Tennessee-Kentucky, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.

Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy

From Kentucky’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 20
• Missouri 23.3
• Georgia 14
• Ball State 29

Kentucky’s points against those teams:

• Florida 33
• Missouri 21
• Georgia 13
• Ball State 44

Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 33.9
• Florida 29.1
• Vanderbilt 27.8
• Georgia 40.1

Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 38
• Florida 14
• Vanderbilt 28
• Georgia 51

Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%

Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6

From Tennessee’s perspective

Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 25.1
• Florida 20
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Alabama 16.5

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Florida 16
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%

Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Alabama 30.6
• Texas A&M 32.3
• Florida 29.1
• UTSA 29

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Alabama 34
• Texas A&M 13
• Florida 29
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Kentucky	24.2	Tennessee	30.4	Tennessee	-6.2	144.6	156.7	160.1	229.8

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
• Vegas current: Same
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)

What do y’all think?