Now two-thirds of the way home, we know a few things. The community will project the Vols to win 11 regular season games this week through some degree of rounding; we’re all mostly curious to see the Georgia number. During Alabama week, fans gave the Vols a 38.3% chance of victory in Knoxville. But once we got that victory, the Georgia numbers have consistently been higher than that. How high are we going this week? How many of us are going 51% or better?
Missouri’s win at South Carolina makes it easier to see that last stretch as a whole. The Tigers are now 4-4 with New Mexico State left on the schedule, so they need one for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 5-3 and can get there via Vanderbilt this week, before closing with the Gators, Vols, and Tigers. We predict those expected win percentages will be high.
All the advanced math conversation will really be about the College Football Playoff poll, released tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET. But even playing Georgia at any version of #1 through #3, we won’t really be able to learn a whole lot of relevant information about how the committee sees the Vols until next week. If Tennessee loses, where the Vols land in comparison to Clemson and TCU would be of particular importance, though they’ll both be tested on Saturday. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech at noon; Clemson is at Notre Dame at 7:30.
And of course, if Tennessee beats Georgia, projections will be irrelevant.
Enjoy the week!
I’ve got the Vols at 11.21 regular season wins. I love having to use the “regular season” qualifier at this point. 51% against Georgia.
Mine is now up to 11.1. Wow! Preseason my most optimistic was just over 9.0. vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 100% vs Alabama: 100% vs UT-Martin: 100% vs Kentucky: 100% at Georgia: 40% vs Missouri: 85% at South Carolina: 85% at Vanderbilt: 95% I put us at 40% to beat UGA based mostly on the game being played in Athens, and how good their secondary might be. Honestly, I have zero idea how that game will turn out. I do believe Tennessee finds the end zone multiple times. But UGA… Read more »
I have them at 11.2 wins. I’ve got the Georgia game as a 50-50 toss up. That is a sentence I never thought I’d write or say this year.
Your expected win total is 11.5.
Your details
at Georgia: 49%
vs Missouri: 99%
at South Carolina: 99%
at Vanderbilt: 99%
Go Vols!
Yep, this one might best represent the fanbase’s feelings on Monday morning.
Your expected win total is 11.3.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 90%
at South Carolina: 90%
at Vanderbilt: 99%
Why not?
Going 50/50 against UGA
Missouri and SC don’t look leagues better than UK so I’m feeling those games will be similar.
Sorry Vandy. Just don’t see it.
11.1 for me. Still don’t like our chances between the hedges.
at Georgia: 35%
vs Missouri: 90%
at South Carolina: 85%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Your expected win total is 11.4.
Your details:
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 98%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 99%
If the Vol defense continues to play like it did Saturday, we can beat Georgia or anybody else. I actually think Georgia is a better match for us than Alabama, but we will miss the electric atmosphere in Neyland. Even the Dawg fans are expressing relief that they get UT at home.
Your expected win total is 11.4.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: 55%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 98%
Your expected win total is 11.2.at Georgia: 49%
vs Missouri: 90%
at South Carolina: 85%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
This can’t be real life
What a world that I, the resident pessimist in the comment section, am projecting exactly 11.0 wins.
11-1 is my expectation! What is this world? WHAT DO I DO WITH MY HANDS?!
Your expected win total is 11.0.Your details:
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Keep holding on to your cigar and enjoy the ride!
Wow… never would have thought we would be at this point this year. I am not counting on it, but a perfect regular season is within reach. How unbelievable would that be? Go Vols!
Total = 11.1
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Your expected win total is 11.4. Your details: at Georgia: 50% vs Missouri: 95% at South Carolina: 95% at Vanderbilt: 99% I am all over the place with Georgia. Hat Guy says 16% for that game and 100% for the other three. Digging into Hat Guy’s rationale, that 16% is based on a super low point total for the Vols, which is very difficult to believe. So far, nobody has stopped this offense, so how many points do you assign the Vols? In the end, I went with 38 points, 10 points lower than their average. Hat Guy has a consensus… Read more »
Your expected win total is 11.3.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 100%
Your expected win total is 11.4.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: 50%
vs Missouri: 99%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 99%