Author Archives: Will Shelton

So, you’re going to project the Vols to finish with right at seven wins this week. The math involved is if you give Tennessee enough of a chance against Georgia to counterbalance whatever chance you give South Alabama and Vanderbilt against Tennessee. But it’s a pretty safe bet to assume seven.

The interesting question here is just how much of a chance you do give the Vols on Saturday. In Tuscaloosa, that number was 6.7%. Tennessee was a 24.5 point underdog at the end of the week; the Vols are around 20.5 on this Tuesday morning.

We’re no stranger to playing the number one team in the land, having done it against Alabama seven of the last 13 seasons. Since beating Bo Jackson and #1 Auburn in 1985, the Vols have faced the top team a dozen times overall:

• 1990 Notre Dame (L 34-29)
• 1994 Florida (L 31-0)
• 2002 Miami (L 26-3)
• 2009 Florida (L 33-23)
• 2009 Alabama (L 12-10)
• 2011 LSU (L 38-7)
• 2012 Alabama (L 44-13)
• 2013 Alabama (L 45-10)
• 2016 Alabama (L 49-10)
• 2017 Alabama (L 45-7)
• 2018 Alabama (L 58-21)
• 2019 Alabama (L 35-13)

In that span, Tennessee has four wins over #2 (1985 Miami, 1998 Florida, 1998 Florida State, 2001 Florida), got #3 Georgia in 2004, and last beat a Top 5 team in The Rally at Death Valley over #4 LSU the following year.

How much of a chance do we give these Vols compared to any of those? It’s obviously less than anything from Phillip Fulmer’s tenure. But it’s probably more than most of that run against Alabama. It’s enough to be curious, just to see what happens…and this year, this week? That’s good enough for me.

Last night’s win still feels a bit like a relief. It’s unfair in some ways: any win over a ranked team still falls in the celebration category for Tennessee. You have to go back 15 years to find the Vols beating a Top 20 foe on the road (Georgia 2006, which remains Tennessee’s last Top 10 win anywhere). It qualifies as a signature win in year one. And while I enjoy this rivalry quite a bit, you don’t want to downgrade beating Kentucky just because they’re Kentucky. Credit Mark Stoops and those guys for building something worth celebrating when you beat them.

I think most of this is the way Tennessee jumped UK 14-7 and was ready to extend the lead before the fumbled exchange. Tennessee gained 189 yards on its first six snaps. It’s hard to not get a bit downhill from there. But the unstoppable feeling of the Vol offense combined with the uncomfortable feeling of Kentucky getting every third down? It made the game feel less back-and-forth and more, “Why aren’t we putting these guys away?”

So sure: Tennessee’s defense is now 126th in third down conversions allowed at 48.39%. The Vols have given up points on 33 of 35 red zone trips (94.29%, 124th) and a touchdown on 28 of those (80%, 127th). But again, it’s not complicated to see what Tim Banks’ group is going for.

Tennessee’s defense has faced 716 snaps, the most for any team playing nine games and no overtimes so far this year. They’ve given up 148 plays of 10+ yards, 114th nationally.

But they’ve only given up six plays of 40+ yards, 23rd nationally. Bend, don’t break, rinse, repeat.

They’re disruptive up front, second in the country in tackles for loss with 8.11. And sure, some of that is the enormous snap count. But they still made those plays count late in getting Kentucky’s offense off rhythm. They’re 95th in total defense if you only look at yards per game. But in yards per play, they’re 43rd. And play-for-play, in SP+ the defense rates 35th nationally: not great, but still something better than average.

Despite what we saw from Kentucky last night, this defense is still playing above what we expected from it coming into the year. In those SP+ ratings, the Vols are still in far better company than we thought we’d see in year one:

That 2012 squad is actually a decent comparison when we’re in our feelings about the defense. It’s just that those feelings feel different when you’re overperforming in a coach’s first year vs underperforming in a coach’s third. And that defense did have backbreaking end-of-game sequences against Florida and Mississippi State. Few are looking for revisionist history on Derek Dooley nine years after the fact. But we do still tend to think of 2012 as, “Offense good! Defense bad!”

This team has a great chance to be remembered for far more than that. The Ole Miss loss still feels, to most, like, “Referees bad!” And the Pitt loss gets some of that, along with -3 in turnovers. But in the long view, this team has done exactly what we hoped as a best-case scenario at the start of the year: split your toss-ups with Pitt, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, and make sure you beat South Carolina. Missouri’s defense is way worse than we thought. But those other three teams are way better. I’m not sure anyone had us going 0-2 in Neyland and 2-0 on the road in that scenario, but we’ll take it. And what we saw for much of last night from the defense is what we feared we’d see all year…and we haven’t. And when it mattered most last night, we didn’t then either.

Who knows what Georgia will reveal, and perhaps the Vols will get another toss-up in the postseason. But I’d look for ways to give this defense credit at this point in the year, not take it from them.

Two teams and several lifetimes ago, one of our favorite villains said something like, “We’ll make the free throws we need to make.” In a new era that feels increasingly like watching a basketball game, Josh Heupel got his first win over a ranked team in the Bluegrass. The offense was spectacular in a way that we’re just wholly unaccustomed to. The defense?

They made the stop(s) they needed to make.

I’m not sure how often we’ll see a game like this down the road. It felt like a bit of what we signed up for in bringing Heupel’s…well, Heuper Drive offense (shout out Joel) to Knoxville. It’s also tantalizing to watch a game like this and think, “Man, if we get some depth on defense…”.

Tennessee’s defense came into tonight 117th nationally in third down conversion percentage allowed, then gave up 12-of-17 to Kentucky. But three of Kentucky’s last five drives ended with Alontae Taylor’s pick six, and a pair of fourth down stops: a sack on 4th-and-7 with an all-out blitz, and enough pressure to force an uncatchable ball to the sideline on 4th-and-10. That made four straight incomplete passes for Will Levis, which sounds a lot better than the 4th-and-24 conversion that preceded it.

That’s one thing about this defense: late in the game, they get off the field when we need it. Against Pittsburgh, they forced consecutive punts when the Vols cut it to 41-34. The last three drives for Ole Miss ended with an interception, punt, and three-and-out. And it feels much better in victory tonight.

It feels a bit like relief, in part because the offense was so ridiculously good.

Tennessee had 9.81 yards per play, which includes three kneel downs by Hendon Hooker (otherwise known as 6.3% of our total snaps). That number was 8.76 at Missouri, in what felt like the greatest thing we’d seen in a long time. When the Vols set records against Troy in 2012, they did it with 9.45 yards per play.

Via SportSource Analytics, tonight is the second-best yards per play performance for the Vol offense of the post-Fulmer era. The only one better also came against Kentucky: 599 yards in 59 plays for Josh Dobbs and company in 2016. That’s 10.15 per play. Tonight, before the three kneel downs, the Vols had 10.66.

At Missouri, Hendon Hooker was 15-of-19 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, 11.8 yards per attempt. Tonight: 15-of-20 for 316 yards and four touchdowns, 15.8 yards per attempt. Against FBS foes, the best performance in yards per attempt for Tennessee quarterbacks with 20+ attempts in the post-Fulmer era? Before tonight, it was Jonathan Crompton against Memphis in 2009 (21-of-27 for 331 yards, 12.3 ypa). Against an SEC foe, it was Crompton against Georgia (20-of-27 for 310 yards, 11.5 ypa). Hooker, Heupel, and Tennessee’s receivers shattered those numbers tonight, and did it against a Kentucky defense that came in 32nd nationally in yards per attempt allowed.

Look, at some point we’ll stop making this comparison because it’s irrelevant. But at least for tonight: last year, Tennessee had three plays of 40+ yards. That’s three of 660 snaps, less than one half of one percent.

Tennessee had 10 plays of 40+ yards coming into tonight. Then they had three in 47 snaps in this game, plus two other gains of 37 yards.

That again creates imbalance in snaps and time of possession. It means your defense can get off the field more than they get credit for. It also means the times you don’t score on offense feel much worse, because they too are a much bigger percentage of the whole. The Vols got 45 points, and also had a fumbled exchange inside the Kentucky 30, couldn’t convert on 4th-and-8 inside the Kentucky 40, and of course walked away with nothing from 2nd-and-goal at the 4 with a chance to put the game away.

That sequence and the ensuing 4th-and-24 conversion from Kentucky gave us all a case of the oh-nos. And yet…the defense made the stops they needed to make.

The rules all change next week, when the Vols will shoot their shot against the number one team in the nation. But on the other side of that are South Alabama and Vanderbilt, which could represent wins six and seven for this team, giving them a chance to go bowling to get eight. 8-5 would be the best record for any first year coach at Tennessee since Phillip Fulmer. And more than that, Heupel got his ranked win, just the 10th in Knoxville since Fulmer left in 2008. It’s just the sixth Top 20 in that span.

At the extremes of what this offense and defense can and can’t do, the Vols got the win. The defense made the stop it needed to make. And Tennessee’s forward progress rolls on in an incredibly enjoyable year one.

Go Vols.

Opportunity knocks tomorrow night in Lexington, where the Vols will face #18 Kentucky in 40 degree glory. Tennessee started as a four-point underdog this week, but this morning I’m seeing them some places at -1. SP+ likes the Vols by four. And in expected win totals, our community gives Tennessee a 53.9% chance of victory, which is indeed a higher number than we saw going into toss-ups with Pittsburgh, Missouri, and Ole Miss.

Josh Heupel’s team has played good football this season, really good compared to what we’ve seen before/thought we would again. In SP+ these Vols remain contemporaries of the 2009, 2012, and 2016 teams, and not the company of the last four years we thought they’d keep. They went deep into the night in Gainesville and Tuscaloosa. They had a chance to beat Pitt at -3 in turnovers. And they finished the Ole Miss game with a 74.1% win expectancy in SP+. It’s pointing in the right direction for the long haul.

This is the game to get to solidify the present.

Kill The Narrative

One thing the Kentucky game has done in the last ten years is drastically impact the narrative for Tennessee. We talked about this a lot during our lengthy period of coaching uncertainty last December, but when you look at Tennessee’s wilderness period as a whole, there are really only three games that could’ve single-handedly changed Tennessee’s fate in a significant way. There are many losses that weren’t close, many that were close but were followed by too many others. But I still think three games could’ve changed the story of Tennessee in the 2010s in a meaningful way. The fourth quarter of the 2007 SEC Championship Game, which would’ve kept Phillip Fulmer employed through 2008. Change one of any number of plays from the 2015 Florida game, and you’ve given Butch Jones an SEC East title in year three.

And the 2011 Kentucky loss, which might have kept more of the staff intact and prevented the defensive meltdown of 2012.

That 10-7 loss in Lexington, now celebrating its 10th anniversary, swung the narrative hard against Derek Dooley in ways the 2012 team/defense couldn’t recover from. It was at the time a blip on the radar: Tennessee won the next five in the series in the transition from Dooley to Butch and Joker Phillips to Mark Stoops. When the Cats won again in 2017 (despite the Vols being +4 in turnovers, because we attempted six field goals), it solidified the narrative, effectively ending the Butch Jones era. Take nothing away from how Kentucky fans felt about it, but for us it was almost a relief.

And then, last year.

There was more losing behind and before Jeremy Pruitt; it wasn’t one of those games that if you change a couple plays or the entire outcome, he’s still the coach here. But considering where we were at halftime the week before, and where we left that day in Knoxville? It’s one of the most dramatic and revealing swings we’ve experienced.

October 17, 2020 was originally Tennessee’s bye week in pre-covid world. So I, like many, was getting ready for a wedding. The Vols had a halftime lead on Georgia seven days earlier before turnovers buried them. “Can’t beat Georgia when you do that,” we thought, “but we’re still a good team.” Still won eight in a row before Athens. Kentucky was 1-2 with losses to Auburn and Ole Miss, plus a win over Mississippi State. And it was Tennessee who came into this one ranked 18th.

It happened slowly, at least as I remember listening to it on the radio, and then it happened very fast. There’s a freedom that comes from changing coaches and playing well that allows us to look back on this game this week and see that’s true. Kentucky went three-and-out, and Tennessee drove to the UK 30. But Jarrett Guarantano was sacked, and the Vols punted from their own 37.

Then Kentucky fumbled at their own 45 yard line, but Tennessee gave it right back at the 26. Kentucky punted again, and we went to the second quarter scoreless.

The first pick six came in Tennessee territory, raced back 41 yards for a 7-0 Kentucky lead. The Vols went backwards on the ensuing first down, but then ripped off gains of 25, 10, 9, and 8. First-and-10 at the UK 28, no problem.

And then the second pick six, 85 yards for a 14-0 Kentucky lead. Then J.T. Shrout, who threw an interception two plays later, leading to 17-0.

Tennessee had 4th-and-1 at their own 34 with five minutes to play in the half, went for it, and converted. Then Eric Gray and Ty Chandler carried the ball ten straight times for a touchdown. 17-7 at the break, with Tennessee’s defense keeping everything alive.

To open the third quarter, the Vols again had 4th-and-1 at their own 30. This time, Pruitt elected to punt. And this time, Kentucky pounced: 76 yards in 11 plays, facing nothing more than 3rd-and-1. 24-7 Cats midway through the third quarter. In response, the Vols got one first down before Guarantano was sacked, effectively ending the drive. Kentucky added three more. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty ended the next drive, and Kentucky went 54 yards without facing anything more than 3rd-and-2. It was over with 11 minutes still on the clock. Lots of things felt over.

In Vegas, it’s the worst Tennessee has performed in the post-Fulmer era: favored by 6.5, lost by 27. Any remaining signs of life against Arkansas and Auburn died out in the same game. And the investigation sealed the deal on the Jeremy Pruitt era.

New Life From the Old

Losing to Kentucky in Knoxville for the first time since 1984 was, in many ways, the last remaining seal on the old days. There is no more, “Tennessee always beats _______________.” Removed from the heat of the moment, I think that can actually be a good thing. Too many years, too many tries, etc. – best to focus on the present, where Heupel and company are doing a great job so far.

And that’s what makes tomorrow night such a great opportunity: the chance to solidify that narrative for 2021 by beating a ranked team. The Vols would go to 5-4, with only a shot at #1 and assumed wins over South Alabama and Vanderbilt remaining. Maybe this kind of opportunity will present itself in a bowl game, maybe not. But it’s here today, and the Vols should feel like they have every opportunity to get it.

The team’s performance this year has left little doubt on whether moving on from Pruitt and company was a good thing. The investigation that ended his tenure is now ended itself, and there is no bowl ban coming from Tennessee’s side. The Vols are playing well, in hopes that recruiting will follow. And in this sport, everything follows winning, and Heupel has a chance to get his biggest one tomorrow night.

Credit Kentucky, as well, for the move from, “Losing to these guys costs everything,” to, “Beating these guys can solidify the present.” Advanced stats may not love them, but if they beat us? All that stands between them and a 10-2 season is Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and the rivalry finish with Louisville. Even after last week, that may be all that stands between them and the Citrus Bowl, at worst. That would join the 2018 team as the program’s best bowl appearance since 1951.

Under Stoops, Kentucky is free from their past. And this, so far, has felt like a good time for the Vols to make a clean break from theirs, good and bad. The future remains too soon to tell overall in Knoxville, and Stoops’ good work may make this a more anxious ride on the coaching carousel in Lexington. But no matter what, both teams have done the good work this season of making this a really big game. For both teams. In the present.

Again, credit Heupel and this team for even getting in games like this in year one.

Now’s the time to win one.

Go Vols.

Last week, our community projected the Vols to finish with 6.54 wins, just a hair down from the preseason total of 6.74 in preseason. That number was actually up from the week before (6.45), showing increased confidence in the Vols despite the loss at Alabama.

Considering our November schedule, the real difference between six and seven projected wins is what you think Tennessee will do on Saturday night in Lexington. Last week, our community gave Tennessee a 51.5% chance of victory in the Bluegrass, numbers similar to what we’ve seen against Ole Miss (47.2%), Missouri (52%), and Pittsburgh (49.2%). We thought those would be four toss-up-ish games in preseason, and they all felt about that way heading into kickoff.

But now, heading into this kickoff, Kentucky is fresh off a faceplant in Starkville.

So we’re running the machine again this week, to see how much more confident you’re feeling against the Wildcats. The Georgia number may change a bit as well after they stomped Florida, but we’ll worry about that next week.

Whether trying to keep up with an elite rival or finding themselves in a toss-up, the margins are thin for this Tennessee team. We’re accustomed to saying that in a coach’s first year, when it’s often led to blowout losses. But these Vols went deep into the night in Gainesville and Tuscaloosa. And they were the proverbial one play away against currently-ranked #10 Ole Miss and #17 Pittsburgh.

It’s never really one play, especially so when the Vols are playing at such a fast pace. Tennessee’s offense is eighth nationally in total snaps, its defense 127th in snaps allowed. I’ll keep saying it this year, and who knows how long after that: we’re still getting used to watching football this way. Not only did individual plays stand out more in the past because there were fewer of them, you also had so much more time between plays to internalize the last one.

This continues to feel much more like basketball: important stuff happens all night, but you’re going to pay much more attention to what happens at the end. For example, the most important play in the Tennessee/Ole Miss game, as it related to its impact on the outcome, was probably the fumbled punt. But because it happened just four minutes into a night that stretched into morning, we talked about it far less than many of the evening’s additional festivities.

Thin margins at a fast pace means you’ll have more opportunities for moments that can swing the game. It’s never just one play, but there are now more individual plays that can make a big difference. Case in point: what Tennessee is doing on third down on both sides of the ball.

On offense, the Vols are 15th nationally in third down conversions (vs FBS) at 47.96%. This is in spite of a 2-for-13 performance in Tuscaloosa. Last year the Vols were 118th in this department, converting at 30.23%. The last time Tennessee was north of 45% in this category: 2015, when the offense rebounded from a 6-of-18 performance against Oklahoma to hit at least 40% in every other FBS game. We tend not to think of the 2015 offense as one of the best we’ve seen recently because the 2016 version was better. But converting third downs covers a multitude of sins: witness the ’16 Vols going 5-of-14 at South Carolina.

A point I’m sure we’ll return to against Georgia: Tennessee’s worst two performances here are, no surprise, at Florida and at Alabama. In Gainesville the Vols came up empty on a 3rd-and-4 and a 3rd-and-6 in the first half. And, of course, had the back-breaking drop on 4th-and-5 at the Florida 30 in the third quarter.

In Tuscaloosa, there were actually far more opportunities lost: 3rd-and-1 on the opening drive, 3rd-and-1 after the fumble that led to consecutive false starts, 3rd-and-1 on the next drive in a tie game, 3rd-and-2 on the next drive. Then, following the blocked punt, the Vols had 3rd-and-5 at the Bama 10. And, of course, 4th-and-1 at their own 47 down 24-17 with four minutes to play in the fourth, when they elected not to go for it.

I don’t know if any improvements in third-and-short should be expected against Georgia, other than learning not to run into the teeth of the defense and hope for the best. But the Vols did a good job putting themselves in position to succeed.

At its peak, this offense does what it did to Missouri, and never even faces third down until they’re up 28-0. The more realistic picture is what it did to South Carolina: 12-of-17 on third down, in part because they did such a good job putting themselves in manageable situations. Can we see something like that at Kentucky, currently 51st in third down defense vs FBS foes?

Of course, speaking of defense: Tennessee is 122nd in this department, giving up 48.76% on third down vs FBS foes. Alabama was a brutal 15-of-20.

Again, pace: in regulation vs power five, the only Tennessee games of the post-Fulmer era to even feature 20 third down attempts are:

• 2021 Alabama (15-of-20)
• 2021 Ole Miss (11-of-21)
• 2021 Pittsburgh (8-of-20)
• 2016 Missouri (11-of-20 vs Heupel)
• 2014 Florida (7-of-20; 16 total punts in this game)
• 2014 Ole Miss (7-of-20; 18 total punts in this game)

So yeah, don’t let Bama convert 75% on third down. But the only way you even approach this number of conversions is to play at this pace, or be so poor offensively everybody gets more turns.

Consider though: the Vol defense made a stop on third down 10 times against the Rebels, and a dozen times against Pittsburgh. These are the kind of numbers we’ll need to see at Kentucky, currently 27th nationally in third down conversions vs FBS. That figure includes abysmal performances against Florida (1-of-9) and LSU (2-of-7), even in victory. They were much more manageable against Georgia with nine conversions, but on 19 attempts.

The Vols are close enough to be interesting against the most talented teams on their schedule, and a genuine toss-up with the kind of opponent Kentucky appears to be. Whether it’s beating the Cats or staying close with Georgia, third downs will be of great importance on both sides of the ball. The bye week is great, but protecting a defense that’s simply on the field far too often will still be an issue the next two weeks. The margins are thin, but the opportunities are there. It feels strange to say with so many more plays per game, but I feel like third downs have never meant more.

The final third of the season features the Vols against #1, chances to get wins five and six, and a trip to #12 Kentucky that should make the difference between six and seven. The questions this week then:

• Do you give the Vols a better chance against Georgia than you did against Alabama?
• How are we feeling about Kentucky?

One of the plays I remember most from the 2016 win over Florida happened early, not late. That game still stands as the “best win in Neyland since ________”, with plenty to celebrate. But anxiety was the keyword on the front end after the Vols struggled with Appalachian State, then again with Ohio in a 28-19 win the week before. The offensive line was banged up and hadn’t played well, making Josh Dobbs vulnerable and a downfield passing game sporadic. Florida’s #BDN had 16 sacks in the first three games, with a noisy secondary making every pass play seem like an adventure.

With the Vols down 7-0 but driving, Florida brought pressure. Tennessee picked it up initially, but it became clear Dobbs was in trouble. And a woman sitting on the row in front of us – feeling, like all of us, some of that same pressure – just let out a blood-curdling scream right before Dobbs was sacked.

That Saturday, despite all the pressure, turned out alright. But there have been others in the last 13+ years where a banged up offensive line made you genuinely fear for the safety of your quarterback. It happened not once, but twice to Justin Worley: knocked out of the Alabama game in 2013, knocked out of the Ole Miss game in 2014 on one of their seven sacks.

Hendon Hooker is day-to-day like the rest of us. The assumption is Tennessee’s offense will be something more like questionable or doubtful if he doesn’t play. Meanwhile, the Vol offensive line may be without at least one of the Brothers Mays. And yeah, it’s Bama.

It’s interesting to see and hear Josh Heupel this week, juxtaposed with some of the local media and Tennessee fans. We’ve lost to Alabama for 14 years now, with only two of them a one-possession game. The line opened at +29, but I’m seeing it at +24.5 some places this morning. In our last two trips to Tuscaloosa, the Vols were +34.5 (2019) and +36.5 (2017).

Progress against these guys is more measured. For instance, if the Vols kept it to just three possessions? That would be just the fourth time in the last dozen tries.

Fans know this drill: despite the significant rise in the quality of football the Vols are playing this year, we give UT only a 6.7% chance of victory Saturday night in our expected win total machine. For the season, our expected win totals hover in that tempting space between six and seven wins:

So it makes sense that much of the fan and local media conversation this week has been some form of, “Rest your guys, take the bye week, get healthy and take your shot at #15 Kentucky.”

It’s refreshing to hear Heupel talk about this rivalry as if he hasn’t had the life beaten out of him yet. So, if Hooker does play, how can we keep this thing out of admirable, but mistaken territory?

Because, of course, the one thing Tennessee hasn’t done well, in all their vast improvement? Protect the quarterback.

The Vols are surrendering 3.57 sacks per game, 120th nationally. It cost them late against Ole Miss, and has cost them often this season. It’s easy to assume this too is a stat inflated by how fast the Vols play, and how many snaps we get per game. But Tennessee is still running the ball 63.9% of the time. Against FBS competition via Team Rankings, the Vols run it 61.6% of the time, the 18th highest percentage nationally.

And against FBS competition, the Vols give up a sack on 12.64% of their dropbacks. That’s 124th nationally. By contrast, that number was 9.24% last season. A 10.53% sack percentage in 2017 is the worst number on record for the Vols with data going back through 2002.

That old saying about three things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad? Well, those two things ain’t happening much this year: Hendon Hooker has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio, one of just 11 quarterbacks in the nation to throw less than two interceptions in 100+ passing attempts. And his overall completion percentage of 68.8% is 15th nationally.

The famine comes from getting the quarterback hit, and the Vols are giving up more sacks per dropback than ever before. Alabama’s defense isn’t quite as high on the sack list as Pitt’s or Ole Miss’s. But you’d better believe the Tide will be coming.

If Hooker can go, there’s a lot I’m excited to see in this matchup. What, indeed, can Heupel’s offense do against a Bama defense? Can Tennessee’s own defense, the surprise story of our season, make a difference against the Bama offense? Can the Vols actually stay in this game, much the way they did at Florida, and keep it interesting?

Tennessee’s ability to do so – and to keep the positive projection of their season alive – will again depend a lot on how well they can protect their quarterback, especially this quarterback, especially this Saturday.

Go Vols.

Whatever you want to talk about from Saturday night, the most important piece of information from Monday afternoon is:

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said QB Hendon Hooker, RB Tiyon Evans and OL Cade Mays are day to day.

Heupel said he doesn’t think Hooker’s injury will be a long-term issue.

— Josh Ward (@Josh_Ward) October 18, 2021

And thus, Week 8 of the Expected Win Total Machine rides on (slightly) steadier legs:

The Vols opened at +29 against Alabama, which is down to +27.5 on Monday afternoon. Before the South Carolina win (and Bama’s loss to A&M), our expected win percentage in this one hovered around 6%. It went up to 13% last week. We’ve had plenty of years of, “I’m putting 0% for this game.” How are we feeling this week?