Expected Win Total Machine – LSU Week

LSU squeaked past Auburn and into the poll, coming in at #25 this week. It sets up the third ranked vs ranked game of this still-young season for Tennessee, and a chance for Josh Heupel to get his fourth ranked win overall.

In 2016, the Vols played four ranked vs ranked games in four weeks. Outside of that fateful stretch, Tennessee played just four other ranked vs ranked games from 2008-2021: one each in 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. In the 19 previous seasons from 1989-2007, the Vols averaged 4.4 ranked vs ranked games per year, and never played fewer than three.

With #1 Alabama, #13 Kentucky, and #2 Georgia still to come in the next five weeks, we’ve got a shot at some strength of schedule history. The Vols have played 5+ ranked vs ranked games in a single season 10 times in school history. They hit six in 1998, with 1991 holding the record at seven. Plenty of football left out there this year, but the Vols and their competition continue to look strong.

The season heads to Baton Rouge this week, with the #8 Vols opening as a four-point favorite. How are you feeling this week on Tennessee’s chances to tame the Tigers? And how many wins will we project for Tennessee this week, after landing at 9.21 during the bye week?

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Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 9.1.Your details: vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 65% vs Alabama: 20% vs UT-Martin: 99% vs Kentucky: 65% at Georgia: 15% vs Missouri: 85% at South Carolina: 75% at Vanderbilt: 90% Not many changes from last week. I’m just gonna touch on a couple. Positive Moves: LSU to 65% up 5% They won a game against a terrible Auburn team that nearly doubled them up on yards. LSU recovered 4 turnovers including a scoop-n-score. I think Tennessee should win big here and make a statement. UGA to… Read more »

Harley
Harley
1 year ago

A lot of close and too close to call games left. Optimism still reigns supreme 🙂 Go Vols!
Your expected win total is 9.1.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 30%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 30%
vs Missouri: 70%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 80%

Tom Turley
Tom Turley
1 year ago

Same total as last week, although I took a different route to get there. I’m probably overestimating our chances against Alabama, and Georgia can’t be as bad as they’ve looked lately. Nice comeback win by LSU, but how seriously do you take it against Auburn? I guess we’ll find out Saturday.

Your expected win total is 9.2.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 65%
at Georgia: 25%
vs Missouri: 75%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 95%

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 9.1.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 98%
vs Kentucky: 65%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

I’m coming up on the Alabama and Georgia games. They have each looked mortal at least once this season.

Andrew Cooper
Andrew Cooper
1 year ago

Holding steady at 9 wins.

Your expected win total is 9.0.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 30%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 70%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 9.5.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 100%

at Pittsburgh: 100%

vs Akron: 100%

vs Florida: 100%

at LSU: 63%

vs Alabama: 27%

vs UT-Martin: 100%

vs Kentucky: 67%

at Georgia: 26%

vs Missouri: 85%

at South Carolina: 78%

at Vanderbilt: 99%

Drinking the Orange Kool Aid and mixing in some moonshine. Actually it’s more like adding a touch of Kool aid to the moonshine.

Last edited 1 year ago by HixsonVol
Jayyyy
Jayyyy
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 8.9.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 100%

at Pittsburgh: 100%

vs Akron: 100%

vs Florida: 100%

at LSU: 60%

vs Alabama: 20%

vs UT-Martin: 98%

vs Kentucky: 60%

at Georgia: 15%

vs Missouri: 80%

at South Carolina: 60%

at Vanderbilt: 95%

Drew
Drew
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 8.6.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 55%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 95%
vs Kentucky: 50%
at Georgia: 15%
vs Missouri: 75%
at South Carolina: 70%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

I think I may be the most pessimistic person here. I don’t know that this reflects the team’s performance, just that I prefer to be pleasantly surprised.