If the 3-6 Vols are to pull off the upset against 7-1 Texas A&M Saturday, the head-to-head stat rankings suggest that they’ll need to rely heavily on the passing game, especially on early downs that are usually reserved for rushing plays. On defense, expect a game plan similar to the one they used against Florida, which is to shut down the rushing attack and use a clock-eating, bend-don’t-break philosophy in an attempt to mitigate the damage caused by A&M’s passing attack. Then hope that it works better against the Aggies than it did against Florida. Celebrate every time the defense wins third down, because it’s not likely to happen very often.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
The 2020 Tennessee offense has not earned a pre-game advantage, especially against what is essentially a Top 30 A&M defense across the board. If there is a push anywhere, it’s on first down, and the best opportunity appears to be in the passing game.
Where’s the danger?
Once again this week, the danger is everywhere for the Vols’ offense. The biggest challenges appear to be running the ball and converting third downs. Those things are kind of important in football.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
I’d expect Tennessee not to waste early downs trying to run the ball unless there’s some early and incontrovertible evidence that it’s working. I’m hoping to see a lot of passing on rushing (first and second) downs to make third downs less problematic.
Vols on defense
Where’s the opportunity?
Um, not really any better on this side of the ball. There does appear to be something close to a push in the run game. Plus, all of those apparent A&M advantages don’t seem to correlate directly with the all-important scoreboard, as the Vols’ scoring defense isn’t too far behind the Aggies’ scoring offense.
Where’s the danger?
Again, pretty much everywhere, but especially on third downs, where the Aggies are elite and the Vols are living in the basement boiler room. The passing game looks to be more of a challenge than the run game.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
I expect Tennessee to try to make Texas A&M one-dimensional by attempting to take away the run game, much the way they did against Florida. The trick, then, will be to also keep all receivers from getting behind defenders so the bend-don’t-break philosophy has a chance to possibly work. Basically, it’s the Florida game plan with the hope that A&M will not only be as ineffective in the run game as Florida, but also won’t be as effective as the Gators were through the air.
Special teams
The Vols have been good on special teams most of the season, and Paxton Brooks is quietly having a really solid year punting for Tennessee. A punt is a good play on Saturday, as any field position victory will be helpful.
Turnovers and penalties
Sigh. These guys are also much less likely to turn the ball over than are our guys.