Gameday on Rocky Top

With the return of men’s basketball comes the return of the GRT Four Factors Gameplan. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of the Four Factors, you can read up on it here. It’s early in the season, so small sample sizes mean suspect conclusions, but here is the data we have so far and what it might mean for the game tomorrow against the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Vols have played only one game, and that after an extended break from practice due to pandemic-related stuff, but they do already have some to-dos. First, they need to shoot better from the field. They had a very poor night against Colorado, but really, they weren’t especially efficient much of last year, either. So I’d expect that getting good shots and knocking them down will be a priority tomorrow.

How might they do that? Solve the zone, which Colorado used effectively to slow down a Tennessee team that was threatening early to run away with it. The Vols should expect opponents to use the zone liberally until they find an effective counter.

Third, they need to kibosh the turnovers. This was a real problem last year and continued in the first game this year.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Cincinnati game tomorrow by knowing what to watch for:

1. Once Cincinnati goes to a zone defense, watch the Vols closely. Expect them to try to get the ball into the middle of the zone, and this time, knock down those mid-range jumpers. Going to the bucket and drawing fouls could work, too.
2. Limit the turnovers. This was (ahem) epidemic last year, and it’s time for a vaccine already. They don’t need to be the best in the nation at protecting the ball, but they need to stop being one of the worst. Ten to twelve per game would be much better than 15.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Cincinnati 63, which translates into a 74% chance of winning.

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Baseline

First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

The Vols’ shooting percentage from the field was terrible in the first game and was hopefully an aberration. Its defense was not and was hopefully a sign of things to come.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Bearcats are shooting well so far; the Vols are not.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ditto turnovers. One game does not a pattern make, but this was a problem for Tennessee last year, and it’s worth keeping a wary eye on.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Good news here, as Tennessee’s out of the 2020 gate with a decent offensive rebound percentage and tomorrow will be going up against a Cincinnati team that was merely okay on the boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: I wonder if the zone defense that Colorado played most of the first game is responsible for limited free throw attempts. I suspect we’ll get an opportunity to find out, as teams would probably be wise to continue to play zone until Tennessee proves they have an effective counter.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shot poorly in the opener, but Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything to be overly concerned with, so let’s see what happens in the second game. And the Vols’ shooting defense figures to be really good this season and proved it in the first game. Expect the Bearcats to have trouble scoring.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols turned the ball over too much in the first game and could find out in its second whether the problem is them or the competition. They are, so far, exceptional at creating turnovers, although Cincinnati is (also so far; I’ll stop saying this now) not bad at protecting the ball.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

It appears that Cincinnati could make it difficult for the Vols to nab offensive rebounds. We’ll see. On the other side, they haven’t been terrific getting their own, but the Vols so far (I lied) haven’t been very effective on the defensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Perhaps getting to the free throw line will be easier for the Vols tomorrow. So far (!), they’re doing a fine job of defending without fouling.

Go Vols.

Opening the season with what we believe to be back-to-back bubble teams gives you a chance to learn about the #12 Vols at an accelerated rate. But this one in particular will help answer one of the biggest questions Tennessee faced coming into the year.

Last year the Vols went to Cincinnati coming off the loss to Memphis; Lamonte Turner was struggling but still playing. Tennessee shot 45% from the floor and 17-of-17 at the free throw line…and lost by 12. That’s because the Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor and a blistering 26-of-40 for 65% inside the arc. The last team to shoot better than that against the Vols from two was Wisconsin in Maui in November of 2016. And Cincinnati was +11 on the glass.

Tre Scott, with his 15 points in 38 minutes, is gone, as are the Cumberland brothers in the backcourt. Guard Keith Williams is back, and the Bearcats run a lot of their stuff through him. But the biggest challenge for Tennessee against this team returns: 7’1″ Chris Vogt, now joined by 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas, often on the floor at the same time.

Cincinnati is 2-1 with a loss to Xavier and wins over Lipscomb and Furman (#65 KenPom). And once again, they’re getting it done inside the arc (58.5%, 25th nationally) and keeping everyone off the offensive glass (13th nationally).

What will Tennessee do against this kind of size? And can the Vols rebound well enough to win?

The answer to the latter will look long and hard toward E.J. Anosike. The Vols didn’t rebound as well as Rick Barnes would’ve liked against Colorado (-6), but Anosike grabbed four offensive rebounds in 14 minutes. That Jarnell Stokes/Jeronne Maymon role we wanted to see if he could play looked good in the opener. Tennessee still got 10 rebounds from Yves Pons and the usual better-than-you-think rebounding from Josiah James with six boards. They will need all of that and more against this team, especially if shots aren’t falling again.

Defensively, Tennessee has made so much hay as a shot blocking team under Rick Barnes: fifth nationally in block percentage last year, 10th in 2019, and always in the Top 65 nationally even in the first two years when the Vols struggled. Last year the Vols blocked 7% of Cincinnati’s shots, half their normal average. When facing this kind of height at multiple positions, it’s hard for Pons to be everywhere and hard for anyone to be disruptive. The Vols created a different kind of havoc against Colorado, forcing a turnover on 35.7% of their possessions. It’s one game, but that’s currently second in the nation. The more you force turnovers, the fewer shots you need to block.

The Vols won’t see this kind of size often, but they will again if Kentucky continues to put 6’10” Isaiah Jackson and 7’0″ Olivier Sarr on the floor together. But Tennessee’s potential to be a better rebounding team will get a stiff test early. And as was the case with Colorado, non-conference performance will matter much more with smaller sample sizes due to the virus. The Vols are still trying to add one more game, but after this one our non-conference schedule features three teams hovering in the 200+ range in KenPom, then Kansas in January.

We’re still playing college football on Saturdays (which will become clear when you see the TV schedule), but check out the opportunities for the league in basketball tomorrow:

• Florida at #10 Florida State, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
• Mississippi State vs Dayton (Atlanta), 12:00 PM, ESPNews
• Notre Dame at Kentucky, 12:00 PM, CBS
• Cincinnati at #12 Tennessee, 12:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Texas A&M at TCU, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
• Auburn vs Memphis (Atlanta), 5:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Alabama vs Clemson (Atlanta), 7:30 PM, ACC Network
• #6 Illinois at Missouri, 8:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate

That’s a big spot for Cuozno’s team to help us all out.

The Vols can help themselves, and help us feel better about one of their few perceived weaknesses, by how they handle Cincinnati’s size tomorrow. Does Anosike get more minutes? Do the Vols again create so many turnovers it just doesn’t matter? Will the mid-range jumper be our friend this time?

See you at 12:30 tomorrow to find out.

Go Vols.

Almost nine months ago, the SEC Tournament was cancelled just before Tennessee and Alabama would’ve met in the quarterfinals. The Vols beat Missouri in football 66 days ago, which feels more or less the same as nine months ago.

The deep frustration with football can make it easy to forget to be grateful we got any sports at all this year. Basketball, in its sixth attempt for a season opener, reminded us of some of that today. And then for the first eight-and-a-half minutes, we got exactly what we wanted: the Vols jumped a good Colorado team 19-4, and not on the strength of their freshmen but their veterans.

The Buffaloes went to zone, and it worked, bogging everything down. But the Vols never relinquished the lead, and smothered Colorado throughout: the Buffaloes shot 33.3% from the field with 23 turnovers. Tennessee wasn’t much better, but they didn’t have to be in securing a 56-47 win in the season opener.

The first impressions:

Rick Barnes still loves the foul line jumper

Instead of the threes-and-frees game the NBA has become, Tennessee continues to generate a bunch of good looks in the mid-range. It’s not just something the Vols went to with Grant Williams to let him create: Tennessee got good looks from two from John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, and even E.J. Anosike. They did not go down easy: Pons was 1-of-9, Anosike 1-of-6, and Fulkerson came on late to finish 4-of-10. But they were there, seemingly by design again.

Meanwhile, the “who takes the threes,” question: Victor Bailey early, finishing 2-of-6. Jaden Springer late, with a pair of big shots in the second half. And Santiago Vescovi throughout, who hit 3-of-4. The Vols took 19 threes on the night, still finding their best looks inside the arc against the zone. Smallest sample size, of course, but we’ll see how many possessions go through the mid-range going forward.

The freshmen will earn trust

The vets started: Vescovi, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson, and Victor Bailey. I was curious if they’d finish, and it looked like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer would both give them a run for their money midway through the second half. Johnson had a couple of freshmen turnovers early and couldn’t get going, but made a pair of sensational defensive plays back-to-back, showing the excellent and unusual combination of tenacity and intelligence for a freshman. He added an alley-oop and a baseline jumper in the second half. But then he turned it over twice more, and exited the game at the under four. Jaden Springer turned it over immediately following, and the Vols went back to their starting five veteran lineup.

It worked: Colorado cut it to five with three to play, but the Vols responded with Fulkerson from the midrange. The defense drew a charge, then Josiah James created a turnover the next time down, and it was free throws from there.

When you only score 56, 10 combined points from your five-stars falls into context. I doubt Yves Pons is going to finish with two on 1-of-9 shooting very often, though he was a monster on the glass with 10 rebounds. But those guys will certainly get their chances…they’ll just have to earn them down the stretch by playing cleaner basketball along the way.

Early rotations & foul trouble

“Can they win if Fulkerson is in foul trouble,” is now 1-0. He picked up his third around 90 seconds into the second half, and though the Vols didn’t excel without him, they didn’t falter. Tennessee played a glorified nine-man rotation, with Uros Plavsic making a brief appearance in the first half. Otherwise it was what we thought: the veteran starters, two five stars, and Anosike, plus six minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua. Barnes was high on him early last season when Fulkerson was still establishing himself, and he got the game one vote of confidence as a bench piece.

Otherwise the Vols hit the numbers they wanted without going much over: the starting vets all played 30-35 minutes minus Fulkerson (23), Anosike played 14, Keon Johnson played 13, and Jaden Springer 9. Again, those last two numbers will increase as their turnover decrease, methinks.

It’s one game, but the Vols leapt into the Top 10 in KenPom defense at #7. Up next it’s Cincinnati on Saturday (12:30 PM before the Vols and Vandy at 4:00), in what could be another slugfest if it at all resembles last year’s game. There is a lot to improve on from tonight, but if defense is your most reliable tool in pandemic times, the Vols looked the part tonight.

1-0.

We would’ve taken the basketball Vols any way we could get them at this point: football struggling, five games cancelled, a shot at #1 Gonzaga lost. The fifth of those covid cancellations was UT-Martin, our in-state brethren a late replacement…and 334th in KenPom. Get well soon to the Skyhawks…but now, in their place, a much more interesting option has appeared.

hey wait is this about us https://t.co/dvooqkgauY

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) December 6, 2020

Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes live and die on the bubble: four NCAA Tournament appearances, two NIT’s and a CBI in his first eight years in Boulder. Those four trips to the big dance all landed between 8-11 on the seed list; they were 21-11 (10-8) and projected to be somewhere in there again when things got shut down in March.

Nevermind the usual preseason games that don’t exist this season: Colorado will give the Vols a much tougher test than they usually see in game one under Rick Barnes. Tennessee played Xavier in the opener in Cuonzo Martin’s last season and VCU in Donnie Tyndall’s opener. Since then, Tennessee has opened with UNC Asheville, Chattanooga, Presbyterian, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Asheville again. This is not a warm-up for Cincinnati on Saturday; the Buffaloes should present a similar challenge.

The loss of Gonzaga will sting on Selection Sunday. Tennessee still gets Kansas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, but the rest of our shortened non-conference schedule is now Colorado (KenPom #50), Cincinnati (#57), Appalachian State (#192), and a pair of cupcakes in Tennessee Tech (#321) and USC Upstate (#295). With a smaller sample size, it’ll be harder for the selection committee to differentiate between a good SEC team and a good Big East team, etc. Other than yet-to-play Tennessee and 2-0 Florida, conference heavyweights haven’t started clean: Kentucky lost to Richmond and Kansas, LSU lost to Saint Louis, Alabama was blown out by Stanford. For Tennessee, these opening games with Colorado and Cincinnati can go a long way in setting the opening tone.

@Vol_Hoops hastily scheduled game with @CUBuffsMBB was a good move for both teams. Such is life in the pandemic. Colorado PG McKinley Wright IV is one of the best in the country. Will Vols counter him with 2020 SEC Defensive POY Yves Pons, who can guard five positions?

— Chris Dortch (@cdortch) December 6, 2020

Wright was one of the best facilitators in the nation last season, both leading the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) and finishing 68th nationally in assist rate. He plays 35 minutes a night and started hot this year, getting 24 in Colorado’s 76-58 win at Kansas State. The Buffaloes have shown no ill effects from a five-game losing streak to end the 2019-20 campaign; they were 21-6 on February 22 before coming apart with an overtime loss to Utah and four others all by at least seven points.

The fun of the Pons potential – the “put him on the other team’s best player every night” scenario – is Wright goes just 6’0″. Last year Colorado also got double-figure scoring from 6’7″ Tyler Bey, a second round pick of the Dallas Mavericks. Now 6’8″ freshman Jabari Walker is off to a nice start, scoring 19 points with nine rebounds in just 32 minutes of work in the first two games. Like Tennessee, Colorado is heavy on seniors and freshmen: 6’6″ Maddox Daniels and 6’7″ Jeriah Horne join Wright as veterans, Keeshawn Barthelemy joins Walker as a freshman seeing significant action.

Boyle’s teams are usually defense-first and excel at taking away second chances. Last year the Buffaloes were 35th nationally in opponent threes attempted, but teams splashed 34.2% of those (234th nationally).

This leads to one of the most interesting questions about Tennessee: how many threes, and who takes them?

At their best two years ago, the Vols shot 36.7% from the arc, 63rd nationally, but finished just 324th in threes attempted. That offense could get what it wanted through great ball movement, a staple of Barnes’ teams here. Last year the Vols were 217th nationally in threes attempted.

The lineups will be fascinating to see by themselves. But in particular, who gets the green light to shoot, and if this thing tightens up late, who gets those looks? Last year Lamonte Turner took 4.3 threes per game while he played, and Jordan Bowden took 5.5. That’s a big chunk of the puzzle. Among returning players, Santiago Vescovi took 5.3, but that number leans a little to his initial minutes. Yves Pons took 2.8, and Josiah James took just over three.

If Vescovi is playing more of the true point guard role this year, how many does he shoot? What about the freshmen? What about Victor Bailey, rumored to be the best shooter on this team the moment he stepped foot in Knoxville?

There is no warm-up, and the outcomes will weigh more heavily in the final analysis than usual. It’s a big game, right away.

And we’re so happy to see you.

6:00 PM ET Tuesday, online at SEC Network+.

Go Vols.