| Hat Guy's Picks vs Opening Spreads | |||||
| All FBS Games | Over Threshold | Sweet Spot | Sweet Spot + SP+ | SP+ | |
| Week 3 | 29-20 (59.18%) | 14-9 (60.87%) | 8-8 (50%) | 2-3 (40%) | 22-27 (44.90%) |
| Week 4 | 25-34 (42.37% | 6-11 (35.29% | 5-8 (38.46%) | 2-1 (66.67) | 24-35 (40.68%) |
| Week 5 | 22-33 (40% | 5-5 (50%) | 4-4 (50% | 2-2 (50% | 28-27 (50.91%) |
| Week 6 | 29-28 (50.88%) | 7-5 (58.33%) | 5-1 (83.33% | 3-1 (75%) | 27-30 (47.37%) |
| Week 7 | 22-29 (43.14%) | 3-9 (25%) | 3-8 (27.27%) | 2-5 (28.57%) | 27-24 (52.94%) |
| Week 8 | 23-29 (44.23% | 6-4 (60%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 2-2 (50%) | 25-27 (48.08%) |
| Week 9 | 15-24 (38.46%) | 3-8 (27.27% | 3-6 (33.33%) | 2-5 (28.57%) | 19-20 (48.72% |
| Season | 165-197 (45.58%) | 44-51 (46.32%) | 32-37 (46.38% | 15-19 (44.12%) | 172-190 (47.51%) |
An awesome season for the Vols has unfortunately not translated into a good year for Hat Guy. He started by accidentally deleting the first two weeks of data and has spent most of the rest of the season trying to touch 50% like its an illusion in a 3D movie. And then, last week smelled like dead skunk in a dumpster: 15-24 (38.46%) overall, 3-8 (27.27%) over the usually reliable threshold, 3-6 (33.33%) in the usually even more reliable sweet spot, and only 2-5 (28.57%) in the sweet spot games that also agreed with SP+. For the season, Hat Guy is now 165-197 (45.58%) overall, 44-51 (46.32%) over the threshold, 32-37 (46.38%) in the sweet spot, and 15-19 (44.12%) in the sweet spot/SP+.
Meanwhile, SP+ is doing okay, but also below its usual standard: 237-234-3 (50.3%) against “early week spreads.”
But it’s onward and forward. Below are Hat Guy’s picks for Week 10 of the 2022 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what he’s doing when he places game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not self-evident, spreads matter.
Hat Guy 2022 Week 10 Picks
| Away | Home | Opening | Hat Guy | Conclusion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Spread | Pick | Spread | Favorite... | ||
| Michigan State | Illinois | Illinois | -15 | Illinois | -14.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Clemson | Notre Dame | Clemson | -3.5 | Clemson | -3.7 | Covers |
| Arizona | Utah | Utah | -17 | Utah | -16.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Massachusetts | Connecticut | Connecticut | -15 | Connecticut | -14.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -3.5 | Virginia Tech | -4.7 | Covers |
| Troy | Louisiana-Lafayette | Troy | -4 | Troy | -2.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Hawai'i | Fresno State | Fresno State | -23 | Fresno State | -24.4 | Covers |
| Marshall | Old Dominion | Marshall | -1 | Marshall | -2.7 | Covers |
| Central Michigan | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois | -4.5 | Northern Illinois | -2.5 | Doesn't cover |
| California | USC | USC | -18.5 | USC | -16.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Buffalo | Ohio | Buffalo | -1.5 | Buffalo | -4.1 | Covers |
| Duke | Boston College | Duke | -10 | Duke | -12.8 | Covers |
| South Alabama | Georgia Southern | South Alabama | -5 | South Alabama | -7.9 | Covers |
| Houston | SMU | SMU | -2 | SMU | -5 | Covers |
| Georgia State | Southern Mississippi | Southern Mississippi | -2.5 | Southern Mississippi | -5.6 | Covers |
| Maryland | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -6.5 | Wisconsin | -3.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Alabama | LSU | Alabama | -13 | Alabama | -9.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Oklahoma State | Kansas | Oklahoma State | -3.5 | Oklahoma State | -7.9 | Covers |
| Texas | Kansas State | Texas | -1 | Kansas State | -3.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Kentucky | Missouri | Kentucky | -1.5 | Kentucky | -6.1 | Covers |
| Oregon | Colorado | Oregon | -30.5 | Oregon | -25.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Colorado State | San Jose State | San Jose State | -21.5 | San Jose State | -26.1 | Covers |
| Penn State | Indiana | Penn State | -14 | Penn State | -18.8 | Covers |
| Auburn | Mississippi State | Mississippi State | -10.5 | Mississippi State | -15.9 | Covers |
| West Virginia | Iowa State | Iowa State | -6 | Iowa State | -0.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Washington State | Stanford | Washington State | -4 | Washington State | -9.9 | Covers |
| South Carolina | Vanderbilt | South Carolina | -7.5 | South Carolina | -13.6 | Covers |
| BYU | Boise State | Boise State | -8 | Boise State | -14.2 | Covers |
| Western Michigan | Bowling Green | Bowling Green | -2.5 | Bowling Green | -8.9 | Covers |
| South Florida | Temple | South Florida | -3.5 | South Florida | -9.9 | Covers |
| Ohio State | Northwestern | Ohio State | -38 | Ohio State | -44.5 | Covers |
| Middle Tennessee | Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | -2.5 | Middle Tennessee | -9.8 | Covers |
| Oregon State | Washington | Washington | -4 | Oregon State | -3.4 | Doesn't cover |
| UCLA | Arizona State | UCLA | -9.5 | UCLA | -17 | Covers |
| Tennessee | Georgia | Georgia | -8.5 | Georgia | -16 | Covers |
| Navy | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -21 | Cincinnati | -13.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Florida International | North Texas | North Texas | -22 | North Texas | -14 | Doesn't cover |
| Iowa | Purdue | Purdue | -4.5 | Iowa | -3.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Michigan | Rutgers | Michigan | -25.5 | Michigan | -34 | Covers |
| James Madison | Louisville | Louisville | -10 | Louisville | -1.3 | Doesn't cover |
| UTEP | Rice | Rice | -3 | UTEP | -6.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Appalachian State | Coastal Carolina | Appalachian State | -1 | Appalachian State | -10.8 | Covers |
| UCF | Memphis | UCF | -5.5 | UCF | -15.7 | Covers |
| North Carolina | Virginia | North Carolina | -9.5 | North Carolina | -20.5 | Covers |
| Texas Tech | TCU | TCU | -9.5 | TCU | -20.7 | Covers |
| Wake Forest | North Carolina State | Wake Forest | -3.5 | North Carolina State | -7.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Tulane | Tulsa | Tulane | -7 | Tulane | -18.3 | Covers |
| Florida | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | -3.5 | Florida | -8.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Florida State | Miami (Florida) | Florida State | -8 | Florida State | -19.7 | Covers |
| Texas State | Louisiana-Monroe | Texas State | 0 | Texas State | -12.8 | Covers |
| UNLV | San Diego State | San Diego State | -6.5 | UNLV | -8.7 | Doesn't cover |
| UTSA | UAB | UTSA | -2 | UAB | -15.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Syracuse | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | -3 | Syracuse | -14.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Minnesota | Nebraska | Minnesota | -10.5 | Minnesota | -28.4 | Covers |
| New Mexico | Utah State | Utah State | -15 | New Mexico | -3 | Doesn't cover |
| Ball State | Kent State | Kent State | -5 | Ball State | -14.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Air Force | Army | Air Force | -6 | Air Force | -26.9 | Covers |
| Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -3.5 | Baylor | -22.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Western Kentucky | Charlotte | Western Kentucky | -16.5 | Western Kentucky | -49.2 | Covers |
| Liberty | Arkansas | Arkansas | -14.5 | Liberty | -18.3 | Doesn't cover |
This week, there are seven games in the sweet spot, only three of which also agree with SP+:
- Wake Forest at NC State (NC State +3.5);
- Tulane at Tulsa (Tulane -7); and
- Texas State and ULM (Texas State to win a pick ’em).
Hat Guy also likes Air Force to cover -6 against Army because it’s both over a high threshold and agrees with SP+.