Category Archives: Football

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Most places on offense, primarily on the ground.

Where’s the danger?

Protecting the quarterback.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Lean on the strength of the offense, which is running the ball. And as always, pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Rushing defense, creating havoc in the Tigers’ backfield, both through sacks and TFLs.

Where’s the danger?

Pass defense and red zone defense.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Rob the rush defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. Contain Missouri’s quarterback, who can turn bad plays into good one with his legs. Derail them early to try to keep them out of the red zone.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

This would be a really good game to return another punt for a touchdown. The opportunity is there.

Where’s the danger?

There doesn’t appear to be much danger here.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Missouri’s good at protecting the ball, but not so good at creating turnovers. Tennessee needs to not help them this weekend. Expect both teams to give each other yards and opportunities via penalties.

If you’re looking for an orange-tinted case for the 12-team playoff, Saturday is about as good as it gets: #13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri would serve as a play-in opportunity of sorts, championship implications for both teams. It would be one of the most meaningful games Tennessee has ever played in mid-November, so often headlined by Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

But you also don’t have to wait a year for high stakes football two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Two things have happened in Knoxville the last three years:

• The Georgia game was moved to November, ensuring a late-season opportunity for a meaningful win. Georgia’s own ascent as potential three-peat champs added all kinds of obvious fuel here.
• Josh Heupel’s arrival has led to Tennessee going 25-10 in his first 35 games after going 78-82 from 2008-2020. The Vols are in the Top 15 with three weeks to go for the second year in a row. The last time that happened in back-to-back seasons was 2003-2004.

Putting Tennessee’s own success aside for a moment, consider the rarity of the big mid-November game around here. Since the AP poll expanded to a Top 25 in 1989, the Vols have faced a ranked opponent in the last three weeks of the season just 13 times. One of those was the December 2001 clash between Tennessee and Florida, postponed from September 11. Two more came in the covid season. And one other came after Butch Jones was let go in 2017, when Brady Hoke led the Vols against #20 LSU.

That leaves just nine games built into Tennessee’s schedule that brought this kind of opportunity this late in the season:

• Two years ago, the Vols fought but fell to #1 Georgia 41-17.
• In 2018, maybe what was ultimately the biggest win for Jeremy Pruitt, 24-7 over #12 Kentucky. The Vols moved to 5-5 and had to beat either Missouri or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible, but lost to both by a combined 58 points.
• Missouri again in 2014, the eventual East champs after a 29-21 win in Knoxville. The #19 Tigers were the first of six one-possession losses in an 18-6 run from November 2014 to October 2016 after Josh Dobbs became the full-time starter. Ever heard of him?
• A pair of out-of-our-league losses to Auburn in 2013 and at Arkansas in 2011, two teams who finished in the top five.
• In 2006, with Erik Ainge still recovering from injury (and a week after losing to #13 LSU in the final seconds to start the last four weeks of the season), the Vols fell 31-14 at #11 Arkansas.
• The vaunted 1998 Arkansas game.
• The vaunted SP+ world champions of Knoxville in 1993, who smoked #13 Louisville 45-10.
• A gritty 22-13 win at #15 Ole Miss for Johnny Majors in 1990 to keep the Vols on pace for an eventual SEC Championship.

We’ve been far more accustomed to finding meaning in bowl eligibility this late in the season in the last 15 or so years. Now, it’s the first of two Top 15 opponents in the last three weeks of the season, with the Vols right alongside.

When Tennessee and Missouri kick-off at 3:30, everything will still be on the table. You know by now the one path to Atlanta: Vols over Missouri, Ole Miss over Georgia, Vols over Georgia next Saturday. That path, while narrow, could still lead to the college football playoff. If the most important question is, “Are we in the hunt?”, this team has positioned themselves to say yes, even in the last year of four-team world.

Georgia’s credit is also Tennessee’s opportunity: even if the Dawgs secure the SEC East on Saturday night, you’ll find no shortage of meaning in Neyland Stadium next week. Aside from playing for a potential New Year’s Six opportunity – the first time the Vols went back-to-back in the BCS or NY6 since 1998-1999 – a win against this Georgia run would be one of the biggest regular season victories Tennessee has enjoyed in our lifetimes.

The schedule is opportunistic; maybe there will be more Novembers like this going forward.

But Tennessee has been the biggest factor in its own equation, as it should be. The opponents are big. But the Vols have been big enough to make these moments matter for all involved.

No. 17 Tennessee travels to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats tonight at 7:00 on ESPN. Also of interest to Vols fans is the World’s Largest Whatever between No. 1 Georgia and unranked Florida at 3:30 on CBS. Root for Florida in that one and then for them to lose two games over the next few weeks. Top 25 matchups in the afternoon slot include No. 9 Oregon and No. 14 Utah on Fox and No. 16 Duke at No. 21 Louisville on ESPN.

If you have nothing else to do, you can ease into the day with a matchup of former foes South Carolina and Texas A&M at noon on ESPN.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 28, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.

Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy

From Kentucky’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 20
• Missouri 23.3
• Georgia 14
• Ball State 29

Kentucky’s points against those teams:

• Florida 33
• Missouri 21
• Georgia 13
• Ball State 44

Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 33.9
• Florida 29.1
• Vanderbilt 27.8
• Georgia 40.1

Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 38
• Florida 14
• Vanderbilt 28
• Georgia 51

Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%

Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6

From Tennessee’s perspective

Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 25.1
• Florida 20
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Alabama 16.5

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Florida 16
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%

Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Alabama 30.6
• Texas A&M 32.3
• Florida 29.1
• UTSA 29

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Alabama 34
• Texas A&M 13
• Florida 29
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
• Vegas current: Same
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)

What do y’all think?

A year from now, conversations about #21 Tennessee would start with, “Okay, we’re nine spots out of the playoff.”

There are always opportunities to improve one’s resume in the SEC, and that’s especially true for the Vols this season. In these changing rhythms, consider this:

• Alabama was the first ranked opponent Tennessee faced. The last time the Vols didn’t play a ranked foe until October was 1982.
• The Vols should play two ranked opponents in the last three games of the regular season (#16 Missouri, #1 Georgia). The last time the Vols played two ranked foes in the last three games (non-pandemic) was 1958!

Between here and there is Kentucky: one of the reasons the Vols didn’t close with ranked foes for a long time, but currently riding seven straight years of bowl eligibility. The Cats started hot, then cooled immediately: beat Florida by 19, lost to Georgia and Missouri by a combined 55.

Everyone is more human this season. In SP+, the only breakaway team is the one at the center of the controversy this week in Ann Arbor…and even they would be just fifth overall in last year’s ratings. Behind them are the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs, who this week would be about a six point favorite in Knoxville. Alabama is next, who the Vols just feel like they let get away in Tuscaloosa.

And in Lexington, the match-up is almost dead even in SP+.

This season is taking on the feel of some of those late Fulmer teams: when the margins are thinner, it feels like anything can happen. Sometimes you get November 2006, when multiple ranked teams got the best of a depleted Vol squad. Sometimes you get November 2007, when multiple unranked teams almost got the best of a young Vol squad…but Tennessee won the East.

That option, by the way, is still alive and well. When the two-time national champs look as mortal as they do, it’s not crazy to ask for a stub of the toe against Florida, Missouri, or Ole Miss. Any one of those (and additional losses from Florida if it’s the Gators) would set up November 18 as an SEC East title game, if the Vols can get there without another defeat. And if not, Tennessee would still get to take a shot at the number one team in the land.

There is incredibly meaningful football available in November, and not just next year in an expanded playoff field. To do that, the Vols have to finish October the way they started it. On the other side of frustration – for both the Vols and Kentucky – is an important football game. Move on, and you can keep moving on.

Go Vols.

No. 19 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama square off this afternoon in Tuscaloosa at 3:30. CBS has the broadcast. The only real competition for eyeballs at that time is No. 19 Washington State at No. 8 Oregon on ABC. Vols fans probably want to see the Cougars knock the Ducks down a peg in that one.

The day kicks off at noon with a Big 10 Top 10 matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State on Fox. And the evening slate features two Top 25 matchups in No. 17 Duke at No. 4 Florida State on ABC at 7:30 and No. 16 Utah at No. 10 USC at 8:00 on Fox. Root for the underdogs in those.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 21, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog to the Crimson Tide with an over/under of 48. As I write this, the Vols are now +8.5, and the over/under is 47.5. Hat Guy thinks it’s more of a coin flip.

Tennessee vs Alabama, according to Hat Guy

From Alabama’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas 16.3
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Mississippi 23.8
• Arkansas 25.1

Alabama’s points against those teams:

• Texas 24
• Texas A&M 26
• Mississippi 24
• Arkansas 24

Alabama’s offensive premium/discount: 115%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 32.3
• Mississippi State 30.2
• Texas 35
• Arkansas 29.9

Alabama’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Mississippi State 17
• Texas 34
• Arkansas 21

Alabama’s defensive premium/discount: 72%

Estimated score: Alabama 19.6, Tennessee 23.4

From Tennessee’s perspective

Alabama’s defense is allowing an average of 16 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas A&M 19.9
• Florida 20
• UTSA 27.7
• South Carolina 31.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 123%

Alabama’s offense is scoring an average of 30.1 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 29.1
• South Carolina 29
• Texas A&M 32.3
• UTSA 27.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• Texas A&M 13
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 64%

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.7, Alabama 19.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy actually likes the Vols to win a squeaker this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 11.6 points. His over/under, by the way, is 41.1, which is far below the over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

Hat Guy is home-field agnostic. A traditional 3-point bump for the home team would make Alabama a 1-point favorite with Hat Guy’s numbers. The only thing that causes concern is that Tennessee’s offensive premium is based on putting up strong numbers against overmatched teams. Against good defensive teams, there isn’t really a premium at all, which would put the Vols’ points right at Alabama’s average scoring defense of 16. That’s still a 3-point game, 6 if you add the home field advantage. But even under this scenario, the Vols still cover and are still within a touchdown of winning. So guts and eyeballs tell me Alabama 20, Tennessee 16.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Alabama 29, Tennessee 19 or . Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 28, 23 (Tide -4.9).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Alabama -9.5 (~Alabama 29, Tennessee 19)
• Vegas current: Alabama -8.5 (~Alabama 28, Tennessee 19)
• Hat Guy: Vols -2.1 (Tennessee 21.6, Alabama 19.5; Vols 22, Tide 20) (Alabama does not cover)
• SP+: Alabama – 4.9 (Alabama 28, Tennessee 23) (Alabama does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Alabama -4 (Alabama 20, Tennessee 16)

What do y’all think?

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Running the ball.

Where’s the danger?

Passing the ball, protecting the quarterback, first downs, third downs.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Run the ball. Pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional and hope that the Heuper Drive is finally fixed.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

SACK THE QUARTERBACK! Tennessee should be able to make the most of getting into Alabama’s backfield and either sacking the quarterback or tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, creating negative plays and putting the offense behind the chains. The numbers also make it look like the Vols defense should be in good shape against the Alabama offense in almost every category. They should be good against the run and the pass and good on first downs, third downs, and fourth downs.

Where’s the danger?

The red zone.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do their thing. Rack up the negative plays and make everybody on offense uncomfortable. Play solid defense both on the ground and through the air. Stop them early so they don’t get to the red zone and don’t let them have big chunk plays.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Not only is Tennessee good at returning punts, Alabama is not good at defending them. Points may be at a premium in this one, and getting a special teams score could again make a huge difference.

Where’s the danger?

Alabama’s kick returns. Net punting and field position favor Alabama.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Give Alabama an edge in turnovers and penalties.