What is the most important piece of information from this game? Tennessee’s offense lost its starting quarterback midway through the second quarter, its 1B tailback to health protocols, its 1A tailback after eight carries, a starting wide receiver on the second possession, and its starting center to an ankle sprain […]
All Posts
Run/Pass Ratio with QB Uncertainty under Heupel
Our community Expected Win Total Machine has the Vols at 6.60 projected wins this week, down just a hair from 6.74 a week ago. This reflects the conversations I bet you’ve had this week: yeah, we won by 32, but it didn’t look great all the time. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh got […]
The Baseline Reading
The Vols opened +1.5 against Pittsburgh, making Saturday’s contest an excellent initial reading for the program Josh Heupel is seeking to build. Many of us have talked about how it feels like Lane Kiffin’s Week 2 test against UCLA a dozen years ago – more on that in a moment […]
Expected Win Total Machine: Week 2
The question this week: will our community expected win total for the Vols, at 6.74 going into Bowling Green, go down even in 32-point victory? Will it stay north of 6.5 wins, or will 6-6 become our most likely outcome? Expected win total is about us, but it’s also about […]
Tennessee 38 Bowling Green 6: Scanning the Radio Dial
So much of what happened last night was new. The question, which was never going to be answered last night, is how much of it will be better. Josh Heupel’s offense snapped the ball 88 times. The last time we saw Tennessee play against Texas A&M last December, they snapped […]
The Season Outlook in Expected Win Totals
It’s. Game. Day. Thanks to everyone who used the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine to make their picks for the season. Heading into tonight, here’s how Tennessee fans are feeling on the year: Total Expected Wins: 6.74 Game-by-game probabilities: Bowling Green 95.1% Pittsburgh 58.4% Tennessee Tech 97.5% […]
What Is Possible Today
Pandemic, month whatever, and the thing I’ve found most helpful during these crazy days still comes from March of 2020: If you want idiot optimism, of course, we have that too. We also spent a lot of time before, during, and immediately following the transition from Pruitt and Fulmer to […]
GRT 2021 Picks Contest
It’s back, and this time a full slate of games every week! Hey now! It’s the 2021 Gameday on Rocky Top picks contest, once again from our longtime friends at Fun Office Pools. It’s free to play – you can join our group right here. As always, the pool uses […]
The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2021 Season
All I’m saying is, if we really did give players bags of cash from McDonald’s, I feel like I could’ve been helpful in that operation. I’m intimately familiar with at least a dozen Knoxville area locations. My wife gets embarrassed when we pull up to the drive-thru and they start […]
Expected Win Total Machine: Week 1
Game week. We wanted to wait until we had a starting quarterback, officially. But being that this is, in fact, that week, let’s do this thing. You know the drill: enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game. Something closer to 100 for Bowling Green, something closer […]