Tennessee-Missouri, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

When the lines opened this week, Tennessee was a 1-point favorite over Missouri with an over/under of 59. Currently, it is -1.5 and 57.5. Hat Guy agrees that it’s going to be close, but he likes the Vols to win and cover. Here’s why.

Missouri vs Tennessee, according to Hat Guy

From Missouri’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 18.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Kansas State 17.8
  • Georgia 15.4
  • Kentucky 22.3
  • Memphis 27.9
  • LSU 28.2
  • Middle Tennessee 30.9

Missouri’s points against those teams:

  • Kansas State 30
  • Georgia 21
  • Kentucky 38
  • Memphis 34
  • LSU 39
  • Middle Tennessee 23

Missouri’s offensive premium/discount: 130%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 34.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Kansas State 36.6
  • Memphis 39.2
  • Georgia 39.3
  • Kentucky 30
  • South Carolina 26.8
  • Vanderbilt 24.4

Missouri’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Kansas State 27
  • Memphis 27
  • Georgia 30
  • Kentucky 21
  • South Carolina 12
  • Vanderbilt 21

Missouri’s defensive premium/discount: 70%

Estimated score: Missouri 24, Tennessee 24.3

From Tennessee’s perspective

Missouri’s defense is allowing an average of 24 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Florida 24.7
  • Kentucky 22.3
  • UTSA 25.8
  • Texas A&M 21.6
  • Alabama 17.8
  • South Carolina 31.1

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

  • Florida 16
  • Kentucky 33
  • UTSA 45
  • Texas A&M 20
  • Alabama 20
  • South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 122%

Missouri’s offense is scoring an average of 32.4 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Texas A&M 32.3
  • Alabama 31.9
  • UTSA 31.2
  • Kentucky 30
  • Florida 28.9
  • South Carolina 26.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Texas A&M 13
  • Alabama 34
  • UTSA 14
  • Kentucky 27
  • Florida 29
  • South Carolina 20

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 76%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.3, Missouri 24.7

Combined Estimated Score

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Missouri24.4Tennessee26.8Tennessee-2.4100.8192.8252.1240.3

As I’ve said before, Hat Guy is home-field agnostic, so if you disagree with that, then it’s basically a pick ’em. But Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend, although nobody’s feeling particularly good about these margins. Hat Guy does like the under.

Guts and Eyeballs

In Week 11 now, Hat Guy moved from four to six comps. I’m a bit uncomfortable with the fifth and sixth comps from each perspective, but using only four comps produces essentially the same result: Vols -2.1. Two comps results in Missouri -1.2. All comps turns Tennessee into a touchdown favorite.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of Tennessee 30, Missouri 29. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 26 (Vols -2.2).

Bottom line

  • Vegas opening: Tennessee -1 (Vols 30, Tigers 29)
  • Vegas current: Tennessee -1.5 (~Vols 30, Tigers 28)
  • Hat Guy: Tennessee -2.4 (Vols 27, Tigers 24) (Vols cover)
  • SP+: Tennessee -2.2 (Vols 29, Tigers 26) (Vols cover)
  • Guts and Eyeballs: Nauseous and blurry (Tennessee -6; Vols 30, Tigers 24)

What do y’all think?

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Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
3 months ago

I like us by just a few points. I hope we show up like we did at Kentucky and not like we did at Florida.

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
3 months ago

Unfortunately, Swamp-Tennessee showed up instead of Bluegrass-Tennessee