Whatever you want to talk about from Saturday night, the most important piece of information from Monday afternoon is:
And thus, Week 8 of the Expected Win Total Machine rides on (slightly) steadier legs:
The Vols opened at +29 against Alabama, which is down to +27.5 on Monday afternoon. Before the South Carolina win (and Bama’s loss to A&M), our expected win percentage in this one hovered around 6%. It went up to 13% last week. We’ve had plenty of years of, “I’m putting 0% for this game.” How are we feeling this week?
A tantalizing 6.5 from me – whatever happens this week, this includes the assumption that Hendon will play against UK/UGA.
at Alabama: 7%
at Kentucky: 40%
vs Georgia: 17%
vs South Alabama: 92%
vs Vanderbilt: 92%
So what we have left is basically two “near-lock” wins, two “near-lock” losses…and a (more or less) 50/50 game.
6.3 total
at Alabama: 3%
at Kentucky: 40%
vs Georgia: 8%
vs South Alabama: 90%
vs Vanderbilt: 90%
I’ll probably feel much better if we definitely get some guys back healthy over the BYE.
Team “Yeah, we’re probably going 6-6” here checking in with 6.2 wins.
at Alabama: 2%
at Kentucky: 33%
vs Georgia: 2%
vs South Alabama: 90%
vs Vanderbilt: 90%
Down slightly versus last week. Assumes Hooker is back for Kentucky, otherwise things get a little dicey from here on out. Go Vols!
Your expected win total is 6.4.
Your details:
at Bowling Green: 100%
vs Pittsburgh: %
vs Tennessee Tech: 100%
at Florida: %
at Missouri: 100%
vs South Carolina: 100%
vs Mississippi: %
at Alabama: 0%
at Kentucky: 40%
vs Georgia: 0%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%
6.8
at Alabama: 15%
at Kentucky: 50%
vs Georgia: 25%
vs South Alabama: 95%
vs Vanderbilt: 90%
I think injuries are the biggest danger for this team going forward.
Your expected win total is 6.1.
at Alabama: 1%
at Kentucky: 30%
vs Georgia: 5%
vs South Alabama: 90%
vs Vanderbilt: 85%
Your expected win total is 6.4.
Your details:
at Alabama: 10%
at Kentucky: 40%
vs Georgia: 5%
vs South Alabama: 95%
vs Vanderbilt: 90%
Your expected win total is 6.5. Your details: at Bowling Green: 100% vs Pittsburgh: % vs Tennessee Tech: 100% at Florida: % at Missouri: 100% vs South Carolina: 100% vs Mississippi: % at Alabama: 5% at Kentucky: 50% vs Georgia: 3% vs South Alabama: 95% vs Vanderbilt: 98% For comparison’s sake, here is my preseason outlook: Your expected win total is 5.0. Your details: at Bowling Green: 80% vs Pittsburgh: 40% vs Tennessee Tech: 80% at Florida: 5% at Missouri: 30% vs South Carolina: 50% vs Mississippi: 15% at Alabama: 0% at Kentucky: 20% vs Georgia: 5% vs South Alabama: 85% vs… Read more »
I’m at 6.6
at Alabama: 2%
at Kentucky: 60%
vs Georgia: 6%
vs South Alabama: 98%
vs Vanderbilt: 95%
With injuries, I am really close to 0% for Bama. I have been impressed enough by 3 weeks in a row of competence-plus to move UK up from a 50-50 game. I have a good feeling about it. I think we have a better shot against Georgia than Bama because we could have more health across the roster after our bye week and should hopefully have a better shot of Hendon playing in that game than this week.
Your expected win total is 6.6.
Your detail:
at Alabama: 1%
at Kentucky: 54%
vs Georgia: 1%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%
My biggest hope is no injuries against Bama and that we get healthier during the bye week.
We will beat Vandy and South Alabama. And we will beat our bowl opponent.
Since I do not accept defeat (or talk about it), I will stop here.
I’m basing this on a healthy team starting with Kentucky. Somehow up a little from last week. I must be the most hopeful fool on here 😀
Your expected win total is 7.0.
Your details:
at Alabama: 20%
at Kentucky: 50%
vs Georgia: 30%
vs South Alabama: 99%
vs Vanderbilt: 99%