Category Archives: Football

Here’s the same question in a different week: in a 12-team playoff, Saturday’s game would (still) mean even more.

It wouldn’t necessarily mean entirely less if you’re #1 Georgia; the Dawgs will likely need to go through Alabama either way. Losses in Knoxville and Atlanta would mean missing it all this year; losses in those two games next year might put Georgia on the road in the first round, etc.

But for #18 Tennessee and the quest for meaningful football – for being in the national conversation – this game would be not just an opportunity to beat number one, but play yourself back into fringe playoff talk.

“How can you say that after the way we lost to Missouri? We can’t seriously entertain beating Georgia now!”

Thanks for asking!

Saturday will be the 25th time the Vols play a Top 5 opponent in the post-Fulmer era, and the 12th time that opponent is ranked number one. As of Wednesday morning the Vols are +10.5 against Georgia.

It’s easy to forget because we won one of them and were ranked number one in the other, but that’s almost exactly where the Vols were when they played Alabama and Georgia last year, closing at +9.5 in both of those games.

And other than those two, +10.5 this week is as close as the Vols have been against the Top 5 in the post-Fulmer era (data via Phil Steele & covers.com).

Tennessee vs Top 5, 2009-2023

Even after the 36-7 loss at Missouri, these Vols have better odds against an elite team than any of their recent predecessors other than last season.

These wins are, by nature, very hard to come by. I use the Top 25 era a lot (1989-present), in part because it coincides with my own memories. In these 35 seasons, the Vols have ten Top 5 wins:

Tennessee Wins vs Top 5 in the Top 25 era (1989-present)

• 2022 vs #3 Alabama, 52-49
• 2005 at #3 LSU, 30-27 (OT)
• 2004 at #3 Georgia, 19-14
• 2001 at #2 Florida, 34-32
• 1998 vs #2 Florida, 20-17 (OT)
• 1998 vs #2 Florida State, 23-16
• 1995 vs #4 Ohio State, 20-14
• 1992 vs #4 Florida, 31-14
• 1991 at #5 Notre Dame, 35-34
• 1989 vs #4 Auburn, 21-14

In these past 35 seasons, the Vols have played a Top 5 opponent 53 times. They’ve been favored just three times…and lost all three:

• 1990 vs #1 Notre Dame in Knoxville with the Vols ranked #9, one of the best football games I’ve ever seen. Tennessee was -3 and lost 34-29 on an interception in the end zone.
• 1996 vs #4 Florida in front of a record-breaking NCAA crowd. The Gators scored the game’s first 35 points before a Tennessee comeback fell short 35-29; Tennessee was -3.
• 2005 vs #5 Georgia, two weeks after The Rally at Death Valley. With the quarterback situation still unresolved, the Dawgs won 27-14 with Tennessee at -3.

Wins against this level of competition are rare and almost never predictable. But this Tennessee team, even after last week, has a better opportunity than we’re used to seeing around here in the last 15 years. It could still mean everything a year from now. And it would absolutely define this season in the present.

I’m excited to see what we’ll do with it.

Go Vols.

When the lines opened this week, Tennessee was a 1-point favorite over Missouri with an over/under of 59. Currently, it is -1.5 and 57.5. Hat Guy agrees that it’s going to be close, but he likes the Vols to win and cover. Here’s why.

Missouri vs Tennessee, according to Hat Guy

From Missouri’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 18.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Kansas State 17.8
• Georgia 15.4
• Kentucky 22.3
• Memphis 27.9
• LSU 28.2
• Middle Tennessee 30.9

Missouri’s points against those teams:

• Kansas State 30
• Georgia 21
• Kentucky 38
• Memphis 34
• LSU 39
• Middle Tennessee 23

Missouri’s offensive premium/discount: 130%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 34.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Kansas State 36.6
• Memphis 39.2
• Georgia 39.3
• Kentucky 30
• South Carolina 26.8
• Vanderbilt 24.4

Missouri’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Kansas State 27
• Memphis 27
• Georgia 30
• Kentucky 21
• South Carolina 12
• Vanderbilt 21

Missouri’s defensive premium/discount: 70%

Estimated score: Missouri 24, Tennessee 24.3

From Tennessee’s perspective

Missouri’s defense is allowing an average of 24 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 24.7
• Kentucky 22.3
• UTSA 25.8
• Texas A&M 21.6
• Alabama 17.8
• South Carolina 31.1

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Florida 16
• Kentucky 33
• UTSA 45
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20
• South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 122%

Missouri’s offense is scoring an average of 32.4 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 32.3
• Alabama 31.9
• UTSA 31.2
• Kentucky 30
• Florida 28.9
• South Carolina 26.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 13
• Alabama 34
• UTSA 14
• Kentucky 27
• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 76%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.3, Missouri 24.7

Combined Estimated Score

As I’ve said before, Hat Guy is home-field agnostic, so if you disagree with that, then it’s basically a pick ’em. But Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend, although nobody’s feeling particularly good about these margins. Hat Guy does like the under.

Guts and Eyeballs

In Week 11 now, Hat Guy moved from four to six comps. I’m a bit uncomfortable with the fifth and sixth comps from each perspective, but using only four comps produces essentially the same result: Vols -2.1. Two comps results in Missouri -1.2. All comps turns Tennessee into a touchdown favorite.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of Tennessee 30, Missouri 29. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 26 (Vols -2.2).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -1 (Vols 30, Tigers 29)
• Vegas current: Tennessee -1.5 (~Vols 30, Tigers 28)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -2.4 (Vols 27, Tigers 24) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -2.2 (Vols 29, Tigers 26) (Vols cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Nauseous and blurry (Tennessee -6; Vols 30, Tigers 24)

What do y’all think?

The No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers Saturday afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Assuming that one goes as hoped, the game between No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 2 Georgia right afterward at 7:00 on ESPN will be nearly as important to Vols fans.

Gameday kicks off at noon on Fox with the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines traveling to No. 10 Penn State. If you’re a multi-tasker, there’s a Top 20 matchup between No. 18 Utah and No. 5 Washington on at the same time as the Vols in the afternoon slot. Pull for the Utes in that one in case it matters. And if you still have the energy, there’s an opportunity for USC to knock off No. 6 Oregon at 10:30 on Fox.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 11, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Most places on offense, primarily on the ground.

Where’s the danger?

Protecting the quarterback.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Lean on the strength of the offense, which is running the ball. And as always, pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Rushing defense, creating havoc in the Tigers’ backfield, both through sacks and TFLs.

Where’s the danger?

Pass defense and red zone defense.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Rob the rush defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. Contain Missouri’s quarterback, who can turn bad plays into good one with his legs. Derail them early to try to keep them out of the red zone.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

This would be a really good game to return another punt for a touchdown. The opportunity is there.

Where’s the danger?

There doesn’t appear to be much danger here.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Missouri’s good at protecting the ball, but not so good at creating turnovers. Tennessee needs to not help them this weekend. Expect both teams to give each other yards and opportunities via penalties.

If you’re looking for an orange-tinted case for the 12-team playoff, Saturday is about as good as it gets: #13 Tennessee at #14 Missouri would serve as a play-in opportunity of sorts, championship implications for both teams. It would be one of the most meaningful games Tennessee has ever played in mid-November, so often headlined by Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

But you also don’t have to wait a year for high stakes football two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Two things have happened in Knoxville the last three years:

• The Georgia game was moved to November, ensuring a late-season opportunity for a meaningful win. Georgia’s own ascent as potential three-peat champs added all kinds of obvious fuel here.
• Josh Heupel’s arrival has led to Tennessee going 25-10 in his first 35 games after going 78-82 from 2008-2020. The Vols are in the Top 15 with three weeks to go for the second year in a row. The last time that happened in back-to-back seasons was 2003-2004.

Putting Tennessee’s own success aside for a moment, consider the rarity of the big mid-November game around here. Since the AP poll expanded to a Top 25 in 1989, the Vols have faced a ranked opponent in the last three weeks of the season just 13 times. One of those was the December 2001 clash between Tennessee and Florida, postponed from September 11. Two more came in the covid season. And one other came after Butch Jones was let go in 2017, when Brady Hoke led the Vols against #20 LSU.

That leaves just nine games built into Tennessee’s schedule that brought this kind of opportunity this late in the season:

• Two years ago, the Vols fought but fell to #1 Georgia 41-17.
• In 2018, maybe what was ultimately the biggest win for Jeremy Pruitt, 24-7 over #12 Kentucky. The Vols moved to 5-5 and had to beat either Missouri or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible, but lost to both by a combined 58 points.
• Missouri again in 2014, the eventual East champs after a 29-21 win in Knoxville. The #19 Tigers were the first of six one-possession losses in an 18-6 run from November 2014 to October 2016 after Josh Dobbs became the full-time starter. Ever heard of him?
• A pair of out-of-our-league losses to Auburn in 2013 and at Arkansas in 2011, two teams who finished in the top five.
• In 2006, with Erik Ainge still recovering from injury (and a week after losing to #13 LSU in the final seconds to start the last four weeks of the season), the Vols fell 31-14 at #11 Arkansas.
• The vaunted 1998 Arkansas game.
• The vaunted SP+ world champions of Knoxville in 1993, who smoked #13 Louisville 45-10.
• A gritty 22-13 win at #15 Ole Miss for Johnny Majors in 1990 to keep the Vols on pace for an eventual SEC Championship.

We’ve been far more accustomed to finding meaning in bowl eligibility this late in the season in the last 15 or so years. Now, it’s the first of two Top 15 opponents in the last three weeks of the season, with the Vols right alongside.

When Tennessee and Missouri kick-off at 3:30, everything will still be on the table. You know by now the one path to Atlanta: Vols over Missouri, Ole Miss over Georgia, Vols over Georgia next Saturday. That path, while narrow, could still lead to the college football playoff. If the most important question is, “Are we in the hunt?”, this team has positioned themselves to say yes, even in the last year of four-team world.

Georgia’s credit is also Tennessee’s opportunity: even if the Dawgs secure the SEC East on Saturday night, you’ll find no shortage of meaning in Neyland Stadium next week. Aside from playing for a potential New Year’s Six opportunity – the first time the Vols went back-to-back in the BCS or NY6 since 1998-1999 – a win against this Georgia run would be one of the biggest regular season victories Tennessee has enjoyed in our lifetimes.

The schedule is opportunistic; maybe there will be more Novembers like this going forward.

But Tennessee has been the biggest factor in its own equation, as it should be. The opponents are big. But the Vols have been big enough to make these moments matter for all involved.

No. 17 Tennessee travels to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats tonight at 7:00 on ESPN. Also of interest to Vols fans is the World’s Largest Whatever between No. 1 Georgia and unranked Florida at 3:30 on CBS. Root for Florida in that one and then for them to lose two games over the next few weeks. Top 25 matchups in the afternoon slot include No. 9 Oregon and No. 14 Utah on Fox and No. 16 Duke at No. 21 Louisville on ESPN.

If you have nothing else to do, you can ease into the day with a matchup of former foes South Carolina and Texas A&M at noon on ESPN.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 28, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.

Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy

From Kentucky’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 20
• Missouri 23.3
• Georgia 14
• Ball State 29

Kentucky’s points against those teams:

• Florida 33
• Missouri 21
• Georgia 13
• Ball State 44

Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 33.9
• Florida 29.1
• Vanderbilt 27.8
• Georgia 40.1

Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 38
• Florida 14
• Vanderbilt 28
• Georgia 51

Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%

Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6

From Tennessee’s perspective

Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 25.1
• Florida 20
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Alabama 16.5

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Florida 16
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%

Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Alabama 30.6
• Texas A&M 32.3
• Florida 29.1
• UTSA 29

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Alabama 34
• Texas A&M 13
• Florida 29
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
• Vegas current: Same
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)

What do y’all think?

A year from now, conversations about #21 Tennessee would start with, “Okay, we’re nine spots out of the playoff.”

There are always opportunities to improve one’s resume in the SEC, and that’s especially true for the Vols this season. In these changing rhythms, consider this:

• Alabama was the first ranked opponent Tennessee faced. The last time the Vols didn’t play a ranked foe until October was 1982.
• The Vols should play two ranked opponents in the last three games of the regular season (#16 Missouri, #1 Georgia). The last time the Vols played two ranked foes in the last three games (non-pandemic) was 1958!

Between here and there is Kentucky: one of the reasons the Vols didn’t close with ranked foes for a long time, but currently riding seven straight years of bowl eligibility. The Cats started hot, then cooled immediately: beat Florida by 19, lost to Georgia and Missouri by a combined 55.

Everyone is more human this season. In SP+, the only breakaway team is the one at the center of the controversy this week in Ann Arbor…and even they would be just fifth overall in last year’s ratings. Behind them are the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs, who this week would be about a six point favorite in Knoxville. Alabama is next, who the Vols just feel like they let get away in Tuscaloosa.

And in Lexington, the match-up is almost dead even in SP+.

This season is taking on the feel of some of those late Fulmer teams: when the margins are thinner, it feels like anything can happen. Sometimes you get November 2006, when multiple ranked teams got the best of a depleted Vol squad. Sometimes you get November 2007, when multiple unranked teams almost got the best of a young Vol squad…but Tennessee won the East.

That option, by the way, is still alive and well. When the two-time national champs look as mortal as they do, it’s not crazy to ask for a stub of the toe against Florida, Missouri, or Ole Miss. Any one of those (and additional losses from Florida if it’s the Gators) would set up November 18 as an SEC East title game, if the Vols can get there without another defeat. And if not, Tennessee would still get to take a shot at the number one team in the land.

There is incredibly meaningful football available in November, and not just next year in an expanded playoff field. To do that, the Vols have to finish October the way they started it. On the other side of frustration – for both the Vols and Kentucky – is an important football game. Move on, and you can keep moving on.

Go Vols.