Well, a weird year gets weirder: the College Football Playoff field was announced yesterday, which means bowls start (checks calendar)…today. So jump in our free bowl pick ’em with confidence points at Fun Office Pools.

Today’s first game is at 2:30 PM ET, but as always we’ve made the earliest kick worth the fewest confidence points. So if you’re coming to this late, you’ll only be one point behind.

Good luck!

We’ve talked a lot about blue-chip recruiting ratio around here. The idea is that if a team wants to have legitimate national championship hopes, its recruiting class has to consist of at least 50% 5- and 4-star recruits.

That’s true, but it’s also true that football is a game of relativity, and as much as it matters that you hit certain standards, it matters more how you compare to your competition. As Will recently pointed out, a blue-chip ratio of 50% is probably not a high enough target for the Vols due to their schedule regularly featuring teams with even higher blue-chip ratios. When Alabama and Georgia are regularly hovering around 80%, the milestone of hitting 50% doesn’t matter nearly as much as it otherwise would.

The whole concept of “gap” in college football has been on my mind a lot lately. Everybody loves lists, and we have a tendency to look at them and draw conclusions based solely on rankings while completely ignoring the ratings that lead to those rankings. In doing so, we miss the gap. Being in second place doesn’t mean you’re in contention for first if you’re miles behind.

National Signing Day Part I on Wednesday got me thinking about recruiting gaps, and that led me to wonder just how much food was on the table and how much was being hoarded by the heavies in this league.

Using 247Sports’ data (including both signees and commits and current as of the morning of 12.17.20), there are 111 blue-chip recruits and 167 others. Over 81% of the blue-chips went to only six teams, less than half of the league.

That’s a huge disparity between the top six teams and the rest of the conference, but the disparity is also quite pronounced among those six. For instance, the sixth team on the list had only half as many blue-chips as the first. Alabama, whose kingdom extends from the castle campus to the recruiting trails, has a full 18% of all of the SEC blue-chip recruits.

Here’s a visual:

And here is the same information in another form:

One of Tennessee’s main challenges, of course, is not only that it is the sixth team on the list. And it’s not only that plus the fact that most of those other five teams have at least 50% more blue-chips than do the Vols. It’s both of those things, plus the fact that they have to play three (and sometimes four) of those teams every season. They could do well and never know it because so many of their regular opponents are doing even better.

All of that leads to a question about on-field strategy. If the coaching staff is committed to coaching techniques and game plans that rest on an assumption that you have more talent than your opponent, they’re essentially conceding at least three losses every year, at least until they can catch some of those other teams on the recruiting trail. The rub is that it’s hard to catch those other teams when they are also winning more often and turning coaches over less often than you are. And if you not only lose to more-talented teams but to less-talented ones as well, you have a real problem. You need wins to improve your blue-chip ratio, and you need a better blue-chip ratio to get more wins.

There’s both a chicken and egg shortage on Rocky Top. Tennessee doesn’t need both an elite blue-chip ratio and all the wins our hearts desire right now, but it does need to figure out how to bootstrap itself into one or the other quickly. Being sixth on a short list of luminaries is not an insignificant accomplishment, but in this case, it hides just how long the journey is to the desired destination.

What’s the solution? That, of course, is the million dollar question and will have to wait for another day and another post.

Tennessee opened as a 12.5-point underdog to Texas A&M this week, and the line has since moved to 14. With a gun to its head, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine is predicting that the Aggies will cover, but it’s also screaming that both teams are inconsistent enough to be wary of the whole thing.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 22.4
Texas A&M’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.7
Texas A&M’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.1

The Texas A&M scoring defense of 22.1 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• Auburn 23.7
• Georgia 19.9

Tennessee scored 17 points against Auburn and 21 points against Georgia. Combined, that’s 87% of what those teams usually give up, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Texas A&M 19.2.

The Texas A&M scoring offense of 31.4 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• Georgia 33.2
• Missouri 26.1

Georgia scored 44 points against Tennessee, but Missouri got only 12. So, against the best comps, Tennessee allowed 94% of what those teams usually get. That makes the estimated points for Texas A&M against Tennessee 29.5.

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.2, Texas A&M 29.5

From the perspective of Texas A&M

The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.7 is most similar to the following prior Texas A&M opponents:

• Mississippi State 27.9
• Florida 26.3

Texas A&M scored 28 points against Mississippi State but 41 points against Florida, which, taken together, is 127% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Texas A&M against Tennessee 37.7.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 22.4 is most similar to the following prior Texas A&M opponents:

• South Carolina 23.5
• Arkansas 25.7

South Carolina scored only 3 points against Texas A&M. Arkansas got 31. Combined, that’s 69% of what those teams usually get, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Texas A&M 15.5.

Estimated score: Texas A&M 37.7, Tennessee 15.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 17.4, Texas A&M 33.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Texas A&M -16.2

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 3.7

That makes this a Category 1 game, meaning the Machine is not particularly self-confident.

Eyeball adjustments

I think it’s wise to be wary of the Machine’s results this week. For one, using Georgia and Missouri as scoring offense comps from Tennessee’s perspective is troubling because Georgia got a lot more than they should have and Missouri got a lot less. Plus, all four of the comps from A&M’s perspective have similar problems, especially South Carolina and Arkansas as scoring defense comps. This demonstrates quite nicely that both Tennessee and Texas A&M have been inconsistent this season.

So, I decided to run the Machine again using every game of the season as comps for both teams. The result? Tennessee 17.6, Texas A&M 31.7, a spread of -14.1.

So . . . what we’re dealing with here is a situation where both teams are inconsistent, but one is clearly still better over a larger sample size. That means that I’m going with Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 17 (A&M -14), but also hopeful for a wildly different result in Tennessee’s favor if the Vols play well and the Aggies play poorly.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols 12.5-point underdogs and an over/under of 51.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Texas A&M 32, Tennessee 19.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Texas A&M by 12.5 (Texas A&M 33, Tennessee 20, Vanderbilt 17) and gives the Vols a 24% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The Statsy Preview Machine has done its best with the data it has, but I think it has overshot the mark a bit due to using only two comps each from inconsistent teams. However, we both think that A&M covers the opening spread. SP+ spit out the same prediction as the opening line and also has A&M against the spread, but only after rounding.

• Vegas: Texas A&M 32, Tennessee 19 (Texas A&M -12.5)
• SP+: Texas A&M 33, Tennessee 20 (Texas A&M -13, covers)
• GRT’s Statsy Preview Machine: Texas A&M 33.6, Tennessee 17.4 (Texas A&M -16.2, covers)
• Me: Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 17 (Texas A&M -14, covers) (but on upset alert!)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
• Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
• Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.
• Week 12: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Auburn would cover the 11.5-point spread. Auburn won by 13, 30-17.
• Week 14: Both the SPM and I were wrong in predicting that Florida would cover the 17-point spread. Florida won by 12.
• Week 15: The SPM and I were both wrong in predicting that Tennessee wouldn’t cover as 15-point favorites over Vanderbilt. The Vols won 42-17.

Season-long results for all games can be found here.

What do y’all think?

Let’s say Jeremy Pruitt gets abducted by aliens tomorrow, taken to a planet that hates asparagus but loves cornbread so he can rule on high. Tennessee, forced to make a change, hires Coach McCoach. We’ve all learned to be a little unsure, but Coach McCoach turns in the following seasons in Knoxville:

• 8-5
• 10-3
• 11-3, SEC East champs
• 6-7
• 9-4
• 10-4, SEC East champs
• 5-7

After going 78-81 (.491) the last 13 years, would you take McCoach’s record of 59-33 (.641) with two division titles over the next seven seasons? Would you believe he’s the guy to lead Tennessee forward?

Because, as you might’ve noticed, those are more or less the seven seasons that got Phillip Fulmer fired from 2002-08.

(I’ve added one additional win to Fulmer’s totals in 2004 and 2005, when college football went back to playing just 11 games before fully adopting the 12-game schedule in 2006. Adding an FCS win in 2005 would’ve made the Vols bowl eligible, and I’ve given them a loss in the bowl game in keeping with the spirit of that season.)

Or maybe you’d take Gus Malzahn’s tenure at Auburn (which is now technically available): 68-35 (.660) over eight years, with two division titles plus playing for a national championship.

The problem, of course, is the rhythm of it all. Malzahn’s .660 came via a 12-2 start in that near-miss championship season of 2013, meaning his next seven seasons have gone:

• 8-5
• 7-6
• 8-5
• 10-4, SEC West champs
• 8-5
• 9-4
• 6-4

This is a version of the same thing that got Fulmer, played out over twice as many years: 91-20 (.820) in Phillip’s first nine years, then a little closer to earth in his final seven.

If you track it back to Johnny Majors’ back-to-back SEC titles a few years before Fulmer took over, the Vols have now been in the wilderness (or now exile, perhaps) just as long as we were in the promised land. Over 13 years (1989-2001), Tennessee had the best winning percentage of any SEC school (.813), with four conference titles, a national championship, and just missing a chance to play for another at the end of that cycle. And in the last 13 years, Tennessee’s .491 winning percentage ranks 11th in the SEC, better only than Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.

But it’s the space between – Coach McCoach’s record that got Fulmer fired – that perhaps best reflects who Tennessee historically is.

All-time, the Vols are a program that wins two-thirds of its games. Tennessee remains tenth nationally in winning percentage, dropping only one spot in these last 13 years. In today’s game (non-pandemic edition), that means you win your FCS game and go 8-4 in the others. That means 9-4 is your average year.

Believing 9-4 is your average means understanding that some years, you’re going to go 7-6. But some years, you should also go 11-2.

This, among other things, is what got Butch Jones: 9-4 in 2015 and 2016 represented his ceiling – painfully so knowing the Vols missed so many opportunities – and not his standard. When given another opportunity to see if he could continue building brick by brick, the whole thing fell down in 2017.

Those of us who remember the Decade of Dominance should all be old enough to know better by now. A healthy, fruitful goal for Tennessee isn’t to deem anything that isn’t the 90’s failure. It’s to get Tennessee to produce at the level of expectation it created for itself over 124 seasons, and see if you can take it forward from there.

And this is the question for Tennessee’s future, whether this year or next year or in any year: do you believe your head coach can move the program forward, in keeping with who your program is?

Along those lines, a thought on Tennessee’s leadership as it relates to the past, present, and future:

We should all be okay taking some responsibility for this.

When Tennessee fans effectively raised their voices and prevented Greg Schiano from becoming head coach three years ago, it was obvious such a move would come with consequences. My name is on one of those pieces from that Sunday too, and with it the understanding that such a thing would not do Tennessee any favors in the short term. And I would not change those choices, nor would the vast majority of the Tennessee fans I know.

Those choices impacted the choices Phillip Fulmer had, in a second search that reportedly focused on Jeremy Pruitt, Mel Tucker, and Kevin Steele. Tucker stayed at Georgia another year, went 5-7 at Colorado, and is now 2-4 at Michigan State. Steele might actually get the Auburn job, so perhaps he’s the biggest winner of the day.

Pruitt was a hire we appreciated at the time for the way it kept an eye on the ceiling: the Vols could’ve hired safe (so we thought at the time) in Les Miles or sentimental in Tee Martin, but took a chance on someone they believed could get Tennessee to its potential. If it turns out, whether this year or next, that Pruitt isn’t that guy, there should be some acknowledgment, spoken or unspoken, that Tennessee’s 2017 search was handcuffed from the beginning, and some of that is on us. And we wouldn’t change it. But it was certainly a factor.

Fans didn’t give Pruitt a contract extension this off-season, reported just before the first game but supposedly in the works pre-pandemic. But if it turns out Pruitt isn’t the guy…I get it. The odds were always going to be against whoever Tennessee hired at the end of that madness in 2017. We shouldn’t hold that choice only over Fulmer. There shouldn’t be a stubborn need to be right about a decision that always had a higher chance of not working out.

But we should want to ensure we’re asking the right questions about the next choice.

What’s good enough next year?

You may not like any argument to keep Jeremy Pruitt for 2021. But you should respect some of them. Just because Auburn did a crazy thing doesn’t mean it isn’t crazy. Maybe we all get an asterisk this year; God knows we could all use some grace.

But grace, of course, isn’t meant for only forgiveness and forgetting. It’s meant to help us move forward. What does moving forward look like for Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt in 2021?

The Vols are currently sitting on a class with a 47.6% blue chip ratio; recruiting continues to be the lead dog in the pro-Pruitt argument, even in turbulent times this season. If Tennessee looks at its talent and looks at the virus, and decides it’s worth finding out what happens to run it back next year, what will we need to see to believe Pruitt can move the program forward?

In this regard, our situation is most similar to 2011-12. After some initial promise, Derek Dooley’s Vols found themselves on the business end of bad losses: 31 points to #1 LSU, 31 points to #2 Alabama, 42 points to #8 Arkansas. Quarterback was also the biggest issue, that time due to injury (cue Dooley’s, “He’s got a broken thumb!”). We spent a lot of time arguing about the argument itself: is it reasonable to judge Dooley based on what he can do without Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter against Top 10 teams in year two? Shouldn’t we be focusing on the more problematic issues in the program he inherited?

Then Tennessee lost to Kentucky, and all hell broke loose.

In tracing where it all went wrong in these last 13 years, there are really only a few Saturdays that could have significantly changed Tennessee’s course. I can’t point to any that would’ve kept Lane Kiffin from leaving for USC. The snowball got so big in 2008, I think you’d need more than one of them to go differently for Fulmer to have kept his job then. And Jeremy Pruitt, though he has a pair of ranked wins in year one and an eight-game winning streak more recently, doesn’t have one close game that could’ve swung things by itself.

But three times in the last 13 (plus one) years, Tennessee’s story ultimately shifted on a single Saturday:

• In 2007, the Vols led LSU 14-13 with ten minutes to play in the SEC Championship Game. Tennessee’s last three drives ended with a pick six, a 4th-and-4 stop at the LSU 21, and an interception from the LSU 15. Win that game, and Tennessee wins the SEC for the first time in nine years, then goes to the Sugar Bowl to play Hawaii. Coming off that kind of hardware, Fulmer would’ve surely been back in 2009 even if 2008 played out exactly the same way.
• At Kentucky in 2011, Tennessee’s loss was followed by defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox leaving for the same position at Washington after turning down Texas the year before. Dooley replaced Wilcox with Sal Sunseri…more on that in a moment.
• There are so many close games with Butch Jones, but none as damaging as 2015 at Florida, where any one of so many plays going differently would’ve put the Vols in Atlanta, and more easily allowed the momentum he built up to that point in recruiting and overall to continue. Winning the only division title since 2007 may have changed a number of things about the Butch Jones conversation before we got to 2017.

In Atlanta in 2007 and falling just short of there in 2015, it certainly felt like a missed opportunity, but we believed there would be more to come. But when Dooley lost to Kentucky, even before Wilcox left, we knew there would only be one more chance.

If he stays, I don’t know if Jeremy Pruitt will face or create turnover among his coordinators. I do know he’ll need to win.

There’s actually some comforting news from Tennessee’s history here: in 2012, Dooley’s Vols were clearly better, jumping from 6.9 to 15.1 in SP+. They had a chance to win almost every Saturday, a benchmark we thought would be useful for the 2020 Vols. Tennessee took a 20-13 lead on #18 Florida midway through the third quarter, then snuffed out a fake punt. But the Gators scored 24 points in the final 18 minutes, a sign of things to come.

The Vols lost to #5 Georgia by seven, to #19 Mississippi State by 10, and to #1 Alabama by 31 again. By the time they lost to #17 South Carolina by three, almost all of us were out; the Vols added a four overtime loss to Missouri two weeks later to seal it.

In 2012, the Vols were much closer. But, for Dave Hart and the powers that be, it wasn’t close enough: Dooley was fired. Just being better wasn’t good enough, nor should it have been. And I believe that same standard would be applicable in 2021.

It could play out in similar fashion. Our power five opponent is a little lower on the totem pole – NC State then, Pittsburgh next year – and the Vols catch a school from Mississippi in the SEC West rotation. It’s a good opportunity for Tennessee to get to its standard; one thing about finishing 9-4 is, if you get there via a 9-3 regular season, it’d be the first one here since 2007. And if Pruitt does that, he’ll earn the opportunity to see if it is indeed closer to his standard or his ceiling going forward.

On Hugh Freeze, Good Fits, and Good Timing

If Pruitt stays at Tennessee and Freeze stays at Liberty, the best comparison here isn’t Jon Gruden. It’s Bruce Pearl.

Six years ago, Cuonzo Martin brought back a significant amount of talent after a pair of frustrating finishes. And every time the Vols lost, a significant percentage of our fanbase turned their eyes to Pearl.

He loved Tennessee. He wanted to be here. His resume was obviously superior. He could take us farther than anyone else.

And he had run afoul of the NCAA.

That basketball season reached a point where some were out on Cuonzo even when Cuonzo still had a realistic opportunity to move the program forward. And he almost did, coming within a bad call of the Elite Eight. But it’s not just the missed opportunity to enjoy something good happening to Tennessee, a sad route only for those who choose it. It’s the, “Only he can fix it,” belief, which is seductive and dangerous for all of us.

I don’t know Hugh Freeze or any of the names in this post personally. I’ve always been and remain a Tennessee fan observing from the outside. If his personal life is in a better place than it was when he left Ole Miss, that’s great news.

What about the issues that led to the NCAA vacating 27 of his wins? Is that going to be different in Knoxville?

Here’s the thing about, “Only he can fix it”: we already know that’s not true.

After Pearl and Cuonzo and a brief detour through Donnie Tyndall, Rick Barnes came to Tennessee.

Bruce Pearl is still a great coach. He got Auburn to the Final Four. Auburn is also currently ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Rick Barnes is still chasing Tennessee’s first Final Four. But in recruiting, in weeks at number one, and against Kentucky, Barnes hasn’t just reached Pearl’s ceiling in Knoxville. He raised it.

Hugh Freeze is still a great coach. Maybe he could come to Tennessee, run a clean program, and achieve continued greatness here. But it would be a bad idea to believe he’s the only one who could.

In fact, sometimes the timing actually does work in your favor – again, see Barnes – and in this case, some other names with natural ties to Tennessee might still be available for the Vols next year, if Pruitt doesn’t work out. Billy Napier, a Cookeville native, is 7-7, 10-3, and currently 9-1 at Louisiana. He’ll play Jamey Chadwell, a Campbell County native, on Saturday for the Sun Belt title. Napier, with both mid-major success and power five assistant experience, has a more proven resume right now than Derek Dooley or Jeremy Pruitt on the day they were hired, and I’d argue with you about it being better than Lane Kiffin and Butch Jones too.

There are never guarantees:

Thoughts about hiring coaches:

– Never hire a coach who didn't improve their prev. program (top left is empty)
– Improving a program may not be repeatable (bottom right is as crowded as top right)

[Improvement] = [Avg. SP+ under coach] – [Program's 3-Year SP+ Avg. Before Coach] pic.twitter.com/bv6QhIhUGO

— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) December 7, 2020

For every coach who turned mid-to-low-major success into major success – Matt Campbell, James Franklin, Dan Mullen – there are coaches who aced level one but struggled with level two: Scott Frost, Justin Fuente, Charlie Strong. You never know. Maybe you stay the course and a year from now, we’ve got much more data on Chadwell. Maybe Napier is still available and still a good idea. Maybe we’ll want to try Auburn’s past in Malzahn, or maybe they’ll make Kevin Steele sound like such a good idea Fulmer will go that route.

Maybe it actually will be Freeze, whether his biggest questions are answered or not.

And, after this crazy year, maybe the answer could still be Jeremy Pruitt.

Once more, #opportunityisnowhere, and you can Rorschach that thing to death. I think that’s always the most important work: how do we understand success at Tennessee right now? And who/what do we believe is the best path forward?

Go Vols.

If the 3-6 Vols are to pull off the upset against 7-1 Texas A&M Saturday, the head-to-head stat rankings suggest that they’ll need to rely heavily on the passing game, especially on early downs that are usually reserved for rushing plays. On defense, expect a game plan similar to the one they used against Florida, which is to shut down the rushing attack and use a clock-eating, bend-don’t-break philosophy in an attempt to mitigate the damage caused by A&M’s passing attack. Then hope that it works better against the Aggies than it did against Florida. Celebrate every time the defense wins third down, because it’s not likely to happen very often.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The 2020 Tennessee offense has not earned a pre-game advantage, especially against what is essentially a Top 30 A&M defense across the board. If there is a push anywhere, it’s on first down, and the best opportunity appears to be in the passing game.

Where’s the danger?

Once again this week, the danger is everywhere for the Vols’ offense. The biggest challenges appear to be running the ball and converting third downs. Those things are kind of important in football.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I’d expect Tennessee not to waste early downs trying to run the ball unless there’s some early and incontrovertible evidence that it’s working. I’m hoping to see a lot of passing on rushing (first and second) downs to make third downs less problematic.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um, not really any better on this side of the ball. There does appear to be something close to a push in the run game. Plus, all of those apparent A&M advantages don’t seem to correlate directly with the all-important scoreboard, as the Vols’ scoring defense isn’t too far behind the Aggies’ scoring offense.

Where’s the danger?

Again, pretty much everywhere, but especially on third downs, where the Aggies are elite and the Vols are living in the basement boiler room. The passing game looks to be more of a challenge than the run game.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

I expect Tennessee to try to make Texas A&M one-dimensional by attempting to take away the run game, much the way they did against Florida. The trick, then, will be to also keep all receivers from getting behind defenders so the bend-don’t-break philosophy has a chance to possibly work. Basically, it’s the Florida game plan with the hope that A&M will not only be as ineffective in the run game as Florida, but also won’t be as effective as the Gators were through the air.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols have been good on special teams most of the season, and Paxton Brooks is quietly having a really solid year punting for Tennessee. A punt is a good play on Saturday, as any field position victory will be helpful.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Sigh. These guys are also much less likely to turn the ball over than are our guys.