Expected Win Total Machine: Hendon Hooker Day-to-Day Edition

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Whatever you want to talk about from Saturday night, the most important piece of information from Monday afternoon is:

And thus, Week 8 of the Expected Win Total Machine rides on (slightly) steadier legs:

The Vols opened at +29 against Alabama, which is down to +27.5 on Monday afternoon. Before the South Carolina win (and Bama’s loss to A&M), our expected win percentage in this one hovered around 6%. It went up to 13% last week. We’ve had plenty of years of, “I’m putting 0% for this game.” How are we feeling this week?

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SpeedyWillie
SpeedyWillie
1 month ago

So what we have left is basically two “near-lock” wins, two “near-lock” losses…and a (more or less) 50/50 game.

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 month ago

6.3 total

at Alabama: 3%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 8%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

I’ll probably feel much better if we definitely get some guys back healthy over the BYE.

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
1 month ago

Team “Yeah, we’re probably going 6-6” here checking in with 6.2 wins.

at Alabama: 2%

at Kentucky: 33%

vs Georgia: 2%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Last edited 1 month ago by Gavin Driskill
Harley
Harley
1 month ago

Down slightly versus last week. Assumes Hooker is back for Kentucky, otherwise things get a little dicey from here on out. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 6.4.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: %

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

Alyas Grey
Alyas Grey
1 month ago

6.8

at Alabama: 15%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 25%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

OKVol
OKVol
1 month ago

I think injuries are the biggest danger for this team going forward.

Your expected win total is 6.1.

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 30%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 85%

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.4.

Your details:

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Last edited 1 month ago by Jayyyy
HT
HT
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.5.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: %

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 3%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

For comparison’s sake, here is my preseason outlook:

Your expected win total is 5.0.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 80%

vs Pittsburgh: 40%

vs Tennessee Tech: 80%

at Florida: 5%

at Missouri: 30%

vs South Carolina: 50%

vs Mississippi: 15%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 20%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 85%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

This team has obviously outplayed my expectations any way you look at it.

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 month ago

I’m at 6.6

at Alabama: 2%

at Kentucky: 60%

vs Georgia: 6%

vs South Alabama: 98%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

With injuries, I am really close to 0% for Bama. I have been impressed enough by 3 weeks in a row of competence-plus to move UK up from a 50-50 game. I have a good feeling about it. I think we have a better shot against Georgia than Bama because we could have more health across the roster after our bye week and should hopefully have a better shot of Hendon playing in that game than this week.

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.6.
Your detail:
at Alabama: 1%
at Kentucky: 54%
vs Georgia: 1%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%

My biggest hope is no injuries against Bama and that we get healthier during the bye week.

memphispete
memphispete
1 month ago

We will beat Vandy and South Alabama. And we will beat our bowl opponent.

Since I do not accept defeat (or talk about it), I will stop here.

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
1 month ago

I’m basing this on a healthy team starting with Kentucky. Somehow up a little from last week. I must be the most hopeful fool on here 😀

Your expected win total is 7.0.

Your details:

at Alabama: 20%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 30%

vs South Alabama: 99%

vs Vanderbilt: 99%

Last edited 1 month ago by SmokeyX