How rare is what we’ll see at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday night?

In all the excitement of Tennessee’s hot start, we find ourselves asking not only if the Vols can win the SEC outright…but do so by such a margin that the quality of the rest of the league simply won’t matter. But before we get too far into the forest, a moment to appreciation this particular tree.

The Vols are up to #7 in this week’s AP poll, Missouri at #12, making this a Top 15 showdown. Tennessee played in six of these two years ago, including five Top 10 showdowns (all three games against Kentucky, plus Kansas and Gonzaga). So you’re forgiven if it feels a little normal.

But it is most definitely not: via in the media guide, in the last 20 seasons, the Vols have played in only 25 games when Tennessee and their opponent were both ranked in the Top 15:

• Six times in 2019
• A dozen for the Bruce Pearl era (2006-11)
• Seven times in 2000 and 2001

Before those last two Jerry Green seasons, you have to go all the way back to 1983 to find one. So yes, this is rare.

Five of those 25 games have come in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 20 to take place in the regular season, half have come against Kentucky (6) and Florida (4). To find an SEC Top 15 showdown involving Tennessee and someone other than the Cats and Gators, you’ve gotta go back all of those 20 years to the Vols and Auburn in 2000 (a 29-point Tennessee triumph in Knoxville).

So on multiple fronts, Wednesday night is a unique opportunity. The Vols and Tigers will do it again in Knoxville on January 23, one week before the Vols host #3 Kansas. So while there may be additional opportunities this season, there are no guarantees. Enjoy the moment, even if you have to stay up late to do so.

Tennessee’s history in those Top 15 showdowns:

2019

• #2 Kansas 87 #5 Tennessee 81 (OT) (Preseason NIT)
• #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
• #5 Kentucky 86 #1 Tennessee 69 (Lexington)
• #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 54 (Knoxville)
• #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament)
• #13 Purdue 99 #6 Tennessee 94 (OT) (Sweet Sixteen)

Hoo boy, was this a fun ride. While we obviously won’t be duplicating a triple threat Top 10 with Kentucky this season, in non-pandemic times, we would’ve had another shot at #1 Gonzaga plus #9 Wisconsin in the non-conference this year.

Bruce Pearl Era

• 2006: #10 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 72 (Gainesville)
• 2008: #15 Texas 97 #7 Tennessee 78 (Legends Classic)
• 2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)
• 2008: #5 Tennessee 76 #11 Butler 71 (OT) (Second Round)
• 2008: #13 Louisville 79 #5 Tennessee 60 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2009: #9 Gonzaga 83 #12 Tennessee 74 (Old Spice Classic)
• 2010: #6 Purdue 73 #9 Tennessee 72 (Paradise Jam)
• 2010: #3 Kentucky 73 #9 Tennessee 62 (Lexington)
• 2010: #2 Kentucky 74 #15 Tennessee 45 (SEC Tournament)
• 2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2010: #13 Michigan State 70 #15 Tennessee 69 (Elite Eight)
• 2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)

While some of the most memorable Pearl wins involved Tennessee playing outside the Top 15 (with memorable 2010 victories over #1 Kansas and 2 Kentucky just missing the cut in what would’ve made seven such games in that year alone), it’s still an impressive list. Rick Barnes also makes an appearance here, getting the best of the 2008 Vols after coming up short the two previous years. Credit Pearl for getting in one of these games in five of his six seasons in Knoxville.

2000 & 2001

• 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (Knoxville)
• 2000: #14 Kentucky 81 #6 Tennessee 68 (Lexington)
• 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (Knoxville)
• 2001: #14 Virginia 107 #4 Tennessee 89 (Jimmy V Classic)
• 2001: #4 Tennessee 83 #12 Syracuse 70 (Syracuse)
• 2001: #13 Florida 81 #8 Tennessee 67 (Gainesville)
• 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (Knoxville)

The 1999-00 season was my freshman year at UT, and those two games in Knoxville were incredible, especially for a program that hadn’t played in a Top 15 game in 15 years at that point. Auburn was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as their preseason number one, and the Vols annihilated them. The overtime win against Florida came after the Vols won in Gainesville in double overtime. And you can also see where it started to go wrong for Jerry Green the next year: the Virginia and Syracuse games were back-to-back, a classic, “We’re overrated, nevermind, we’re underrated!” sequence. And the last one was the second of a three-game home losing streak to Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia where the Vols gave up an average of 93 points per loss.

All told in these 25 games: 11-14, but just 4-7 as the higher ranked team. Let’s hope that’s trending in the other direction tomorrow night.

With apologies to Sunday’s clash between Vanderbilt and Alcorn State, we turn our eyes to conference play: four games teams on Tuesday night, then the rest of us jump on board on Wednesday, including the Top 15 showdown between the Vols and Missouri. More on that game to come, but first, a look at the landscape, where the grass is far less blue.

It’s a credit to Kentucky that the SEC basketball conversation defaults to them. But the immediate question becomes, with the Cats now 1-6 and their only win over Morehead State, how will the league be perceived when its golden goose is down?

Everything, of course, is weird this year. Kentucky’s SEC opener is postponed due to covid issues at South Carolina, which I’m sure won’t be the last of that. The league implemented an open date of sorts on what would normally be the final Saturday of the regular season on March 6, which I’m assuming gives room for a single make-up game. We’ll see how they choose to handle that if/when teams face multiple cancellations. But we already know we’re dealing with a smaller sample size: Tennessee lost games with #1 Gonzaga and #9 Wisconsin, and though the Colorado pickup looks good (also receiving votes at 6-1 and 24th in KenPom), the Vols need their game with Kansas to be played free of covid issues. Otherwise, we’d be left with the same question facing most of the SEC: how good are we, really?

The perception problem isn’t just Kentucky at the top, but a significant shift from preseason expectations:

Preseason Media Poll	Current KenPom
1. Tennessee	1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky	2. Florida
3. LSU	3. Ole Miss
4. Florida	4. Arkansas
5. Alabama	5. LSU
6. Arkansas	6. Missouri
7. Auburn	7. Kentucky
8. South Carolina	8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss	9. South Carolina
10. Missouri	10. Auburn
11. Texas A&M	11. Texas A&M
12. Mississippi State	12. Mississippi State
13. Georgia	13. Georgia
14. Vanderbilt	14. Vanderbilt

Not much has changed at the bottom, though keep an eye on 7-0 Georgia, who did beat faltering Cincinnati by more than we did. At the top, Kentucky has been unusually bad, and Florida’s season is now totally unpredictable after Keyontae Johnson’s health scare. Meanwhile, Missouri is undefeated and in the Top 15 of both polls, while Ole Miss has a three-point loss to Dayton and is beating bad teams by 35-40 points.

What happens to the SEC when Kentucky has a down year? Seven years ago the Cats missed the NCAA Tournament, and the league put just two teams in the field at-large – Florida as a three seed despite finishing second in KenPom, Missouri as a nine – plus Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss team at 12 as SEC Tournament champions. Cuonzo Martin’s Vols were left out at 20-12 (11-7).

This year, the SEC is currently fourth in KenPom’s conference ratings, just behind the ACC and just ahead of the Big East. With the Big Ten and Big 12 battling it out for conference supremacy, the SEC will get its annual chance to improve its perception in a few weeks in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. In the Christmas Eve Bracket Matrix, the league has five teams in the field (starting with the Vols as a three seed), with Ole Miss among the first four out. After putting eight teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven in 2019, five would certainly be a disappointment.

Of course, there’s a simple solution for Tennessee: win the league, and leave no doubt along the way.

KenPom projects the Vols as SEC Champions at 13-5. Tennessee is chasing its second league title in four years, but also just its fourth in 39 years. Most recently, the Vols shared the title in 1982, 2000 and 2018, which means they’ve only won it outright one time since 1967, and twice ever. That accomplishment last belonged to the 2008 Vols.

Can they do it? With Kentucky down and Florida uncertain, the opening stretch – at Missouri, vs Alabama, vs Arkansas – feels much more telling. If Tennessee navigates that stretch successfully, they can cement themselves in the Top 10 nationally and in the top seed conversation. In a year when you may want to avoid Gonzaga at all costs, one surefire way to do that is earn a one seed – the program’s first – yourself.

Could this Tennessee team climb that high? The defense checks out, while the offense is in progress. But with smaller sample sizes and an uncertain SEC, it may take an even better record than we’re used to. In the last four NCAA Tournaments, one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday. The Vols will enter league play with a clean slate. The longer they keep it that way, the better their chances to separate themselves from the rest of the league in the overall conversation.

In a year when Kentucky is down and league perception may suffer for it, it would truly be a program accomplishment for Tennessee to win the league outright and earn a one or two seed along the way, commanding their own level of respect regardless of what anyone else in the league does around them. And that’s exactly how they’ll enter league play: good enough to make their own fate.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the USC Upstate Spartans tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Among the Vols’ prior opponents so far this season, the USC Upstate Spartans compare most closely to Cincinnati and St. Joseph’s, and the result tonight should be similar.

Here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to continue to work on things that are not yet up to the high standards of Rick Barnes, like tip-to-zeroes focus, ball movement to get good shots, and getting to the free throw line.
2. The smothering defense should continue against USC Upstate, making it extremely difficult for the Spartans to get anything going, especially when they also figure to be prone to turning the ball over and unable to get rebounds.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 33.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 27 and puts the score at Tennessee 84, Saint Joseph’s 57, which translates into a 99% chance of winning.

Our toddler Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by a whopping 43 points (Tennessee 92, USC Upstate 49). Woo.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Okay. Again, looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: They shoot like Cincinnati and St. Joe’s.

Turnover %

Conclusion: They like to give the ball up. Fun!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ooh. This is shaping up quite nicely.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About even here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really beginning to get their groove on offense but still have some ground to make up from a couple of clunkers early in the season. On the other end of the court, USC Upstate is in for a shock.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Again, the Vols are both really protecting the ball well and really doing a good job of stealing it from the other team. The Spartans aren’t especially adept at thievery, and they are exceedingly generous on the other end. More opportunities to improve shooting for the Vols!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Woo, more green-on-red. The Vols are rebounding really well on both ends of the court, and the Spartans, well, the Spartans are not. Still more opportunities for the Vols to improve their shooting!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Along with continuing to improve their shooting percentages, the Vols have also been improving their ability to get to the free throw line. But as with shooting, they still have some ground to cover on the free-throw front. The Spartans aren’t just going to give this to them.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against the St. Joseph’s Hawks tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

You have to hand it to Saint Joseph’s: Three of their first five games (including tonight against the Vols) will be against Top 10 teams. Keep that in mind when you cast a dismissive glance at their stats to date. On the other hand, the Vols aren’t likely to make things any easier for the Hawks tonight, and their stats will likely hold until their schedule lets up. Which shouldn’t be tonight.

Tennessee should have a chance to further improve its shooting percentages this evening and should be able to continue its dominance on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and tough shots without fouling and rebounding many of the misses. Bottom line: Tennessee appears to have the advantage in every facet of the game tonight.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to have sort of a dealer’s choice, either choosing their flavor of success or just playing until the smoothest of paths becomes evident.
2. If they choose to work on things they’re not yet doing especially well, watch for the offense to continue to solve the “good shots” puzzle, increasing their percentages both from the field and from the three-point line, and also improving their ability to draw fouls and earn three throw attempts.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 19 and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Saint Joseph’s 64, which translates into a 96% chance of winning.

According to our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, Tennessee is scoring 116% of what its opponents usually give up and allowing only 68% of what those opponents usually get. Those numbers for Saint Joseph’s are 115% and 117%. It thinks the Vols cover pretty easily tonight. It’s also been wrong a lot, as it’s still finding its wings.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. That’s looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Not terrible shooters at this point. Most like Cincinnati.

Turnover %

Conclusion: I know I’m supposed to be looking at St. Joe’s, but I’m getting distracted by that No. 15 ranking for Tennessee. In turnover percentage! Woo. Huge improvement from last season so far.

Oh, and I almost forgot: The Hawks aren’t bad in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: More green for the Vols. Loving that. Also digging that Saint Joseph’s is really pretty bad at offensive rebounding.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well. The green party is over, apparently. Good news, though. The Hawks aren’t getting to the free throw line any more often than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So the Vols have been shooting better recently but still have a ways to go. It appears that they’ll have an opportunity to improve that again tonight, although Will wisely points out that the Hawks have played a pretty wicked schedule so far this young season.

On the other side of the court, Tennessee’s defense continues to throttle the enthusiasm out of opponents and will likely continue to do so tonight against the Hawks.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Woo. We’re not giving the ball up, and we’re taking it away from opponents. Big advantages for the good guys in turnovers tonight.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh! Not only are the Vols super good at offensive rebounding and really good on the defensive boards as well, but Saint Joseph’s is apparently all too willing to just concede rebounds on both sides of the court. Nice.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well, who needs free throws anyway? The Hawks aren’t likely to even get a whiff of the free throw stripe tonight due to them not knowing the way and Tennessee crushing the compass. The Vols aren’t much better about getting there, although it looks like St. Joseph’s might make things easier in that regard this evening.

Go Vols.

Whatever is or isn’t going to happen with Jeremy Pruitt, the surest joy one can choose in the athletic department right now is back on the floor tonight at 6:00 PM against Saint Joseph’s (SEC Network). The Hawks are 0-4 but have faced the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation, losing to Auburn by five in overtime, Kansas by 18, Drexel by four, and Villanova by 20. They won’t be particularly intimidated by Tennessee on the front end, though the Volunteer defense has a way of doing that by itself once these games get going.

Tennessee’s offense is coming along nicely too, bolstered by a 103-point performance against Tennessee Tech last week. Jaden Springer became the first Vol to hit 20+ points in that contest, and is now averaging an efficient 12.5 points in 19.5 minutes per game. The really interesting thing with this group is how it feels like seven different players could lead the team in scoring on a given night.

In the early going John Fulkerson (12.8), Springer (12.5), Victor Bailey (10.8), and Josiah James (10.5) all average double figures. Keon Johnson is at 7.5 in 18.3 minutes. And we know Yves Pons (6.8) and Santiago Vescovi (5.8) are capable of an outburst as well.

The freshmen will continue to get plenty of opportunities, and Tennessee may continue to run a lot of its desired offense through Fulkerson, who still leads the team in field goal attempts despite foul trouble in the opener. But we’re also seeing early signs of the efficiency that can come from great ball movement to so many options. Not only is Jaden Springer proving to be a reliable threat (19-of-29 from the floor, 4-of-5 from three), but Josiah James isn’t far behind him (13-of-28 from the floor, 6-of-11 from three, 10-of-10 from the line).

Saint Joseph’s has a decent offense, comparable to what we saw from Cincinnati though they go about it with far less height. But their defense has struggled to keep up with better talent, 249th nationally in defensive efficiency. And 48 hours later the Vols will host USC Upstate, a team on par with the Tennessee Tech squad that just lost by 54 points.

But after that it’s a week off, then SEC play on December 30 at #16 Missouri. Two more chances to tune it up. But with nothing certain on the football side of things right now, Rick Barnes’ basketball squad is truly a gift to be enjoyed this time of year, and perhaps deep into March.