Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against the St. Joseph’s Hawks tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

You have to hand it to Saint Joseph’s: Three of their first five games (including tonight against the Vols) will be against Top 10 teams. Keep that in mind when you cast a dismissive glance at their stats to date. On the other hand, the Vols aren’t likely to make things any easier for the Hawks tonight, and their stats will likely hold until their schedule lets up. Which shouldn’t be tonight.

Tennessee should have a chance to further improve its shooting percentages this evening and should be able to continue its dominance on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and tough shots without fouling and rebounding many of the misses. Bottom line: Tennessee appears to have the advantage in every facet of the game tonight.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to have sort of a dealer’s choice, either choosing their flavor of success or just playing until the smoothest of paths becomes evident.
2. If they choose to work on things they’re not yet doing especially well, watch for the offense to continue to solve the “good shots” puzzle, increasing their percentages both from the field and from the three-point line, and also improving their ability to draw fouls and earn three throw attempts.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 19 and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Saint Joseph’s 64, which translates into a 96% chance of winning.

According to our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, Tennessee is scoring 116% of what its opponents usually give up and allowing only 68% of what those opponents usually get. Those numbers for Saint Joseph’s are 115% and 117%. It thinks the Vols cover pretty easily tonight. It’s also been wrong a lot, as it’s still finding its wings.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. That’s looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Not terrible shooters at this point. Most like Cincinnati.

Turnover %

Conclusion: I know I’m supposed to be looking at St. Joe’s, but I’m getting distracted by that No. 15 ranking for Tennessee. In turnover percentage! Woo. Huge improvement from last season so far.

Oh, and I almost forgot: The Hawks aren’t bad in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: More green for the Vols. Loving that. Also digging that Saint Joseph’s is really pretty bad at offensive rebounding.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well. The green party is over, apparently. Good news, though. The Hawks aren’t getting to the free throw line any more often than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So the Vols have been shooting better recently but still have a ways to go. It appears that they’ll have an opportunity to improve that again tonight, although Will wisely points out that the Hawks have played a pretty wicked schedule so far this young season.

On the other side of the court, Tennessee’s defense continues to throttle the enthusiasm out of opponents and will likely continue to do so tonight against the Hawks.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Woo. We’re not giving the ball up, and we’re taking it away from opponents. Big advantages for the good guys in turnovers tonight.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh! Not only are the Vols super good at offensive rebounding and really good on the defensive boards as well, but Saint Joseph’s is apparently all too willing to just concede rebounds on both sides of the court. Nice.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well, who needs free throws anyway? The Hawks aren’t likely to even get a whiff of the free throw stripe tonight due to them not knowing the way and Tennessee crushing the compass. The Vols aren’t much better about getting there, although it looks like St. Joseph’s might make things easier in that regard this evening.

Go Vols.

Whatever is or isn’t going to happen with Jeremy Pruitt, the surest joy one can choose in the athletic department right now is back on the floor tonight at 6:00 PM against Saint Joseph’s (SEC Network). The Hawks are 0-4 but have faced the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation, losing to Auburn by five in overtime, Kansas by 18, Drexel by four, and Villanova by 20. They won’t be particularly intimidated by Tennessee on the front end, though the Volunteer defense has a way of doing that by itself once these games get going.

Tennessee’s offense is coming along nicely too, bolstered by a 103-point performance against Tennessee Tech last week. Jaden Springer became the first Vol to hit 20+ points in that contest, and is now averaging an efficient 12.5 points in 19.5 minutes per game. The really interesting thing with this group is how it feels like seven different players could lead the team in scoring on a given night.

In the early going John Fulkerson (12.8), Springer (12.5), Victor Bailey (10.8), and Josiah James (10.5) all average double figures. Keon Johnson is at 7.5 in 18.3 minutes. And we know Yves Pons (6.8) and Santiago Vescovi (5.8) are capable of an outburst as well.

The freshmen will continue to get plenty of opportunities, and Tennessee may continue to run a lot of its desired offense through Fulkerson, who still leads the team in field goal attempts despite foul trouble in the opener. But we’re also seeing early signs of the efficiency that can come from great ball movement to so many options. Not only is Jaden Springer proving to be a reliable threat (19-of-29 from the floor, 4-of-5 from three), but Josiah James isn’t far behind him (13-of-28 from the floor, 6-of-11 from three, 10-of-10 from the line).

Saint Joseph’s has a decent offense, comparable to what we saw from Cincinnati though they go about it with far less height. But their defense has struggled to keep up with better talent, 249th nationally in defensive efficiency. And 48 hours later the Vols will host USC Upstate, a team on par with the Tennessee Tech squad that just lost by 54 points.

But after that it’s a week off, then SEC play on December 30 at #16 Missouri. Two more chances to tune it up. But with nothing certain on the football side of things right now, Rick Barnes’ basketball squad is truly a gift to be enjoyed this time of year, and perhaps deep into March.

So, it’s three games. Two against what we believed to be bubble teams, though Colorado has leapt to 33rd in KenPom on the strength of two absolute blowouts since then. An absolute blowout is now the expectation tonight when the Vols host Tennessee Tech, so we may not learn a whole lot more just yet. League play is 12 days away, and the opener at #16 Missouri may indeed feature the two best teams in the SEC. More answers are coming.

But let’s take a moment to begin to appreciate what may already be true: this might be the best Tennessee defense since…ever.

We’ll use KenPom data, as usual, and call it the modern era. In just three games, the Vols have already jumped up a tier in that history, now just decimal points (22.04 points better than the average team in 100 possessions) behind 2008 (22.17) and 2018 (22.27). Cuonzo’s 2014 team is next at 23.69, with the 2019 Vols still a bit away on the mountaintop (26.24), meaning they’d currently be a little more than a possession favorite on this team. Still, through three games, this Tennessee team statistically belongs in the conversation of, “Who’s the second-best Tennessee team ever?” That’s high praise.

But defensively, these Vols are the conversation.

Tennessee is third nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, trailing Texas Tech and Clemson. That number – 86.2 points allowed against the average team in 100 possessions – is the best in Knoxville, ever.

These Vols are seventh nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, and sixth nationally in creating turnovers. Keon Johnson and Josiah James are Top 50 players in steal percentage. And they’ve done all of this, so far, without fouling much: 29th nationally in free throw rate allowed. In three games, UT opponents have shot only 34 free throws, and are hitting just 25.4% from the arc, 33.6% from the floor.

So yeah, very good, and very good nationally. But this early, I think the most understandable context is what other great Tennessee defensive teams have done. So here’s the list of Vol defensive efficiency via KenPom, which goes back to 1997:

1. 2021 – 86.2 points allowed vs the average team in 100 possessions

Stay tuned.

2. 1999 – 88.0

Jerry Green’s second team thrived on shot-blocking and was so tough inside with C.J. Black, Isiah Victor, and Charles Hathaway. Freshman Vincent Yarbrough also created his fair share of havoc, while Brandon Wharton and Tony Harris were strong on the perimeter. This group stumbled out of the gate after a #9 preseason ranking and had some bad losses against good SEC teams on the road, but closed with six straight wins including a 91-56 blowout of #23 Florida and the SEC East clincher in the regular season finale against #13 Kentucky, one of my favorite Tennessee games ever. They ended the regular season 20-7…then lost to Mississippi State in their first SEC Tournament game. As a four seed, they beat Delaware in round one…then got smoked by Missouri State in round two. But their ceiling was quite high, as you’ll see more in a moment.

3. 2010 – 90.4

The Elite Eight squad was solid all around defensively, especially when operating at full strength. But they excelled at taking away the three ball, with J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson, and Cameron Tatum all long enough to do so. Basketball was different even just 10 years ago, and while this team could find itself in foul trouble, their ability to make you beat them inside the arc and clean it up with Wayne Chism and Brian Williams from there almost carried them to the Final Four. In that NCAA Tournament run they held Kawhi Leonard to 12 points and San Diego State to 59, ran past 14-seed Ohio (68 points), survived a villainous 31 from Evan Turner in the Sweet 16 but kept Ohio State to 73, and lost 70-69 to Michigan State (Draymond Green with a dozen off the bench). In terms of defense, this group probably got the most out of its entire lineup than any of these teams…with the possible exception of, you know, this year.

4. 2000 – 90.9

Jerry Green, Year Three: the Vols maintained an elite shot-blocking presence and added freshman Ron Slay to their arsenal, with an incredibly deep squad capable of disrupting just about any lineup you threw their way. In the annals of Tennessee basketball heartbreak, few top this group: ranked in the Top 5 in mid-February, 24-5 at the end of the regular season and SEC Champions. They too stumbled in their first SEC Tournament game, but earned a four seed and beat the defending champs from UConn in round two. The top three seeds in the region all lost in round two, meaning the Vols were the highest ranked seed left going to the Sweet 16, where they led 8-seed North Carolina late…before faltering down the stretch. These Vols were 17th in offensive efficiency, 27th in defensive efficiency.

5. 2018 – 92.4

The most recent torchbearers, Rick Barnes’ first Vol tournament squad finished sixth nationally in defensive efficiency in 2018. While the 2019 squad gave up too many threes, which ultimately cost them in the end, the 2018 squad was elite on the arc in surrendering just 31.8% from three. James Daniel’s presence is the only personnel difference there, otherwise they were the same talented bunch that spent a month at number one the following season. Without Kyle Alexander, we saw their efficiency drop in costly fashion against Loyola Chicago.

Some of the other candidates we’d think of are just behind on this list: Kevin O’Neill’s last team is seventh, the 2008 squad is eighth, Cuonzo’s last team is ninth. They were all excellent in particular areas: O’Neill’s team inside the arc, the ’08 Vols at forcing turnovers, Cuonzo’s team at eliminating offensive rebounds.

Again, it’s early. But this Tennessee team is in the Top 10 nationally in two of the four factors, and in the Top 30 in another. They’re in the Top 30 in defending from two and from three.

It’s early. But the bar defensively isn’t just high…right now, they are the bar.