The math gets really easy at this point, and you don’t need a machine to tell you that you expect only one more win this football season — at the most. But is your mind thinking exactly one more win, or a little more or less than one more win? Let’s have a quick look and register our expectations as a community with the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7 AUB -15.7 AUB -21.9
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21 TN -24 TN -18.7 TN -16.3
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8 FL -24.9 FL -30.8 FL -33.7
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7 TAMU -29.8 TAMU -27.2 TAMU -29.2

Yep. One win.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is 2.8.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
  • After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
  • After the bye week: 4.0
  • After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
  • After the A&M postponement bye: 2.95

Details: I kept everything where it was last week: Florida at 5%, Texas A&M at 15%, and Vanderbilt at 60%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5, 5th in the SEC East

The Auburn game was about what I expected result-wise, but I thought the team actually played better (except for the mistakes). If they can quit making mistakes, I feel better about them. But can they? And how much would it even matter against Florida and Texas A&M? I’m giving them a slight bump.

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-7, 7th in the SEC East

You probably can’t tell from that score, but Vandy hung with Florida pretty good for much of the game. But really only enough to offset my slight bump for the Vols, so I’m keeping this game at 60%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1, 1st in the SEC East

See above. The Gators stuggled a bit against Vanderbilt, but they won’t do that against Tennessee. It’s some universal law or something. I’m keeping this one at 5%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 5-1, 2nd in the SEC West

These guys haven’t played a game since November 7, but their only loss is to Alabama, and all they have left is LSU, Auburn, us, and maybe Ole Miss if they can get it rescheduled. They’re a good team with a favorable schedule, and I’m keeping this one at 15%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-6, 6th in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Georgia

Current record: 5-2, 2nd in the SEC East

Hmm. Struggled against Mississippi State? Interesting.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-5, 4th in the SEC East

Kentucky got absolutely rolled by the Tide this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0, 1st in the SEC West

See Kentucky above. Looking like they’re going to roll right into another championship.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 3-5, 6th in the SEC West

The Hogs almost got LSU this week, but they didn’t, and some of the shine is fading.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.