Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 20-24 (45.45%) overall, 7-14 (33.33%) (oof!) in Category 2, and 5-8 (38.46%) (oof!) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 89-97 (47.85%) in Category 1, 38-43 (46.91%) in Category 2, and 20-20 (50%) in Category 3. The SPM’s overall record for the week was the same (20-24; 45.45%) using the spreads that SP+ uses.
In the same games and using the same spreads, SP+ was one game better than the SPM, going 21-23 for the week. Connelly’s official results: 20-24 (45.45%) for the week and 96-89-2 (51.89%) for the season.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 9 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 9 Picks
Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| South Alabama | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | -6.5 | Georgia Southern | -6.6 | Covers |
| Iowa State | Kansas | Iowa State | -28.5 | Iowa State | -28.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Hawai'i | Wyoming | Hawai'i | -1 | Hawai'i | -1.2 | Covers |
| Purdue | Illinois | Purdue | -5 | Purdue | -5.2 | Covers |
| Virginia Tech | Louisville | Virginia Tech | -3 | Virginia Tech | -3.2 | Covers |
| UTSA | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic | -6.5 | Florida Atlantic | -7.6 | Covers |
| UCF | Houston | UCF | -3.5 | UCF | -2.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Western Kentucky | BYU | BYU | -28.5 | BYU | -29.9 | Covers |
| Nevada | UNLV | Nevada | -10 | Nevada | -11.5 | Covers |
| Missouri | Florida | Florida | -11.5 | Florida | -9.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Temple | Tulane | Tulane | -1 | Tulane | -3.2 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Texas State | Louisiana-Lafayette | -16.5 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -19.1 | Covers |
| Michigan State | Michigan | Michigan | -23.5 | Michigan | -20.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| UAB | Louisiana Tech | UAB | -9.5 | UAB | -12.3 | Covers |
| Navy | SMU | SMU | -16 | SMU | -13.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Appalachian State | Louisiana-Monroe | Appalachian State | -31.5 | Appalachian State | -28.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| LSU | Auburn | LSU | -3 | LSU | -6.2 | Covers |
| Mississippi State | Alabama | Alabama | -32 | Alabama | -27.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oklahoma | Texas Tech | Oklahoma | -15.5 | Oklahoma | -19.9 | Covers |
| Rice | Southern Mississippi | Southern Mississippi | -3.5 | Rice | -1.3 | Doesn't cover |
| East Carolina | Tulsa | Tulsa | -18.5 | Tulsa | -23.4 | Covers |
| Kansas State | West Virginia | West Virginia | -3.5 | Kansas State | -1.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Northwestern | Iowa | Iowa | -3.5 | Northwestern | -2.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Boston College | Clemson | Clemson | -31.5 | Clemson | -25.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Indiana | Rutgers | Indiana | -13 | Indiana | -6.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia | Kentucky | Georgia | -14.5 | Georgia | -21.4 | Covers |
| Texas | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | -3 | Oklahoma State | -10.6 | Covers |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | -11.5 | Texas A&M | -3.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| San Diego State | Utah State | San Diego State | -7 | San Diego State | -15.1 | Covers |
| Minnesota | Maryland | Minnesota | -17.5 | Minnesota | -8.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| TCU | Baylor | TCU | -2.5 | Baylor | -6.8 | Doesn't cover |
| North Carolina | Virginia | North Carolina | -7 | North Carolina | -16.3 | Covers |
| Colorado State | Fresno State | Fresno State | -1.5 | Colorado State | -8.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Boise State | Air Force | Boise State | -10 | Air Force | -0.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Wake Forest | Syracuse | Wake Forest | -9 | Wake Forest | -20.4 | Covers |
| Memphis | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -6 | Cincinnati | -18.3 | Covers |
| Ohio State | Penn State | Ohio State | -5.5 | Ohio State | -18.6 | Covers |
| New Mexico | San Jose State | San Jose State | -9.5 | San Jose State | -23.6 | Covers |
| Mississippi | Vanderbilt | Mississippi | -17 | Mississippi | -31.6 | Covers |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | Coastal Carolina | -1.5 | Coastal Carolina | -16.3 | Covers |
| Troy | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -5.5 | Troy | -10.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Notre Dame | Georgia Tech | Notre Dame | -20 | Notre Dame | -37.2 | Covers |
| Charlotte | Duke | Duke | -11 | Charlotte | -11.4 | Doesn't cover |
There are 7 Category 3 games (plus one more on each side that only barely didn’t make the cut) that the SPM likes particularly well this week.
What are you favorite games this week?