Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against Appalachian State tonight. Again, it’s still quite early in the season, so be wary of the data and the conclusions, but here is what we have so far.

Summary and Score Prediction

In its first two games, Tennessee’s defense has suffocated opponents. App State’s shooting percentage looks okay heading into this game, but may not look nearly as good afterward. Plus, the Mountaineers’ tendency to mishandle the ball combined with the Vols’ regular pickpocketing of the offense looks like seriously bad news for the guys on the other side of the mountain. And finally, neither team is sending opponents to the free throw line very often, but the Vols appear more likely to get there tonight than are the Mountaineers.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Appalachian State game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee’s defense to really frustrate App State’s offense in a variety of ways, forcing both bad shots and a flurry of turnovers.
2. On offense, expect the Vols to focus on protecting the ball and shooting better from the field. Don’t be surprised if free throws are a bit more difficult to come by this evening.

KenPom likes the Vols by 18 and puts the score at Tennessee 75, Appalachian State 57, which translates into a 95% chance of winning.

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Baseline

First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Mountaineers are shooting pretty well from the field. They also haven’t played us yet.

Turnover %

Conclusion: ‘Tis the season for giving!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Not bad, but not as good as the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About the same as our other two opponents at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are shooting poorly from the field, and tonight they’ll be going up against a pretty good defensive team. We’ll see whether that gets fixed tonight or not.

On the other hand, Tennessee’s shooting defense is great, although App State’s shooting offense isn’t terrible (at least not yet!)

Turnover %

Conclusions

When it comes to the Vols turning the ball over, it seems their main competition tonight will be themselves. They protected possession better last game out, but still have a ways to go.

And here’s the biggest mismatch of the game: Tennessee excels at forcing its opponents into turnovers, and the Mountaineers are already having problems in that area. Expect the Vols to make this a game of Keep Away.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Mountaineers are putting up good defensive rebounding numbers so far, although the Vols are doing pretty well on the offensive glass as well.

On the other end of the court, things appear to be even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Neither the Vols nor the Mountaineers are, so far, sending opponents to the free throw line very often at all. But Tennessee’s more likely to get there than is Appalachian State.

Go Vols.

With the return of men’s basketball comes the return of the GRT Four Factors Gameplan. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of the Four Factors, you can read up on it here. It’s early in the season, so small sample sizes mean suspect conclusions, but here is the data we have so far and what it might mean for the game tomorrow against the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Vols have played only one game, and that after an extended break from practice due to pandemic-related stuff, but they do already have some to-dos. First, they need to shoot better from the field. They had a very poor night against Colorado, but really, they weren’t especially efficient much of last year, either. So I’d expect that getting good shots and knocking them down will be a priority tomorrow.

How might they do that? Solve the zone, which Colorado used effectively to slow down a Tennessee team that was threatening early to run away with it. The Vols should expect opponents to use the zone liberally until they find an effective counter.

Third, they need to kibosh the turnovers. This was a real problem last year and continued in the first game this year.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Cincinnati game tomorrow by knowing what to watch for:

1. Once Cincinnati goes to a zone defense, watch the Vols closely. Expect them to try to get the ball into the middle of the zone, and this time, knock down those mid-range jumpers. Going to the bucket and drawing fouls could work, too.
2. Limit the turnovers. This was (ahem) epidemic last year, and it’s time for a vaccine already. They don’t need to be the best in the nation at protecting the ball, but they need to stop being one of the worst. Ten to twelve per game would be much better than 15.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Cincinnati 63, which translates into a 74% chance of winning.

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Baseline

First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

The Vols’ shooting percentage from the field was terrible in the first game and was hopefully an aberration. Its defense was not and was hopefully a sign of things to come.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Bearcats are shooting well so far; the Vols are not.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ditto turnovers. One game does not a pattern make, but this was a problem for Tennessee last year, and it’s worth keeping a wary eye on.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Good news here, as Tennessee’s out of the 2020 gate with a decent offensive rebound percentage and tomorrow will be going up against a Cincinnati team that was merely okay on the boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: I wonder if the zone defense that Colorado played most of the first game is responsible for limited free throw attempts. I suspect we’ll get an opportunity to find out, as teams would probably be wise to continue to play zone until Tennessee proves they have an effective counter.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shot poorly in the opener, but Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything to be overly concerned with, so let’s see what happens in the second game. And the Vols’ shooting defense figures to be really good this season and proved it in the first game. Expect the Bearcats to have trouble scoring.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols turned the ball over too much in the first game and could find out in its second whether the problem is them or the competition. They are, so far, exceptional at creating turnovers, although Cincinnati is (also so far; I’ll stop saying this now) not bad at protecting the ball.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

It appears that Cincinnati could make it difficult for the Vols to nab offensive rebounds. We’ll see. On the other side, they haven’t been terrific getting their own, but the Vols so far (I lied) haven’t been very effective on the defensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Perhaps getting to the free throw line will be easier for the Vols tomorrow. So far (!), they’re doing a fine job of defending without fouling.

Go Vols.

Opening the season with what we believe to be back-to-back bubble teams gives you a chance to learn about the #12 Vols at an accelerated rate. But this one in particular will help answer one of the biggest questions Tennessee faced coming into the year.

Last year the Vols went to Cincinnati coming off the loss to Memphis; Lamonte Turner was struggling but still playing. Tennessee shot 45% from the floor and 17-of-17 at the free throw line…and lost by 12. That’s because the Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor and a blistering 26-of-40 for 65% inside the arc. The last team to shoot better than that against the Vols from two was Wisconsin in Maui in November of 2016. And Cincinnati was +11 on the glass.

Tre Scott, with his 15 points in 38 minutes, is gone, as are the Cumberland brothers in the backcourt. Guard Keith Williams is back, and the Bearcats run a lot of their stuff through him. But the biggest challenge for Tennessee against this team returns: 7’1″ Chris Vogt, now joined by 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas, often on the floor at the same time.

Cincinnati is 2-1 with a loss to Xavier and wins over Lipscomb and Furman (#65 KenPom). And once again, they’re getting it done inside the arc (58.5%, 25th nationally) and keeping everyone off the offensive glass (13th nationally).

What will Tennessee do against this kind of size? And can the Vols rebound well enough to win?

The answer to the latter will look long and hard toward E.J. Anosike. The Vols didn’t rebound as well as Rick Barnes would’ve liked against Colorado (-6), but Anosike grabbed four offensive rebounds in 14 minutes. That Jarnell Stokes/Jeronne Maymon role we wanted to see if he could play looked good in the opener. Tennessee still got 10 rebounds from Yves Pons and the usual better-than-you-think rebounding from Josiah James with six boards. They will need all of that and more against this team, especially if shots aren’t falling again.

Defensively, Tennessee has made so much hay as a shot blocking team under Rick Barnes: fifth nationally in block percentage last year, 10th in 2019, and always in the Top 65 nationally even in the first two years when the Vols struggled. Last year the Vols blocked 7% of Cincinnati’s shots, half their normal average. When facing this kind of height at multiple positions, it’s hard for Pons to be everywhere and hard for anyone to be disruptive. The Vols created a different kind of havoc against Colorado, forcing a turnover on 35.7% of their possessions. It’s one game, but that’s currently second in the nation. The more you force turnovers, the fewer shots you need to block.

The Vols won’t see this kind of size often, but they will again if Kentucky continues to put 6’10” Isaiah Jackson and 7’0″ Olivier Sarr on the floor together. But Tennessee’s potential to be a better rebounding team will get a stiff test early. And as was the case with Colorado, non-conference performance will matter much more with smaller sample sizes due to the virus. The Vols are still trying to add one more game, but after this one our non-conference schedule features three teams hovering in the 200+ range in KenPom, then Kansas in January.

We’re still playing college football on Saturdays (which will become clear when you see the TV schedule), but check out the opportunities for the league in basketball tomorrow:

• Florida at #10 Florida State, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
• Mississippi State vs Dayton (Atlanta), 12:00 PM, ESPNews
• Notre Dame at Kentucky, 12:00 PM, CBS
• Cincinnati at #12 Tennessee, 12:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Texas A&M at TCU, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
• Auburn vs Memphis (Atlanta), 5:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Alabama vs Clemson (Atlanta), 7:30 PM, ACC Network
• #6 Illinois at Missouri, 8:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate

That’s a big spot for Cuozno’s team to help us all out.

The Vols can help themselves, and help us feel better about one of their few perceived weaknesses, by how they handle Cincinnati’s size tomorrow. Does Anosike get more minutes? Do the Vols again create so many turnovers it just doesn’t matter? Will the mid-range jumper be our friend this time?

See you at 12:30 tomorrow to find out.

Go Vols.