How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 10 college football TV schedule

The Vols kick off against Arkansas this Saturday at 7:30 on the SEC Network, but don’t miss the Cocktail Party at 3:30 on CBS between SEC East foes Florida and Georgia. And if you can figure out how to be in two places at the same time, there’s also a huge game between No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame on NBC at the same time as the Vols play the Hogs.

Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. First up is a list curated just for Vols fans. The full searchable schedule for the entire week is at the bottom of the post.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Ohio Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

There are six (!) games scheduled for Wednesday night this week. ESPN thinks Ohio-Central Michigan is the best of the bunch. Okay.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Utah State Nevada 7:00 PM FS1 Live It's football

Sideways eyes.

Friday, November 6, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
#12 Miami NC State 7:30 PM ESPN Live Top 15 team
#11 BYU #25 Boise State 9:45 PM FS1 Live Top 25 matchup

Well, hey. A Friday night with not one, but two potentially good games. I’m in.

Gameday, November 7, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#13 Michigan #17 Indiana 12:00 PM FS1 Live Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
#10 Florida #5 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Live Top 10 SEC East matchup
Vanderbilt Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN DVR/ignore Future Vols' opponent
EVENING
Tennessee Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN Live GO VOLS!
#8 Texas A&M South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN DVR Next Vols' opponent
#1 Clemson #4 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC DVR/Check in Top 5 ACC matchup

The Vols’ game against Arkansas is on the SEC Network at 7:30 this Saturday opposite the national headliner of No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame on NBC. Also on in the same time slot is Tennessee’s next opponent, Texas A&M, at 7:00 on ESPN. DVR that one for scouting after the Vols-Hogs game.

Warm up for the Vols game with a noon game featuring Top 25 teams Michigan and Indiana on FS1 and then the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party During a Pandemic when No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Florida square off. That one kicks at 3:30 on CBS. You can also get a look at Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network. If you care.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

11/4/20 Eastern Michigan Kent State 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/4/20 Western Michigan Akron 6:00 PM ESPN3
11/4/20 Buffalo Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/4/20 Ohio Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN
11/4/20 Ball State Miami (OH) 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/4/20 Bowling Green Toledo 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/5/20 Utah State Nevada 7:00 PM FS1
11/5/20 Wyoming Colorado State 9:00 PM CBSSN
11/6/20 #12 Miami NC State 7:30 PM ESPN
11/6/20 San José State San Diego State 9:00 PM CBSSN
11/6/20 #11 BYU #25 Boise State 9:45 PM FS1
11/7/20 Rutgers #3 Ohio State 7:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 #6 Oklahoma State #16 Kansas State 4:00 PM FOX
11/7/20 #13 Michigan #17 Indiana 12:00 PM FS1
11/7/20 Maryland #18 Penn State 3:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 Baylor #23 Iowa State 7:00 PM FS1
11/7/20 Nebraska Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/7/20 Minnesota Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/7/20 Air Force Army 11:30 AM CBS
11/7/20 #15 North Carolina Duke 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 Arizona State #21 USC 12:00 PM FOX
11/7/20 #22 SMU Temple 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 South Florida Memphis 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Tulane East Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Tulsa Navy 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 Michigan State Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN
11/7/20 West Virginia Texas 12:00 PM ABC
11/7/20 UL Monroe Georgia State 12:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Liberty Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Arkansas State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Troy Georgia Southern 1:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Boston College Syracuse 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 UMass #19 Marshall 2:30 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 North Alabama Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Appalachian State Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 #10 Florida #5 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
11/7/20 Houston #7 Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPN
11/7/20 Purdue #9 Wisconsin CANCELED
11/7/20 Kansas #24 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 UTSA Rice 3:30 PM ESPN3
11/7/20 Charlotte Middle Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/7/20 Texas Tech TCU 3:30 PM
11/7/20 Fresno State UNLV 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 Arizona Utah 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
11/7/20 Florida International UTEP CANCELED
11/7/20 Pittsburgh Florida State 4:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
11/7/20 #8 Texas A&M South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN
11/7/20 Louisiana Tech North Texas 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/7/20 UCLA Colorado 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/20 #1 Clemson #4 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
11/7/20 Stanford #14 Oregon 7:30 PM ABC
11/7/20 Tennessee Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
11/7/20 South Alabama #20 Coastal Carolina 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/7/20 Louisville Virginia 8:00 PM ACCN
11/7/20 Washington State Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
11/7/20 Washington California 10:30 PM ESPN
11/7/20 New Mexico Hawai'i 11:00 PM
Date Away Home Time TV

Tennessee-Arkansas: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Conclusions: SAFETY FIRST! Run the ball, defend the pass, be careful on third down because a punt is a good play.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Currently, Tennessee’s offense does not appear to have any advantage over Arkansas’ defense. However, there do appear to be a couple of areas that look even. The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t as good as we’d hoped yet this season, but the Razorbacks aren’t especially good defending the run, either. The two units also appear to be about even on first down.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s offense is still not good at all at converting third downs, and Arkansas’ defense is quite good at getting off the field on third downs. The Hogs are also really good against the pass in all facets, including generating turnovers in the passing game.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Based on these numbers, Tennessee’s best bet is to run the ball. It’s the most even matchup, and it avoids what appears to be a significant advantage for the Hogs in the passing game. The Vols are going to have to be effective enough on first and second down that running is an option on third.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Tennessee appears to have the advantage when the Vols are on defense, particularly against the run. They could also have some success in pressuring the quarterback and generating sacks.

Where’s the danger?

The Arkansas offense appears to have an advantage in the passing game, as the Vols are generally struggling to defend the pass and the Hogs are better at that than they are running the ball.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Shut down the run, but also devote extra resources and preparation time to defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback on pass plays.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have several advantages on special teams, particularly in all facets of the punt game. So, safety on third down and living to punt on fourth down is a good play.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Arkansas is a turnover machine, and they are disciplined from a penalties perspective as well. Ball security first!

Read: Now for the second half of the season

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from the Times Free Press:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Jeremy Pruitt looks like a position coach during Vols’ open week, via the Times Free Press
  2. Barnes: ‘No sense of entitlement’ for Vols’ five-star freshmen, via 247Sports
  3. Vols’ Vescovi vows to be better defender as slimmer sophomore, via 247Sports
  4. Rick Barnes Media Availability Video and Transcript, via UTSports
  5. Santiago Vescovi Media Availability Transcript and Video, via UTSports
  6. Crouch Finds Peace in Plan From Faith, via UTSports
  7. 2020 GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Update your expectations after the bye, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  8. Expected Win Total Analysis: After the bye week, via Gameday on Rocky Top

Behind the paywalls

  • Comparing the Jeremy Pruitt era at Tennessee vs. Butch Jones – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Tennessee Vols at midseason: Is another rally ahead? – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Five keys to a Tennessee turnaround in second half of the season, via 247Sports

Expected Win Total Analysis: After the bye week

With pretty much every future Vols’ opponent but Vanderbilt looking better during Tennessee’s bye week, the weekly reassessment of expected win totals is not a happy exercise. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

I did not dream of Nick Saban showing me up on the cornet in front of the other band nerds last night. So there’s that.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8

Well, the good news is that the Vandy game looks the same and that the Arkansas game is back to a toss-up. The bad news is . . . every other game looks worse this morning, which sounds about right.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.0.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
  • After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
  • After the bye week: 4.0

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Auburn at 25% (big mover this week), Texas A&M at 35% (down from 40%), Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, nothing new to analyze for the Vols this bye week so any adjustments to expectations will come from the results of other games.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC West

Hmm. A tough one right out of the gate. A&M looked really good, but so did Arkansas at times, and an 11-point loss to a team ranked No. 8 in the nation is nothing to be ashamed of. I had this game at 50% last week, and although the Hogs looked good, I’m sticking with that, largely because the SPM is also calling this one a toss-up. 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 4-1, 2nd in the SEC West

As I said, A&M looked good, and they looked good against an Arkansas team that didn’t look bad. I had this one at 40% last week, and although that seems maybe kinda right, I’m actually going to move it to 35% until I see some improvement from the Vols. 35%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Yikes. After getting quite lucky in a couple of games this season, Auburn made LSU look terrible and clobbered them 48-11. LSU has problems, I know, but you can’t watch that game and not think Auburn’s going to be more of a challenge than you thought last week. So, I’m moving this one from 45% to 25%, which makes me weepy.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-4, 7th in the SEC East

No news here, as the Commodores got blown out by Ole Miss, 54-21. Keeping this game at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Well, crud. It appears that the Gators made good use of their double bye week to patch a leaky defense. Great. If this game wasn’t already at 10%, I’d change it. As it is, though, I’m keeping it at 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

The Gamecocks were off this week as well. But just try to make sense of that resume. A loss to Tennessee, a win over Auburn, a blow-out loss to LSU, which just got blown out by Auburn. This kind of chaos might actually be good news for the Vols, as it suggests that most any team can beat (or lose to) any team any given week (Alabama excluded, naturally). Or it could mean that early season results mean little during a pandemic.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, chaos. A loss to Tennessee. A win over Kentucky, who beat Tennessee. A blow-out loss to Florida, which may say more about Florida than anything else, but who really knows? Trying to draw conclusions about Tennessee from that loss or from that resume generally is a fool’s errand.

Georgia

Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East

Due to the idea that general chaos renders any confidence about such things imprudent, I’ll just ask a question: Is Georgia’s offense perhaps struggling as much as maybe we thought it might (except against Tennessee and a brand-spanking-new Arkansas team), or is Kentucky’s defense just really good?

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-4, 6th in the SEC East

See Georgia above. I think Kentucky is better than its schedule will allow the Wildcats to show. Which could be good news for the Vols, as they need an extra win to erase a tiebreaker with Kentucky.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West

Who hates these guys?

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

Boro wvvol wins Week 9 of the 2020 GRT Pick ‘Em; birdjam remains in the lead for the season

Congratulations to boro wvvol, who finished first in Week 9 of the 2020 GRT Pick ‘Em with a record of 14-5 and 156 confidence points.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 boro wvvol 14-5 156 14-21
2 Neil 15-4 153 21-40
3 DinnerJacket 14-5 152 24-28**
3 tmfountain14 14-5 152 21-17
5 BlountVols 12-7 146 21-28
6 MariettaVol1 12-7 143 22-44
7 Will Shelton 14-5 142 35-38**
7 Timbuktu126 14-5 142 11-27
9 birdjam 14-5 141 14-24**
9 keeps corn in a jar 12-7 141 35-21
11 Krusher 13-6 140 21-45**
11 Hjohn 13-6 140 30-31
11 jfarrar90 13-6 140 20-27
14 Anaconda 13-6 139 21-34**
14 spartans100 11-8 139 24-31
14 cnyvol 13-6 139 23-30
14 Raven17 12-7 139 31-28
14 ChuckieTVol 13-6 139 0-0
19 Jayyyy 10-9 138 21-35**
19 patmd 14-5 138 17-34
21 PAVolFan 13-6 137 20-28**
21 TennRebel 12-7 137 20-27
23 GeorgeMonkey 13-6 136 20-34**
23 Tennmark 13-6 136 14-31
25 volfan28 13-6 135 17-31
26 ga26engr 12-7 134 27-32**
26 Jahiegel 12-7 134 21-33
26 Knottfair 13-6 134 21-31
26 PensacolaVolFan 12-7 134 20-30
26 ltvol99 12-7 134 17-31
26 crafdog 14-5 134 17-27
32 LuckyGuess 11-8 133 20-31
33 joeb_1 11-8 131 27-30
34 Bulldog 85 12-7 129 24-30**
34 Joel @ GRT 12-7 129 25-29
36 tcarroll90 13-6 128 17-31
37 C_hawkfan 13-6 126 21-30**
37 ddayvolsfan 12-7 126 21-24
39 Hunters Horrible Picks 11-8 123 20-21
40 rollervol 7-12 61 27-24
41 Fowler877 0-19 60 0-0**
41 memphispete 0-19 60 -
41 Jackson Irwin 0-19 60 -
41 ctull 0-19 60 -
41 TennVol95 in 3D! 0-19 60 -
41 shensle6 0-19 60 -
41 OriginalVol1814 0-19 60 -
41 HOTTUB 0-19 60 -
41 GasMan 0-19 60 -
41 vols95 0-19 60 -
41 Wilk21 0-19 60 -
41 HUTCH 0-19 60 -
41 ed75 0-19 60 -
41 Picks of Someone 0-19 60 -
41 rsbrooks25 0-19 60 -
41 Rossboro 0-19 60 -

Season Standings

Birdjam still remains in the lead for the season with 952 points and a record of 97-39. Here’s the full list:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 birdjam 97-39 71.32 952
2 Anaconda 91-45 66.91 945
3 LuckyGuess 91-45 66.91 936
4 PAVolFan 93-43 68.38 933
5 BlountVols 93-43 68.38 930
5 jfarrar90 90-46 66.18 930
7 crafdog 98-38 72.06 928
8 GeorgeMonkey 91-45 66.91 923
9 Jahiegel 86-50 63.24 918
10 spartans100 91-45 66.91 916
11 Jayyyy 78-58 57.35 915
11 ChuckieTVol 87-49 63.97 915
13 keeps corn in a jar 84-52 61.76 913
14 joeb_1 83-53 61.03 912
15 TennRebel 86-50 63.24 908
16 Hjohn 89-47 65.44 904
16 tmfountain14 87-49 63.97 904
18 Bulldog 85 85-51 62.50 902
19 Krusher 89-47 65.44 901
20 Tennmark 82-54 60.29 898
20 Hunters Horrible Picks 88-48 64.71 898
22 MariettaVol1 79-57 58.09 894
23 Knottfair 87-49 63.97 887
23 Raven17 86-50 63.24 887
25 DinnerJacket 86-50 63.24 883
26 Joel @ GRT 86-50 63.24 882
26 cnyvol 81-55 59.56 882
28 boro wvvol 79-57 58.09 880
29 PensacolaVolFan 92-44 67.65 877
30 tcarroll90 80-56 58.82 855
30 Timbuktu126 88-48 64.71 855
32 ltvol99 87-49 63.97 848
33 Will Shelton 74-62 54.41 846
34 ga26engr 86-50 63.24 829
35 patmd 92-44 67.65 825
36 C_hawkfan 79-57 58.09 815
37 ddayvolsfan 87-49 63.97 770
38 rollervol 83-53 61.03 761
39 Neil 48-88 35.29 760
40 volfan28 78-58 57.35 731
41 vols95 46-90 33.82 645
42 Picks of Someone 46-90 33.82 642
43 HUTCH 18-118 13.24 566
44 Fowler877 30-106 22.06 550
45 memphispete 20-116 14.71 514
46 Wilk21 25-111 18.38 511
47 TennVol95 in 3D! 33-103 24.26 504
48 ed75 3-133 2.21 451
48 HOTTUB 3-133 2.21 451
48 ctull 3-133 2.21 451
51 Jackson Irwin 1-135 0.74 446
52 OriginalVol1814 0-136 0.00 442
52 shensle6 0-136 0.00 442
52 rsbrooks25 0-136 0.00 442
52 GasMan 0-136 0.00 442
56 Rossboro 0-136 0.00 202

2020 GRT picks: Week 9

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 20-24 (45.45%) overall, 7-14 (33.33%) (oof!) in Category 2, and 5-8 (38.46%) (oof!) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 89-97 (47.85%) in Category 1, 38-43 (46.91%) in Category 2, and 20-20 (50%) in Category 3. The SPM’s overall record for the week was the same (20-24; 45.45%) using the spreads that SP+ uses.

In the same games and using the same spreads, SP+ was one game better than the SPM, going 21-23 for the week. Connelly’s official results: 20-24 (45.45%) for the week and 96-89-2 (51.89%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 9 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 9 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 7 Category 3 games (plus one more on each side that only barely didn’t make the cut) that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

2020 College Football TV Schedule: Week 9

The Vols get a bye this week, but there are still plenty of interesting games for Tennessee fans to watch this weekend. First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
South Alabama Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPN Live It's football

If it’s good enough for ESPN, it’s good enough for Vols fans, right? No?

Friday, October 30, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
Minnesota Maryland 7:30 PM ESPN Live It's football

Gameday, October 31, 2020

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Georgia Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN Live Two prior Vols' opponents
AFTERNOON
LSU Auburn 3:30 PM CBS Live Future Vols' opponent
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN Check-in Future Vols' opponent
EVENING
Mississippi State #2 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN Check in Prior Vols' opponent
#3 Ohio State #18 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC Check in Top 25 matchup
Arkansas #8 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Two future Vols' opponents
Missouri #10 Florida 7:30 PM SECN Alt Channel Hop/DVR Prior and future Vols' opponents

With the Vols off this week, it’s time to relax a little and focus on future and prior opponents. At noon, it’s a battle of priors as Kentucky takes on Georgia. Go ‘Cats?

LSU and future Vols’ opponent Auburn get the CBS 3:30 slot, and we also get a look at Vanderbilt as the Commodores play Ole Miss at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

The evening slate is full, as most of the country will be watching a Top 25 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State on ABC at 7:30. More important to Vols fans, though, is future opponents Arkansas and Texas A&M playing at 7:30 on the SEC Network with Florida and Missouri also playing at the same time on the SEC Alternate channel. And you can probably watch this one in your mind without seeing any of it, but Alabama also plays Mississippi State at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

10/29/20 South Alabama Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPN
10/29/20 Colorado State Fresno State 10:00 PM CBSSN
10/30/20 #19 Marshall Florida International 7:00 PM CBSSN
10/30/20 Minnesota Maryland 7:30 PM ESPN
10/30/20 East Carolina Tulsa 9:00 PM ESPN2
10/30/20 Hawai'i Wyoming 9:45 PM
10/31/20 Boston College #1 Clemson 12:00 PM ABC
10/31/20 #5 Georgia Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN
10/31/20 Memphis #7 Cincinnati 12:00 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Michigan State #13 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 #16 Kansas State West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 #20 Coastal Carolina Georgia State 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 #23 Iowa State Kansas 12:00 PM FS1
10/31/20 UTSA Florida Atlantic 12:00 PM
10/31/20 Temple Tulane 12:00 PM ESPN+
10/31/20 Purdue Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
10/31/20 Wake Forest Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 North Texas UTEP 2:00 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 UCF Houston 2:00 PM ESPN+
10/31/20 Rice Southern Mississippi 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 Troy Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 #4 Notre Dame Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ABC
10/31/20 #9 Wisconsin Nebraska 3:30 PM FS1
10/31/20 #17 Indiana Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
10/31/20 UAB Louisiana Tech 3:30 PM
10/31/20 TCU Baylor 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 LSU Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
10/31/20 Northwestern Iowa 3:30 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Texas #6 Oklahoma State 4:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 Ole Miss Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
10/31/20 Appalachian State UL Monroe 4:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 Virginia Tech Louisville 4:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 #25 Boise State Air Force 6:00 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 Mississippi State #2 Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Charlotte Duke 7:00 PM ESPN3
10/31/20 New Mexico San José State 7:00 PM FS1
10/31/20 #3 Ohio State #18 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC
10/31/20 Arkansas #8 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN
10/31/20 Missouri #10 Florida 7:30 PM SECN Alt
10/31/20 Navy #22 SMU 7:30 PM ESPN2
10/31/20 #15 North Carolina Virginia 8:00 PM ACCN
10/31/20 #24 Oklahoma Texas Tech 8:00 PM FOX
10/31/20 Louisiana Texas State 8:00 PM ESPNU
10/31/20 San Diego State Utah State 9:30 PM CBSSN
10/31/20 Western Kentucky #11 BYU 10:15 PM ESPN
10/31/20 Nevada UNLV 10:30 PM FS1

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – After Alabama

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Nope

Took a hit this week: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Currently needs improvement: Pretty much everything, but let’s start here: 3rd down conversion percentage, total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, passing yards per completion, rushing offense . . . you get the idea

Improved this week: Nope

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Took a hit this week: Total defense, which is to be expected after playing a historically good offense, and passing yards allowed. Also, pretty much everything else got worse as well, which again, is to be expected.

Improved this week: Nope

Currently needs improvement: As with the offense, it’s a long list, but should start with 3rd down conversion percentage defense (and a host of other stuff)

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Punt return defense went from No. 2 to No. 18; net punting fell again, this time from No. 24 to No. 31.

Improved this week: Nope

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense, again

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Major downward trends this week in these categories are fewest penalties, fewest penalties per game, and fumbles lost.

Improved this week: Nope

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers

Expected Win Total Analysis: After Alabama

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Alabama on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

But first, a diversion: I dreamed last night that I was in a sort of marching band. Not odd yet, as I was Marching Band Nerd Royalty for a time in my small high school in rural Illinois.

The odd stuff begins with the fact that our marching routine included following these weird patterns on the ground. It was kind of like the Yellow Brick Road, but not yellow. Or brick, really, but more brick-ish. Anyway, I was feeling bad because I got lost following some blue shape in circles while everyone else knew what they were doing.

But more weird: Nick Saban was our instructor, and he was pissed at me. So, feeling like a miserable failure, I tried to line up for the next exercise and, as can only happen in dreams, I ended up at the back of a school bus holding a cornet (it’s like a smaller trumpet.) Saban’s standing next to me. Everybody’s watching. Saban looks at me with disdain (or maybe it’s his regular expession — who knows, right? And, of course, he says, “Give me that. I bet I can play that better than you.”

Dude doesn’t even bother to sanitize the mouthpiece. (Like we’re not in a pandemic!) Saban plays Oh, Delta Dawn perfectly and hands my cornet back to me with a smug expression. I don’t even know whether I am capable of playing Delta Dawn in my dream, but I’m embarrassed regardless.

Getting shown up by Nick Saban on the cornet in a dream feels roughly the same as getting shown up by him on the football field in real life. Worse, I’ve been singing Oh, Delta Dawn most of the day. Why couldn’t it have been something by Bon Jovi or Journey or something?

Anyway . . .

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Opponent Preseason W7 W8 W9
SC TN -21.9
MO TN -10.1
GA GA -26.2
KY KY -.7
AL AL -27.9 AL -25.1
AR TN -14.1 AR -.2 AR -4.1 TN -.5
TAMU TAMU -6.4 TN -1 TAMU -3.7 TAMU -9.7
AUB AUB -9.6 AUB -4.8 AUB -6.9 AUB -18.7
VAN TN -9.4 TN -21 TN -21.2 TN -21
FL FL -22.8 FL -13.6 FL -14.4 FL -21.8

Yes, the SPM is currently favoring the Vols in only one more game this year.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 5.4
  • After beating South Carolina: 5.8
  • After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
  • After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
  • After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
  • After the loss to Alabama: 4.25

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (no longer at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

The pre-game facts: Vegas thought Tennessee would lose to Alabama by 21. SP+ thought they’d lose by 18.5, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thought they’d lose by 25. The Vols lost by 31. The facts always seems worse when accompanied by emotions, but objectively speaking, what we saw on Saturday isn’t really much different from what we expected. So for me, Saturday’s result had some impact on how I feel but little to no impact on my expectations going forward.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-2, 4th in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still a toss up at 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still at 40%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Auburn’s 7-point win over Ole Miss was actually closer than it seemed. No real change in my opinion of Auburn this week, and I’m keeping this game at 45%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

Off. No change. Still at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Off. No change. 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

Hmm. A blow-out loss to a struggling LSU team might have me thinking less of Tennessee’s win over the Gamecocks. For now, though, no. At least not yet.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

Oh, boy. What do we do when a team that we beat by 23 beats a team that beat us by 27 by 10? Shake our heads and conclude that an All-SEC schedule in 2020 is going to produce results like that.

Georgia

Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East

Off. No change.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

See Missouri above. Shrug.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0, 1st in the SEC West

Huh. When you look at the rest of Alabama’s resume, you might feel a bit better. We didn’t give up 63. We only scored one touchdown less than a couple of ranked teams. As good as Georgia is, they only gave up one fewer touchdown and scored one more. Alabama’s just good. End of story. Call it reaching if you want, but it’s the truth.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.