, and the SPM is not currently doing well in the first couple of weeks of a team’s season. When the Big 10 first started up, the SPM whiffed on all but one game. Because of that, I’d avoid putting any confidence whatsoever in any of the Pac-12 or MAC games.

There are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week, although many of them are either Pac-10 or MAC games that are likely to be wrong. I wouldn’t beat my chest about anything this week, to be honest.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols kick off against Arkansas this Saturday at 7:30 on the SEC Network, but don’t miss the Cocktail Party at 3:30 on CBS between SEC East foes Florida and Georgia. And if you can figure out how to be in two places at the same time, there’s also a huge game between No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame on NBC at the same time as the Vols play the Hogs.

Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. First up is a list curated just for Vols fans. The full searchable schedule for the entire week is at the bottom of the post.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

There are six (!) games scheduled for Wednesday night this week. ESPN thinks Ohio-Central Michigan is the best of the bunch. Okay.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Sideways eyes.

Friday, November 6, 2020

Well, hey. A Friday night with not one, but two potentially good games. I’m in.

Gameday, November 7, 2020

The Vols’ game against Arkansas is on the SEC Network at 7:30 this Saturday opposite the national headliner of No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame on NBC. Also on in the same time slot is Tennessee’s next opponent, Texas A&M, at 7:00 on ESPN. DVR that one for scouting after the Vols-Hogs game.

Warm up for the Vols game with a noon game featuring Top 25 teams Michigan and Indiana on FS1 and then the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party During a Pandemic when No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Florida square off. That one kicks at 3:30 on CBS. You can also get a look at Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network. If you care.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Conclusions: SAFETY FIRST! Run the ball, defend the pass, be careful on third down because a punt is a good play.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Currently, Tennessee’s offense does not appear to have any advantage over Arkansas’ defense. However, there do appear to be a couple of areas that look even. The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t as good as we’d hoped yet this season, but the Razorbacks aren’t especially good defending the run, either. The two units also appear to be about even on first down.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s offense is still not good at all at converting third downs, and Arkansas’ defense is quite good at getting off the field on third downs. The Hogs are also really good against the pass in all facets, including generating turnovers in the passing game.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Based on these numbers, Tennessee’s best bet is to run the ball. It’s the most even matchup, and it avoids what appears to be a significant advantage for the Hogs in the passing game. The Vols are going to have to be effective enough on first and second down that running is an option on third.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Tennessee appears to have the advantage when the Vols are on defense, particularly against the run. They could also have some success in pressuring the quarterback and generating sacks.

Where’s the danger?

The Arkansas offense appears to have an advantage in the passing game, as the Vols are generally struggling to defend the pass and the Hogs are better at that than they are running the ball.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Shut down the run, but also devote extra resources and preparation time to defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback on pass plays.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have several advantages on special teams, particularly in all facets of the punt game. So, safety on third down and living to punt on fourth down is a good play.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Arkansas is a turnover machine, and they are disciplined from a penalties perspective as well. Ball security first!

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 20-24 (45.45%) overall, 7-14 (33.33%) (oof!) in Category 2, and 5-8 (38.46%) (oof!) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 89-97 (47.85%) in Category 1, 38-43 (46.91%) in Category 2, and 20-20 (50%) in Category 3. The SPM’s overall record for the week was the same (20-24; 45.45%) using the spreads that SP+ uses.

In the same games and using the same spreads, SP+ was one game better than the SPM, going 21-23 for the week. Connelly’s official results: 20-24 (45.45%) for the week and 96-89-2 (51.89%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 9 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 9 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 7 Category 3 games (plus one more on each side that only barely didn’t make the cut) that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols get a bye this week, but there are still plenty of interesting games for Tennessee fans to watch this weekend. First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

If it’s good enough for ESPN, it’s good enough for Vols fans, right? No?

Friday, October 30, 2020

Gameday, October 31, 2020

With the Vols off this week, it’s time to relax a little and focus on future and prior opponents. At noon, it’s a battle of priors as Kentucky takes on Georgia. Go ‘Cats?

LSU and future Vols’ opponent Auburn get the CBS 3:30 slot, and we also get a look at Vanderbilt as the Commodores play Ole Miss at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

The evening slate is full, as most of the country will be watching a Top 25 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State on ABC at 7:30. More important to Vols fans, though, is future opponents Arkansas and Texas A&M playing at 7:30 on the SEC Network with Florida and Missouri also playing at the same time on the SEC Alternate channel. And you can probably watch this one in your mind without seeing any of it, but Alabama also plays Mississippi State at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Nope

Took a hit this week: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Currently needs improvement: Pretty much everything, but let’s start here: 3rd down conversion percentage, total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, passing yards per completion, rushing offense . . . you get the idea

Improved this week: Nope

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Took a hit this week: Total defense, which is to be expected after playing a historically good offense, and passing yards allowed. Also, pretty much everything else got worse as well, which again, is to be expected.

Improved this week: Nope

Currently needs improvement: As with the offense, it’s a long list, but should start with 3rd down conversion percentage defense (and a host of other stuff)

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Punt return defense went from No. 2 to No. 18; net punting fell again, this time from No. 24 to No. 31.

Improved this week: Nope

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense, again

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Major downward trends this week in these categories are fewest penalties, fewest penalties per game, and fumbles lost.

Improved this week: Nope

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers

There’s no escaping the kinds of conversations we have after a loss like that. Losing to Alabama by 30+ points was, sadly, one of the more normal things about yesterday in Neyland Stadium; the Vols have now lost the last five in this series by 39, 38, 37, 22, and 31. When it happens in your coach’s third year, you have to ask about progress. When the coach is asked about progress, he has to say we’ve made some. When fans hear the coach say we’ve made some, we go back to that list of scores, rinse repeat.

We could have painful conversations about how to narrowly define that progress against Alabama (did you know 17 points for the Tennessee offense is tied for the second-most the Vols have scored in regulation in this rivalry since the seven game winning streak ended in 2001?!?! See, you don’t want to have this conversation.)

But it’s more helpful, especially here at the bye week, to take the most obvious lesson of 2020: we’re not ready to measure progress primarily by what we do against Alabama and Georgia.

This was a valid question at the start of the year, and possibly one with an answer we liked at halftime of the Georgia game. Three turnovers made it swing hard the other way, but Tennessee’s inability to move the ball at all would’ve left us with the same answer either way. Closer, maybe, but not ready to win without courting weirdness and perfection. Against Alabama, same answer, only more obvious.

And part of not being ready to measure ourselves against those two is also being the sort of team that can in no way turn it over on three consecutive possessions and have two of them ran back for touchdowns against anybody. Do that against Arkansas and maybe even Vanderbilt, and we’ll get blown by again same as Kentucky did.

But it’s also true, here in year three, that we shouldn’t be measuring progress primarily by what we do against the SEC East’s second tier either. That measurement was very important last year, and the Vols passed the test. Not with enough flying colors to make them bulletproof against that group, as we’ve seen. But whatever has become of our history and our culture, none of us will get where we want to go if we only value what happens against Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.

You can’t make it only about beating the second tier in year three here. And we’re clearly not ready to make it about beating Alabama or Georgia.

That leaves us with the space between: isn’t the best way to measure progress this year by what the Vols do against teams like Texas A&M, Auburn, and Florida? Wasn’t that true at the beginning of the year, only skewed by the schedule that gave us Georgia and Alabama first?

If so, good news: here come those games.

Tennessee’s schedule has, for as long as I’ve been alive, been light on November. It’s what happens when you traditionally play Kentucky and Vanderbilt to close the year, had Ole Miss in there before divisional play, then added South Carolina on Halloween weekend and Missouri in early November after that. Since divisional play began in 1992, the Vols have played only 16 ranked teams in November/December in the regular season. That’s 16 in 29 seasons. Six of those are non-conference foes from 2005 and earlier; Tennessee doesn’t schedule a marquee non-conference opponent in November anymore. And the Vols haven’t faced a Top 10 opponent in November since 2013.

Playing a ranked opponent in November/December is something that happens basically every other year on average, when the Vols have caught Kentucky or Missouri in an up cycle, or a late-season SEC West rotating opponent like LSU in 2017 or Auburn in 2013. It’s aggressively normal for the fate of our season to be decided by what happens in September and October, and if the fates are unkind, we talk about playing youth and getting ready for next year.

But not this time, at all.

Now, the Vols will get Arkansas (receiving votes), #8 Texas A&M, Auburn (receiving votes), Vanderbilt, and #10 Florida. Not only will these be the most meaningful opportunities of the season, they’ll be the most meaningful outcomes for the future.

In year one, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols gave themselves a chance to do something memorable when they beat #12 Kentucky, then got blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. In year two, Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols dug themselves quite the ditch in the first half of the year, then created their own meaning in a six-turned-eight-game winning streak. Those wins were incredibly meaningful. But the bar here is still higher than the teams Tennessee beat in that run last year.

The bar isn’t Alabama and Georgia, not yet. But if you want to clear that one, we need better players. Best way to get better players is to win games. In 2020, I don’t think anyone should be on the hot seat; these aren’t, “Should he be fired?” games. But they might control the speed of Tennessee’s progress in the future. How fast we can start measuring ourselves against the Tide and Dawgs will depend on how quickly we can get more of those players.

The Vols should play youth if it helps them win now, not next year. Because right now, plenty of real live progress is left on the the table for this team, and plenty of more winnable games that could still make for some of the better memories we’ve had around here in a long time. Can they take care of business against Arkansas in a game that’s suddenly so much more dangerous? Then what can they do in search of their first Top 10 win since 2006 when that Top 10 opponent isn’t Georgia or Alabama, as the Dawgs and Tide represent nine of the last ten Top 10 opponents we’ve faced?

Can they give themselves a chance to get Florida at the end of the year?

You’re going to get some answers in the second half of this year, and they will be more meaningful than the answers we’ve heard already. I don’t know if we’ll like them or not. But it makes a lot more sense to judge these Vols by what they do against A&M, Auburn, and Florida than what they did against Alabama and Georgia.

I think these next five will be the most meaningful set of games for Jeremy Pruitt yet. It’s valuable for the future. But it’s also still incredibly valuable for the present. Progress, meaning, and memories are still out there for this team to have. And if they get them, the Vols will give themselves a better chance to make memories against the Tide next time.

Credit Pruitt for the winning streak last year. Credit Bama for being Bama. Progress for the Vols is somewhere between.

And it’s still out there in the present, not the future.