Gameday on Rocky Top

Tennessee opened as an 8- to 11.5-point underdog to Georgia this week, with most being around the -8.5 mark. As I’m writing this, the line has settled to Georgia -7.5 to -8.5. Hat Guy’s un-eyeballed numbers had Georgia as a 16-point favorite. Let’s take a closer look at how he got there, why we should probably call in the replay officials, and what the pick should be.

First, how he got there:

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points

The Georgia scoring defense of 10.5 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents this year:

• Alabama 16.6
• Kentucky 19.9

Tennessee scored 52 points against Alabama and 44 points against Kentucky, a combined 263% of what those teams usually give up. Applying that to Georgia’s scoring defense of 10.5 results in a prediction of 27.6 points for the Vols.

Georgia’s points

The Georgia scoring offense of 41.8 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents this year:

• Alabama 43.1
• LSU 35.1

Tennessee gave up 49 points to Alabama but only 13 to LSU. Taken together, that’s 79% of what those teams usually score. Applying that to Georgia’s scoring offense of 41.8 results in a prediction of 33 points for Georgia against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 27.6, Georgia 33

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia’s points

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 21 is most similar to the following prior Georgia FBS opponents this year:

• Missouri 21.5
• South Carolina 24.6

Georgia scored 26 points against Missouri and 48 points against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 160% of what those teams usually give up, which when applied to the Vols results in a prediction of 33.6 points for the Bulldogs.

Tennessee’s points

The Tennessee scoring offense of 49.4 is most similar to the following prior Georgia FBS opponents this year:

• Oregon 42.4
• South Carolina 30.3

Georgia allowed only 3 points to Oregon and only 7 to South Carolina, a frightening 14% of what those teams usually put on the board. Applied to Tennessee, that results in a mere 6.9 points for the Vols against the Dawgs.

Estimated score: Georgia 33.6, Tennessee 6.9

Combined Estimated Score

If you put those two score predictions in a blender and mix ’em up, you end up with this:

Georgia 33.3, Tennessee 17.3 (Georgia -16)

Difference between Hat Guy’s prediction and the Vegas opening spread (UGA -8.5): 7.5

That makes this one an uneasy one for Hat Guy, meaning he’s only kinda confident about his conclusion that Georgia will cover at -8.5 points.

Eyeball adjustments

I honestly can’t tell whether its my eyeballs, my heart, my mind, or my hunger that object so strongly to the idea that this Tennessee offense is going to score only 7 points. Or 17. Or even 28, although that is at least approaching reasonableness. So let’s look closer at those numbers.

First, the analysis from Georgia’s perspective predicts only 6.9 points for the Vols. Why? Because they held an Oregon offense now averaging 42 points to a single field goal and a South Carolina offense now averaging 30 points to a single touchdown. As Hat Guy points out, the Georgia defense limited the two best offensive comps to 14% of their usual capacity. But if you don’t limit the comps to two games and instead include all games, that 14% number goes up to 41%. That’s still good, but it’s not a bankruptcy sale. Applied to Tennessee, that would mean a little over 20 points for the Vols, not 7. It would also change the combined estimated points for the Vols from 17.3 to 24. So call it Georgia 33, Vols 24 (UGA -9).

But what about that prediction of 27.6 points for the Vols from their own perspective? Is that correct? The math is right, and Tennessee’s offense scoring 263% of what the two next-best defenses usually give up sounds impressive. But when it’s applied to Georgia’s current average points allowed per game of 10.5, it still only adds up to 27.6. The fewest points Tennessee has scored this season is 34 against Pitt in Week 2. Alabama’s defense was allowing only 12.5 points per game when they played the Vols, and the Vols put 52 on them. Kentucky’s defense was allowing only 16.4 when they ran into the Heuper Drive and gave up 44. So forget the percentages and just look at what Tennessee did against really, really good defenses (hopefully) not that much different than Georgia’s: They averaged 48 points. That would make the combined points prediction for Tennessee 36 instead of 24. Even if you scraped another 10 points off the top just because it’s Georgia, you’d get a combined points prediction for the Vols of 31, three points less than any game they’ve played so far this season.

I think Tennessee’s offense has exposed disembodied Hat Guy’s Achilles Heel, namely applying percentages to super low numbers. I do think Georgia gets 33 points, give or take, and Tennessee ends up somewhere between 31 and 38. My mind says Georgia 33, Tennessee 31. Everything else in me is saying, “Nope.” Final answer: Tennessee 38, Georgia 35.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas mostly had Georgia as an 8.5-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 65-66, that translates to something like Georgia 37, Tennessee 29.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia by 9.2 (Bulldogs 33.5, Vols 24.3) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning.

Summary

• Vegas: Georgia 37, Tennessee 29 (Bulldogs -8.5)
• SP+: Georgia 33.5, Tennessee 24.3 (Georgia covers)
• Hat Guy: Georgia 33.3, Tennessee 17.3 (Georgia covers easily)
• Me: Tennessee 38, Georgia 35 (Vols win a close one)

What do y’all think?

In a four-team playoff, there may still be opportunity for the loser on Saturday. Because of that, it’s hard to quantify exactly where this game falls on the list of, you know, “biggest ever.”

But I do know this: if Clemson, TCU, and the Ohio State/Michigan winner remain undefeated, it’s very unlikely the loser is getting in. You give up control of your own destiny. So I don’t know if this will end up being remembered as the biggest game since xyz…but it very well might be. Might as well win it.

The calendar is always such a factor, and the truth is, we never really know. Other than the BCS Championship Game, we didn’t really know our favorite memories from 1998 could become some of our favorite memories ever at kickoff. This is how 2001 Florida, the only non-98 comparison to what we’ve seen this year, gets so high up the list: you knew all the stakes, the rewards and the consequences.

We don’t know all the consequences here. But we absolutely know the rewards. So how can the Vols get them?

Tennessee may be evolving beyond its most reliable predictor of success: Hendon Hooker’s rushing/sacks allowed. The Vols remain 11-1 when Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as a starter, with the lone loss coming against Ole Miss last year. He averaged 8.6 per carry against Florida, 5.6 at LSU, and 4.0 against Alabama.

But the Vols are now 3-4 when he doesn’t. One of those wins is the Pitt game, which turned ugly early and stayed that way for much of the day, an overtime affair the Vols won. But against Kentucky, Hooker ran just 10 times for 23 yards…and Tennessee rolled.

Clearly, the Vol offense can get it going even without Hooker’s legs. But I do still think pass protection is a huge piece of the equation.

Here’s a fun game I like to call:

What made Tennessee punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20

Of those seven punts in Tennessee’s four SEC wins, six came with the Vols already in front by at least two possessions. The other, of course, is the 4th-and-27 punt from last week. But you can sense a pattern: two drives stopped by OPIs, two others by sacks.

Again, not rocket science: the best way to slow down this offense is to put them in negative yardage, or hope the officials agree with your interpretation. Tennessee does remain one of the most penalized teams in the nation (122nd in penalties per game, 124th in penalty yards per game). The defending champs are fifth in flags per game and 15th in penalty yards per game. Something to keep an eye on, especially on the road.

One big question this week is impossible to answer until gametime: how much better was last year’s historic Georgia defense compared to this one? If you’re looking for Hooker’s worst performance as a runner, it’s easily that game last season: 17 carries for seven yards, sacked six times.

And yet, the Vols scored 17 points and had their chances for more:

• 1Q 7-7: 3rd-and-1 at the UT 34, Hooker run for no gain, punt
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 4th-and-4 at the UGA 17, incomplete
• 3Q 27-10 UGA: 4th-and-13 at the UGA 39 (after sacked on 2nd-and-6), incomplete
• 4Q 34-10 UGA: 3rd-and-6 at the UGA 7, Hooker sacked and fumbled

Where’s the line between the improvement of Tennessee’s offense and the rebuild/reload of Georgia’s defense?

Perhaps more important to victory on Saturday: how often can Tennessee’s own defense get off the field?

Here’s how the Vols let Georgia off the hook last year:

• 1Q 7-0 UT: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 44, Stetson Bennett run for 13 yards
• 2Q 10-7 UT: 3rd-and-8 at the UT 38, Bennett to McConkey for 14 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 30, Bennett to Mitchell for 11 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-5 at the UT 32, Bennett to Mitchell for 9 yards
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 3rd-and-10 at the UT 40, Bennett to Bowers for 14 yards

The Dawgs ended the day just 5-of-12 on third down, but each of their five conversions was at 5+ yards to go. When you get the chance to get off the field against this bunch, you have to take it.

Georgia also gashed the Vols in the red zone last year, with no real down-and-distance opportunities for the Vols to stop them. I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee’s much-improved red zone defense can make that part a factor in this year’s game.

In our expected win total machine, fans are giving the Vols a 46.1% chance of victory. On the road, that feels like a toss-up number, which says a lot about how far we’ve come. Can the Vols protect Hooker and avoid going backwards on offense? And can the defense get off the field on third-and-medium?

Do that, and we’ll be projecting 12 regular season wins come Monday.

Go Vols.

For a while this season, I found myself waiting for enough distance to be sure we were out of the wilderness. Some of this is the ghosts of 2016, for sure. But coming in, that was a good goal for the 2022 season: put together the best year in 15 years, win 9 or 10 games, compete. Make progress. Have a season where, when it ended, we could all look back at it and say, “Yep, good job.”

And now, in part I find myself reminded of the Israelites: fresh out of Egypt, but because that was all they knew for so long, they still find themselves looking back. Meanwhile, the miraculous is happening all around them. And you don’t want to miss a single step of it.

That’s still the problem, in part: we believed there were steps to this, and maybe these Vols could take one or two this year. There are certainly supposed to be steps between 7-6 and 8-0. None of us ever dreamed it could happen so fast.

In fact, that’s one of my favorite things about blogging: there are more easily accessible ways to go back and see what you thought two years ago, or fifteen years ago, or whatever. And to do so is often humbling.

After a series of low points – Kiffin leaving, Kentucky in 2011, the back half of 2016, the vulnerability of Schiano Sunday – the Vols hit the last of these places in 2020. From halftime of the Georgia game, it was a steep fall to Kentucky, still the worst loss in terms of underperforming the spread in 40 years.

But after that, two trips to Arkansas and Auburn in November 2020 really put things in perspective. Against a Razorback team that went 2-10 in consecutive years in 2018 and 2019, Sam Pittman’s year one squad turned a 13-0 halftime deficit into a 24-13 Arkansas win. In that second half, Tennessee went three-and-out three times, then four-and-out, then three-and-out, then two interceptions. (Pittman’s Arkansas teams are a good example of the kind of step-based success that would’ve been welcomed here!)

At Auburn two weeks later (the covid year had all these bye weeks that made everything, you know, longer) the Vols again jumped to a two-possession lead, watched Auburn go back in front 13-10, then fired a 100-yard pick six late in the third quarter.

Around this time, we started writing about things in terms of exile, and not just wilderness. How a stiff neck won’t get you out any faster. And not to believe the prophets who tell you this can all be over soon.

And that, of course, is the thing.

Not only are the Vols clearly out of the wilderness, two years later.

Tennessee is the number one team in the country.

The miraculous is happening all around us.

It’s in my nature to be supportive, to rally around current coaches, all that. And I come up short on that plenty still.

And sometimes we just get it wrong. I was wrong about the amount of time it would take Tennessee to move forward from two years ago.

But I’m not sure I should have been.

We fans all want the sure thing, which never really exists. No one believed Josh Heupel was it two Januarys ago. And the longer you’ve been away, the more your stomach growls.

You don’t get out of the wilderness with a stiff neck. I think it’s more about simple obedience. Which, in this case, was the very non-rocket science answer of:

• Hire an athletic director who is really good at their job
• Let them hire a football coach who is also really good at his job

For all the ups and downs of a season that, if Tennessee makes it to the national championship game, is still only 53% over? My most emotional moment remains the morning of the Alabama game, watching the opening of College Gameday. Watching a song I’ve poked fun at more often than not. A song Tennessee used to be in, and then they took us out.

Even if Tennessee wins it all this year and Heupel stays forever, we won’t always be ranked number one. You can also miss the miracle of the moment by looking too far ahead. But right now, Tennessee is in the national championship conversation. One that’s getting ready to expand to 12 teams.

That’s the goal. Be there. And right now, the Vols certainly are.

And then when you make it all the way to the top? Man, be grateful.

I have no idea what’s left in these last 5-7 games. But we’re way past belief now, and into expectation. It’s Heupel’s own line about not putting a timetable on ourselves, just being as good as we can as fast as we can.

And this team is much better, much faster than it had any right to be.

There will be more time in the off-season to dive into all that. I simply use it today as a way of helping us not miss the miraculous.

Because it is happening all around us.

Go Vols.

An awesome season for the Vols has unfortunately not translated into a good year for Hat Guy. He started by accidentally deleting the first two weeks of data and has spent most of the rest of the season trying to touch 50% like its an illusion in a 3D movie. And then, last week smelled like dead skunk in a dumpster: 15-24 (38.46%) overall, 3-8 (27.27%) over the usually reliable threshold, 3-6 (33.33%) in the usually even more reliable sweet spot, and only 2-5 (28.57%) in the sweet spot games that also agreed with SP+. For the season, Hat Guy is now 165-197 (45.58%) overall, 44-51 (46.32%) over the threshold, 32-37 (46.38%) in the sweet spot, and 15-19 (44.12%) in the sweet spot/SP+.

Meanwhile, SP+ is doing okay, but also below its usual standard: 237-234-3 (50.3%) against “early week spreads.”

But it’s onward and forward. Below are Hat Guy’s picks for Week 10 of the 2022 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what he’s doing when he places game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not self-evident, spreads matter.

Hat Guy 2022 Week 10 Picks

This week, there are seven games in the sweet spot, only three of which also agree with SP+:

• Wake Forest at NC State (NC State +3.5);
• Tulane at Tulsa (Tulane -7); and
• Texas State and ULM (Texas State to win a pick ’em).

Hat Guy also likes Air Force to cover -6 against Army because it’s both over a high threshold and agrees with SP+.

Now two-thirds of the way home, we know a few things. The community will project the Vols to win 11 regular season games this week through some degree of rounding; we’re all mostly curious to see the Georgia number. During Alabama week, fans gave the Vols a 38.3% chance of victory in Knoxville. But once we got that victory, the Georgia numbers have consistently been higher than that. How high are we going this week? How many of us are going 51% or better?

Missouri’s win at South Carolina makes it easier to see that last stretch as a whole. The Tigers are now 4-4 with New Mexico State left on the schedule, so they need one for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 5-3 and can get there via Vanderbilt this week, before closing with the Gators, Vols, and Tigers. We predict those expected win percentages will be high.

All the advanced math conversation will really be about the College Football Playoff poll, released tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET. But even playing Georgia at any version of #1 through #3, we won’t really be able to learn a whole lot of relevant information about how the committee sees the Vols until next week. If Tennessee loses, where the Vols land in comparison to Clemson and TCU would be of particular importance, though they’ll both be tested on Saturday. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech at noon; Clemson is at Notre Dame at 7:30.

And of course, if Tennessee beats Georgia, projections will be irrelevant.

Enjoy the week!

Three yards and a cloud of dust has sprouted into enormous green pastures. The notion that a super-sonic offense will always be paired with a gassed and overburdened defense is no longer a given. And this particular version of this proud program appears to be callously indifferent to some of the most cherished maxims of the man whose name is on the stadium. What world are we living in?

Offense

Goodness gracious. First, throw out that stupid 4th down conversion percentage stat from two years ago. (Tied at No. 20 with 10 other teams, the Vols were 67% (16 of 24) on 4th down in 2020 while the nation’s best team on 4th down that season was 100% . . . on one single solitary attempt). So, yeah, toss that thing out. Then, rejoice in the realization that the worst these 2022 Vols are in any offensive category (No. 41 in Sacks Allowed) is better than the best they were prior to the arrival of the Heuper Drive. Blood, blood, blood, and more blood, and then suddenly, “Hey, everybody! The grass is actually greener over here! No, seriously! It’s like a putting green!”

Defense

Do all the double-takes you want on that. I’m on at least four and counting. It doesn’t change. It was accepted as fact when Heupel arrived that a fast offense will always share the same bed with a bad defense. It’s still accepted as fact. Except that right now it’s not true at all.

Yeah, there’s some bleeding there at the bottom, but never mind. The defensive stat that will always matter most is how many points you let the other team put on the board, and right now, the Vols are allowing only 21 points per game, good for 26th in the nation. All of the other defensive stats merely tell the story of how the team is keeping opponents from scoring. So how are they doing it?

By taunting the opponent from the turrets of a fortified castle guarded by a shark-infested 20-yard poison moat. Go ahead and have your fun with your 80 yards (but no running allowed.) And the red zone and the end zone? These are ours. Enter at your own risk.

Special Teams

As Will said earlier, poor Paxton Brooks. And Tennessee has only punted 18 times this season. The national average is about 35. It’s okay.

Turnovers and Penalties

These guys are seriously challenging the veracity of Neyland’s First Maxim. And now that I go back and re-read all of the maxims (the regularly-recited ones anyway), I think we’re in danger of committing the heresy of re-writing all of them.

Early in the fourth quarter, a middle-aged thought occurred to me: we could leave. Tennessee was safely ahead 37-6, Kentucky showed no signs of aggression on offense, this thing was headed towards a certain finish. Fifteen years ago I was in my mid-20s, when you welcome night games. Now there are adult responsibilities to attend to, etc. We could leave.

We did not.

And I really enjoyed having different versions of that conversation at church this morning. There were more opportunities to leave early in those last fifteen years than any of us wanted. Now, every week feels like an opportunity – a gift – just to watch this team, to take it all in.

This week’s edition of that included:

Poor old Paxton Brooks, loneliest guy on the team, just tear-dropping a pair of punts inside the Kentucky three yard line. Just because we don’t do it don’t mean we ain’t good at it! Give him a chance! (…not really, but good to know it’s there when we need it!)

Doneiko Slaughter, who in 2020 started as a true freshman in game one at South Carolina, then fell far down the depth chart. The Vols continue to be thin and banged up in the secondary, here comes Will Levis, Kentucky looking to cut it to 20-13 with less than five minutes to play in the first half:

What a hit leading to the pick by Juwan Mitchell pic.twitter.com/NSSdOksP8w

— Joe Broback (@joebroback) October 30, 2022

This tweet, from the always helpful SportSource Analytics:

The @Vol_Football team is scoring an FBS-best 1.86 points per minute of possession. This is 18% better than any other FBS #CollegeFootball team in 2022. pic.twitter.com/KaPG84HE1R

— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) October 30, 2022

And last, but certainly not least, Tennessee’s basketball team walking over to say hello to the Kentucky fans. Of all the is-this-an-alternate-dimension things we’ve seen in Neyland Stadium this year, this one impressively holds it own. They were greeted with the kind of response you get from a proud fanbase, frustrated and feeling it has few alternatives when you haven’t won enough recently to make a difference against the other team.

A funny moment from the 1st half: Tennessee recognized its men's basketball team. And the Volunteers looked like they were having some fun trash talk with the Kentucky fan section. pic.twitter.com/1cGsCsravn

— Tyler Greever (@Tyler_Greever) October 30, 2022

All of these things happened in game eight of this 2022 football season, just some of just one week’s worth of a season that is increasingly difficult to describe but has never been easier to enjoy.

And next, in game nine, it’s #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee.

On paper, we now have our second entry of the season on this list:

Highest Ranked vs Ranked Games since 1968

• 1998: #1 Tennessee vs #2 Florida State (BCS Championship) (W 23-16)
• 2022: #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee
• 1997: #2 Nebraska vs #3 Tennessee (Orange Bowl) (L 42-17)
• 1996: #2 Tennessee vs #4 Florida (L 35-29)
• 1997: #2 Florida vs #4 Tennessee (L 33-20)
• 1999: #2 Tennessee at #4 Florida (L 23-21)
• 2001: #2 Florida vs #5 Tennessee (W 34-32)
• 1990: #3 Auburn vs #5 Tennessee (T 26-26)
• 1995: #4 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl) (W 20-14)
• 1998: #2 Florida at #6 Tennessee (W 20-17 OT)
• 1999: #3 Nebraska vs #6 Tennessee (Fiesta Bowl) (L 31-21)
• 2022: #3 Alabama at #6 Tennessee (W 52-49)

Which, seen through this lens, would make this the biggest regular season game in the history of the program.

But these days are indeed new. All of those other contests took place in the BCS era or before. When Tennessee and Florida met in 1996-99 and in 2001, it felt like all or nothing, even in September. Win, and your dreams were not just available, but attainable. Lose, and the thrust of your entire season became about hoping Florida would lose twice.

Wherever Tennessee appears in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff poll, arguments about Georgia will get resolved four days later. You want to leave the Dawgs at #1 as the undefeated defending champs, fine. You like the Vols at #1 because of the resume, fine. Somebody’s going to win on Saturday.

But for the one who doesn’t, in a playoff world that we’re learning to navigate in real time together? It’s not over. And either us or Georgia wouldn’t need anything as unlikely as two mid-90s Florida losses to still get in.

I still worry about what a 12-team playoff might do to the regular season sometimes; that’s a conversation for a different day. But now, we’ll get to have it from personal experience. What last night’s win and next week’s clash would and wouldn’t mean, who knows.

But I know last night was incredible in ways that aren’t exclusively tied to being 8-0. And I know next week will be incredible in all the ways that are, no matter how many teams are in the playoffs.

Perfection is hard. And when you actually get it, like the Vols did in 1998, it becomes harder to live with anything less.

But introducing a little grace into the story – especially from the viewpoint of 15 years outside the national story – is usually a good idea.

It will not make us want to win any less on Saturday, a historic clash by any definition. But whether the loser gets in or not, I think grace helps put everything in perspective.

We’ve seen a lot in Neyland, and had plenty of notions to leave.

But stay, and you get to see the whole picture, the whole thing in motion. There is so much to take in, even more to enjoy right now. Wherever this story is headed next, the Vols are a gift.

And I cannot wait to see what they do with next week’s opportunity.

Tennessee is living this incredible combination of things that would be considered good in any season, plus x number of years since an entire season was considered good. At some point, the conversation has to include how you can’t include it all. Too much fun since much too long, etc.

Each week, I find myself drawn to some hilarious new representation of the intersection of these two ideas. This time, it’s the fact that the Vols have now overtaken the service academies on the yards per attempt leaderboard:

Passing Yards Per Attempt

1. Tennessee, 11.4, 226 attempts
2. Air Force, 11.0, 60 attempts
3. Army, 10.8, 63 attempts
4. Ohio State, 10.5, 208 attempts

No one else in college football is in double digits.

This is the whole team number, of course, so Joe Milton and others are in there. For individual quarterbacks, Hendon Hooker still leads the country at 10.8 yards per attempt. C.J. Stroud is just behind at 10.6. And tied for third: Will Levis, at 10.0.

The biggest difference between those two quarterbacks continues to be interceptions: five for Levis, just the one for Hooker. But for the entire offense, the Vols are still the much more explosive team.

And not just compared to Kentucky.

30+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 32
2. TCU, 27
3. UCF, 26
4. North Texas, 26 (8 games)
5. Ohio State, 25
6. Alabama, 24 (8 games)

40+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 21
2. North Texas, 17 (8 games)
3. Army & Memphis, 15

The Vols are averaging 4.6 30+ yard plays per game, and 3 40+ yard plays per game. Among power five schools that have played seven games, Ohio State and TCU are next on the 40+ yard play list at two per game.

If those numbers held for the Vols, here’s how they would compare to the national leaders in previous years:

Most 30+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	30+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	4.6
2021	Liberty/UTEP	3.3
2020	Arkansas St	4.0
2019	UCF	4.9
2018	Ole Miss	4.3
2017	Oklahoma St	4.4
2016	Western KY	4.4
2015	Baylor	4.5
2014	Marshall	4.1
2013	Baylor	4.3
2012	Baylor	4.4
2011	Houston	4.0
2010	Hawaii	4.0

Most 40+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	40+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	3.0
2021	Kent State	2.0
2020	UCF	2.4
2019	Memphis	2.5
2018	Oklahoma	2.4
2017	Oklahoma	2.6
2016	Oklahoma	2.5
2015	Baylor/TTU	2.4
2014	Baylor/ColoSt	2.2
2013	Baylor	2.8
2012	Baylor	2.5
2011	Houston	2.5
2010	San Diego St	2.1

In the last 12 years, no team has finished a season averaging 3+ 40 yard plays per game. The Vols are on that pace right now. And in the last 12 years, the only other team to average more than 4.6 30 yard plays per game is Josh Heupel’s 2019 UCF squad.

When we say this has a chance to be the most explosive offense of the playoff era, and beyond? It’s not just because we’re wearing orange.

You can see in the 40+ yard plays chart the spread of these concepts, from Baylor’s on-field rise following RGIII’s Heisman in 2011, to Oklahoma in the years following Heupel’s presence there. There’s a progression over the course of the last decade from “fun new Big 12 offense” to “best team in the Big 12 is doing it”. And now, to the Vols, who are so far doing it better than any of their predecessors.

Coming into the Alabama game, the Vols were averaging 2.8 40+ yard plays per game, and the Tide defense had only given up three 40+ yard plays the entire season. How will this work against these guys, we wondered?

Quite well, as it turns out. The Vols didn’t slow down for Bama. And that gives me reason to believe we won’t be doing something different with Kentucky, who is 14th nationally in 30+ yard plays allowed with just nine.

In fact, last year’s meeting between the Vols and Cats might be the current peak for Heupel’s offense at UT. It still is from a yards per play perspective against a ranked opponent. The Vols had 461 yards in 47 snaps last season in Lexington. They punted once.

And, of course, they almost lost. That game last year was not just informative as Heupel’s first ranked win here, but a picture of how two teams playing completely different styles can still go blow for blow. Kentucky never punted. Each team missed a field goal. The Vols fumbled inside the Kentucky 30, where they were looking to go up 21-7. And Levis fired a pick six to Alontae Taylor, giving Tennessee a crucial two-possession lead.

The Cats were also stopped on 4th-and-4, 4th-and-7, and finally 4th-and-10 to end the game.

It continues to be no joke to suggest that every stop the Tennessee defense gets creates an incredible opportunity for separation. History shows the Vols are going to swing for the fences, regardless of opponent, and did that better against this opponent last year than just about any other. Kentucky is capable of returning fire, just in a very different and frustrating fashion. In this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols a 73.2% chance of victory and project 10.71 regular season wins.

That’s plenty of words to say this: Get stops. Hit bombs. The Vols are doing the first part better than they were last year. And they’re doing the second part better than any offense of the playoff era.

Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

Last week our community win total moved to 10.72 regular season wins. Here’s the week-by-week total:

This week’s win total machine is at the bottom of this post; I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number come down just a hair, as last week’s total includes that Monday morning feeling of having just beaten Alabama. But no matter how you look at it…we’ve come a long way in a hurry.

On October 10, 2020, Tennessee led #3 Georgia 21-17 at halftime. After two turnovers, it was still within reach at 23-21 Georgia with 35 seconds left in the third quarter. The Dawgs found the end zone on 3rd-and-7 from the 21, the Vols went three-and-out, and Georgia added two more scores from there for a 44-21 win.

The Vols were close for a half, then had a turnover-induced setback to leave us with a similar end result to our previous three encounters with Georgia. Still, forward progress seemed available and attainable. The Vols welcomed Kentucky to Neyland Stadium the following Saturday.

In pre-covid days, October 17 was our bye week, so I was at my sister-in-law’s wedding. I wasn’t there in person to witness what happened or describe its atmosphere. The radio told me the Vols turned it over on four consecutive possessions, two of them pick sixes. Even so, it was only 17-7 at halftime.

To open the third quarter, the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at their own 29. Eric Gray got a yard, and Tennessee punted. And a Kentucky offense that had been completely bottled up in the first half came to life, and took it from Tennessee. 75 yards in 11 plays, never facing more than 3rd-and-1, and a three-possession lead. The Vols punted once more. Kentucky’s punter never saw the field again.

The 34-7 victory for the Wildcats remains Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread in 40+ years, favored by 6.5 and losing by 27. It wasn’t the last straw for the previous administration. But in hindsight, the Vols got no closer to forward progress than at halftime of the Georgia game the week before. And six quarters later, the bottom fell out.

That was two years ago. That was the last time Kentucky came to Neyland Stadium.

And there may be no better point from which to measure the growth of this program than what has transpired since then.