Category Archives: Football

Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.

Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy

From Kentucky’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 20
• Missouri 23.3
• Georgia 14
• Ball State 29

Kentucky’s points against those teams:

• Florida 33
• Missouri 21
• Georgia 13
• Ball State 44

Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 33.9
• Florida 29.1
• Vanderbilt 27.8
• Georgia 40.1

Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 38
• Florida 14
• Vanderbilt 28
• Georgia 51

Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%

Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6

From Tennessee’s perspective

Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 25.1
• Florida 20
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Alabama 16.5

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Florida 16
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%

Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Alabama 30.6
• Texas A&M 32.3
• Florida 29.1
• UTSA 29

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Alabama 34
• Texas A&M 13
• Florida 29
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
• Vegas current: Same
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)

What do y’all think?

A year from now, conversations about #21 Tennessee would start with, “Okay, we’re nine spots out of the playoff.”

There are always opportunities to improve one’s resume in the SEC, and that’s especially true for the Vols this season. In these changing rhythms, consider this:

• Alabama was the first ranked opponent Tennessee faced. The last time the Vols didn’t play a ranked foe until October was 1982.
• The Vols should play two ranked opponents in the last three games of the regular season (#16 Missouri, #1 Georgia). The last time the Vols played two ranked foes in the last three games (non-pandemic) was 1958!

Between here and there is Kentucky: one of the reasons the Vols didn’t close with ranked foes for a long time, but currently riding seven straight years of bowl eligibility. The Cats started hot, then cooled immediately: beat Florida by 19, lost to Georgia and Missouri by a combined 55.

Everyone is more human this season. In SP+, the only breakaway team is the one at the center of the controversy this week in Ann Arbor…and even they would be just fifth overall in last year’s ratings. Behind them are the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs, who this week would be about a six point favorite in Knoxville. Alabama is next, who the Vols just feel like they let get away in Tuscaloosa.

And in Lexington, the match-up is almost dead even in SP+.

This season is taking on the feel of some of those late Fulmer teams: when the margins are thinner, it feels like anything can happen. Sometimes you get November 2006, when multiple ranked teams got the best of a depleted Vol squad. Sometimes you get November 2007, when multiple unranked teams almost got the best of a young Vol squad…but Tennessee won the East.

That option, by the way, is still alive and well. When the two-time national champs look as mortal as they do, it’s not crazy to ask for a stub of the toe against Florida, Missouri, or Ole Miss. Any one of those (and additional losses from Florida if it’s the Gators) would set up November 18 as an SEC East title game, if the Vols can get there without another defeat. And if not, Tennessee would still get to take a shot at the number one team in the land.

There is incredibly meaningful football available in November, and not just next year in an expanded playoff field. To do that, the Vols have to finish October the way they started it. On the other side of frustration – for both the Vols and Kentucky – is an important football game. Move on, and you can keep moving on.

Go Vols.

No. 19 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama square off this afternoon in Tuscaloosa at 3:30. CBS has the broadcast. The only real competition for eyeballs at that time is No. 19 Washington State at No. 8 Oregon on ABC. Vols fans probably want to see the Cougars knock the Ducks down a peg in that one.

The day kicks off at noon with a Big 10 Top 10 matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State on Fox. And the evening slate features two Top 25 matchups in No. 17 Duke at No. 4 Florida State on ABC at 7:30 and No. 16 Utah at No. 10 USC at 8:00 on Fox. Root for the underdogs in those.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 21, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog to the Crimson Tide with an over/under of 48. As I write this, the Vols are now +8.5, and the over/under is 47.5. Hat Guy thinks it’s more of a coin flip.

Tennessee vs Alabama, according to Hat Guy

From Alabama’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas 16.3
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Mississippi 23.8
• Arkansas 25.1

Alabama’s points against those teams:

• Texas 24
• Texas A&M 26
• Mississippi 24
• Arkansas 24

Alabama’s offensive premium/discount: 115%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 32.3
• Mississippi State 30.2
• Texas 35
• Arkansas 29.9

Alabama’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Mississippi State 17
• Texas 34
• Arkansas 21

Alabama’s defensive premium/discount: 72%

Estimated score: Alabama 19.6, Tennessee 23.4

From Tennessee’s perspective

Alabama’s defense is allowing an average of 16 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas A&M 19.9
• Florida 20
• UTSA 27.7
• South Carolina 31.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 123%

Alabama’s offense is scoring an average of 30.1 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 29.1
• South Carolina 29
• Texas A&M 32.3
• UTSA 27.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• Texas A&M 13
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 64%

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.7, Alabama 19.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy actually likes the Vols to win a squeaker this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 11.6 points. His over/under, by the way, is 41.1, which is far below the over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

Hat Guy is home-field agnostic. A traditional 3-point bump for the home team would make Alabama a 1-point favorite with Hat Guy’s numbers. The only thing that causes concern is that Tennessee’s offensive premium is based on putting up strong numbers against overmatched teams. Against good defensive teams, there isn’t really a premium at all, which would put the Vols’ points right at Alabama’s average scoring defense of 16. That’s still a 3-point game, 6 if you add the home field advantage. But even under this scenario, the Vols still cover and are still within a touchdown of winning. So guts and eyeballs tell me Alabama 20, Tennessee 16.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Alabama 29, Tennessee 19 or . Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 28, 23 (Tide -4.9).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Alabama -9.5 (~Alabama 29, Tennessee 19)
• Vegas current: Alabama -8.5 (~Alabama 28, Tennessee 19)
• Hat Guy: Vols -2.1 (Tennessee 21.6, Alabama 19.5; Vols 22, Tide 20) (Alabama does not cover)
• SP+: Alabama – 4.9 (Alabama 28, Tennessee 23) (Alabama does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Alabama -4 (Alabama 20, Tennessee 16)

What do y’all think?

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Running the ball.

Where’s the danger?

Passing the ball, protecting the quarterback, first downs, third downs.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Run the ball. Pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional and hope that the Heuper Drive is finally fixed.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

SACK THE QUARTERBACK! Tennessee should be able to make the most of getting into Alabama’s backfield and either sacking the quarterback or tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, creating negative plays and putting the offense behind the chains. The numbers also make it look like the Vols defense should be in good shape against the Alabama offense in almost every category. They should be good against the run and the pass and good on first downs, third downs, and fourth downs.

Where’s the danger?

The red zone.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do their thing. Rack up the negative plays and make everybody on offense uncomfortable. Play solid defense both on the ground and through the air. Stop them early so they don’t get to the red zone and don’t let them have big chunk plays.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Not only is Tennessee good at returning punts, Alabama is not good at defending them. Points may be at a premium in this one, and getting a special teams score could again make a huge difference.

Where’s the danger?

Alabama’s kick returns. Net punting and field position favor Alabama.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Give Alabama an edge in turnovers and penalties.

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over Texas A&M.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Attaboys: Rushing offense, TFLs allowed.

Must improve: 4th down conversion %, passing yards per completion, passing offense, team passing efficiency, red zone offense, first downs offense, completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, scoring offense, total offense. Basically, the passing game is the thing weighing this offense down.

Defense

Link to table

Attaboys: This team is in the Top 30 in every defensive category except passes intercepted and red zone defense. They are elite in the havoc categories of sacks and TFLs, and they are in the Top 10 on first downs and fourth downs.

Special Teams

Link to table

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

There are so many stats to choose from to highlight the excellence of Tennessee’s defense on Saturday. But beyond just a single game, this one might speak best right now: at the halfway point of the 2023 campaign, Tennessee’s offense is ranked 18th in SP+.

The defense is ranked 15th.

Last year, the Vols finished second offensively in those ratings and 30th defensively. They were 7th and 47th in 2021. It’s a conversation we had both during and after last year’s 11-2 campaign: how good does a Tennessee defense need to be under Josh Heupel? Like, what’s good enough to win if the offense is going to score so many points?

Six games into this campaign, the questions about the defense have moved from floor to ceiling.

What’s good enough to win is, in fact, this defense when the offense is struggling. This defense, holding Texas A&M to 4.47 yards per play and 13 points.

In the second half, the Aggies went:

• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out
• Three-and-out, with the punt returned for a TD
• Field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 11
• Missed 50-yard field goal after having 1st-and-10 at the 37
• Interception
• Interception

In national ratings, the Tennessee defense is:

• 11th in rushing yards per carry allowed, 2.98
• 14th in passing yards per attempted allowed, 5.9
• 10th in yards per play allowed, 4.41
• One of four teams in the country averaging 4+ sacks per game
• One of five teams in the country averaging more than 8.5 TFLs per game
• 23rd in opponent third down conversion percentage, 32.3%
• 11th in opponent fourth down conversion percentage, 29.4%
• 13th in opponent TD% in the red zone, allowing just 7 TDs on 17 attempts (41.2%)

How does all of that compare to what we’ve seen in Heupel’s first 2.5 seasons?

And for the, “Ain’t played nobody (with a good offense)!” in the back, I’d submit that so far this year, ain’t nobody played nobody! The margins, they are quite thin.

Tennessee Opponents in SP+ Offense

• Georgia 8th
• South Carolina 17th
• Alabama 19th
• Missouri 22nd
• Florida 30th
• Texas A&M 39th
• Kentucky 43rd
• UTSA 58th
• Vanderbilt 64th
• Virginia 108th
• UConn 126th

That’s right: the already-vanquished Gamecocks of South Carolina currently boast the best non-defending-champs offense on Tennessee’s schedule. And they scored two touchdowns via a short field and a busted play.

This brings us to the next big question: will it travel? It was late arriving in Gainesville and missed the gate entirely at South Carolina last season. But it was ready and willing in Baton Rouge.

How much is a Top 15 defense worth in Tuscaloosa?

Go Vols.

The No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the unranked but essentially even Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. I have no idea why you would be lacking motivation for this one, but just in case, take this medicine:

Also, if you’re interested and can tolerate helpful advice from a Georgia fan without getting the shakes, here are some tips on how to watch college football while listening to homer broadcasts. Don’t worry, there is nothing there rhyming with Bob Fail Root. Or maybe I intentionally tuned it out.

The rest of the day, we’re pretty much rooting for anyone ranked No. 16 or above to lose, with the exception of Alabama because we want their resume to be spotless if/when we beat them and we don’t need them to have an additional loss for a cushion. For the purists, you can also root for Georgia to continuing winning until they come to Knoxville, but in doing so, you need to expect the Vols to run the table. If the Vols lose against Alabama (or anyone else in the SEC), beating Georgia wouldn’t matter because of the Vols’ prior loss to Florida. Me, I’m rooting for insurance. Not that it’s going to matter today, really, because Georgia’s got Vanderbilt at noon.

In addition to Alabama and Georgia, the noon slate features three other teams ranked in the Top 11. They’re also not likely to lose, but noon upsets are a thing and these would be good for the Vols. A Top 10 matchup between No. 8 Oregon and No. 7 Washington will take the national spotlight away from the Vols-Aggies at 3:30, but we’ll be locked in on Tennessee.

The evening slate features three Top 25 matchups, headlined by No. 9 USC at No. 10 Notre Dame. More relevant to Vols fans is No. 21 Missouri vs. No. 20 Kentucky. I don’t know that any of those helps or hurts the Vols, but they should be good entertainment.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 14, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

In trusty SP+, this is about as good as it gets: Texas A&M is 13th nationally in those ratings, 16.9 points better than the average team. The Vols are right behind them at 14th and 16.6. On a neutral field, the Aggies would be favored by 0.3 points.

In FPI, Texas A&M would be favored by 1.0 on a neutral field; the Aggies are 15th and the Vols 17th. I’ve really come to enjoy Kelley Ford’s ratings and visuals – there the Vols would be favored by 0.2 points on a neutral field, Tennessee 15th and A&M 16th. You get the idea.

The game, of course, will be played in Knoxville, and that means it’s -3 for the Vols in Vegas as of 6:20 Saturday morning. We will indeed see just how much Knoxville is worth in a few hours.

This will be the fifth game of Josh Heupel’s tenure played in toss-up range, with the line at +/- 3. (An honorable mention to the 2021 Pittsburgh game, which closed at Vols +3.5.)

There’s actually a nice trend in these games in Heupel’s tenure, with the lines squeaking ever so slightly in Tennessee’s favor:

• 2021 at Missouri +2.5, won 62-24 – the definitive “hello there” performance, which was followed by a 35-0 lead on South Carolina, which set up what became the first of many enormous football games…
• 2021 Ole Miss +1.5, lost 31-26 – the Vols just missed their first real opportunity to get a ranked win under Heupel…
• 2021 Kentucky -1, won 45-42 – but not the second
• 2022 LSU -2.5, won 40-13 – a mammoth, program-changing performance that was then eclipsed by an even more mammoth, even more program-changing one seven days later

Heupel is 4-3 in one-possession games at Tennessee, and 3-1 in these toss-ups…where, obviously, two of them got very un-toss-up shortly after kickoff.

Historically, he also caught these earlier than his predecessors. Missouri was game five of his first season; the aforementioned Pitt game was week two. Jeremy Pruitt was +3 against the Gators at home in his fourth game. Butch Jones didn’t see a line of less than seven points either way until the Vanderbilt/Kentucky closer in his first season. And Derek Dooley’s first team didn’t see a single-digit line until November! That was -2 against Ole Miss, a game Tyler Bray and the Vols won 52-14. It was Tennessee’s best performance against the spread until that Mizzou game two years ago.

The question then becomes, what do you do from there? Going back through Phil Steele’s against the spread data, I’ve got Phillip Fulmer at 25-15 in his career in games between +/- 3 at kickoff. That’s pretty good! He was also especially good from 2003-07, when the Vols might not have had such a decisive talent advantage compared to the 90s. At the moment, 2023’s closest historical comparisons in SP+ are the 1991 (Miracle at South Bend) and 2003 Vol squads, the latter of which split the SEC East three ways with Florida and Georgia. From 2003-07, Fulmer went 13-7 in Vegas toss-ups, including a ridiculous 8-2 in 2006 and 2007.

The house usually wins; there’s not much shame in toss-ups behaving exactly that way. Johnny Majors was 3-3-1 at UT in these games during his last four seasons, including a pair of SEC Championships. The best news for Tennessee is what kind of games you’re getting into toss-up range now. Much like LSU last year – much like South Carolina two weeks ago – this one can also serve as a gateway to something even more next Saturday. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to get in +3 territory in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens today. But considering our last three trips to Tuscaloosa went +24.5, +34, and +36? All of this continues to head in the right direction…and the Vols, of course, beat Bama last year at +9.

Today, all signs point to even in what should be a great day for college football. This Tennessee team has no unique experience in a really close game; if we’re just going by possessions, A&M played their first one-possession game last Saturday by virtue of a late field goal and a failed onside kick.

But both teams are already tested in meaningful games.

And there’s plenty of that to go around today.

Go Vols.