Gameday on Rocky Top

LSU squeaked past Auburn and into the poll, coming in at #25 this week. It sets up the third ranked vs ranked game of this still-young season for Tennessee, and a chance for Josh Heupel to get his fourth ranked win overall.

In 2016, the Vols played four ranked vs ranked games in four weeks. Outside of that fateful stretch, Tennessee played just four other ranked vs ranked games from 2008-2021: one each in 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. In the 19 previous seasons from 1989-2007, the Vols averaged 4.4 ranked vs ranked games per year, and never played fewer than three.

With #1 Alabama, #13 Kentucky, and #2 Georgia still to come in the next five weeks, we’ve got a shot at some strength of schedule history. The Vols have played 5+ ranked vs ranked games in a single season 10 times in school history. They hit six in 1998, with 1991 holding the record at seven. Plenty of football left out there this year, but the Vols and their competition continue to look strong.

The season heads to Baton Rouge this week, with the #8 Vols opening as a four-point favorite. How are you feeling this week on Tennessee’s chances to tame the Tigers? And how many wins will we project for Tennessee this week, after landing at 9.21 during the bye week?

Every season tells a story, and a new chapter is written each week. In preseason, our Expected Win Total Machine had the Vols at 8.03 wins, just barely tipping the scales to 9-3 being more likely than 7-5. But 8-4 – which would tie the best record at Tennessee in the last 15 years – was the clear cut expectation.

One month and two huge wins in, 9-3 has become the clear cut expectation. And 10-2 is significantly more likely than 8-4 in this week’s responses:

So our best season in 15 years has become the baseline expectation. And there’s still a better chance of reaching the ceiling than the floor from here.

Tennessee continues to find itself in the Sugar Bowl in many a bowl projection. That’s still most often attached to projections that send both Georgia and Alabama to the College Football Playoff. If that happens, the third best team in the SEC is going to New Orleans. And this week, Tennessee looks the part.

The Vols will have their own opportunity to answer questions about whether that third best team is actually Kentucky (or LSU, for that matter). But it’s been helpful to see other candidates who are not on Tennessee’s schedule already take losses: Texas A&M to Appalachian State, then Arkansas to Texas A&M. Auburn now seems fully removed from that conversation.

Keep an eye on Ole Miss. Should the Rebels beat Kentucky in Oxford tomorrow, their other cross-divisional game is their annual date with Vanderbilt. So a win tomorrow likely means Ole Miss just needs to go 4-2 against the SEC West to end the season at 10-2.

A 9-3 finish for Tennessee would almost certainly end nowhere worse than the Citrus Bowl. But it can also get to New Orleans if Georgia and Alabama are in the playoffs and there’s not another 10-2 SEC squad out there somewhere.

I think there’s also a good conversation in here about Tennessee’s historical methods of defining success, and how to marry them with the changing realities of the SEC and college football. A 9-3 finish speaks for itself, since the Vols haven’t done that since 2007. If you want to talk about the Vols going 10-2 themselves, that’s a conversation for after you’ve beaten LSU, because then we’re likely talking about an expected win total greater than 9.5.

Beating LSU would also leave the Vols in control of their own destiny in the SEC East no matter the outcome of the Alabama game. That’s the first old goal: the idea that any season ending in Atlanta was a successful one. But things have changed in this division since 2007, or even 2016. Georgia’s place as defending national champions and top team in the country, depending on who you ask, is a new variable in the equation.

So we wouldn’t define the season’s full success or failure by whether the Vols win the division. But if you want to entertain the argument? You can do so even if you lose to Alabama, so long as the Vols beat LSU. The Vols would then need to beat Kentucky to keep that conversation going, but the Top 10 Cats should hold enough weight on their own to avoid the lookahead.

We’ll get our chance to shoot our shot against Georgia and Alabama; plenty to talk about in those weeks, and plenty to talk about next week headed to Baton Rouge. But in the big picture on the bye week, consider the goals Tennessee’s athletic department now sets for itself: in addition to winning SEC and national championships, earning Top 16 finishes is in the master plan. While that translates to Sweet 16 and Super Regional appearances in tournament sports, it will roughly translate to, “Can we make the playoffs?” in college football very soon.

Consider the conversations we would be having if the 12-team playoff format was in place right now. We’d still need to see more before we felt like the Vols could straight up beat Alabama or Georgia with greater certainty, and thus need to see more before we felt like the Vols could win the title. But in the current format, there are only four seats at that table to begin with. In a 12-team format, we still might be talking about the difference between 9-3 and 10-2 for the Vols…but we might also be talking about making the playoffs instead of making the Sugar Bowl.

Either way, present or future, the Vols are fully on track for a memorable season. The expectation now is that it’s our best in 15 years. And in the direction college football is headed, we would find ourselves in the conversations every team in the country wants to be in.

Much, much more to come.

Go Vols.

It’s Wednesday post-Florida, and much of the conversation around town feels like it’s on concerns with our pass defense. That’s not all bad! Way to keep moving forward and focus on how we can improve!

But in the bye week, I’m going to stay in celebration mode, thanks. Let’s spend another minute talking about that offensive performance from Saturday before we have to move on to LSU. Because what the Vols did – and did to Florida – wasn’t any other Saturday.

With Josh Heupel’s offense, we’ve come to expect fireworks. Just last week the Vols sliced up Akron for 9.66 yards per play and 63 points. Even early in year two, it’s easier to take things for granted.

And even in leaner years, we’ve seen some great offensive performances around here. Jeremy Pruitt’s 2019 team featured three 100-yard receivers in a single game, now all in the NFL. The 2016 Vols led the nation in yards per play in the month of November. And Tyler Bray’s 2012 Vols still hold a number of school records from their performance against Troy.

You can also find some truly absurd performances from out best days against bad teams. Tee Martin’s NCAA record-setting performance at South Carolina in 1998 came at 8.9 yards per play for the offense. The school record in yards per play is from the 2000 win over Kentucky, where freshman Casey Clausen threw for 362, Travis Henry ran for 139, and Travis Stephens added 93 more. The Vols averaged 10.93 yards per play.

We’ve also seen some single-game performances that were both extraordinary and important: Josh Dobbs and the Vols at South Carolina in 2014, or even what Tennessee did at Missouri last season to kick-start a ride we’re still on.

But it’s one thing to dominate against lesser competition, and another to do what the Vols did on a stage like Saturday’s.

So where does the offense’s performance against the Gators rank?

I’ve really enjoyed going back through old media guides and Tennessee’s online stats the last few days to try to put Saturday into context. To me, the most jarring stat is Tennessee’s 8.23 yards per play. How does that compare to the best the Vols have done against ranked foes? Here’s the list:

Top 10 Tennessee Offensive Performances 1989-2022

(Yards Per Play vs Ranked Teams)

10. 2001: #8 Tennessee 45 #17 Michigan 17 (Citrus Bowl) (6.99 yards per play)

Casey Clausen went for 393 yards and five touchdowns, Jason Witten outran the Michigan secondary, and the Vols ended the day with 503 total yards. Tennessee scored its 45th and final points with 13 minutes still to play.

9. 1994: Tennessee 45 #17 Virginia Tech 23 (Gator Bowl) (7.07 yards per play)

The finale of Peyton Manning’s freshman season was also the final performance for James “Little Man” Stewart, who ran for three touchdowns in a game the Vols led 35-10 at halftime. Tennessee finished with 495 yards and plenty of momentum, which they carried into a 45-5 record over the next four seasons.

8. 2001: #4 Tennessee 34 #2 Florida 32 (7.32 yards per play)

Still the greatest play-for-play football game I’ve ever seen the Vols involved in, Travis Stephens was a hero and Bobby Graham his sidekick on offense. Tennessee beat what might’ve been Steve Spurrier’s most talented Florida team by gaining 410 yards on just 56 plays; Florida gained 407 but had 20 more snaps, with a number of long drives deep into the Gainesville night. There were a total of three punts in this game. Stephens’ 226 yards came on just 19 carries, an obscene 11.9 per touch. With everything on the line, the Vols won a truly amazing football game.

7. 1996: #9 Tennessee 48 #11 Northwestern 28 (Citrus Bowl) (7.37 yards per play)

What many assumed to be Peyton Manning’s last game, before he announced his return for one more year. Peyton was 27-of-39 for 408 yards, still one of just eight 400+ yard performances in school history and at the time the most yards a Vol QB had ever thrown for in victory.

6. 1995: #6 Tennessee 41 #12 Alabama 14 (7.4 yards per play)

Tennessee’s last win over Alabama was in 1985. Enter Manning, who went 20-of-29 for 301 yards, including a touchdown to Joey Kent on play number one. Jay Graham added 114 on the ground, and this team gave us one of the greatest days to be a Tennessee Vol. As we know, streaks like this one don’t often bust easily. But on this night in Birmingham, it came apart at the seams on the first play and unraveled for hours to come. Still my favorite Tennessee memory outside of anything from 1998.

5. 1989: #8 Tennessee 31 #10 Arkansas 27 (Cotton Bowl) (7.7 yards per play)

In his freshman finale, Chuck Webb ran for a cool 250 yards against the Razorbacks, three years before they’d enter the SEC. The champs of the old SWC couldn’t keep up with the champs of the SEC, as Tennessee finished off an 11-1 campaign that ushered the program into the Decade of Dominance.

4. 2022: #11 Tennessee 38 #20 Florida 33 (8.23 yards per play)

One truth you’ll find about most of these games: they include a few snaps at the end where we’re not necessarily working the same game plan. Tennessee had 576 yards on 70 plays last week, but there has been some conversation on the play-calling after the Vols recovered Florida’s first onside kick. Leading 38-27 with four minutes to play, the Vols benefitted from a substitution penalty for 1st-and-5 at the Florida 46. From there, the next five snaps were runs for a total of 11 yards, followed by Hendon Hooker’s fourth down completion short of the sticks to Princeton Fant for another yard. That means Tennessee’s last six offensive plays of the day gained just two yards per play. Before that drive, the Vols had 564 yards on 64 snaps, 8.8 yards per play. That number would’ve ranked #2 on this Top 10, but again, most of these games feature kneel downs, clock management, etc.

Don’t lose the forest for the trees: Tennessee’s offensive performance against the Gators was an all-timer in just about any way you consider it. The Vols never punted. Hendon Hooker, in yards per attempt, had his second-best day as a Vol against Power Five competition, giving Tennessee 12.5 yards every time let one go. And I thought his diversity among targets was impressive without Cedric Tillman: five catches each for Bru McCoy, Jalin Hyatt, and Princeton Fant; three for Ramel Keyton and Jabari Small. That’s really good for a team playing without its number one receiver in a system that really doesn’t throw to tight ends and running backs much.

All told, Saturday was a Top 5 offensive performance at UT in the last 30+ years against a good team on a per play basis. Here are the three that were better:

3. 1997: #10 Tennessee 38 #13 Georgia 13 (8.26 yards per play)

Peyton Manning, meet Jamal Lewis. In the true freshman tailback’s first start, he ran for 232 yards on 22 carries, 10.5 per. Peyton Manning went 31-of-40 for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Speaking of target diversity: 11 different players caught a pass from Manning, with what I’m sure was an annoyingly similar stat line from Marcus Nash (6 for 59), Peerless Price (5 for 57), and Jermaine Copeland (also 5 for 57). This offense was simply unfair.

2. 2006: #23 Tennessee 35 #9 California 18 (8.43 yards per play)

Hello, David Cutcliffe. In the “would’ve been more but we changed the game plan” department, remember the Vols were up 35-0 on Montario Hardesty’s one-play drive of 43 yards…with 8:20 to play in the third quarter. Erik Ainge took a seat for Jonathan Crompton after that one. I’ve got Tennessee’s backups getting 88 yards in 24 plays in the final 1.5 quarters. That means Tennessee’s starters got 426 yards on 37 snaps! That’s 11.5 yards per play. Tennessee’s first three drives of the third quarter: 2 plays 80 yards, 3 plays 72 yards, 1 play 43 yards. Is that good?

1. 2021: Tennessee 45 #18 Kentucky 42 (9.81 yards per play)

Hello, Josh Heupel. In a game that still featured three kneel downs, the Vols got 461 yards in 47 snaps. Tennessee’s drives in this one:

• 1 play 75 yards TD
• 3 plays 75 yards TD
• 4 plays 39 yards fumble
• 3 plays -9 yards punt
• 7 plays 52 yards TD
• 4 plays 35 yards FG
• 3 plays 49 yards TD
• 6 plays 32 yards fumble
• 3 plays 47 yards TD
• 12 plays 57 yards missed FG
• 3 plays -8 yards kneel downs

Take away the kneel downs, and the Vols averaged 10.66 yards per play. Oddly enough, Tennessee’s last five snaps went backwards: the Vols had 2nd-and-Goal at the 5 on the previous drive to put Kentucky away, but Hendon Hooker was sacked twice for -8. So before those last five plays, the Vols averaged 11.35 yards per play. Ridiculous. How much of this game will be a blueprint, or at least a point of reference, for teams looking to beat Tennessee in the future? Control the ball and score as many points as you can, blitz the quarterback and either get a sack or give up a touchdown?

We shall see. But as a direct comparison, Tennessee’s defense was actually better against Florida than they were against Kentucky last season. The Vols led the Gators by 17 midway through the fourth quarter, and it was only truly close via onside kick. This Kentucky game was much more tight the entire ride. Hopefully, what we’re seeing in 2022 is more of an indicator of what’s to come…which is high praise, considering what we saw on this day in 2021 is, per play, the best it’s ever been done against a ranked foe at Tennessee.

Okay, so I’m fairly confident we’re going to come out pretty close to nine wins this week, making that the baseline expectation going forward. That means we expect this to be our best season in at least 15 years; the Top 10 ranking follows suit.

The real fun this week – the kind of fun you can have in the bye week – is this question:

Which is more likely: 8-4 or 10-2?

Find out here:

The big things rarely come easily. Tennessee had more reason for optimism against the Gators than ever, but Florida, to their credit, was ready.

But play-for-play, over the course of 60 minutes – including a tense final few – we saw so much of not what the Vols could be, but what they are, present tense. And what they are is enough to beat Florida, move to 4-0 on the year, and say hello to the Top 10.

And we get a whole extra week to enjoy it.

https://twitter.com/josh_dobbs1/status/1573867864116838401

Six years ago, Josh Dobbs and the Vols fell behind 21-0, then rallied for one of the great days in Neyland Stadium. Dobbs was brilliant on that day: 16-of-32 for 319 yards, four touchdowns to two interceptions, plus 17 carries for 80 yards and a score.

What word, then, do we use to describe Hendon Hooker yesterday?

22-of-28 for 349 yards, two touchdowns and, again, no interceptions. He ran 13 times for 112 yards and another score.

And much like Dobbs six years ago, who fired multiple second half touchdowns on third down, Hooker was at the helm for so many had-to-have it plays:

• Backed up deep after the Florida punt – the only punt of the entire game – the Vols had 3rd-and-10 at their own 12 with 1:15 left in the half. Hooker fired a strike to Princeton Fant right at the marker, who made a great catch for a first down. That enabled Ramel Keyton’s stupendous diving catch on the very next play.
• On the one yard line with no timeouts in the same drive, seven seconds to play, Hooker rolled out and showed great patience, hitting Bru McCoy in the back of the end zone. A crucial sequence that gave the Vols six instead of three before the half.
• A holding penalty with goal-to-go could’ve ended the next drive with just three. No problem: Hooker checked it down to Jabari Small, who walked in from 16 yards out. Over and over on Saturday, the Vols turned a negative into a positive. Penalties, sacks, and early mistakes never stopped a drive.
• Probably his individual highlight of the day: a 44-yard escape/run on the very first play of the next drive. Every time Florida scored in the early goings of the second half, the Vols answered immediately.

This was an all-time performance by a Tennessee offense. We’ve got a week to figure out just how high it might rank. The Vols averaged 8.23 yards per play against a Florida defense that surrendered 4.39 per play to Kentucky. Tennessee faced third down nine times and converted six of them. Josh Heupel and Alex Golesh put on a play-calling clinic; it’s one thing to have receivers running free against the Missouris of the world. Yesterday was something else entirely.

Defensively, the Gators picked up 6.83 yards per play, almost identical to their performance against South Florida and less than the 7.16 they picked up against Utah. Credit Anthony Richardson for making plays, especially on fourth down. Tennessee’s pressure was a lot of almost, which almost made for a frustrating afternoon. Both teams fumbled in the red zone. Richardson was obviously less accurate than Hooker, but when he hit, he hit. But credit the Vol defense for making the plays they needed to make, especially after a picture-perfect onside kick gave Florida life. Tim Banks sent pressure, and it led to victory.

We’ll see what kind of year Florida ends up having. But no matter the answer to that question, this Tennessee team – its players and coaches – have earned confidence to go against the Gators and win. Josh Heupel gets his third ranked win; for comparison, Butch Jones got his third ranked win in the Outback Bowl at the conclusion of year three. Heupel also moves to 3-3 in one-possession games, a stat we may see more of before this year is done.

Losses by Oklahoma and Arkansas will send Tennessee into the Top 10. If the Vols hit #8, it will be their highest ranking since 2006, when the Vols took #7 into October and were #8 the first week of November. There are two-thirds of this regular season left to play. And we’ll enjoy the bye, and then it’s Baton Rouge. You hit the Top 10, and they’re all big games.

This is Tennessee Football: a program with rich history and a long walk through transition. A team that can still improve.

And a team, right now, that we can believe in.

Go Vols.

The AccuWeather app says it best:

It’s great that is indeed on the table this weekend.

If you’re looking for the comparison in the “biggest game since” category, I don’t think there’s a good one available. We forget part of this, but six years ago #1 Alabama came to town to face #9 Tennessee. Rightfully so: #1 Bama did #1 Bama things, dismantling and demolishing the Vols in what remains the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October of all time. Then Tennessee’s entire season started falling apart two weeks later.

So we choose not to remember that one for our own safety, but for this part – the part leading up to kickoff – that was the biggest game around here in a very, very long time. Until it wasn’t, and it wasn’t quickly, and then quickly we had even harder things to talk about.

I think it’s safe to say even the biggest pessimist among us doesn’t imagine this Florida team doing that Alabama team things to us on Saturday, so we’re safe from that comparison. But after that one, it’s also hard to find a good comparison in the other direction. After that Alabama game, Saturday will be the game featuring the two highest-ranked teams in Neyland Stadium since 2007:

Highest Ranked vs. Ranked Games in Neyland Stadium, 2008-2022

• 2016: #1 Alabama vs #9 Tennessee
• 2022: #11 Tennessee vs #20 Florida
• 2016: #14 Tennessee vs #19 Florida
• 2012: #18 Florida vs #23 Tennessee
• 2015: #19 Oklahoma vs #23 Tennessee

None of those others really fit either, though we’d take the 2016 Florida outcome for sure. This carries not the Year Three if-not-now-when pressure of 2012 Florida and 2015 Oklahoma; the numbers next to those names were already a better fit for the Pitt game anyway.

And we won that one, which is how we got to this one.

Which is still amazing that it even exists.

At kick-off, never mind all that sentimentality and appreciation, let’s go win by a thousand. But here, on Friday, one final word to say how grateful we are that this Saturday is here.

We said this last year leading up to the Ole Miss game, how crazy it was that an opportunity like that was even available in October of Year One in Year 13 of trying to get this right.

In September of Year Two of Year 14 of trying to get this right, we might get to stop counting.

It may have to happen without Cedric Tillman. So far he and Jalin Hyatt have 35 of Tennessee’s 74 receptions, 47.3% of the Vols’ total receptions. If that percentage held the entire season, it would be the second-highest for a Vol duo in the post-Fulmer era…right behind Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman last year. It’s what this offense likes.

So without one half of its customary one-two punch, where will the Vol passing game turn? Wide receivers have 87.8% of Tennessee’s receptions through three games, an absurd number. Jacob Warren has two catches for 41 yards. Princeton Fant has three for 31. Running backs have three catches total. Might there be some options in those departments if the Vols can’t plug-and-play a replacement for Tillman in the starting lineup at receiver?

The bigger predictor of success and failure remains pass protection. When Hendon Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as Tennessee’s starter, the Vols are 7-1. The lone loss is Ole Miss last year, when he ran for 108 yards at 4.7 per attempt. When Hooker averages less than three yards per carry as UT’s starter, the Vols are 2-4. That includes the Ball State and Pitt wins this year, and the losses to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Purdue last year.

Hooker was sacked on 10.88% of his dropbacks last year vs FBS competition, a jarring number and a costly one. This year, that number is at 4.67%, but two of those games were against Akron and Ball State as you know. Pitt’s defense was more problematic. Florida, however, has struggled: they got Will Levis three times on 24 passing attempts, but went o-fer against Utah and South Florida.

So yes, there are reasons for confidence all around us. And it shows, even in the midst of 16 of the last 17 years: in our Expected Win Total Machine, Tennessee fans give the Vols a 65.7% chance of victory. If the closest comparison to this game is the Ole Miss affair last year, just in terms of opportunity? Tennessee fans came in at 47.2% on that one last year, and the Vols were +2.5. This time, of course, the Vols are -10.5 and counting.

The season total currently stands at 8.65 wins. We’re one more away from the best regular season in 15 years becoming the expectation. We’re one more away from a lot of things.

One year ago this week, the Vols lost to Florida 38-14. Josh Heupel called the game’s aftermath a turning point for his program. For all the attention to what happened to Florida after that win and its subsequent coaching change, the biggest x-factor remains Tennessee. The Vols blew out Missouri the very next week, and we’ve been moving forward ever since. As good as we can, as fast as we can has brought us here.

Here is good. Greatness awaits.

Lose, and it’ll hurt real bad. We don’t know what it’s like to fall to these guys as a 10-point favorite.

And win, and it’ll feel really great. Like really, really great. And not even in the context of as great as we remember from way back whenever. Great, because this whole thing will keep moving forward. And the story of Tennessee-Florida, and Tennessee in general, will be less about the past, and more about the present. About today.

Because today is good. And man, tomorrow could be great.

Go Vols.

The journey from our community so far:

• 8.03 expected regular season wins in the preseason
• 7.93 after Ball State
• 8.54 after Pitt

How are we feeling as the Gators come calling?

Checker Neyland, College Gameday, and our second-highest ranking of the last 15 years.

Might as well lean all the way in.

There is no other way to do it against these guys, and we’ll do it this time as a 10-point favorite. As you can see:

It’s the biggest favorite Tennessee has ever been against Florida in 32 seasons of playing annually.

The old record is -5.5 from 20 years ago. And we lost that day, painfully and inexplicably, because that’s the way this one has gone in the past. It rained something awful and we fumbled four times in five minutes. But the more painful outcome was the lost opportunity we told ourselves was there, with Steve Spurrier out and Ron Zook in. A chance for Tennessee to assert themselves in the rivalry.

Those hurt the most, the ones where you’re most sure it’s going to go differently. Live long enough on this side in this rivalry, and you’ve hurt all the hurts. Lose on Saturday, we’ll hurt it again, only as a 10-point favorite for the first time.

But if you think the response to being the biggest favorite we’ve ever been against these guys is to shrivel up, sell your tickets.

All due respect to history and your feelings, but let’s beat these guys by a thousand.

Last night Neyland Stadium was sold out for just the third time since 2016, and the fourth time since we beat these guys six years ago. It got there for Florida and Alabama in 2016, Georgia in 2017, then Ole Miss last year.

Here’s a list of games that weren’t sold out between 2010 and now:

• 2010 Oregon
• 2011 LSU
• 2016 Appalachian State
• 2018 Florida
• 2019 BYU
• 2021 Georgia

And those are just the big ones. Tennessee announced 82,203 against Pitt in 2021, and sold out Akron in 2022.

Optimism and buy-in aren’t things you have to wait for on the other side of something on Saturday. They are present and accounted for. We’ve come a long way in a short time, and the only way you do that is, appropriately, as fast as you can.

That’s how you play Florida this week. Nevermind back, and nevermind what a win would mean for the next five years of this rivalry. We want what a win would mean for Tennessee right now. Because this group has given right now a chance to matter. And that’s all you can ask for.

Vols by a thousand.

Enjoy your week.

Thanks to all who submitted an entry in our Expected Win Total Machine this week – if you’re new to our site, we run it each Monday during the season. This week, our community projects the Vols to win 8.54 regular season games. That’s up from 8.03 in the preseason and 7.93 after Ball State.

A few things I found interesting about the conversation this week:

Which is more likely, 8-4 or 9-3?

Again, the conversation here is tying the best regular season of the last 15 years, or besting it. Good company either way. As is the case with much of the verbiage this week, beating Pitt accomplishes some things, but not all things. Beating Florida will accomplish more.

This week, we’re split down the middle on those two outcomes. 9-3 gets an ever-so-slight edge for now. But these projections can look a lot different in just a few weeks; so much of the conversation with Tennessee is about the schedule.

Fans view Florida, LSU, and Kentucky almost exactly the same

All due respect to the Akron Zips, who are somewhere between 47 and 50-point underdogs coming in tomorrow night. For context, the Vols were somewhere between 24.5 and 27-point favorites against Georgia State in 2019, Wyoming in 2008, and Memphis in 1996. This is twice-as-bad territory. Players and coaches don’t want the lookahead, and that’s great. I think we’ll be okay.

Beyond Akron, the Vols have a telling stretch, but with some key space between: Florida, bye week, at LSU, Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, then Kentucky. Georgia’s next, of course. But if you want the big goals, I’d start with having a chance to take the lead in the SEC East when we go to Athens, instead of, “Can we beat Georgia?!”

To get to Athens with first place on the line, the Vols can go through Florida, LSU, and Kentucky. Do that, and it doesn’t matter if you beat Alabama or not. Again, this is the long game, and how we view it will change some between now and then.

For now, Tennessee fans view those three games – Florida, LSU, and Kentucky – almost exactly the same way:

• Florida: 60.4% chance of victory
• at LSU: 58.1%
• Kentucky: 59.2%

Whatever we may say about the Kentucky series out loud, credit the Wildcats for earning enough respect – even without a handful of head-to-head wins over UT – to be considered in the same way the Gators and Tigers are. Put those three together, and fans give the Vols 1.78 wins in those three games. Go 2-1 in that stretch, and 9-3 starts looking like the favorite.

Tennessee’s Schedule = Opportunity in the National Conversation

Over at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the Vols have the eighth best odds to make the College Football Playoff. Again, this is far more than a reflection of beating Pitt at overtime. If you’re looking for who can build the best resume, you start with teams who might be good who also play both Alabama and Georgia.

Even an 11-1 Tennessee would have a very compelling playoff argument. But, by our own admissions, we’re nowhere near that conversation yet. We’ve got the Vols at 8.5 wins at the moment. 9-3 would remain new territory for this program in the last 15 years. One thing, one win at a time.

Bowl projections work in similar fashion. When you see Tennessee projected to go to the Sugar Bowl, that’s exclusively an outcome tied to both Georgia and Alabama making the playoff. If they do, great! That means the third-best SEC team is going to New Orleans, and with Texas A&M out of that conversation for now, the Vols are certainly in it. So is Arkansas, and Ole Miss. And a handful of teams the Vols will see head-to-head.

Again: we’re at 8.5 wins this week. Stay tuned.

One difference I’m finding with this team in the national conversation: the last time the Vols entered this dialogue was 2016, and we had a whole year worth of, “We’re good!” in our sails. The 2016 team was built on being very close to very good in 2015: close losses to playoff teams, etc. We had a whole year of belief built on what that team almost was, which paid off for around six weeks in 2016 before things fell apart.

The 2022 Vols look even better on paper, in a world where “on paper” = “an excel spreadsheet.”

https://twitter.com/cfbNate/status/1570391847603675136

The Vols are also at eighth on that list, loved fairly equally by each of those models. Play-for-play, the 2022 Vols continue to perform at the highest level we’ve seen in Knoxville in the last 15 years. But so far those plays have only added up to a win over Pittsburgh. Again, there can be much more down this path very soon.

These are exciting days around here, and still quite rare among the last 15 years. The opponent next week will get all the focus, regardless of records and projections. Beat Florida, and so much more will open up for the Vols.

But even from here, the long game looks good. It’s not Sugar Bowl! Playoffs! SEC East Champs! yet. But it’s still on track to have a chance to be one of the best seasons we’ve seen around here in a long time.

Big things are coming, and coming soon.

Go Vols.